Ukraine Invasion: Part 25

[MagicFox]

Hi all, another thread for supporting and sharing

The Ukrainians can't abandon the Azov after everything they've done.

If the Russians do kill the Azovians then it would be a huge PR win for Ukraine world wide actually. (I realise that reads extremely cynical - Im thinking about the appearances NOT the moral aspects. I hope and pray they make it back to Ukraine in one piece. It is a miracle they got out at all).

THIS not nukes is probably the biggest leverage they have now in truth.

I’m not sure about this. I think they are a hot potato , rather than an asset. There are many politicians in Russia baying for their blood, at the same time many realise executions will be a moral disaster.

I would be tempted to kick the matter in the long grass and go for some sort of court eventually.
i

They can’t and won’t give them back to Ukraine.

[controversial POV]

There will be other views on this from those who served but when I signed up it was usually made clear V early on that you were expendable and that your main job in the event of a war was to sell yourself dearly ( 10 them:1 of you was the preferred ratio) .......I rather expect the Azov group who are more than slightly battle hardened than most would have thought similar.

In the context of nukes and bargaining chips would we trade London or Manchester for POWs?...

IMHO if we do start letting the Russians bargaining for serious concessions in exchange for POWs then Ukraine and the west is ultimately utterly screwed in this conflict.....I'm afraid this is one occasion where public opinion might not have to matter that much or even to some extent be ignored...

[/Controversial POV]

Bastards

This is why the Global Seed Bank in Norway is so heavily protected.

Your pov make a lot of sense notimagain. Unfortunately.

I suspect the Azovians talked this over at length knowing just how much you can't trust the Russian govt's word. They still chose this path.

There were never any easy options.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/18/shelling-hits-russian-border-village-sugar-refinery-a77711 [It's a real problem what to do about artillery. If they attack the artillery on the other side of the border of Russia, it's risking inflaming things. But they have to take the artillery out. Tricky one]

Isn't the moral response on this actually the game theory Tit for Tat strategy. See eg www.investopedia.com/terms/t/tit-for-tat.asp

The idea is that you take the moral stance the first round, ie co-operation, but if the other side cheats on you in the first round, you cheat on them in the second, and then you mimic their behaviour in each round until they start co-operating again (but never more than that, ie you do not take "revenge" over an above that). Experiment after experiment show it is the best way to get results over time.

It avoids the appeasement risk - ie that an immoral player on the other side will just take advantage of your morality, which seems to me the flaws in what might be considered the Quaker strategy (there was a discussion of the Quaker position on one of these threads). If you always take the high ground, and co-operate, with an immoral other side, you may feel moral but you will always lose.

In this case, if the Russian artillery is just massing on the border, but not firing, the moral situation would seem to be not to fire over the border (even though the Russians are only doing it to later bring into Ukraine), but if they are firing it from over the border, then tit for tat would mean UA needs to fire back, but only in response, and to the extent that such artillary is being used over the border (rather than trying to hit Moscow).

Agree. You are doing your job if your life is sacrificed for your nation. The Azov troops know this. But you do it on the basis that your country will win and still honour its values and by implication those you leave behind are always protected. It doesn’t always work out that way. Some nations do not look after the families of deceased service personnel.

@Wannago good point ... just wondering if Russia will use it against Ukraine more. But agreed that appeasement is a terrible idea in this case.

I presume the Netherlands have told the Russians that The Hague is available for war crime trials if the Russians are not up for swapping POWs.

BBC News:

"A Russian soldier on trial for war crimes in Ukraine has pleaded guilty to killing an unarmed civilian.
Vadim Shishimarin is accused of gunning down an unarmed 62-year-old civilian in the days after the invasion began and faces life in prison.
Prosecutors say more trials could be forthcoming, after identifying thousands of potential crimes committed by Russian forces. Moscow has denied its troops have targeted civilians."

@notimagain 07:57

ScrollingLeaves had said
”In this invasion it seems really that they are just brave fighters with their personal beliefs, whatever they are, not relevant as such.”

blue had said (I think)
“Problem is (as MMBaranova has rightly pointed out) Azov's early history and some of it's insignia has allowed the Russian spin/PR machine to try and make comparisons between them and the Waffen SS...and that sure as heck will hit a nerve with many Russians.”

The SS were also certainly regarded by many as brave and they most certainly had their personal beliefs, but probably not beliefs many if any here would subscribe to...

If those who were in the steel plant are Nazis, many of us here were thinking of them simply as heroes and hoping they would be saved, whether we personally subscribe to Nazi beliefs or not.

It is in this sense I meant that they seem to have simply been defending Mariupol like any other soldier- whatever their personal beliefs.

❤️‍🩹"Before the war, my son loved to play, jump, laugh. And there he stopped smiling at all, stopped talking. His eyes fell, I thought he would not survive. Now he is better, but still sometimes he remembers something, comes up to me, hugs and cries. And I cry with him."

Miranda, mother of five-year-old Artur from Mariupol.

Illustration by @marta_koshulinska

Euromaidan PR
@EuromaidanPR
·
2h
As a result of an artillery strike by units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Donetsk region, the command post of the 810th separate marine brigade (military unit 13140, Sevastopol) of the Black Sea Fleet was destroyed.
Reported about 3 dead and more than 14 wounded officers.

@Ijsbear How heartbreaking Not too much older than my son. My heart hurts for that mother and all other mothers in war torn countries.

Yeah, it's hard to read

Utterly heartbreaking. There's going to be some many children growing up with severe trauma, the knock-on impact of that will be a lifetime.

*so many not some many

It won't last a lifetime if the children are able to access proper help for this. There is an organisation who specialises in helping children who have experienced war etc, and they have explained this, it is a matter of helping children to process what they have experienced as one event of their childhood rather than being the event which was their childhood and which lingered into adulthood. I saw an interview in February, they were training up staff to work on across borders.

But in a world so unstable how can we reassure children that they will never experience such trauma again, that it's the past? That their lifetime won't be spent waiting for it to happen again?

I'm glad to hear that, I hope as many children as possible can access that help. I wonder what host countries are doing to help children (and adults too) with their trauma? Especially when mental health services are overstretched already in many countries. Suppose charities stepping in there too?

@whenwillwegetthereholly I'm so glad to hear that there is ~effective~ treatment now for children who have gone through war. The need will be so huge, I really hope a lot of children can access the help.

Magic I think that once you know that your world can be torn apart you never quite forget it. it changes you. But you can go on and it can become part of your experience and life can rich and rewarding.

It isn't to do with telling a child it won't happen again. It is to do with helping a child process what has happened in a particular way.

But you are right, the more there is threat of world war and the more economies across the globe are rocked the worse the instability gets.

Quote:
I'm glad to hear that, I hope as many children as possible can access that help. I wonder what host countries are doing to help children (and adults too) with their trauma? Especially when mental health services are overstretched already in many countries. Suppose charities stepping in there too?

I completely agree with you, in relation overstretched MH services. And this applies to so many other services in different countries. The organisation was a not for profit organisation I think, you are right.

I think the Azov may feel like that. However its not purely about how they feel now.

We are into the massive symbolism of this. Zelensky being seen to abandon them is a political event that would have ramifications. There was an interview with the Governors of some of the occupied areas - I think it was Donbas and Luhansk regions (or it may have been a particular city). They made the point that whilst they wanted to defend the land, they were primarily governors of people not tombstones. And that protecting the people always had to come first.

So I think that the military would have one view on this, but politicians another - for a variety of reasons. I don't think anyone is wrong, not do I think its controversial to express that opinion. I think it really highlights the sheer awful impossible choices ahead.

I also think you have the situation of the Ukrainians trying the Russians for waar crimes. Again you've got a bargining to get the charges dropped or for them to be exchanged if convicted.