Ukraine Invasion: Part 25

[MagicFox]

Hi all, another thread for supporting and sharing

38 of course, of course.

the headline says “obmin” though, that would be exchange, not extract.

I don't think that the Azovstal soldiers will withdraw willingly. Yes they will want the wounded to be evacuated but they are fighting for their homeland and keeping the flag flying there represents their battle.
They will hoping to keep it flying even at the expense of their own lives and ultimately after the Russians have left.

I think that the only way to get them to withdraw is to promise that they will be among the first to return, and that it will be made a priority by the government.

Thanks Chardonnays, it did say swap, Im a bit tired.

I am wondering if bribery could come into play? Not with the top echelons, but with the infantry on the ground. Offer them cash and a pass to a third country where they can start again, assuming no war crimes.

FFS Russia

Between this and the river crossing fiasco, you are giving Blackadder a run for his money.

From Kyiv Independent (twitter)
Official: Another Russian ship hit by the Ukrainian navy near Zmiinyi Island.

As a result of the attack, Vsevolod Bobrov, one of the newest ships of the Russian Navy, caught fire, according to Serhiy Bratchuk, a spokesman for the Odesa regional military administration.

Or Mr Bean, the psychopathic version

I'm sitting in arrivals waiting for my lady to arrive. Excited and nervous. Cannot imagine what it will be like to leave your home with a single suitcase not knowing when you will return.

The next months will be difficult I'm sure . Not for me - all I have to do is give her a home - but her family are all still in Odessa which I'm sure is what Putin has his eye on..

Only time will tell. Someone needs to put a bullet in the madman's head and save thousands of lives.

Good luck to you both Eddiesferret!

@TargusEasting · 12/05/2022 23:13

I understand what you meant now, thank you.

The poem by Robert Frost is beautiful. I had never read that one.

Do you remember the Ukrainian Wall song posted here recently,? It is nice you have found this poem about walls too.

I was struck at the start of the poem where he contrasts nature’s gradual making of gaps in the wall, through time and weather, which are just big enough to pass through, with the tearing down of the stones by hunters wanting to kill rabbits at any cost.

The Russians’ compulsive and relentless bombardment of the Azovstal steel plant comes to mind:

^The work of hunters is another thing:
I have come after them and made repair
Where they have left not one stone on a stone,
But they would have the rabbit out of hiding
To please the yelping dogs.^

@Ijsbear · 13/05/2022 00:07
Good luck to you both Eddiesferret

Yes, @Eddiesferret good luck to you both. Thank goodness she is out of there.

@Eddiesferret PM me if you need help, or a chat. We have a 20 yr old female guest with us 🙂

Thank you ShinyHat22 I may do that. Still waiting.. she's in baggage claim hopefully here in a few mins. Thank god I took tomorrow off work !

@Eddiesferret you will find that there is a LOT of stuff to be done in the first few days.

I'm older than both of you and well remember learning about the 'three minute warning' as a young child and coming to the realisation quite quickly that in reality, there would be no warning and also thinking that I wouldn't want to survive in a post-nuclear winter.

Am I scared? A bit, mainly that Putin's irrationality could lead to an 'accidental' missile launch, even though logically I know that it takes more than one person to issue the order. The whole bloody thing is so irrational and the costs in terms of human life and wanton suffering and destruction are almost beyond belief and understanding.

Should we stand up to Putin? Absolutely. Because he. will. not. stop. unless we stop him. And it will be the same with the next Russian leader after Putin. It's how we do it though: resistance takes many forms, from the bravery of the Ukrainian people and armed forces, to sanctions, to supplying weapons and tech, to welcoming Finland and Sweden into NATO, to resisting the deep seated urge to just go and nuke the bastard which would only lead to our mutual destruction. It's a horrible balancing act, and all the while Ukraine suffers. As someone once said, it's treading softly whilst carrying a big stick.

I'm not entirely sure what I'm trying to say in this post. Just that, being scared is not a reason to not act. Putin sees any attempt at negotiation and appeasement as weakness and as a green light to press on further. That's what happened incrementally in Salisbury, that's what happened in Londongrad, that's what happened in Crimea. The trick will be to try and create some kind of so-called off-ramp for Putin so that he can spin it as something other than the utter humiliation that this 'special operation' has been.

Or 'four minute warning', even. It's late, that's my only excuse.

@Throwawaytoday I'm east coast. Raf Coningsby are on special exercises this week , hence the amount of planes. Also Wed and Thurs are generally flying days/ nights at Donna Nook bombing range.
We have Euro fighters over our heads most days and are very used to them now. We've had quite a lot of American fighters out this last fortnight too.

Thread on the risk of nuclear if NATO aren't / are involved. There's somebody further down who makes the point that the risk might actually increase outwith the theatre of war (ie as a result of spillover linked to food poverty etc). Case made here that in the event of RU use, NATO should not respond. Tricky convo

twitter.com/russianforces/status/1524870096858009600?s=21&t=6-gjd-uaF34Du11LN8qmVw

That was an interesting thread. But I don't think I agree that NATO should say Nuclear weapons are off the table no matter what. To me that says to Russia that they have the option to do what they want without any come back.
Nuclear weapons being off the table should only be off the table if Putin says it as well, but would trust him?

Off topic, but has the poster Alexandra2001 no longer here anymore? I found their posts helpful.
Also thanks to all of you who post important information, like others, I find it helps understand things better.

I got the number wrong!

Good luck with your guest, @Eddiesferret . I can’t remember if you are on the support thread but it’s there if you need it.
HFU thread

Are you plugged into local Ukraine hosting networks via Facebook or WhatsApp groups etc? You probably are but if not I highly recommend it.

But I don't think I agree that NATO should say Nuclear weapons are off the table no matter what.

Of course (a) NATO could be lying and (b) things change.

And that's before you remember that Russia said invading Ukraine was "off the table" back on 23rd February.

Nutty Medvedev has laid out the Russian gameplay in a handy letter for us all

Max Fras AT maxfras
Dmytry Medvedev's latest letter ('Friday the 13th'):^

The world is facing 10 imminent plagues including poverty, hunger, war and disease - all result of anti-Russian sanctions

translation below

1. A number of global supply chains of goods will collapse, a major logistical crisis is possible, including the collapse of the activities of foreign airlines that are prohibited from flying over Russian territory.

2. The energy crisis will intensify in those states that have imposed “shooting in their own feet” sanctions on the supply of Russian energy carriers, further growth in fossil fuel prices will continue, and the development of the digital economy in the world will slow down.

3. A full-fledged international food crisis will come with a chance of famine in whole countries

4. A monetary and financial crisis is possible in some countries and groups of countries, associated with the undermining of the stability of a number of national currencies, galloping inflation and the destruction of the legal system for protecting private property.

5. New regional military conflicts will arise in those places where the situation has not been peacefully resolved for many years or the significant interests of major international players [nudge nudge, wink wink!] are ignored.

6. Terrorists are becoming more active, believing that the attention of Western authorities today is diverted to a showdown with Russia.

7. New epidemics will begin, caused by the rejection of international cooperation in the sanitary and epidemiological sphere and due to the use of biological weapons.

8. There will be a decline in the activities of international institutions that have not been able to prove their effectiveness in the course of settling the situation in Ukraine, such as, for example, the Council of Europe [Russia is not bitter, not at all!]

9. New international alliances of countries based on pragmatism rather than ideological Anglo-Saxon criteria will be formed.

10. As a result, a new security architecture will be created, in which de facto, and then de jure, the existing realities will be recognized: a) the weakness of Westernized concepts of international relations such as "Rule-based order" and other pointless Western rubbish

b) the collapse of the idea of a USA-centric world; c) respect for the interests of those countries that are in an acute conflict with the West by the world community

(letter ends here)

^Source: t.co/lGO0EoPAxg^

Apologies for a rough translation and mistakes, off I go again to wash my eyes with bleach

Note: no mention of nuke, military, or Ukraine at all.

They know the military campaign isn't going well.

They are reverting to the only policy Russia has both foreign and domestic. Mafia policy through bullying and intimidation.

Take note. A settlement in Ukraine will not change this policy preference. We ignore this at our peril.

The plan is a blunt instrument though. Russia can't control it either. There are a huge amount of variables on this.

Not least China.

Strangely enough, its almost as if British intelligence has preempted this. Ben Wallace made a point about saying that China was pissed off and that the war was bad for business and stability. It was embarassed by it.

The Russian plan plays to its tried and tested ability to fracture western and international public opinion. But it cannot control the outcome of that. It could backfire.

Events. The phrase 'events dear boy' springs to mind.

This is a plan of last resort. Its one that is out of the hands of Russia. Its for the west to manage (which wont be easy to say the least). But Russia can't control it either.

Good morning all

I will be watching Flight Radar later today. I was a bit perturbed by what I saw last night.

@TheABC Bribery - yes possible. War creates the perfect backdrop for chaos capitalism.

@ScrollingLeaves "Mending Walls" can be interpreted in infinite ways it seems. I like yours. I did not spot those things.

@Eddiesferret I think you are doing something very good here and I hope it is a great experience for you both.

@Iwasfeelingepic I wondered about Alexandra2001 also. Probably kicking arse in Ukraine or somewhere else.....😀

I saw this earlier. Senator blocks $40bn package

A $40 billion aid package to fortify Ukraine’s defenses against the Russian invasion won’t reach President Joe Biden’s desk this week, with one senator’s objections stalling the legislation.

Democratic and Republican leaders sought to clear the bill Thursday with enough time to head off a lapse in U.S. weapons shipments to Eastern Europe that’s expected next week.

But those efforts were dashed after Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) blocked a fast-tracked vote, demanding leaders include a provision that would designate a special federal watchdog to oversee how the $40 billion is spent.

*

Congress has moved with unusual speed and bipartisan solidarity since the president warned Monday that assistance to the allied country is likely to cease next week without a fresh infusion of cash. And it was a rare show of bipartisan unity in the Senate, with Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell moving jointly to pass the package.

*

With the Russian invasion — now entering its third month — shifting to Donbas and southern Ukraine, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told lawmakers that “the coming weeks will be critical” in the battle. The United States’ ability to deliver billions of dollars in military assistance “with unprecedented speed and resolve” has “made a huge difference on the ground,” the secretary said this week.

*

Schumer and McConnell proposed to hold a vote on Paul’s amendment, which would give a special inspector general oversight of the money, with a 60-vote threshold. That offer did not appease Paul, however, who is demanding his proposal be incorporated into the bill before it passes.

*

We must remember, this package is the total cumulative package. Much of this aid has already reached Ukraine and as far as I can tell, there is only a further $7bn incorporated into this package. I suspect Senator Paul is acting as proxy to achieve some accountability and this looks like a final sign-off. I do not blame him, particularly given my own belief that the 2003 Iraq War was orchestrated for financial gain, and this is democracy working.

To put it into context, $40bn is less than 4 days of total IRS tax revenue ($11bn per day in 2021). I have made this point before that Russia cannot militarily compete with an economy of this size and that's before we even consider the EU. China is also going to find it difficult, but nations can change and nations can fail.