Ukraine Invasion: Part 26

[MagicFox]

Here we are, on top of our rock

I’ve only just found this thread and have wondered where all the Ukraine related information and discussion was on MN. Can I join?

@RedToothBrush that’s an amazing post which sums up so much so well

Particularly interesting in how it frames the Russian nuclear threat as a key part of Russia’s disinformation campaign.

@heldinadream inadream · 20/05/2022 14:44
Talking of good people and BRAVE people - this is AMAZING!

Report by BBC's Moscow correspondent Steve Rosenberg on a one-man protest against the invasion in a tiny town called Russko-Vysotskoye, eight hours north of Moscow.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61515365

That is so brave and admirable of him. I wonder how he has been able to understand so much more than the other Russians of his generation. who are taking the news at face value?

Another really good podcast on Chatham House about the relationship between China and Russia/Ukraine. My key takeaways:

1. Very unlikely that China knew there would be a full scale invasion of Ukraine. Likely they new 'something' was up but probably thought it would be more of a covert push into areas already partly occupied.

2. China and Russia's 'partnership without limits' should be read as having a note underneath that says *terms and conditions apply. - Should definitely not be read as Russia can get away with anything.

3. China is personally invested in the success of Ukraine - it is signed up to the belt and road initiative. China was also the single biggest trading partner with Ukraine before the war (aside from the EU as a single entity).

4. China and Russia may both be autocracies but they are fundamentally different. Russia is a top down autocracy whereby Putin aligns himself with the oligarchs and is feared. China is bottom up whereby Xi has chosen to align himself with the average person and is generally well thought of amongst the very poorest in society.

More takeaways:

1. China was never going to put sanctions on Russia however should be noted that, since the invasion, several trade deals between Russia and China that were expected haven't gone ahead. It is clear that China is avoiding doing any unnecessary business with Russia.

2. On the role of China in aiding the end of the war - China is a relatively novice international player and it is likely not to be equipped with the skills or expertise for the sensitive diplomacy that it would take at this stage to end the war.

Thanks so much for that summary @Igotjelly! That's all so interesting

Thanks for these, @Igotjelly. Very interesting indeed and somewhat reassuring. All honestly, when all of this kicked off, my first thought was 'oh great, China is sure to be giving Putin a helping hand' so pleased to see that this isn't the case.

Thank you for that podcast about disinformation and cyberwarfare @Igotjelly .

It is particularly interesting I thought that most of the KGB’s work is entailed in producing it; and that they are willing to work on conveying any particular line over even as long as twenty years so as to influence people’s understanding throughout their education. I see they were also working on influencing Germany and the English speakers ahead of this invasion, but luckily Ukraine and the West was better prepared they they reckoned on. (No one realised how far Russia interfered with the election of Trump or with Brexit at the time.)

Apparently, according to this podcast, we are less likely to use this technique. Personally I am not sure Dominic Cummings and BJ and their group didn’t use it over Brexit. (And Stonewall comes to mind imo. But that is not for this thread.)

It cut out before it had finished and after I restarted it I couldn’t see a bar to move to get back to that place, so will have to wait to try to hear the last section later.

Thank you too for that information about China.

Apropos the influences on the Russian people’s view of Ukraine, this article about Russian cinema at the moment is very interesting:

How Russian Cinema Dehumanized Ukrainians and Laid the Ground for Today's War Crimes

ukraineworld.org/articles/russian-aggression/how-russian-cinema-dehumanized-ukrainians

This thread has only been going a few hours and already there have been some great links, thank you to everyone who has posted.

@GertrudePerkinsPaperyThing of course you can join! :) there are 25 past threads which is an awful lot to wade through but there's some great stuff.

@Ijsbear

Thanks! I’ve been following everything happening in Ukraine very closely but didn’t find this thread until now

Welcome @GertrudePerkinsPaperyThing

Thanks for new thread

The Cultural Centre in Kharkiv has been destroyed by Russia.
This BBC news shows a video of it being hit. People were killed.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61518209

Can anyone tell me that Russia won’t just keep bombing and deporting till the Donbas is all like Mariupol, then move on to Odesa, then have a new territory from which to carry on the same policy with the rest? I feel rather confused.

www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/20/russia-has-turned-ukraines-donbas-into-hell-zelenskyy-says

My thoughts on 3 of the above:

One - The Kremlin is running out of lies. Lies always catch up with you. China knew them anyway put went ahead (see 3) or no longer trust the regime.

Two - If you want to go to 'Equity' you have to do it with clean hands. No side agreements - they just don't work unless published and accepted globally. Unenforceable.

Three - China is invested in whoever controls Ukraine. But the trust is gone in Russia.

China will both bide its time and use its time.

Watch Turkey.

Why China is not backing Russia.
China had quite nice trade deals with Ukraine.
With Russia on the Sidelines, China Moves Aggressively into Ukraine 2018 www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/with-russia-on-the-sidelines-china-moves-aggressively-into-ukraine Who does own Odesa?

China's business and economic interests in Ukraine China was Ukraine's biggest single trading partner in 2019 [[https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/chinas-business-economic-interests-ukraine-2022-02-23}}

China is so pissed off with Russia, due to diplomacy issues we will reframe that as peeved.

Oh and a $50m stake in Mariupol www.kyivpost.com/business/china-to-invest-over-50-million-in-port-city-of-mariupol.html

That's very interesting about China, thanks igotjelly.

Slight derail, I saw this about a new Sky documentary called Once Upon A Time In Londongrad about Russia's links to 14 mysterious deaths in London including an MI6 agent, it's based on a Buzzfeed News investigation (link below). Not sure if it will be any good, I might try it.

www.stylist.co.uk/entertainment/tv/once-upon-a-time-in-londongrad-sky-documentary-series-russia-murder-scandal/660514

www.buzzfeednews.com/article/heidiblake/from-russia-with-blood-14-suspected-hits-on-british-soil

Thanks for the new thread.

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-19/china-in-talks-with-russia-to-buy-oil-for-strategic-reserves

This is disappointing.

Just wondering what military people think of this? twitter.com/elbridgecolby/status/1527650447959498753?s=21&t=oOfGpD5Z1nG6CE5HXWP4dQ. It's by Elbridge Colby formally of US defence.

@TargusEasting @RedToothBrush @TiddyTidTwo there are others too whose names I can't find in the list!

GertrudePerkinsPaperyThing, welcome. These threads have been my go to for up-to-the-minute analysis on Ukraine and emotional support over the last 3 months.

Unfortunately I don’t have a subscription to the Economist, but thinking of the Chatham House podcast about disinformation posted this afternoon, this is relevant:

Russia is swaying Twitter users outside the West to its side | The Economist

^An army of suspicious accounts began churning out pro-Russian content in March
May 14th 2022^ (See screenshot)

Ukraine and Russia are fighting mainly in eastern Ukraine, but they are courting allies around the globe. Ukraine needs other countries to abide by Western sanctions. That means winning hearts and minds in places like India and Turkey.

www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/05/14/russia-is-swaying-twitter-users-outside-the-west-to-its-side

Thank you for the new thread.