Ukraine Invasion: Part 27

[MagicFox]

27th thread, thanks for the continued company and analysis all

Speaking as someone who is not born in the UK, Boris does have a superficial charm leveraging the mop head quintessential British stereotype of a lovable bumbling gent. He is probably getting the credit for the goodwill from years of UK MOD investment in training the Ukraine forces. He also rallied strongly around Ukraine from the get go and in turn was the standard bearer for other countries to follow suit, even if his delivery and implementation can be somewhat shit.

Ukraine needs that unstinting years of public school entitlement confidence to keep the West together. Boris delivers on that.

Just my unscientific observation. I am glad Ukraine is getting comfort from Boris still being in power. They deserve the morale boost any which way they can get it.

@notimagain
I don't think we're going to see parallels with what happened to equipment in Afghanistan, from what I've seen the Ukrainians tend to be very tech savvy, but if they've only done a very brief training course or perhaps none at all I'm also not surprised they've had to resort to Google.....

That’s why it is a shame the article didn’t make it clear how different Ukrainians are from the Afghan army - how committed, dedicated and quick to learn.

Let us hope that instead of hesitating to send help to Ukraine as a result of the article, where necessary, some pragmatic ways are found to help them learn quickly, - one to one zoom tutorials, translated manuals?

The article seemed to dwell on one main case where the was soldier was having to try to work something out. It never continued to show other examples where the those using it had mastered the principles, so it is not easy to get a fair picture. Those in US who are anti- Ukraine may seize on it sadly.

In haste, my Bolding

Op-ed: The New Russian Offensive Is Intended to Project Power It Cannot Sustain
Jun 7, 2022 - Press ISW

By Frederick W. Kagan

The fight for Severodonetsk is a Russian information operation in the form of a battle. One of its main purposes for Moscow is to create the impression that Russia has regained its strength and will now overwhelm Ukraine. That impression is false. The Russian military in Ukraine is increasingly a spent force that cannot achieve a decisive victory if Ukrainians hold on.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is therefore trying to turn his invasion of Ukraine into a brutal contest of wills. He’s betting his army on breaking Ukrainians’ collective will to fight on in their country. His own won’t likely break. Fortunately, Ukraine doesn’t need it to. If Ukrainians can weather the current Russian storm and then counterattack the exhausted Russian forces they still have every chance to free their people and all their land.

Putin amassed the wreckage of Russian combat forces into a lethal amalgam around the cities of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk Oblast. That amalgam is crawling forward using massive artillery barrages to obliterate everything in its path allowing Russia’s demoralized and frightened soldiers to walk into the rubble.

Click here to read the full op-ed on TIME's website.

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Key Takeaways

Russian forces have likely established control over the majority of the residential sector of Severodonetsk and conducted assaults against Ukrainian positions in the industrial zone in the past 24 hours. The operational environment within the city remains fluid.

Russian forces continued efforts to advance on Slovyansk southeast from the Izyum area and west from Lyman, attempting to break through Ukrainian defenses that have halted most direct frontal assaults from Izyum.

Russian forces are likely attempting to reinforce their operations in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area from both the Toshkivka-Ustynivka area in the south and Kupyansk from the northwest.

Russian forces began withdrawing troops from positions in Zaporizhia Oblast, likely either to rotate damaged units into rear areas or to reinforce Russian defenses in northwestern Kherson Oblast, though ISW cannot currently confirm the destination of these forces.

Russian forces failed to regain advanced positions on the western (now Ukrainian-occupied) bank of the Ihulets River on June 7.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russian forces restored transit connections between newly occupied cities and Crimea.

Russian occupation authorities continue to face challenges suppressing Ukrainian resistance and finding partisan supporters despite increasingly draconian occupation measures and attempts to bribe Ukrainian civilians.

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cant remember if I posted this yesterday but it's breathtaking in a bad way:

❗️Impressive cynicism

In Mariupol, the invaders held a concert near the ruins of the Mariupol Drama Theatre. Dancing on the bones and pain – what could be more horrible?
On March 16, Russian invaders dropped a powerful bomb on the Mariupol Drama Theatre. More than a thousand civilians, mostly women and children, hid in the theater's bomb shelter. A large inscription "Children" was painted on the square in front of the theater, but this did not stop the enemy aircraft.
Now it is on this square that the invaders are holding a concert

🌾 Russian invaders continue stealing Ukrainian grain
Trains began to move from Melitopol towards Crimea, the occupying "authorities" of the city reported.

🍉 The invaders continue to block farmers' trucks in Vasylivka, Zaporizhzhia Region
Due to huge queues and the heat, drivers are forced to simply throw away rotting vegetables.

🇺🇦 The Armed Forces of Ukraine are bravely holding back an assault by the Russian military in Sievierodonetsk.

⚡️Reuters: Russia transfers over 1,000 Ukrainian troops that surrendered in Mariupol onto its territory.

⚡️World Bank approves $1.49 billion in funds for Ukraine.

⚡️VOA: US and allies are working on supplying Ukraine with anti-ship missiles.
A White House official confirmed to Voice of America that the U.S. will provide Ukraine with unmanned coastal defense vessels and is looking into providing long range anti-ship missiles which could help Ukraine regain control of portions of the northwestern Black Sea.

⚡️Zelensky: Ukraine to launch ‘Book of Executioners’ to detail war crimes.

⚡️Institute for the Study of War: Kremlin’s efforts to censor information about deceased troops exacerbates domestic tensions.
The U.S. think tank said in its latest June 7 assessment citing the Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate that the Kremlin reportedly assigned lawyers and psychologists to work with families of personnel of the sunken cruiser Moskva.
Their aim is to convince the families to refrain from disclosing any information regarding the deaths of their relatives in an effort to crush rising social tensions in Russia.

The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
Several units of Russia’s military equipment and ammunition depots were destroyed. The number of killed Russian soldiers is not available at the moment.

The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
·
8h
⚡️European Parliament to recommend EU leaders to grant Ukraine candidate status.

M Mouse
@MMouse44073558
·
1m
Russian forces are likely attempting to reinforce their operations in the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area from both the Toshkivka-Ustynivka area in the south and Kupyansk from the northwest.

The Moscow Times
@MoscowTimes
·
5h
A dozen Russian officers have been prosecuted for sending hundreds of young conscript soldiers to fight in Ukraine, a military prosecutor announced.

(hard not to laugh cynically, since they are forcibly conscripting Donetsk teachers, cleaners, lawyers and sending them in as cannon fodder)

The Moscow Times
@MoscowTimes
·
9h
Vladimir Gabrielyan died less than three months after joining the VK internet giant’s board of directors. [shades of the murdered Gazprom executives]

Interesting article on Russia targetting an investigative journalist who worked exposing FSB purges www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/07/russia-places-top-investigative-journalist-on-federal-wanted-list-a77923

:( the Severetdonesk gains have been lost :

ISW
@TheStudyofWar
·
6h
Eastern #Ukraine Update:

#Russian forces have likely established control over the majority of the residential sector of #Severodonetsk and conducted assaults against Ukrainian positions in the industrial zone on June 7.
isw.pub/RusCampaignJun

Euan MacDonald AT euan_macdonald
"The next 4-6 weeks will be very difficult. It's an avalanche of fire. The Russians are demolishing all in their path with artillery, and infantry is already entering the ruins. Ukraine's army needs to survive and buy time." MP Serhiy Rakhmanin on the situation in Luhansk Oblast.

Trent Telenko
@TrentTelenko

· 7h
Spain has announced it is supplying Ukraine ~40 KMW Leopard 2A4 MBTs & undisclosed number of Aspide (AIM-7 derivative) SHORADS.

Six Aspide batteries were in mothballs.

They are well suited to cruise missile defense of Ukrainian urban areas.
1/3
Show t

Ukraine NOW [English], [08/06/2022 10:50]
[ Photo ]
✨In Chernihiv, Boris Johnson was initiated into the Cossacks - the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom became Borys Chupryna

A diploma certifying this will be sent to London.

Nooooooooooooooo Ukraine NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.

Pass the eyebleach.

Aspide (AIM-7 derivative) SHORADS. Six Aspide batteries were in mothballs.
They are well suited to cruise missile defense of Ukrainian urban areas.

For context I worked with basic AIM-7s (aka Sparrow in NATO terms) and a derivative with an improved seeker head, much as Aspide has, about forty years ago, .

Be interesting to see how well suited they are to the cruise missiles the Russians are currently using...

I believe there's also some concern being expressed about the age of at least some of the Leopard MBTs Spain are providing.

Re Wales, I think there are significant parallels, as a small nation invaded and appressed by a large aggressive neighbour.

Wales is also a distinct nation with its own culture and language. Yes, there were attempts, suprisingly recent ones, to discourage people from using their first language. My grandmother would have been fined a penny for speaking Welsh in school. Her family had 9 children and it was a challenge to feed them; they did not have social security help then (in the early years of the last century) and they did not have spare pennies. She remembered this as an outrage.

Regarding the Welsh borders, my grandmother had a keen interest in the way that Welsh maps had changed over the centuries, with the Welsh portion whittled back as the years went by. The borders are fairly stable at the current time, but have been hugely disputed in the past.

I was interested that a statue was put up to William Marshall recently, who centuries ago was a key player in England's suppression of its Welsh neighbour. This at a time when we are pretty much all very sympathetic to Ukraine and its struggle for its own sovereignty.

There is still a certain ... feeling... in Wales that informs the national sense of identity, at least in some places.

Oh my! Oh he is going to crow over this, urgh. Though I'm glad he boosts the Ukrainians morale, when this is all over we can send him over as a present.

@Ijsbear 07:33
A dozen Russian officers have been prosecuted for sending hundreds of young conscript soldiers to fight in Ukraine, a military prosecutor announced.

These are some articles about conscripts being sent to Ukraine. Russian mothers seem to be formidable in their own way.

meduza.io/amp/en/feature/2022/02/26/i-m-panicking-where-is-my-child

www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61599932.amp

Thank you for all the updated news @Ijsbear

It certainly seems worrying. I so hope they can keep holding out, but it must be at such a cost to their lives.

Boris - it is touching in a way that his bravado and confident air has meant so much to Ukraine. We here can only feel wary, but the emotional energy he helps supply is in contrast to other European politicians’ more pulled-back, cautious approach.

Interestingly, in the western Ukraine, Lviv in particular, which was a part of Austro Hungarian empire / Poland over different periods of time in history, they used Latin alphabet until they were added to USSR in 1939 (as a part of a deal between Hitler and Stalin.

That is interesting. I never thought of Cyrillic as being an import to Ukraine and it will be interesting to see if its in-country usage will change after the war.

I think the Latin alphabet was a phase because of western Ukraine being part of the Austrian-Hungarian Empire. Cyrillic was otherwise the alphabet used right back from the Middle Ages on.

Ukrainian Latin alphabet - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Latin_alphabet
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Latin_alphabet

He’s having the time of his life. He’s already had a street and an embankment named after him. We won’t need to send him, he’ll send himself.
I don’t care though, he’s doing the right thing for the wrong reasons and Ukraine needs the support.

I take the attitude over Johnson and Ukraine that you have to make the most of a bad situation.

I don’t care though, he’s doing the right thing for the wrong reasons and Ukraine needs the support.

Nicely summed up.

I don’t know, they may keep Cyrillic as it’s not actually Russian. It was invented (is that the right word for it?) by Bulgarian monks I believe Cyrill and Methodiy. But it may as well be that Ukraine decides to ditch it post war especially as they are hoping to join the EU. would be interesting to see what happens.

I wonder if the situation with Russia and Ukraine is closer to the terrible occupation of Ireland in Elizabethan times, though this is perhaps treading on very sensitive grounds.

As @Mb76 says the alphabet is not specifically Russian.

It goes ultimately goes back to the Byzantine Empire and Greek script. If anyone is interested here are excerpts about it from Wikipedia,

The Early Cyrillic alphabet was developed during the 9th century AD at the Preslav Literary School in the First Bulgarian Empire during the reign of tsar Simeon I the Great, probably by disciples of Saint Cyril and Saint Methodius, the two brothers who created the earlier Glagolitic script.[6][7][8] The new script became the basis of alphabets used in various languages in Orthodox Church dominated Eastern Europe, both Slavic and non-Slavic (such as Romanian). For centuries Cyrillic was also used by Catholic and Muslim Slavs too (see Bosnian Cyrillic).

Cyrillic is derived from the Greek uncial script, augmented by letters from the older Glagolitic alphabet, including some ligatures. These additional letters were used for Old Church Slavonic sounds not found in Greek. The script is named in honor of the Saint Cyril, one of the two Byzantine brothers[9] Saints Cyril and Methodius, who created the Glagolitic alphabet earlier on. Modern scholars believe that Cyrillic was developed and formalized by the early disciples of Cyril and Methodius in the Preslav Literary School, the most important early literary and cultural centre of the First Bulgarian Empire and of all Slavs:

The Glagolitic script (/ˌɡlæɡəˈlɪtɪk/,[2] ⰳⰾⰰⰳⱁⰾⰹⱌⰰ, glagolitsa) is the oldest known Slavic alphabet. It is generally agreed to have been created in the 9th century by Saint Cyril, a monk from Thessaloniki. He and his brother Saint Methodius were sent by the Byzantine Emperor Michael III in 863 to Great Moravia to spread Christianity among the West Slavs in the area. The brothers decided to translate liturgical books into the contemporary Slavic language understandable to the general population (now known as Old Church Slavonic). As the words of that language could not be easily written by using either the Greek or Latin alphabets, Cyril decided to invent a new script, Glagolitic, which he based on the local dialect of the Slavic tribes from the Byzantine theme of Thessalonica.

@Ijsbear · Today 13:23
I wonder if the situation with Russia and Ukraine is closer to the terrible occupation of Ireland in Elizabethan times, though this is perhaps treading on very sensitive grounds.

Yes, would it be comparable to this and to and the Plantations just after?
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plantations_of_Ireland

@Mb76 apart from older and poorer pro-Russians in the east of UKraine who may feel loyal and nostalgic for Soviet days, do you think the pro-Russian separatists were mainly genuine grass-roots Ukrainian Russians? Or were people from Russia being sent in to populate that area? I do know some of the fighters like The Wagner group, Motorola, or Gerkin were really Russian and I presume some leaders may have been Russian puppets. I find the history here confusing.

WarMonitor🇺🇦
@WarMonitor3
·
53m
In the coming days Russians will attempt to cross the SD river in several places, they are preparing resources and regrouping in several places.

Mick Ryan
We are now past the 100 day mark since Russian began its invasion of #Ukraine. Today, an examination why strategic patience is needed in our support for Ukraine to defeat the Russian invasion

opinion article here:

twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1534316051210858496?s=20&t=9GTWGqGom1Rl_jXFF0PDrw

Fuat
@lilygrutcher
·
16h
Arms and weapons included in Lend-Lease Act 2022 are expected to arrive in Ukraine in 2-3 weeks, Ukrainian Presidential adviser Olexiy Arestovich says.

Ukraine Business News
@theUBN
·
1h
#Lavrov did not expect such questions from a journalist in Turkey

"What of the things stolen from Ukraine, besides grain, has Russia managed to sell?" the journalist asked the Foreign Minister of the Rashist Federation. 😁

(it must be terrible when he has to deal with free speech)

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"Nothing says "anti Nazi" like scaring a chief Rabbi out of your country".

Ukrainska Pravda in English
@pravda_eng
Moscow's chief rabbi leaves Russia after regime demanded he support war in Ukraine

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NEXTA

A bill to repeal resolution "On Recognition of the Independence of the Republic of Lithuania" was submitted to Russian State Duma

Today Vilnius also approved dismantling of a memorial at Lithuania's largest burial site for Soviet soldiers at Antakalnis cemetery.

[if anyone doubted that Russia has ambitions further than Ukraine, this is a hint as heavy as a cast iron Le Creuset on their foot]