Ukraine Invasion: Part 25

[MagicFox]

Hi all, another thread for supporting and sharing

This is. excellent calm analysis of the very real risk of a nuclear conflict breaking out.

The counter argument I often see is that a nuclear conflict would be suicidal for the Russians and Putin as well. So it highly unlikely they would start down this path.

However dictators tend not to spend relaxing retirements at the country dachas, rather they tend to get executed. Imagine if Hitler in the final stage of WW2 sat in his Berlin bunker with the Soviets closing in on him, had access to nuclear weapons. Does anyone really think he would have hesitated to press the red button.

Faced with being deposed and quite probably execution does anyone think that the dictator Putin would hesitate to press the red button?

@MNHQ Interestingly, I quoted only some paragraphs from the linked article and to show these were separate extracts I put three asterisks between each as natural breaks. These do not show and appear to have emboldened each paragraph immediately below.

Good luck with your guest @Eddiesferret
The refugee centre in my town should be opening soon. I wanted to volunteer in some way but its in the other town (my town is two towns merged together but the other town is about 10km walk away and I don't drive)

Russia's response to Finland mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/1812971/?fbclid=IwAR2CAi2IqDLPsXqaV0Ct7obrD3s3CfjmEBv1WRxyW1DY2gzkMGb02fLcO9c#sel=2:1:49C,10:4:jhi You'll need to run it through translate but its just so ridiculous, so full of bullshit, that it makes me laugh rather than worry.

Faced with being deposed and quite probably execution does anyone think that the dictator Putin would hesitate to press the red button?

He does not push it. Most Russians love the motherland more than anything else. So, no the button is not going to get pushed.

The big red button is a metaphor, not the literal reality of how nuclear missiles are launched. It would need people to follow orders right down the command chain.

And most of them, if not all, will be thinking of themselves and their families and considering whether its worth following the order or not.

Trouble in the ranks. Calls for Shoigu's head now: twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1524880300949528583?s=21&t=6-gjd-uaF34Du11LN8qmVw

Wow, listen to Kaja Kallas on Russian negotiating tactics and the strategy of appeasement. Eye opening, makes total sense. twitter.com/munsecconf/status/1512451999622643714?s=21&t=6-gjd-uaF34Du11LN8qmVw

Jesus Mumsnet. I've just spent 45 minutes trying to work your formatting out and now then.

sigh.

From the ISW: Key Takeaways
Russian forces made marginal gains to the north of Severodonetsk and have likely captured Rubizhne and Voevodivka.
Russian forces fired intensively on Ukrainian positions in northern Kharkiv to stop the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive around Kharkiv City. The artillery focus on Ukrainian positions has likely diverted the Russian artillery that remains in range of Kharkiv to the more urgent task of stopping the Ukrainian advance.
Russian forces are strengthening their position on Snake Island in an effort to block Ukrainian maritime communications and capabilities in the northwestern Black Sea on the approaches to Odesa.

From commentary:

#Russian forces may be abandoning efforts at a wide encirclement of #Ukrainian troops along the Izyum-Slovyansk-Debaltseve line in favor of shallower encirclements of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk.
It's unclear if Russian forces can encircle/capture Severodonetsk and Lysychansk even if their efforts focus on that much-reduced objective. Russian offensives have bogged down every time they hit a built-up area throughout this war, and these areas are unlikely to be different.
Reports that Russian forces in Popasna are advancing north, toward Severodonetsk-Lysychansk, rather than east toward the Slovyansk-Debaltseve highway, support this hypothesis.
The relative success of Russian operations in this area combined with their failure to advance from Izyum and the notable decline in the energy of that attempted advance suggest that they may be giving up on the Izyum axis.

No info yet on Russian losses.

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The Russian top level has started to self-cannibalize.
Gerasimov seems to have been suspended, Lt General Sergei Kisel has been fired and arrested after retreat from Kharkiv and two more Russian army generals and two naval commanders have either been sacked, arrested or investigated over battlefield losses, according to information from Ukraine's interior ministry.

Just as a reminder, Putin has removed his old bureau the FSB and put the military Int in charge of spying in Ukraine.

I find this and removing Gerasimov big moves. I wonder if it’s Nikolai Patrushev
who is increasingly pulling the strings.

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This next one is dismaying.
Those people who were against oil/gas sanctions turn out to have been right, unfortunately.

The Kyiv Independent, [13/05/2022 03:52]
⚡️Russia’s oil revenue rises 50%, enabling its aggression.
According to a report published by the International Energy Agency, Russia has been making $20 billion a month from selling about 8 million barrels of crude oil and oil products a day since the beginning of this year.

On top of that there are reports that Russia might cut oil to Finland from Friday presumably because of the NATO thing.

The Kyiv Independent, [13/05/2022 00:19]
⚡️Governor: Ukrainian army destroys Russian troops, equipment as they try to cross river.

Ukrainian troops defeated the Russians again on May 12 as they set up a pontoon bridge across the Siversky Donets River in the village of Bilohorivka, Luhansk Oblast. The Ukrainian army had destroyed a total of 70 units of equipment and killed dozens of Russian troops in Bilohorivka.

(So talk of ‘ dozens’ not 1500 which seems far more realistic. But it’s clear that a lot of equipment was destroyed!)

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The Kyiv Independent, [13/05/2022 00:33] @notimagain
⚡️Ukrainska Pravda: Ukraine asks NATO countries to train pilots to fly Western aircrafts.

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⚡️Schemes: Satellite pictures show expansion of mass graves near Mariupol.

(No further news on the negotiations for the 38 severely wounded in Azovstal).

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The Kyiv Independent, [13/05/2022 00:58]
⚡️Zelensky: 'Russia has destroyed 570 healthcare facilities since Feb. 24' President Zelensky also said Russia fired missiles at schools in Chernihiv Oblast on May 12. "Of course, the Russian state is in such a condition that education only hinders it," Zelensky said in response to the attacks.

(Nice dry comment at the end but I think there’s more in it than first appears.
The Russian people especially in the villages where most of the troops come from seem to still support the war. They are believing what they are told.

I think that this is probably because a questioning attitude is something that most people are taught to have at first until it is internalized. It doesn’t necessarily come naturally, until reality directly impinges on us when it contradicts what we’ve been taught. Unthinking obedience to the Russian state line is in Russia’s interests. Could be partly why the Russian troops are so headless when the officers are killed too.
They just aren’t taught to think for themselves and in fact it’s discouraged.)

Morning...
Just catching up..

Just looked back and looks like Flight radar threw a bit of a wobble last night with at least one eastbound flight (AZG212)...there may have been others.
AZG212 is depicted as leaving Amsterdam OK but a while later just south east of Prague Flightradar splits it into two separate entities/returns......It carries on actively tracking one of those two returns correctly via ADS and shows it following
the standard route via Romania/southern Black Sea and on to Baku...
OTOH the twin flight is somehow dropped into predicted mode after the spilt and
Flight radar simply assumes it flies the great circle route from point of last tracking to Baku, at an assumed speed .... as a result it draws the (fictious) aircraft following a route right over Ukraine.

Not sure Flightradar did a similar bizarre split for some other flights last night but certainly in general everybody, including Silk Way flights that were being fully tracked, stayed well clear of the conflict area.

The Kyiv Independent, [13/05/2022 02:45]
⚡️UN: Over 6 million Ukrainian refugees have fled the country since start of Russia's full-scale invasion.
The latest data from the International Organization for Migration reported that more than 8 million Ukrainians have been displaced within the country.

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Siemens, the huge German company, is pulling completely out of Russia now.
It had suspended operations before this, now they are pulling out.

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Ukraine has moved to seize assets in Ukraine of Russia's largest lender Sberbank in response to Moscow's invasion.
Lawmakers also approved the seizure of 99.8% of shares in Prominvestbank, a Kyiv-based lender owned by the development bank Vnesheconombank (VEB), a Russian state body.
(While understandable I’m not sure this is all that good an idea.
The rule of law is important and one of the fundamental structures that keep society functioning.
If the rule of law is openly broken, it’s an erosion of one of the stabilizing factors that can help keep society functioning and rebuild afterwards.
One day Russia and Ukraine are going to have to talk again, after the war is over.
This decision is close to theft to my mind and while they will get away with it, I’m afraid it will start a tit-for-tat thing).

@AggregateOsint

#UkraineRussiaWar Update - Today #Russian forces fired 12 Kalibr cruise missiles at oil depots in #Kremenchuk, #Poltava Oblast, #Ukraine. The oil depots exploded and started burning. #Kremenchuk is around 100miles/160km from the front lines.

(Oil and petrol are increasingly an issue for the Ukrainians as the Russians have been targetting processing facilities).

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newlinesmag.com/reportage/is-putin-sick-or-are-we-meant-to-think-he-is/

No actual confirmation that Putin has cancer, but then there wouldn’t be.

Possibly a silly question, but can someone please explain to me how Russia's oil revenue is up 50%? Who is buying it that wasn't before?

Thank you so much TheCountessofFitzdotterel for the link to HFU thread. I didn't realise there was one. I will get over there straight away and leave this one to your discussion. I hope to return when she is settled in as I have much to say about the situation.

Thank you Natsku and TargusEasting for your good wishes. It is appreciated.

We aren't on any of the SM threads as I am not a fan. (I also work in the Human Trafficking world on the Criminal enforcement side - so a little jaded by SM)

However we have managed to kinda create our own network we set up ourselves. My friend and I collected a transit full of medical supplies for the army and drove it to Lublin. It was there that I met the lady who arrived last night and made contact with the Ukrainian volunteers in the distribution centre. Through them we have now got 28 refugees all housed in one village . All of whom are distantly connected through the volunteers.
My lady is really lovely... and she loves cats - so that makes her perfect. ! My two think she's pretty special as well and they are excellent judges of character. ! Still asleep atm as we didn't get home until 3am .. but today is sunny and bright and I hope that is a maxim for the future.

For those concerned by increased RAF activity over and off East Anglia, those of us who live there have been told to expect it, due to rehearsals for the jubilee fly-past etc.

Prices have gone up, so that increases the revenue.

I see. Sorry, I should have realised that! Thanks for clarifying.

I’d like to believe the positive noises about Ukraine making gains, regaining list territory, but isn’t it much more realistic that Ru will keep the gains made in the East and South and eventually it’s 2014 Crimea all over again? How is it humanly possible for Ukraine to push out all the Ru forces? Ru force’s morale not likely to collapse because effectively those conscripts have no other options.

Ive read @Igotjelly posts on that Chatham House talk about Global Britain. Democracy is definitely under attack and being eroded. Shame our current government is actively undermining democracy in this country.

India.

That all sounds brilliant.
😍

I find it quite disconcerting, the contrast between the day to day business of hosting Ukrainians and reading this (excellent) thread. Sitting on the sofa putting Peppa Pig on for the kids to learn English while reading about weapons. But then war is weird, isn’t it?