Ukraine Invasion: Part 26

[MagicFox]

Here we are, on top of our rock

Not really sure he's saying anything new, or starling TBH.

He seems to be pointing out that China still poses a threat to the US (and others), money needs spending on deterring that threat and that US policy makers should not get distracted by events in Europe.

starling! = Startling.....!!!

This is the defining war of the 21st Century. China wants resources and people. War is probable. Where? In space to some extent. They need to keep their ports open first. By land (Silk Road) and by sea (Paracels and Spratly) - Africa is enormous. Taiwan is not that important other than a staging post.

Your question has a nexus to political and social dynasticism rather than military though.

What would you do with 1.5 billion people and a population pyramid that China has? Other countries have similar, but in absolute terms China needs substantial younger numbers to work with/for it in this Century. And they are not in China.

**Taiwan - the semi-conductor operations and know-how are substantial though.

'face' as well. China considers Taiwan as theirs. They aren't going to forget that ever.

Zelensky has paid tribute to heroic pilots who helped people survive in the Azovstal steelworks. Most did not come back.
news.yahoo.com/1700-ukrainian-soldiers-leave-azovstal-071300848.html

8.44 p.m: Ukrainian defenders at Azovstal managed to last that long thanks to the heroic sacrifice of Ukrainian pilots, who were secretly delivering food and water to the besieged still mill, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with Ukrainian media.

"Unfortunately, a very large number of our pilots died. Absolutely heroic people who knew how difficult it was to fly to Azovstal and bring them medicine, food, and water," Zelensky said.

The President said that there were no air corridors to the Azovstal plant due to the strong Russian air defense systems in the area.

“Helicopter pilots for many weeks were flying there, knowing that 90% do not return… Imagine what these people did. They flew there to give food, water, and weapons to Azovstal defenders and took away the wounded. We lost many pilots. They are absolutely heroic, "Zelensky stressed.

mobile.twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1527756125260681219 joke from GaryKasparov

I am heartbroken. For the pilots, for their families who had to let them do the sorties knowing they are unlikely to come back. I did not know so many did not come back. I remember hearing about the air drops to Mariupol and then stopped hearing about them. I guess I know why now.

Such bravery and sacrifice is not of this world. I am so angry that they were put in a situation where they had to make impossible choices and they still put country and their defenders survival above their own.

The hardest decision is probably not for themselves but that they may have to leave behind a grieving family, spouse, their young children, parents. The ultimate sacrifice.

I'm sorry my joke from Twitter seems inappropriate inbetween those two posts

Not at all. Very much appreciate some dark humour!

minsmum not at all. I had a chuckle. Got to take your light moments when you can. Might try and weave the joke into real life.

Motorola

Catching my eye today was the posthumous award by Putin of the Order of Courage to Arsen Pavlov AKA Motorola, Russian born rebel leader in breakaway Donetsk in 2014 fighting. Former car wash worker Pavlov rose to be leader of the Sparta Battalion (something of a mirror to Donbas, Azov, Aidar et al). Goon amongst goons, this vile man confessed to executing captured Ukrainian soldiers and was responsible for the final bullet that killed Donetsk Airport defender and 'cyborg' Ihor Branovytsky. Like Strelkov he found time to marry during the war (the former was at the decidedly mismatched wedding).

In late 2016 he got into the lift in his apartment and didn't come out alive. The bombers? Infighting amongst the increasingly gangsterish rebel leaders? A Ukrainian hit squad (denied)? The Russian security services concerned about his overstepping his brief?

How is his award relevant today? It's Putin signalling to oddballs, misfits, the gun-happy and the deluded to step forward to fill the gaps in his forces. Motorola can't comment on the award. He'll be feted alongside others from the era, apart from Strelkov.

neweasterneurope.eu/2016/10/24/motorola/

khpg.org/en/1476650685

[Pavlov's wedding image the bride wore St George ribbons and they posed next to the flag of non-existent Novorossiya.]

Belated thanks for the (no longer) new thread.

@minsmum m · Today 22:15
mobile.twitter.com/Kasparov63/status/1527756125260681219 joke from GaryKasparov

That is a very funny joke!

@MMBaranova
That is interesting about the posthumous reward to Arsen Pavlov/Motorola

Imagine a wedding picture where a rifle is your bouquet.

MMBaranova: How is [Motorola's] award relevant today? It's Putin signalling to oddballs, misfits, the gun-happy and the deluded to step forward to fill the gaps in his forces.

I think you would be right there. Putin is scraping the bottom of the barrel. He is trying to attract and organise the same far right loonies who stormed Capitol Building and arm them to kill.

Can these people realistically fill in the gaps in numbers in the Russian forces?What commanders would want untrained unpredictable types who may not even take orders in their battalions? What is their likely effect on the efficacies of the forces.

Presumably they are most useful in terrorising unarmed civilians.

MMBaranova · Today 23:09
I have just read the links you posted.
A picture comes across as if various mafia thugs have been controlling this separatist region, and that they have most likely been killing each other. It is also interesting that Pavlov had come from Russia in order to fight there - he was not personally an oppressed Ukrainian Russian.

A picture comes across as if various mafia thugs have been controlling this separatist region, and that they have most likely been killing each other.

If Russia is putting an 'administration' in Kherson, did it also do the same for Russian-occupied Donbass region? Notwithstanding Russia took those areas by force, if they governed it decently - as opposed to a lawless mafia state equivalent to a North Korean gulag with torture and god knows what - then they could have brought more Ukrainians over to their side. They could have caught more bees with honey. It was a missed opportunity.

As it is, Ukraine will now fight to the death for every inch of territory. There was no question of surrender from day 1.

Interview with Sergey Karaganov, former advisor to Putin. Some seriously interesting stuff here re the Russian position and worldview, particularly on Europe and China.

https://www.corriere.it/economia/aziende/22aprilee_08/we-are-at-war-with-the-west-the-european-security-order-is-illegitimate-c6b9fa5a-b6b7-11ec-b39d-8a197cc9b19a.shtml

Good thread: "It’s natural to be worried about the threat of a nuclear war, especially with all the rhetoric coming out of Russia. Here is some analysis from the perspective of research on authoritarian regimes, war outcomes, and international bargaining."

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1527741187502776322.html

This is also where I came across the interview posted earlier

Thanks @MagicFox. Found these really insightful!

https://www.newsday.co.zw/2022/05/basic-goods-disappear-from-shelves/

Basic goods disappear from shelves

SOME basic commodities such as cooking oil have virtually disappeared from shop shelves as the monthly food basket shot to $120 000.

The Consumer Council of Zimbabwe (CCZ) yesterday said a family of five now required $120 000 a month to survive, up from $98 000 in April as the local currency tumbles and prices of basics and services skyrocket.

“The monthly bread basket for a family of six now stands at $120 834. The rise in the prices has been influenced by speculation where consumers created shortages as they hoarded commodities following the announcement of the bank lending ban by President Emmerson Mnangagwa,” CCZ spokesperson Christopher Kamba said.

The majority of workers in the private and public sectors are earning less than half the figure, with civil servants now pushing for United States dollar salaries.

And

Confederation of Retailers Association of Zimbabwe president Denford Mutashu said: “There is a general global shortage of cooking oil arising from the geopolitical impact of the Russia-Ukraine war as supply chains have been disrupted. We ought to invest locally and reduce the dependency.”

And

Inflation is currently racing away and is at 94% as of last month.

RedToothbrush, that's very worrying, the implications of this war really are global.

BBC article with stories from survivors who have left Mariupol, and about their city before the invasion, it's particularly sad as it has photos of Mariupol from before Russia invaded (one of the interviewees enjoyed photography) and there are images of a thriving city with beaches.
Mariupol: The 80 days that left a flourishing city in ruins
www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61480988

Thank you, MagicFox.

The interview with Sergei Karaganov is very interesting and rather upsetting and frustrating. In some cases I don’t know enough detail to know whether he is right, in others such as that Bucha was staged, I know he is not.

Was it true, as he said, that the atrocities in Serbia only happened after NATO intervened?

What he said about very divided groups in the West is true, and we know know that Russia was helping to encourage that. Who knows what is to come on that score. He talks about the rise of Nazism/ nationalism in the west and that is true but those very people seem to have been encouraged by Russia, and some of those support Putin.

Could it be true as he says that Kiev was a distraction intended to take Ukrainian defensive resources from the south while Russia captured the south eastern parts?

It is ridiculous Sergey Karaganov blames Russophobia, as a version of nazism, for the war. After the break up of the Soviet Union, Russians have been accepted all over Europe especially in London. Russophobia has been the result not the cause. (I do agree that cancel culture of great Russian works of art, music and literature is wrong, if and where that exists though.)

It's eye opening isn't it, Scrolling? I'm also wondering about what he says re Kiev as a distraction. That would involve us rethinking a bit re Russian strategy/failures

His 'endgame' also suggests a salami approach to Ukraine