Ukraine Invasion: Part 26

[MagicFox]

Here we are, on top of our rock

⚡️UK Intelligence: Lukashenko ‘likely balancing’ support for Russia’s war with desire to avoid direct military participation.

According to the recent intelligence update by the U.K. Defense Ministry, Belarus’ announced deployment of “special operations forces along the Ukraine border” will likely fix Ukrainian troops, so they cannot deploy to the Donbas.

Belarusian forces have not been directly involved in the conflict to date, the update says, however, Belarusian territory was used as a staging post for Russia’s advance on Ukraine’s north. Russia has also launched air sorties and missiles from Belarus.

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⚡️Institute for the Study of War: Russia has likely abandoned objective to encircle Ukrainian units from Donetsk to Izium to complete seizure of Luhansk Oblast.

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⚡️Bloomberg: Germany to stop Russian oil imports by end of 2022 regardless of EU sanctions.

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@RedToothBrush · Today 14:05

Re: what I had said:
“Was it true, as he [Karaganov] said, that the atrocities in Serbia only happened after NATO intervened?”

NATO made the Serbs commit war crimes?

Righty O There.

Can we please not try and take framing like this please. Its bullshit.

This below was what Karaganov had actually said, in case I had oversimplified/misrepresented it:

The interviewer Frederico Fubini stated in regard to NATO:
As for the intervention in Yugoslavia in 1999, it was made to stop a war that led to over 10,000 deaths and a UN tribunal charged Milosevic for war crimes, deportation and crimes against humanity.

Karaganov’s answer was:
«The massive killings in former Yugoslavia happened after the NATO’s rape of Serbia. People were killed on all sides. It was a civil war. It was an unspeakable aggression. And the Milosevic trial was a sad and humiliating show by petty people trying to rationalize their previous mistakes if not crimes».

www.corriere.it/economia/aziende/22_aprile_08/we-are-at-war-with-the-west-the-european-security-order-is-illegitimate-c6b9fa5a-b6b7-11ec-b39d-8a197cc9b19a.shtml

Lukashenko will know there's a limit to how much he'll be allowed to get away with. Lots of his people hate him already, if he tries sending the Belarus army in he'll be out on his arse.

Just a thought about food in Ukraine.

We've talked about the knock on effects to the rest of the world, but even in Ukraine there is going to me a massive problem soon.

Its not just about not being able to export. There is a lack of storage in the country, which is going to pose logistical and supply problems domestically.

With the population displaced an many without an income as a result things are going to get desparate, even within the western most parts of the country.

Think about it; Lviv would have facilities for its regular population. This has now swelled to huge numbers. So how do they cope with the extra?

Inflation will hit food prices so will hit even those who are working in Ukraine. And if there is a worldwide crisis, what capacity is the UN going to have to cover the humanitarian crisis both in Ukraine and elsewhere? Ukraine is used to providing for its own food needs. This is going to hit hard.

At the moment many ukrainians have returned to their country after fleeing initially, particularly if they are from safer areas. We could well see reverses in this current trend (more returning than leaving). This is where we could see a lot more people seeing the UK as an option and there being a later wave of exodus.

As an aside. A standard bottle of rapeseed oil at my local supermarket was about £2 around a month ago. Then the shelves have been largely bare of it as many manufacturers switch from sunflower oil to rape seed oil. Today, it was back on the shelves for the first time is a number of weeks. The same brand which was £2 a bottle, is now £4 a bottle.

Anything which involves either sunflower oil or rapeseed oil is going to be affected by these kind of price hikes.

«The massive killings in former Yugoslavia happened after the NATO’s rape of Serbia. People were killed on all sides. It was a civil war. It was an unspeakable aggression. And the Milosevic trial was a sad and humiliating show by petty people trying to rationalize their previous mistakes if not crimes».

Total and utter lies. Complete distortion of the truth.

As my 8yo would say, omgekeerd wereld - "inside-out wrong world!"

@Ijsbear · Today 15:48
Thanks for confirming what Karaganov said about NATO in regard to Serbia in that interview was rubbish.

Redtoothbrush, the thought of a global food crisis is horrific. Like a slow motion train crash. I would have thought that that in itself is reason for a stronger intervention in Ukraine. Putin is weaponising food and this will kill millions in poorer countries.

@blueshoes · Today 16:05
RedToothBrush the thought of a global food crisis is horrific. Like a slow motion train crash. I would have thought that that in itself is reason for a stronger intervention in Ukraine. Putin is weaponising food and this will kill millions in poorer countries.

That’s what I was wondering too blueshoes. It must be no one wants to intervene more than has been the case so far. But you hear hints that Ukraine will just have to accept the loss of Mariupol, let alone Crimea. And what if Russia gets Odesa too? Ukraine would then no longer control their old trade routes.

And if Putin then "saves" people from the global food crisis by exporting grain to them, he'll be able to get more countries onto his side. Its not good :(

Russia cut off gas to Finland this morning and we've already completely replaced it so in your face Putin!

💪

You may well be right. I have a slightly different view - and I could be wrong.

I did post this on an earlier thread - probably around thread 10. Ukraine is abundant with fertile soils. They will naturally be more fertile as the rivers flow down towards the South-East and the Donbas. There the soils are black rich, similar to the 'caviar-like' soils of the English Fens. But looking at satellite images, the agricultural system over the whole country looks very different to that of the UK - more small scale and more intensive. Every village and market town is fringed with small plots and strips growing different crops and cereals are being grown on areas as small as 1 acre. I can clearly see winter cereal crops in some satellite images. That is unheard of in the UK. In fact, though I am not an expert on Ukraine agriculture, it looks as if the market gardening and small-holding occurrence is more intensive than regions of France. Based on this, it is quite possible there is a localised food production system that might out well. A bit 'Dunkirk-esque' perhaps. Little fields and little tractors and small self-sufficient settlements. Bear in mind that potatoes are also a good form of carbohydrate and should grow well in these soils.

China buying Russian oil isn't a bad thing. They are buying it below market price. Below cost price actually. India also has a very heavy discount, I think it's not far off China's.

My dad was there, as part of Nato and then the UN. He didn't make anyone commit atrocities although as an observer and peacekeeper he was forced to stand by while they happened. I believe from what others have said to me (he doesn't talk about it) that he saw things nobody should ever see.

I agree with Ijsbear, biggest load of crap out.

Was discussing Ukrainian vegetable growing with my guests today as it happens (as we ate our borscht) and they said everyone who has a garden grows vegetables for borscht, his parents give the family two sacks of potatoes every autumn. (And our friends are from Kyiv, not rural.) The other day they were asking if there is a market where local farmers sell their produce.
All this would point to there indeed being plenty of smaller scale growing than here, though given the stories about top of the range combine harvesters being stolen by the troops there’s clearly the other extreme of agriculture too.

The harvesters are for strategic grain and seed production partly for national consumption but a significant majority will be for export. In an agronomy of Ukraine’s size, you could almost say the National consumption is a by product.

The Ukrainian government seems to be well organised. People are motivated. The key to local food production will depend to some extent on manpower and we’ll-serviced machinery. I’m making a distinction between the larger €330,000+ harvesters and smaller tractors and implements that will need maintaining and will not have contractual service schedules. They probably have this covered.

A bit of an aside but relates to geopolitics and to a degree China. Some very positive noises coming out of the new Australian Govt.

It depends on whats in the ground right now though. What they can grow is different to what is growing right now. They have to plan to cover this and that takes months.

I am also partly going off what I have been told first hand about the rising prices of food in Ukraine. We do know that many people have no job and no money as it is, so even a low price of food is problematic as someone has to feed them. Normally that would be the UN. But I've heard the prices are just affecting those who have been displaced. Those who are working are struggling too. Often because they have extra mouths to feed. There will also be potential labour issues, with men away and women having left the country or looking after children alone.

Re Russia 'saving the day' by sending food to other countries.

Remember Russia have banned the sale of wheat to even their closest neighbours and trading partners because of concerns over internal food shortages. They import all the potato seeds from Europe. And they already are worried about shortages of things like sugar. The export ban was precisely because of their own food insecurity. If they decide to export wheat, then they risk problems at home...

Samuel Ramani AT Samuelramani2
Russian MP Leonid Slutsky announces that Russia could consider a prisoner swap of Azov Battalion fighters for Viktor Medvedchuk

A rare break from the Duma's line that prisoner exchanges with Azov fighters are impossible

@TargusEasting · Today 17:27
I did post this on an earlier thread - probably around thread 10. Ukraine is abundant with fertile soils. They will naturally be more fertile as the rivers flow down towards the South-East and the Donbas. There the soils are black rich, similar to the 'caviar-like' soils of the English Fens. But looking at satellite images, the agricultural system over the whole country looks very different to that of the UK - more small scale and more intensive. Every village and market town is fringed with small plots and strips growing different crops and cereals are being grown on areas as small as 1 acre. I can clearly see winter cereal crops in some satellite images. That is unheard of in the UK. In fact, though I am not an expert on Ukraine agriculture, it looks as if the market gardening and small-holding occurrence is more intensive than regions of France. Based on this, it is quite possible there is a localised food production system that might out well. A bit 'Dunkirk-esque' perhaps. Little fields and little tractors and small self-sufficient settlements. Bear in mind that potatoes are also a good form of carbohydrate and should grow well in these soils.

It seems wonderful to me that you have been able to work out so much about Ukraine’s agriculture and it’s potential from its geography and looking at a satellite map. What a lucky thing for this thread.

Thank you for your expertise, and thank you to all the other posters here who add theirs. There are insights and information here you don’t see from just reading the news.

@TargusEasting you are correct - re - food growing. Ukrainians are mostly used to growing their own food and indeed the soils is very rich and fertile. My granny used to tell me that during WW2 nazis would take truckloads of soil back to Germany from Donbas where we are from.
Most people have access to a green space somewhere outside of the city (and don’t forget Ukraine has a huge rural population) where they can grow enough food for their own family or more if they wish to. During the very difficult early-to mid-90s when I as a teen, we had hardly any food, both parents were intermittently unemployed, we lived in a high rise block of flat in Donetsk. Thankfully my grandma had a house in a village 20 miles away (Olenivka, I was horrified to read the other day that this is where they took some of Azovstal soldiers 😭) , with a large established orchard, as well a large enough plot of land to grow food on. So every weekend and all summer holidays we were there. Growing potatoes, courgettes (I ate so many of them I hate them now), onions, cucumbers, carrots, cabbages so that we could survive the long winter, with very little money coming in.
of course times have changed and before the war Ukrainian people had good standard of living even by western standards. So maybe not everyone needed to grow their own food. But many people still do. Even in towns and cities, there are many people who live in houses / as opposed to tower blocks, they would undoubtedly use most of their garden space to grow food. And many would keep chickens etc.

this was my experience in the east of Ukraine. When i was an older teen- young adult, I visited friends in the Lviv region who lived in a village. Now they had a lot more land, a cow, pigs, geese, chickens, this is how most families there lived too.They also used tractors to on fields where they grew food communally I.e. shared among several families in that village. They all worked full time and did all that farm work on top, I was so impressed (as a city born 17 year old at the time) by how hard they worked.

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kyivindependent.com/national/andriy-zagorodnyuk-those-saying-ukraine-cant-win-dont-understand-the-situation/

They are also saying that the Mauripol defenders could be swapped for Medvedchuk

Watch this one:

Serhiy Hayday AT serhey_hayday
russians destroyed the bridge between #Severodonetsk and #Lysychansk This is the second time. In 2014, the militants already undermined the bridge during the retreat. it was restored in 2016 #UkraineRussianWar

Neil Hauer AT neilphauer
Am hearing that this was the last bridge to Severodonetsk. Unclear whether Ukrainian forces were able to withdraw beforehand. Any left behind are now completely cut off.

Source that was there today said this was the last functional bridge and link to Lysychansk

Tgrxe AT tgrxe
As long as Lsychansk holds, the defenders are good inside Sieverodonetsk. If Lsychansk falls then its a whole different situation. Ukrainians are using the topography around Lsychansk to hit deep inside Rubzihne as we saw today and yesterday.