Ukraine Invasion: Part 26

[MagicFox]

Here we are, on top of our rock

Amazed at the bravery of those pilots, didn't realise so many died. How on earth could they get the courage knowing that??

@HappyWinter · Today 09:31
Thank you for that article -
Mariupol: The 80 days that left a flourishing city in ruins
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61480988

It is very sad that the city had been recently transformed too. It is interesting that a border guard said, “We live in shit, you’ll live in shit”. There is a saying about dealing with narcissists that you need to be like a ‘grey stone ‘ in front of them or they go berserk.

It does look as though Mariupol was abandoned to some extent so Kyiv could be defended. What Karaganov said in that article posted by MagicFox 07:51 makes more sense in that light ( though he could have just been finding an explanation for Russia’s Kyiv failure).. What an impossible choice for Ukraine.

If you look at the list of countries with a high dependency on Ukrainian grain, the list is something like:

• Egypt
• Pakistan
• Bangladesh
• Lebanon
• Morocco
• Tunisia
• Libya

You may note that North Africa is a very heavy importer of Ukrainian grain, mostly due to location, and in this region the war is likely to have some very severe impacts. Egypt, historically the biggest importer of Ukrainian grain, is already sliding into a food security crisis, and this is before the effects of the disruption of this year’s harvest has been felt. Normally, Ukraine supplies 82% of Egypt’s wheat, and there is no clear supplier who might fill the shortfall.

To give a sense of scale, grain from the Black Sea region supplies 12% of all globally-traded calorie consumption in an average year. Should the war continue for much longer, the majority of consequent deaths are not going to be Russians or Ukrainians, but people in Africa and the Middle East beset by food shortages.

On that site that MagicFox posted that she had found the Karaganov interview on, I saw an article about what could help the 80% of ordinary, poor Russians who do not know what is happening and never will because they cannot afford VPNs and you also need Visa to get one anyway. She suggested the companies should be persuaded to give them away free in Russia. I wonder how this could be done?

This is where the point about VPNs for ordinary Russians was made.

Thread by @olga_chyzh on Thread Reader App – Thread Reader App

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1506068030006038532.html

Could it be true as he says that Kiev was a distraction intended to take Ukrainian defensive resources from the south while Russia captured the south eastern parts?

In itself, Nope,

On the basis of what we know ATM I don't believe that the approach to Kiev was simply done simply and only as a distraction from matters elsewhere. That's starting to sound all a bit too revisionist for my liking and perhaps an attempt to credit their politicians/military with the sort of cunning we haven't seen so far.

Reason I say that is during that operation the Russian military committed (and lost) an awful of military personnel, most most especially key elements of their airborne forces, (the VDV) plus associated equipment in actions such as the attack on Hostomel, most specifically the attack on the Antonov airport over a period of several days..

It was fairly clearly (IMHO) an attempt at taking Kiev quickly, and decapitating the government.

It failed because as much as anything the Russians didn't plan properly and didn't take into account the level of Ukrainian resistance they would encounter.

I'd be very vary of anyone now claiming it was simply a distraction operation...

@notimagain
What you say makes sense.

Another problem with the ‘Kyiv as distraction’ theory is that the attack on Kyiv made the rest of the world really take notice. If Russia had only wanted to take Mariupol and edge along the south coast they would have had a better chance of the international community letting them get away with it than by attacking the heart of the nation which was impossible for the rest of the world to ignore.

“Helicopter pilots for many weeks were flying there, knowing that 90% do not return…

True heros.

Their loss will also be heavily felt elsewhere. That the generals considered it was worth -this- level of pilot losses to keep Mariupol going indicates just how valuable they considered it strategically.

+++

Key Takeaways

Russian forces may have made marginal gains to the north, west, and south of Popasna in order to continue their offensive on Severodonetsk from the south.

Russian sources may be overstating the number of Ukrainian defenders who have been evacuated from Azovstal to either maximize the number of Russian prisoners of war who may be exchanged for Ukrainian soldiers or to avoid the embarrassment of admitting they have been locked into a months-long siege against only “hundreds” of Ukrainian soldiers.

Russian troops reportedly regained certain positions taken by the Ukrainian counteroffensive north of Kharkiv City.

Russian forces are likely preparing for a major Ukrainian counteroffensive and protracted conflict on the Southern Axis.

+++

The Kyiv Independent

⚡️ General Staff: Russia has accumulated 130 units of military equipment near Chornobaivka, Kherson Oblast.

The occupiers seek to strengthen their military units, which have been repeatedly defeated by the Ukrainian army at a nearby airfield.

⚡️Over 40 countries of Ukraine Contact Group to meet again on May 23.
The group led by U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will discuss further defense support for Ukraine, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said at a May 20 briefing.

⚡️Official: Ukraine receives 29,000 tons of humanitarian aid over past week.

⚡️ Local official: Russian troops complete clearing rubble of ruined Mariupol Drama Theater, conceal real death toll. [they will never be known, those women and children and noncombantants. One day may there be a measure of justice for their deaths. I know it's unlikely but I can hope]

❗️Reuters: China inconspicuously buying oil from Russia at favorable prices.

At first, China cut oil supplies from Russia, to avoid appearing openly supporting Russia in its war against Ukraine and potentially exposing its state-owned oil giants to secondary sanctions.

However, after a month of war, China again began to increase its purchases of oil.

‼️Ukraine will need 5-7 years to demine the territory. In total, de-mining requires 300 thousand square meters of territory.

+++

kyivindependent.com/
Zelensky: 700,000 soldiers defending Ukraine now.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said in a televised interview on May 21 that 700,000 defenders of Ukraine are fighting all across the country, Ukrainska Pravda reported.

+++

11:00 AM
external Reuters: Germany, Italy approve rouble accounts for Russian gas payments.

Following discussions with the EU, Germany and Italy told companies they could open rouble accounts to proceed purchasing Russian gas “without breaching” sanctions against Russia, Reuters reported citing its anonymous sources. [grrrrrrrr]

+++

The Ukrainains are struggling around Popasna due to the lay of the land as much as anything else twitter.com/AggregateOsint

+++

Russian Defense Policy
@russiandefpolic
·
13h
Retired Chinese diplomat Gao said under Putin Russia's declining in all areas including its military. And "it's only a matter of time before Russia is fully defeated." His remarks were erased from the Chinese internet.

+++

Oleksii Reznikov
@oleksiireznikov
·
21h
Ukraine government official
Had a very productive VTC meeting with the Federal Minister of Defence of 🇩🇪 Christine Lambrecht today. We discussed the start of a new important project that will strengthen #UAarmy capabilities. Details will be soon. Thank you Christine for your dedication and support!

+++

(Im struggling a bit with the horror of the losses, the treatment of civilians and , stepping back to some degree to look after my mental health)

Their loss will also be heavily felt elsewhere. That the generals considered it was worth -this- level of pilot losses to keep Mariupol going indicates just how valuable they considered it strategically.

It's certainly going to be interesting to find out (presumably we will one day) the reality of the helicopter operation...as in terms of actual numbers rather than percentages..

Given helicopters and pilots are a very finite asset I can imagine at senior politician and very senior officer level there must have been a lot of deep discussion and more than a few arguments about whether the crews and aircraft would be better off deployed elsewhere in theatre, whether to keep the operation going or not, and of course ultimately when was it time to stop.

@TargusEasting meant to say thank you for replying to my China question. One of the things I've found most difficult to disentangle is political/economic/military war when the future is discussed

Thank you @Ijsbear for your daily updates.
It is understandable you are feeling as you do.

ljsbear, I understand

It's certainly going to be interesting to find out (presumably we will one day) the reality of the helicopter operation...as in terms of actual numbers rather than percentages.

True.

my companion pointed out a whle ago that Ukraine probably had more pilots than aircraft since many craft would have been destroyed in the first hours of the invasion. But that means that they chose to invest the precious few helicopters remaining to keep them supplied, -knowing- the attrition rate is so high.

The numbers of Ukrainians - 700k 'defenders' - seems high now. Haven't seen any estimates of Russian occupiers though. But they can't be that high?

You’ll largely find they’re impossible to disentangle, each is an extension of the others. War can no longer be thought of as military only. It’s the nature of the hybrid world we live in.

Yup. We could see many more deaths outside Ukraine due to this invasion.

Thanks for all the contributions on China. They are an enigma and wildcard in this invasion.

💐@Igotjelly @Ijsbear thank you for your posts. That horrendous tweet yesterday nearly finished me off. My daughter is 9 and my dad is 78, and I can’t get the horror of either of them being raped out of my mind.

On Twitter today there feels a real sense of heaviness about the continued attacks, and I’m seeing more suggestions that Ukraine should give up territory to ‘stop the war’. I just can’t comprehend how Ukraine are keeping on going, they must be exhausted.

What's blown my mind is just the larger geopolitical situation which I was so ignorant about before this. I started off thinking about the immediacy of Russia and now I'm thinking 15 years ahead to China

It always makes me feel better to know that this certainly isn’t something new. Geopolitics is a game as old as humanity and there are many seasoned players working tirelessly to navigate it.

*BBC News:
*
"Right now, the most likely outcome in Ukraine looks to be a return to diplomacy - something President Zelensky hinted at in his interview earlier.
The alternatives are a change of heart in Russia, or even a change of leadership there – which seem far less likely.
Zelensky has made it clear that he doesn’t have the means to push the Russians back, which is why he’s urging people to stay cautious about the eventual outcome. But we’ve not had any signs of the Ukrainian resistance easing in any way.
So I think any resolution is going to rely on a peace deal at this moment in time.
The Donbas in the east is still Russia's priority. We’re hearing from Ukrainian forces that Moscow is throwing everything at the region – possibly because its troops can move more freely now that the Ukrainian city of Mariupol has fallen."

And aside from risks of conflict geopolitics is absolutely fascinating. It governs almost everything that happens in our lives in some way.

Thanks @Igotjelly. You've now made me feel better about that, too!

NATO made the Serbs commit war crimes?

Righty O There.

Can we please not try and take framing like this please. Its bullshit.