Ukraine Invasion: Part 25

[MagicFox]

Hi all, another thread for supporting and sharing

Who loves a good map?

I love a good map. Here is a good map.

It is of the concerntration of Russian roaming phone sims in Ukraine.

Original (for those still in love with the MN Upgrade):
https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1524687923676954624

I do think its important to remember that Russia's invasion of Ukraine didn't occur in a vacuum thought. To be able to understand it at all we often need to look at other conflicts because Russia and Western Govts certainly will be. Like it or not, the similarities here with Palestine are striking.

Good article on cyber-warfare.

Ransomware attacks generally have been down, possibly because so many originated from Russia and are being impacted by banking sanctions.

Although there have been Russian cyber-attacks on infrastructure since Feb 24, generally systems have held up well. There are warnings of a likely increase in attacks, including on UK, as Russia moves focus from the kinetic battle.

And then there are the vigilantes from every side. There's a dilemma of whether to cheer such private attacks on Russian organisations, or to attempt to regulate and create international norms in order to have the high ground when it comes to holding the Russian state accountable for "private" attacks by Russian hackers.

Ukraine war: Don’t underestimate Russia cyber-threat, warns US
www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-61416320

Phillips P O'Brien has talked about this a little.

Afghanistan and Iraq were asymmetric warfare (invading side much more powerful but weak to insurgency guerilla attacks and doesn't have the home advantage/moral to completely destroy the defenders).
The difference with Ukraine is that they now have military means which is much closer to the power of Russia. O'Brien tentatively calls it semi-symmetric warfare, and makes the point that as Russia degrades and Ukraine is supplied by the west, we should see a situation where Ukraine is militarily stronger which isn't a scenario thats played out in modern warfare like this.

That makes it different to other recent comparisons...

Kyiv Independent. Things are defrosting between Germany and Zelenskyy

⚡️President’s Office: Steinmeier, Scholz expected to visit Kyiv.

Deputy head of the President’s Office Andrii Sybiha said on May 12 that there has been progress in the Ukraine-German relations, and Kyiv is expecting visits of two German leaders, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

Steinmeier earlier said that Kyiv refused his offer to visit in April. German newspaper Bild reported that it was due to the official’s close ties to Russia. President Volodymyr Zelensky denied having received such a request from Steinmeier.

Fair amount of reporting today about how some of the companies who stayed in Russia, are now leaving and how China is apparently getting pissed off with the war as its bad for business according to Ben Wallace.

Apparently Siemens has pulled out today.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/05/11/u-k-china-views-russias-war-as-bad-for-business/
U.K.: China Views Russia’s War as ‘Bad for Business’
British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said Beijing views Moscow as an increasingly “inconvenient friend” as the war in Ukraine is further bogged down.

“I think China views instability [as] bad for business,” British Secretary of State for Defense Ben Wallace said. “I think probably China is rather embarrassed by the behavior of Putin. He’s a rather inconvenient friend, and … you don’t see a full-throated support.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s increasing international isolation—and the threat of courting opprobrium from the West—are making it more difficult for countries to do business with Russia during the Ukraine war. “How many world leaders are going to be taking Putin on line two?” Wallace added.

And

But Russia may not need China to supply howitzers and helicopters. Some former officials worry that Western sanctions aren’t enough to deter China from supplying Russia with critical materials. They say the United States and European allies should be doing more to cover up gaps in sanctions and export control regimes—or even launch a full economic embargo of Russia along the lines of long-standing U.S. policy toward Iran and Cuba.

“China has the key supply chains to many sorts of items that you need for your military equipment,” said Nazak Nikakhtar, a former U.S. assistant secretary of commerce during the Trump administration and now a partner at Wiley Rein LLP, a law firm. “There’s still an ability through China, through our lax rules, through our allies, for Russia to get the things that it needs to continue to build dangerous weapons.”

But Russia’s relationship with China is also competitive, as the two grapple for influence everywhere from the Arctic and Central Asia to Central Africa. Wallace said Russia is “really worried” about China dominating the high north and could be in a weaker position coming out of the invasion.

I do hope Brenda doesn't have a dog she's considering as part of her emergency plans

Who loves a good map? Moi.

Aww....sweet. Like a murmuration of little starlings.

Wallace said Russia is “really worried” about China dominating the high north and could be in a weaker position coming out of the invasion

no shit Sherlock Wallace :D

Russia just have to have gone down in China's respect both militarily and politically. Deft, they have not been. Plus the country will be weaker overall for some time to come.

WOuldn't it be funny if China invaded?

Rumours that Russia could halt gas supplies to Finland tomorrow (Source Sky News Live).

I think the Chinese dynamic is really interesting. Many are seeking full throated condemnation of Russia from China but that simply isn't realistic, they are by nature competitors to the US and NATO and to condemn Russia is to side with these competitors. In my view silence and inaction is the best we can hope for.

Thank you for the new thread MagicFox.

Thanks for the Chatham House post @Igotjelly, very interesting and I have wondered how globalisation and how much more interconnected the world is will affect a new Cold War, it was different last time around.

For anyone struggling with sleep, lavender oil on a tissue on your pillow is great for helping to fall asleep/back to sleep quicker. Or dried hops (anecdotal accounts of the farm workers who gathered the hops getting sleepy) and dried lavender in a pillowcase tied up/sock etc, you can get them online.

Although we don't use much gas in Finland, what we do use is in industry so this will have a big impact if it happens.

I have been wondering a lot lately about the Arctic Circle which I presume is the 'high north' he refers to (as opposed to say Wigan or Penrith, for example).

As the ice gradually recedes it is a question of time before the oil and gas resources there can be commercially accessed. There are a limited number of claims to the region, but other than Russia there is the US, Canada, Norway, Finland, Sweden and Denmark/Greenland. Due to the Gulf Stream, it is Norway that will pioneer the exploration and exploitation and of course it has the experience and an enormous sovereign wealth fund to cushion the expense. This assumes of course that the world demand for oil and gas remains. I suspect it will - we are a long way from hydrogen planes and Flight Radar 24 shows the skies are crowded again. But it raises a number of points including a fight over the Arctic and a new source of power available to northern europe.

@Igotjelly · 12/05/2022 13:51
ScrollingLeaves
@SerendipityJane · 12/05/2022 13:13
”If incoming Russians are allowed to move into apartments of Ukrainians who have ‘evacuated’ that means there is the incentive to murder and hide people who stayed. Then of course so many thousands were not evacuated but deported.”

“Hang on are we discussing Ukraine or Palestine ?”

It may beg the question Serendipity, but we have been trying to generally concentrate on all the confusing details of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on this tread.

I do think its important to remember that Russia's invasion of Ukraine didn't occur in a vacuum thought. To be able to understand it at all we often need to look at other conflicts because Russia and Western Govts certainly will be. Like it or not, the similarities here with Palestine are striking.

Yes.

I was just watching news about the murder of the Palestinian journalist, Shireen Abu Akleh. The Israeli government has suggested a Palestinian shot may have killed her, though this seems highly unlikely.

Someone explained the force of the Agnotigy. Casting seeds of doubt that is then spread on a large scale. I had never heard that word before. How useful it is.

Within the sociology of knowledge, agnotology is the study of deliberate, culturally-induced ignorance or doubt, typically to sell a product eror win favour, particularly through the publication of inaccurate or misleading scientific data. Wikipedia

Agnotology

have been wondering a lot lately about the Arctic Circle which I presume is the 'high north' he refers to (as opposed to say Wigan or Penrith, for example).

😂

Agnotology. We've had a fair bit of that in the UK this last 10 years or so 🙄

China and Eritrea vote against a UN inquiry into Russian war crimes.

We're being told to prepare for cyber attacks here - keep enough cash for a few days and enough food, water and batteries for 72 hours (including pets, like Sweden), and good idea to have more than one identification method (we use online banking codes to identify ourselves online so if your bank goes down from a cyber attack you need a backup bank or another method). I already have the food and battery supply sorted and water containers although they say its better to buy bottled water than fill our own containers
yle.fi/news/3-12443701

My scientist DH disagrees over the advice to buy bottled water. Tap water is better quality than bottled and lasts longer. A container of tap water lasts for around a year despite being opened. Bottled water only lasts for a few days once opened. We have some bottled water but only in case we have to run as its one advantage is it's more portable.

Ah right, that's interesting.
We have a spring in the forest down the road we can fill water containers up at, most delicious tasting water ever, so that's always an option too.

You won't be able to keep spring water for more than a few days. The reason tap water keeps so long is that it has been treated and contains chlorine. We have a well in our garden and DH keeps trying to show me how remove the cap to access it. I'm like, fuck off, haven't you seen The Ring.

I’m surprised Finland is stiring the pot just now after staying out neutral for so long. Adding to the east west tension is not good.

China has a similar grievance over Taiwan so NATO has to be very careful not to provoke them, in addition supplies so much of the global technology that any dispute would bring a great deal of industry to a halt. China invading Russia is just wishful thinking.

Finland isn't stirring the pot Russia is

Finland didn't invade another sovereign nation this year . Russia did .

Finland knows what it is like to be invaded by Russia in the previous guise of the USSR (which Putin appears to be wanting to recreate). I can fully understand why they changed their mind about their neutrality after seeing what Russia aspires to do.