Ukraine Invasion: Part 25

[MagicFox]

Hi all, another thread for supporting and sharing

I wonder if the ones who came out of Azovstal had simply reached the end of their extraordinary reserves and surrendered?
Knowing it was the last chance?
The ones who remain must -know- they have no chance to get out.
They could be ones that know they are on a Russian hit list or something similar.

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ISW Key Takeaways

Russian forces are continuing to inflict air and artillery strikes on the Azovstal Steel Plant, indicating that a remnant of Ukrainian defense is still in the plant despite evacuations over the last few days.

Russian occupying authorities are reportedly planning to level the Azovstal Steel Plant after completing its capture, which directly undermines the large strategic economic importance of capturing the plant.

Russian forces continued to prepare for an assault on Severodonetsk and intensified operations around Lyman.

Russian forces continued to prioritize holding positions around the Russian border to prevent further Ukrainian advances north of Kharkiv City and will likely continue to do so at the expense of deploying additional reinforcements to other axes of advance.

Russian troops focused on maintaining their positions on the Southern Axis and on conducting rocket, missile, and artillery strikes along the frontline.

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Ukraine NOW [English], [19/05/2022 07:08]
⚡️Over the past day:

▪️Russians carried out shelling of the settlements of the Chernihiv and Sumy regions from artillery and mortars, inflicting a missile attack on the settlement of Desna – the morning construction of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

▪️To make up for the losses of the 107th rifle battalion, which amounted to more than 50%, reinforcements arrived in the amount of 260 military personnel previously involved in the Kharkiv direction.

▪️As a result of assault operations in the areas of the settlements of Velyka Komyshuvakha, Ustynivka, Novokalynove, Pervomaiske, Novomykhailivka, Zolote-4, and Yurievka, the enemy suffered losses and was unsuccessful.

▪️Sixteen enemy attacks were repulsed in the Donetsk and Lugansk directions, eight tanks, seventeen armored vehicles, four special vehicles and six conventional enemy vehicles were destroyed.

▪️In the absence of a mobilization resource in the temporarily occupied territories of the Donetsk region, the occupying military command plans to involve students of higher educational institutions in combat operations.

(my bolding)

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The Kyiv Independent, [19/05/2022 09:06]

⚡️US Senate to vote on $40 billion Ukraine aid on May 19.

⚡️ Poland to send 25,000 tons of gasoline to Ukraine. (they are struggling badly for fuel since Russia took out the refineries and stores)

⚡️Israel to provide wounded Ukrainians with medical assistance.

⚡️Japan doubles aid loan to Ukraine to $600 million.

⚡️ Reuters: US has no right to seize Russian central bank assets.
(agreed with this!)

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The Davos forum begins on Sunday. I suspect this is going to be one of the most interesting ones in recent times. Wonder if Russia will be there.

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The British intelligence roundup concentrates on the self-cannibilization of the Russian command.

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28500 Russian dead, and another plane went down. I do wonder just how many Russian-aligned troops are there now (incl Chechen, Wagner etc etc).

Apparently the Chechen troops don't fight. They are behind the lines so that if a Russian force breaks and refuses to go back into the fight, the Chechens shoot them. If this is true and I think it's worth bearing in mind that propeganda will be happening both ways, the Ru soldiers must hate the Chechens mroe than the Ukrainians by now.

It seems that Kadyrov's brother was in charge of the Chechen contingent in Mariupol. This chimes with the reports of some escapees that of the invaders, it is particularly Chechen 'soldiers' who are hunting down women and children to rape and / or kill.

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Regarding NATO and turkey: www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/18/us-confident-nato-expansion-issues-will-be-resolved

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How Putin's Daughter sees the War: meduza.io/en/feature/2022/05/19/how-putin-s-eldest-daughter-sees-it

(haven't read it yet)

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Going to link a thread from the ISW twitter site next

the thread from Twitter

@TheStudyofWar
·
7h
Russian occupation authorities today announced plans to destroy the Azovstal Steel Plant [why?!] The announced plan to turn Mariupol into a center of tourism and leisure following the complete destruction of a major center of economic activity in Mariupol is indicative of the damage that Russian troops have inflicted on themselves through the destruction of the city.

And there is evidence that the Kremlin knows this and may hope to offset the loss of revenues from Azovstal and other destroyed infrastructure in Ukraine by profiting from the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant that its forces have seized.and turn Mariupol into a "resort city," depriving Russia of some of the most important economic benefits it hoped to reap by taking the city in the first place.

This announcement directly undermines the large strategic economic importance of capturing the plant and epitomizes the kind of Pyrrhic victories Russian forces have won in Ukraine, to the extent that they have won victories at all.

Azovstal was a major element of Mariupol’s economy prior to the war because of its unique function as a full-cycle metallurgical complex, the 10k jobs it supported, the billions of dollars of foreign exchange earnings and taxes it generated, and its high production output.

After announcing plans to level Azovstal, head of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Denis Pushilin further admitted that 60% of the structures in Mariupol have been destroyed to the point where they cannot be rebuilt.

And there is evidence that the Kremlin knows this and may hope to offset the loss of revenues from Azovstal and other destroyed infrastructure in Ukraine by profiting from the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant that its forces have seized.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin announced that he will allocate maximum integration assistance for Zaporizhia Oblast to work in a “friendly Russian family” during his visit to Melitopol on May 18.

Khusnullin added that the Zaporihia Nuclear Power Plant will exclusively work for Russia and will sell electricity to Ukraine, a clear Russian recognition that there will be an independent Ukraine at the end of this war and that Russia seeks to restore its energy leverage.

(I know im spamming!)

This is significant, I think

Ukrainian officials reported protests in Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR) over forced mobilizations on May 16-17. The Ukrainian Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that relatives of the forcefully mobilized LNR servicemen demanded an immediate return of their family members from combat in Luhansk City and Rovenky approximately 50 kilometers west of Russian border.[7] The GUR noted that perceptions of war and resentment of mobilization in LNR worsened because of the high casualties Russian forces have suffered and the fact that Russian authorities are reportedly evading payments to the families of wounded and killed servicemen. Mariupol Mayor’s Advisor Petro Andryushenko had previously reported that a protest against mobilization had occurred in Donetsk City on May 16.

The population of Luhansk will end up more anti-Russian if this continues. Not paying the payouts is a mistake.

Why do they treat soldiers like shit then expect victory? The sheer lack of sense is astonishing.

2022 war.

Being primarily a Russian speaker in Ukraine doesn't mean you necessarily identify as Russian. Generally not, but you do have the ability to come out as Russian if a gun is pressed to your head. My relatives in Kherson Oblast speak Russian first and have Russian formulation names: Given Name, Father's Name, Family Name. That hasn't stopped the father in the family being roughed up by occupying troops for saying he was a proud Ukrainian.

Illia Ponomarenko [Ukrainian name] had a good thread on Twitter recently on how his family moved from the Ukrainian speaking countryside, switched to speaking Russian, including at home, over the generations and have since mostly made the effort to speak Ukrainian.

Navalny (a proud Russian nationalist as well as a dogged democrat and brave exposer of corruption) has said some anti-Ukrainian things in his life. He recently posted about his sadness over the rapists and butchers of Bucha killing those with the family name Navalny on their documents, possibly because of him. His father's family trace to Bucha it seems, though he did not know if any of those murdered were actually relatives. The name seems to be localised in that area.

The supposedly 'pro-Russia' parties like the defunct Party of Regions and the current Opposition Platform draw most of their support from Russian speakers, but Ukrainian speakers have clearly voted for them too. Their polices are never 'we must unite with Russia'. They are more pro rights for Russian speakers, government funding for their parts of the country and wanting to temper hardcore Ukrainian nationalists. If you are a Russian speaking fish in a Ukrainian pond you might strive for local power and are perhaps aligned to an oligarch as a follower or employee. You don't want to be swallowed up into Putin's crony state.

www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/may/19/russia-ukraine-war-latest-russian-use-of-laser-weapons-shows-invasion-a-failure-says-zelenskiy-live

Russia’s defence ministry, according to their morning briefing on Telegram, has said 1,730 fighters have surrendered from Azovstal since Monday. That includes a further 771 who surrendered, they say, in the last 24 hours. 80 were wounded. The Russian defence ministry says “those in need of inpatient treatment receive assistance in medical institutions” in Novoazovsk and Donetsk.

The International Committee for Red Cross has stated that it has now registered “hundreds” of Ukrainian POWs who left the Azovstal steel plant this week.

Statement from the ICRC:

www.icrc.org/en/document/ukraine-icrc-registers-hundreds-prisoners-war-azovstal-plant

As suspected…“The ICRC maintains a confidential dialogue with the parties to the conflict on their obligations under international humanitarian law.”

Statement from the ICRC

www.icrc.org/en/document/ukraine-icrc-registers-hundreds-prisoners-war-azovstal-plant

As suspected…“The ICRC maintains a confidential dialogue with the parties to the conflict on their obligations under international humanitarian law.”

Apologies for the double post router problems by the looks of it.

Glad the Red Cross are involved with the POWs, its reassuring.

Thank you for your posts @MMBaranova They really help with understanding the complexities.

Re the Kurds - they are one of the most dispossessed groups on earth atm. They should have been given their homeland. If I understand it right the Middle East was carved up in decisions made by France and the UK (and others?) during the 1st WW and the Kurds' needs were ignored. Lawrence of Arabia begged Sykes and Picot (the divvy-uppers) to given them their homelands back but it was ignored.

>Glad the Red Cross are involved with the POWs, its reassuring.

To an extent. The modern Russian state has a history of delay, denial and misdirection when it comes to monitoring bodies. This includes the Red Cross and definitely the OCSE when they were monitoring the Donbas ceasefire.

It is good if the Red Cross has logged who has come out. Specific whereabouts and condition can then be asked about.

AP mentions what has been going on, in amongst everything else under the sun:

apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-putin-kyiv-nato-4cf194da8b1870d26cbedc0a7ec69ed6?

Yeah to an extent only, of course, but at this point I'll take any reassurance I can get.

Euromaidan PR
@EuromaidanPR
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The UK intends to transfer long-range artillery, anti-ship missiles and drones to Ukraine.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson's office reports.

So it seems Erdogan's objection is that Sweden is welcoming to Kurdistan's Workers Party, which Turkey has designated a terrorist organisation. But ... Sweden also considers it a terrorist organisation so not sure what his issue is there. Perhaps it's a smoke screen for his second gripe, Sweden and Finland, like several other European countries, won't sell him weapons after his attack on Western supported Kurds in Syria.

edition.cnn.com/2022/05/18/europe/turkey-nato-finland-sweden-cmd-intl/index.html

Perhaps it's a smoke screen for his second gripe, Sweden and Finland, like several other European countries, won't sell him weapons after his attack on Western supported Kurds in Syria.

I've mentioned it before, I'll mention it again.. plenty of sources and plenty folks, self included reckon his main, first actual gripe is this:

www.aviacionline.com/2022/05/to-approve-sweden-and-finlands-nato-membership-turkey-wants-its-f-35s-back/

Promise him his F-35s in the run up to an election so he can look strong to the electorate when it comes to dealing with the US and any objections to Sweden and Finland joining will disappear overnight.

Your Grandfathers Were Fascists

Ваши деды и были фашистами

I've always had a soft spot for Arkady Babchenko. His 'One Soldier's War' about his service as a Russian soldier in Chechnya is sobering reading. His hitching a lift as a photographer with the Russian 'volunteer' column that headed south into Georgia in 2008 to take South Ossetia captured iconic images. The staged fake assassination in Kyiv was an odder occurrence. He now lives in exile in Kyiv and works in media there.

His heritage is Ukrainian, Russian and Jewish I believe. He was born in Moscow. Like so many involved in the conflict, it's complicated.

His theme in this talk he released today and addresses to Russians is looking back from today's conflict to Red Fascists. He makes the point that what is happening in Ukraine is nothing new. Mention is made of Bulgakov so score there [will return to him one day]. He speaks very clearly so translate within youtube works pretty well on his words. The English subtitles on youtube if you select settings - subtitles - English are reasonably good.

Interesting selection of knives above the flags.

Babchenko's Georgia War images are here:

web.archive.org/web/20080817033813/www.navoine.ru/forum/viewtopic.php?p=551

Warning. There is a lot to download.

This is what Russia thought could be done in Ukraine.

In 2008 a Russian column, with air support, and some Chechens putting the fright up anyone they came close to, headed into an American armed country and swiftly defeated it, taking the areas they wanted and roaming around some that they did not before heading back into captured South Ossetia.

The dead are Georgians. The destroyed vehicles are Georgian. The troops just sitting on top of the vehicles as they invaded (due to nonchalant negligence and faith in air cover) are Russian. Note white arm ties.

There were 'volunteers' in the way that seems to happen in these enterprises. To what extent they are volunteered from regular forces are or patriotic gun toters is at times hard to work out. Naughtily Babchenko volunteered (having already written his war memoir about the horrors of the Chechen war) to document things and uploaded his images as it unfolded.

As we had suspected Azov commanders are still at Azovstal

"I and Azov commanders are on the territory of Azovstal. Certain operation is underway, I will not disclose the details. Thank you world & thank you Ukraine for your support. See you," deputy commander of Azov Sviatoslav Palamar said in a short address

More money set aside for Ukraine and it’s military aid needs.

Well done USA.

The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
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23m
⚡️CNN: Biden announces $100 million military aid for Ukraine.

The security package will include artillery, radars, and other equipment for Ukraine, U.S. President Joe Biden said on May 19, CNN reported.

What the hell is this now? China doing tests to prepare attacks on US bases and Japanese aircraft? Can somebody just spell out for me why it seems like the major world powers are suddenly preparing to attack each other? Or has it always been like this and I've been living under a rock?

twitter.com/tshugart3/status/1527385321897398273?s=21&t=Iz6tKl7Q-if_cjhPkQHvow

'Five scenarios for the War's next phase'

www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-russia-war-end-11652967707

Just caught up. Thank you for this.

To add to the above, from WSJ May 19, 2022 (extracts):

"Senate Passes $40 Billion Aid Package for Ukraine

WASHINGTON—The Senate passed a nearly $40 billion military and economic aid package to help Ukraine repel Russia’s invasion, sending the bill to President Biden’s desk and bringing America’s commitment to almost $54 billion.

The 86-11 vote was overwhelmingly bipartisan, with all Democrats and most Republicans voting yes. The Republicans who opposed the bill cited its price tag and misgivings about long-term involvement in funding a foreign war.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) said he wished the vote was unanimous, and he worried about the message it would send to America’s enemies that it wasn’t. “While senators in both parties want this package done, it is beyond troubling to see a growing circle of Senate Republicans who oppose Ukrainian funding,” Mr. Schumer said.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) in a speech ahead of the vote said that the future of America’s security “will be shaped by the outcome of this fight.” “Anyone concerned about the cost of supporting a Ukrainian victory should consider the much larger cost should Ukraine lose,” he said.

The bill includes about $6 billion to train and supply the Ukrainian military, and about $9 billion to replenish stocks of U.S. weapons sent to Ukraine.

Among the military equipment the U.S. plans to send Ukraine through this latest aid package are 18 howitzers, 18 tactical vehicles to tow the howitzers and 18 artillery tubes, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said Thursday. That brings the total number of U.S. howitzers committed to Ukraine to 108.

About $3.9 billion would go to support intelligence, equipment and hardship pay for troops deployed to the region. The bill also provides humanitarian aid for Ukrainian refugees, about $8.8 billion in economic assistance for the Ukrainian government, and more than $5 billion to alleviate food scarcity and high prices caused by the war.

The Justice Department would get $67 million to help cover the costs of seizing and selling forfeited property such as Russian oligarchs’ yachts or artwork.

In the early days of the war as Russia sought to capture Kyiv, the U.S. provided Ukrainian fighters antiaircraft Stinger and antitank Javelin missiles. As Russia retreated from the capital and the war shifted toward control of the Donbas area, the types of U.S. weapons sent to Ukraine expanded to include Switchblade drones and howitzer heavy artillery.

Throughout the war, the Ukrainians have also needed ammunition, medical supplies and body armor.

Most recently, Ukraine has said it needs more drones and the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS.

In a statement Thursday afternoon, Mr. Biden thanked Democratic and Republican leaders for moving the bill quickly and preventing a lapse in funding for Kyiv..."

🙏Thank you, USA

Or has it always been like this and I've been living under a rock?

Magic ... it has always been like this.

The war, or to be precise the strength of the West's reaction to the war (since there have been others that the West did not get involved in) has just ramped the visibility and the speed up. It doesn't mean we are going to get into a giant world war. It's not impossible, just like it's not impossible that nukes will be used (isn't it about time that the Daily Mail scared us all again btw?) but both are unlikely.

I had a half day today so poked around on Russian social media.

This video is bad. If it is faked, the Russians are better at putting together a display than I would ever give them credit for. Some things have clearly been laid out for the film crew. However, it is probably laying out what was found there.

This video released yesterday is mostly in English and says it is a walk through of the captured Azov HQ just outside Mariupol, as in the city and not the steelworks.

The stickers from about 0:50 to 2;50 on the pulled out drawers are ones I have seen before, or are similar: Nazi, football ultra, Nordic /Runic rubbish. You don't have to agree with anything the video makers say to understand that Azov should never have been allowed to continue within the Ukrainian armed forces after 2014. Even if there are elements of staging in this walk through almost everything here is genuine Azov crap.

When I saw that Aiden Asling was attached to Azov I winced and thought 'why them, what's wrong with you?' There were units with decent back stories he could have joined.

There's a fair bit about sniper rounds in the video which is not in itself a propaganda coup. The Nazi material will help sustain the de-Nazification aspect of the so called Special Military Operation.