Ukraine Invasion: Part 26

[MagicFox]

Here we are, on top of our rock

oryxspioenkop.com/2022/03/list-of-aircraft-losses-during-2022.html

Russia - 152, of which: destroyed: 114, damaged: 1, captured: 37

Ukraine - 55, of which: destroyed: 47, captured: 8

667 killed Russian officers so far. Minimum confirmed losses as of February 2022, based on death or burial notices from the Russian side.

I saw this article and it reminded me of the "worm in the bud" discussion here, he was pro-Brexit (not a judgement but unusual for left-leaning media) and he is suggesting a deal should be made, I'm getting pretty sceptical of motives now. I know there is terrible fallout from the invasion on the global food supply, but I'm not sure that appeasement is the answer. Surely we would be better to help Ukraine win, for them and for the rest of the world.

The atrocities committed by Russian troops mean compromising with the Kremlin is currently hard to swallow, but economic reality suggests only one thing: sooner or later a deal will be struck.

Russia is winning the economic war - and Putin is no closer to withdrawing troops
Larry Elliott

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/02/russia-economic-war-ukraine-food-fuel-price-vladimir-putin

This is horrific.

How can an invading military force so openly target civilians and get away with it?

Zelensky is admitting that 600 Ukrainian soldiers are removed from the battlefield every day; 100 killed and 500 injured. These are higher than I thought. Ukraine cannot sustain these losses - 18,000 a month - and push Russia back to all its borders at 24 February. This is very worrying.

@TargusEasting Will these numbers be significantly reduced when Ukraine start receiving more heavy weapons do you think?

I don't know. I am not there on the ground to assess it. For sure more Russians will die, but that may prolong the war anyway. It is going to get worse for Ukraine through the sheer weight of numbers moving up to the Donbas and we need to be realistic about that.

I thought the previous estimate from Zelensky of up to 100 a day being killed was already hard to swallow but 500 injured and taken out is quite alarming. This is so tough for them.

When will those damn long range artillery weapons arrive?

Even the British army could not sustain that level of attrition. Not the best comparison because we would use cruise missiles and air power if the UK were attacked by conventional forces, where as Ukraine is fighting with one hand tied behind her back. But it does put it into context somewhat.

Germany would be knocked out in 6 weeks at that rate by the way. You can start to understand where the priorities in some economies will lay over the next 10 years.

@ScrollingLeaves yes he had to go via Crimea with his wife and his friends, a family of three. They were held overnight in a filtration centre in Crimea and they were stripped, interrogated, phones searched. They got through but many were sent back to Kherson or to prison. He said he has never known so much fear but that he remembered what Winston Churchill said "when you are going through hell, keep going." Honestly this nation takes my breath away. They have my life long respect.

Just a warning, if the associated press article 100 days of war shows up in your Twitter feed the photos are very upsetting.
Ukrainian troops are already being trained on HIMARs

@Hillsmakeyoustrong · Today 22:11
@ScrollingLeaves yes he had to go via Crimea with his wife and his friends, a family of three. They were held overnight in a filtration centre in Crimea and they were stripped, interrogated, phones searched. They got through but many were sent back to Kherson or to prison. He said he has never known so much fear but that he remembered what Winston Churchill said "when you are going through hell, keep going." Honestly this nation takes my breath away. They have my life long respect.

Thank goodness they got through, and how brave they have been. It is dreadful to think of those who could not manage it.

Russian troops killed 9 employees at Chernobyl nuclear plant, kidnapped 5 others and stole 135 million pounds worth of equipment

Sorry dollars not pounds

@TargusEasting · Today 21:47
Zelensky is admitting that 600 Ukrainian soldiers are removed from the battlefield every day; 100 killed and 500 injured. These are higher than I thought. Ukraine cannot sustain these losses - 18,000 a month - and push Russia back to all its borders at 24 February. This is very worrying.

It is an unbearable amount surely.
It is awful to have been watching very brave people trying to fight for their survival against the odds with not enough help, and what there is coming either too slowly or too late.

@minsmum · Today 22:48
Russian troops killed 9 employees at Chernobyl nuclear plant, kidnapped 5 others and stole 135 million pounds worth of equipment

On Radio 4 “Costing the Earth. Ukraine: a War on Nature, Cherbobyl came up. Someone from Chernobyl explained a lot of the equipment was a necessary part of running the plant. I have forgotten the exact consequences, but it was stupid to steal it.

Tge high losses at the moment are mainly in Donbas, and according to Arestovych, it wouldn't have happened had they received all tge promised weapons in time - we're talking Germany here. But they are getting a good stream of howitzers, and more are due to come shortly, so it's slowly changing.

He also said that Ukrainian army managed to trap and destroy a large concentration of Russian forces in Severodonetsk, just as they were building their troops up. They've done the same in Kherson region.

It doesn't mean UA can knock RU out if Severodonetsk, they will probably still lose it, but they have won quite a bit if time for themselves.

Ugh, this is like reading a watered down translation of Russian propaganda. Appalling piece of work.

I wonder whether the Russians who stole the equipment even know what to do with it. They were probably just petty thieves and looters thinking they could melt it down. They'd just as well steal a toilet. What a shocking and senseless theft. and vandalism. Putting lives at risk and throwing away millions of dollars of equipment that is not easily replaced particularly since they invaded the country. Not to mention the killings and kidnap. Argh.

Poor Ukraine. They bought that time with their blood. I am really disappointed in Germany - Germany has lost their moral leadership.

Good article about Russia's threat that warns against seeing it as diminished by its performance in ukraine: www.nytimes.com/2022/06/02/opinion/russia-ukraine-war-nato.html

Key points below if no time to read:

"Yes, President Vladimir Putin made a strategic blunder, leading to a military debacle and destroying decades of relative economic stability. But it’s far too soon to write Russia off. Despite its failures in Ukraine, Russia retains the capacity and the will to continue to seriously challenge the United States and Europe. Russia may be down, but it’s not out."

"What’s more, the war in Ukraine has done little to affect Russia’s more destructive military capabilities. It isn’t modernized Soviet tanks or Russia’s dated air force that most concern the United States and NATO; it’s Russia’s submarines, integrated air and missile systems, electronic warfare, antisatellite systems and diverse nuclear arsenal. These capabilities, which have gone almost completely untouched during the war, remain available to the Kremlin."

"Internationally, too, Russia is not as isolated as we like to think. The United States and Europe have staged a united response to Russia’s invasion, and NATO, re-energized, will surely soon welcome Finland and Swedenn to its ranks. Yet many regionally significant countries, such as India and South Africa, have longstanding ties to Russia that they are not currently prepared to abandon. Other countries, worried that economic sanctions will raise the cost of living and create instability within their borders, are refusing to pick sides. African countries, for example, have not imposed any sanctions on Russia, and the Middle East is hedging. And, of course, Russia can count on the continued support of Chinaa."

"Russian power, it’s worth remembering, has gone through fitful cycles of stagnation, decline and resurgence; it would be wise to avoid triumphalism and complacency. Mr. Putin made a mistake but not necessarily a fatal one. As the historian Stephen Kotkin notedd_, Russia has a remarkable historical capacity for reconstitution. The West’s relatively brief respite from great power competition with Russia in the wake of the Cold War constitutes, he reminded us, “a historical blink of an eye." In other words: Russia is a problem for the West, and it’s not going anywhere."

ISW Key Takeaways

Russian operations to advance on Slovyansk from the southeast of Izyum and west of Lyman continue to make little progress and are unlikely to do so in the coming days, as Russian forces continue to prioritize Severodonetsk at the expense of other axes of advance.

Russian forces continued assaults against Severodonetsk and Lysychansk in order to claim full control of Luhansk Oblast.

Russian forces made incremental advances around Avdiivka.

Ukrainian counteroffensives in northwestern Kherson Oblast pushed Russian forces to the eastern bank of the Inhulets River and will likely continue to disrupt Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) along the T2207 highway.

The Kremlin continued to pursue inconsistent occupational measures in southern Ukraine, indicating both widespread Ukrainian resistance and likely Kremlin indecision on how to integrate occupied territory.

Russian military leadership continues to experience complications with sufficient force generation and maintaining the morale of mobilized personnel. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Donetsk People’s Republic’s (DNR) 1st Army Corps, under Russia’s 8th Combined Arms Army, is conducting forced mobilization in occupied areas of Donetsk Oblast.[2]
Russian forced mobilization is highly unlikely to generate meaningful combat power and will exacerbate low morale and poor discipline in Russian and proxy units. The 113th Regiment of the DNR posted a video appeal to Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 2 wherein forcibly-mobilized soldiers complain they have spent the entire war on the frontline in Kherson without food or medicine, and that mobilization committees did not conduct requisite medical screenings and admitted individuals whose medical conditions should have disqualified them from service.[3] Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate additionally released an intercepted phone conversation wherein DNR soldiers similarly complained that physically unfit individuals were forced into service and that mobilized units are experiencing mass drunkenness and general disorder.[4] Russian forces are additionally struggling to successfully rotate servicemen in and out of combat. Spokesperson for the Odesa Military Administration Maksym Marchenko stated that 30 to 40% of Russian personnel that rotated out of Ukraine refused to return, forcing Russian commanders to send unprepared and unmotivated units back into combat.[5] This is consistent with complaints made by DNR servicemen that rotation practices are contributing to poor morale and dissatisfaction within units that have been forcibly mobilized.[6]

(God help the poor civilians who are at the mercy of drunken, unhappy, demoralized and badly trained soldiers).

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The Kyiv Independent, [03/06/2022 03:25]
⚡️ Baltic energy operators decide to reduce dependency on Russian electricity.

⚡️UK Defense Ministry: Russia controls 90% of Luhansk Oblast.

⚡️Russian media: Russia begins military drills in the Pacific Ocean. Russia’s Pacific Fleet has begun military exercises in the Pacific Ocean involving more than 40 of its warships and support vessels, as well as 20 aircraft and helicopters, Russian state-controlled news agency TASS reported on June 3.

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From UkraineNOW

❌ China is ready to help Russia, but is afraid of sanctions - The Washington Post.
The publication notes that Moscow has pressed Beijing at least twice recently to offer new forms of economic support. According to sources, Chinese President Xi Jinping has instructed his closest advisers to find ways to assist Russia financially, but without violating sanctions.

🔺U.S. Department of Commerce imposed export restrictions against 71 legal entities from Russia and Belarus.

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General tweets and weblinks

Germany supported granting Ukraine the status of a candidate for EU membership.
“This is a historic moment. We cannot close the doors to Ukraine,” said German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock.

Volodymyr Saldo, the head of Russia’s occupation government in Ukraine’s Kherson region, said that the majority of this year’s harvest from Kherson’s farmers will be sent to Russia. Meanwhile, the head of Russia’s occupation government in the Zaporizhzhia region issued a decree on the nationalization of Ukrainian property, RIA Novosti reported. meduza.io/en/live/2022/03/25/russia-s-war-against-ukraine

Russia already controls about 80% of the strategic city of Severeodonetsk, though Ukrainian troops were still holding an industrial zone, Luhansk regional governor Sergiy Gaiday said. In the city of Sloviansk, about 80 kilometers (50 miles) from Severodonetsk, residents said there were constant bombardments by Russian troops. www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/03/ukraine-as-its-happening-a76553

Western nations need to brace for a long "war of attrition" in Ukraine, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg warned Thursday following White House talks with U.S. President Joe Biden."We just have to be prepared for the long haul," the secretary general told reporters. "Because what we see is that this war has now become a war of attrition."
Stoltenberg said Ukrainians are "paying a high price for defending their own country on the battlefield, but also we see that Russia is taking high casualties (also from moscowtimes)

Ukraine NOW
@UkraineNowMedia
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8h
⚡️Zelensky:"More and more embassies are resuming their full-fledged activity in Kyiv.
As of today there are already 50 embassies.

My little boy (5), high on the joys of bike riding, just randomly said to me "I love the world". And this would have given me so much joy once but now it feels so sad

Numbers of Russian dead seem to be increasing more rapidly again, they went up more slowly for a while. Another plane down too.

@MagicFox · Today 06:42
Good article about Russia's threat that warns against seeing it as diminished by its performance in ukraine: www.nytimes.com/2022/06/02/opinion/russia-ukraine-war-nato.html

Thank you, MagicFox, that article is a necessary reminder. Any feeling of complacency about Russia’s lack of might is misplaced.