Ukraine Invasion: Part 25

[MagicFox]

Hi all, another thread for supporting and sharing

Siemens ceases their production in St.Petersburg

twitter.com/Siemens/status/1524615634960719874?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1524615634960719874%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwyborcza.biz%2Fbiznes%2F717715128446303siemens-wycofuje-sie-z-rosji-po-prawie-170-latach-dzialalnosci.html

@Eddiesferret 13/05/2022 09:13

However we have managed to kinda create our own network we set up ourselves. My friend and I collected a transit full of medical supplies for the army and drove it to Lublin. It was there that I met the lady who arrived last night and made contact with the Ukrainian volunteers in the distribution centre. Through them we have now got 28 refugees all housed in one village . All of whom are distantly connected through the volunteers.

Your Ukrainian guests being grouped in one village will be much less lonely than they would have been had they been scattered miles away from each other. You must have put so much thought into this. What a good thing you have done. I am so pleased your lady has your cats to love and be loved by too. Good luck to you all.

@Ijsbear · 13/05/2022 08:50
Thank you for your long update, and reposting it too in an easier format. That was a lot of work, but I am grateful.

I don't see the point in worrying about nuclear war. It can't help anyone, least of all me. We have had nuclear weapons all these decades and they have not so far been used.

The beginning of the war in February felt more of an unstable time to me.

Russia is not doing well in the war, but its country's infra-structure has not been devastated, its civilians are not being attacked and its borders are not being invaded.

Putin seems to be quite able to redefine military objectives and "victory" however he wants to and his people generally accept that.

If he decided to stop the war for now, he could no doubt find a way to say that he had punished the neo Nazis enough at the moment. And it might be that sanctions would then start to be lifted; Russian oil is important to many countries.

I agree that the endgame would potentially be another time of instability though.

@MagicFox · 13/05/2022 08:43
Wow, listen to Kaja Kallas on Russian negotiating tactics and the strategy of appeasement. Eye opening, makes total sense. twitter.com/munsecconf/status/1512451999622643714?s=21&t=6-gjd-uaF34Du11LN8qmVw

Thank you. How interesting, it does make sense.

If he decided to stop the war for now, he could no doubt find a way to say that he had punished the neo Nazis enough at the moment. And it might be that sanctions would then start to be lifted; Russian oil is important to many countries.

But it takes at least two sides to stop a war...Putin can claim whatever he wants but if the Ukrainians and their supporters want a return to the pre-2022/pre-2014 boundaries (delete as applicable) then the fighting will continue....

@User02jcuicen · 13/05/2022 09:12
Possibly a silly question, but can someone please explain to me how Russia's oil revenue is up 50%? Who is buying it that wasn't before?

Russian shipments have continued to flow even as the European Union edges towards an import ban, and international oil majors such as Shell Plc and TotalEnergies SE pledge to cease purchases. Asia has remained a keen customer, with China and India picking up cargoes no longer wanted in Europe.
www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-12/russia-oil-revenue-up-50-this-year-despite-boycott-iea-says

The 50% increase is purely because of the rise in oil price, it's before the increase of oil sales to India is accounted.

@notimagain · 13/05/2022 10:18
“If he decided to stop the war for now, he could no doubt find a way to say that he had punished the neo Nazis enough at the moment. And it might be that sanctions would then start to be lifted; Russian oil is important to many countries.”

But it takes at least two sides to stop a war...Putin can claim whatever he wants but if the Ukrainians and their supporters want a return to the pre-2022/pre-2014 boundaries (delete as applicable) then the fighting will continue....

Has Putin shown he is the side willing to stop it? Has he said they would withdraw if Russia keeps Crimea, the Donbas and their latest gains?

If Russia has said this, what if such a withdrawal would also be subject to Ukraine having neither safety guarantees or NATO membership in the future? Wouldn’t there be a danger of Russia regrouping stronger than ever and later reverting to its original plan to subsume the whole of Ukraine into Russia?

@ScrollingLeaves

You talking to me? 🤔

Just for clarity the first para ("if he decided'..") is from the backend of @herecomesthsun post upthread... the bolded bit/second para is my response.

What I meant was that there are a number of alternatives to going nuclear for Putin. He can reframe what is happening as a victory if he chooses, and indeed any concession would be a gain for Russia, which is the point that the Estonian PM made, cited on here.

Putin is such a bullshitter he could just withdraw all his troops and go 'What war?', and make out like the whole Ukrainian expedition was fake news put out by NATO to discredit him.

The experience of going through the filtration camps meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05/13/i-ve-never-been-so-scared

Euromaidan PR
@EuromaidanPR
·
2h
The total combat losses of russian enemy in #Ukraine from 24.02 to 13.05 were approximately:
personnel - about 26900 (+250) liquidated
tanks ‒ 1205 (+10)
APV ‒ 2900 (+27)
artillery systems – 542 (+8)
MLRS - 193 (+2)
Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 88 (+1)
aircraft – 200 (+1)
helicopters – 162 (+1)
UAV operational-tactical level - 405 (+7)
cruise missiles - 95 (+1)
warships / boats - 13 (+0)
vehicles and fuel tanks - 2042 (+23)
special equipment - 41 (+0)
General Staff of the Armed Forces of #Ukraine

@notimagain · 13/05/2022 10:49

You talking to me?*

Yes, I was referring to your response to a previous poster’s suggestion that Putin could withdraw and save face “If he decided ….”

I thought that your answer seemed to imply that it was Ukraine blocking progress towards peace:

But it takes at least two sides to stop a war...Putin can claim whatever he wants but if the Ukrainians and their supporters want a return to the pre-2022/pre-2014 boundaries (delete as applicable) then the fighting will continue....raine

So I asked you:

“Has Putin shown he is the side willing to stop it? Has he said they would withdraw if Russia keeps Crimea, the Donbas and their latest gains?

If Russia has said this, what if such a withdrawal would also be subject to Ukraine having neither safety guarantees or NATO membership in the future? Wouldn’t there be a danger of Russia regrouping stronger than ever and later reverting to its original plan to subsume the whole of Ukraine into Russia?”

I hope this did not seem an attack on you as that was not my intention.

Horrible.
It’s so frightening the way the human rights of whole towns of people can just suddenly count for nothing.
It’s the sort of thing you read about happening to the Uighurs in China, or in dystopian fiction set in the future…but as recently as mid February everyone in Ukraine was living normal lives, and now this.

MagicFox's link on the Russian way of negotiating is kinda eyeopening.

We underestimate cultural differences so much. It's really hard to put aside our own very deep laid assumptions that come from growing up in one culture, really from when we were tiny. That link should be required viewing in Politican's School.

@ScrollingLeaves

I thought that your answer seemed to imply that it was Ukraine blocking progress towards peace:

Nope....

@TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 13/05/2022 11:28

Ijsbear
“The experience of going through the filtration camps meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05/13/i-ve-never-been-so-scared”
Horrible.

It’s so frightening the way the human rights of whole towns of people can just suddenly count for nothing.

It’s the sort of thing you read about happening to the Uighurs in China, or in dystopian fiction set in the future…but as recently as mid February everyone in Ukraine was living normal lives, and now this.

Yes, and there was the terrible story a few days ago about a mother with her 4 year old daughter on an evacuation bus to Zaporizhzia. The mother never returned from the checkpoint. Can you imagine the horror of that?

It's been obvious for a while but now it's official:

The Kyiv Independent, [13/05/2022 12:48]
⚡️Zelensky: Transnistria not a serious threat to Ukraine.

Up to 3,000 out of 15,000 troops know how to fight in Russian-controlled Transnistria, President Volodymyr Zelensky told Italian TV channel Rai 1 on May 13.

According to Ukraine’s intelligence, Russia was behind the recurring false-flag operations in Transnistria in the past few weeks.

Russian military earlier announced they aim to take over southern Ukraine, opening a route to Transnistria.

Yes, and there was the terrible story a few days ago about a mother with her 4 year old daughter on an evacuation bus to Zaporizhzia. The mother never returned from the checkpoint. Can you imagine the horror of that?

Horrible to think about that, chilling.

Oh my goodness. Macron what?!?

⚡️Zelensky: Macron offered concessions on Ukraine's sovereignty to help Putin save face.

President Volodymyr Zelensky said that French President Emmanuel Macron’s negotiations were “in vain,” adding that “we don’t want to save something for someone and lose territory for it.”

Fucking hell Macron, that's not your decision.

Think we need a bit..a lot more detail about what was said, when, and context TBH.

Fair point