Ukraine Invasion: Part 25

[MagicFox]

Hi all, another thread for supporting and sharing

😂

I guess they’re following the example of Turkey to use S and F application to NATO as a bargaining tool to be used.

The Croatian President had previously wanted to do this, but the prime minister said its not up to the President but to the Parliament and the Parliament will approve the application but I guess he's seeing the opportunity now to try again.

A little digression:
The leader of the band Okean Eltsy arranged a special private performance for troops. He is singing a ballad like song.

MMBaranova posted some of the bands videos a while back.

Ukrainian rock star performs for troops; music lifts wartime spirits - The Washington Post

www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/18/ukraine-rock-star-performs-for-troops/

@ScrollingLeaves Yes Ive seen that reported too about the 1000 left including senior commanders.

twitter.com/BohdanKrotevych/status/1526961319760564230?t=slriqMB0y3-_AOvGGrviHQ&s=19

Sorry, no context.
Twitter feed of Azov chief of staff confirming they are still in Azovstal

I'd seen that too Wakey it is possible that the injured, police, marines and conscripts etc have left and Azov remains.

Where does Bohdan Krotecych get his endless supply of fags?

This is not news to me. I had tallied in my mind there were hundreds more left back and after the 264 left yesterday. Some of the reporting (externally, not here) is very poor. Question everything !

I thought there were still about 700-900. Many of those are non-military medics. They left the hospitals to go in early on before Mariupol was surrounded. A very small minority still there are the civilian wives of the soldiers there. I believe the children all left some time ago. All of this is from my mental tally, and I could be wrong. Silence is sometimes worth pausing for.

I am not going to jump too hastily to this news. He has done it for a reason and we should pause and understand why. Turkey is pivotal to this century not just geographically but also culturally. We know that terrorists have refuge in European countries and if Turkey has some concerns here for the region I would like to know more.

Not sure this is the thread to have a discussion about the Kurds but you should be aware that many people think that the Kurds are being treated by Turkey the way Russia wants to treat the Ukranians.

LIke everything, it is of course exceedingly complex, but Turkey was a major empire before it fell apart, and some bits didn't manage to get free of it. The Kurds, whose history seems to stretch back to the time of the ancient Persians - you know "the Medes and the Persians" - many believe that the Kurds are descended from the Medes.
This is what Wikipedia says about it:
"After World War I and the defeat of the Ottoman Empire, the victorious Western allies made provision for a Kurdish state in the 1920 Treaty of Sèvres. However, that promise was broken three years later, when the Treaty of Lausanne set the boundaries of modern Turkey and made no such provision, leaving Kurds with minority status in all of the new countries. Recent history of the Kurds includes numerous genocides and rebellions, along with ongoing armed conflicts in Turkish, Iranian, Syrian, and Iraqi Kurdistan. Kurds in Iraq and Syria have autonomous regions, while Kurdish movements continue to pursue greater cultural rights, autonomy, and independence throughout Kurdistan."

Or, from a quick Google search:
"The Kurds are a group of people in the Middle East who speak related dialects and share an ethnic identity. With a population of approximately 30 million, the Kurds are the largest ethnic group in the world without their own state."

You might also want to do some reading about Erdogan - but again, there is certainly a view that he is a Putin wannabe.

I definitely agree that Turkey is pivotal this century, and I am always in favour of knowing more - but, like with Ukraine, you need not just to skim the surface, otherwise you might end up with the equivalent of Putin propaganda.

Today is Field Marshall Suvorov's death day (well, it depends on Old Style v New Style and my brain is too fried to sort it out). He was a feted Seven Years War Russian leader.

This was his monument in Izmail (right down on the Danube opposite Romania) in a picture circulated on 7th May.

And yes, there are still Ukrainian troops in Mariupol. I do not pretend to know what is going on there for sure and what the evacuation/surrender was about. Sending out wounded I can understand but most did not seem to be.

I dipped in and out of LiveJournal for a few minutes. Remember the blogging site that mostly faded away, but was taken up by many in Russia?

This post caught my eye from an account where there are multiple posts per day, mostly about the war in Ukraine and from a Russian perspective. I don't know whether the poster is a enthusiastic amateur, paid propagandist or what, but it is a good example of a pro-Russian poster who thinks things are going well. Yes they exist. That's in contrast to say Igor Girkin who keeps saying they are not.

kot-sapog.livejournal.com/17060904.html

The opening paragraph is wrong over the complete surrender at Mariupol. The maps repeatedly show Ukrainian troops being encircled - according to the poster. It's in Russian, but click translate and it will make good sense.

Thank you MMBarannova. That is an impressive protest work of bloodied washing machine and lavatory at the foot of Field Marshall Suvorov’s monument. Imagine taking the trouble to get them there.

It is interesting to read that Russian propaganda congratulatory blog about the success of the first stage of their special operation. I would feel convinced if you hadn’t said that’s what it is, and feel that talk about blocking off access to Odesa from the north-east is concerning. It is noticeable. They don’t mention the Russian loss at the failed pontoon crossing though which is some ommision.

More than 900 Ukrainian troops from Azovstal sent to a prison colony in Russia

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/18/ukraine-mariupol-azovstal-soldiers-russia?utm_term=6285c0c41a9710ee965d8fa52b1ac7f0&utm_campaign=GuardianTodayUK&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&CMP=GTUK_email

sorry, a Russian-controlled area

Sending them to Olenivka is important as it keeps them in Donetsk Oblast. A myth of Russian 'intervention' in Donbas in 2014 is that they are only supporting a legitimate breakaway by Donetsk Oblast as the Donetsk People's republic. Mariupol is in Donetsk Oblast and has now been 'liberated'. The legitimate authority there, is in Russia's storytelling, the DPR.

This now gives Russia the ability to ask for 'extradition' if they wish, but perhaps more importantly allows 'justice' to be sub-contacted to the DPR. If they get it wrong, perhaps by being too harsh, then that's down to them.

Footage just appeared on-line (twitter) which appears to show of what purports to be an ICRC reps visit to some Azovstal fighters now being held POWs..

twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1527171732112609280?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1527171732112609280%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

Good news if it's true, but pinch of salt probably needed for now

I have read that the Red Cross and the UN are being fully involved by the Russians in relation to the military surrendering, in the same way as they were involved with civilian evacuation. I live in a EU country, and our media coverage is slightly different from that in UK. It should be fairly easy for you to confirm, I think a lot of information will not be available for a while, other than the official statements from Ukraine and Russia governments, but I think RC and UN would be able to confirm that they are involved, though I might be wrong.

“. I live in a EU country”

likewise 🙂

, “and our media coverage is slightly different from that in UK”

Yep, I know….

But FWIW that ICRC/POW coverage is straight link copy from twitter, not UK MSM.

ICRC tend to have to be quite diplomatic about a lot of what they do so whether they will directly release any info relating to the video ???

Bit of a segue but I thought a lot of you would be interested in this podcast episode on autocratic leaders and the sudden rise of 'strong men'. There's some really interesting stuff about the west and China in here as well as a stark warning about the dangers associated with Trump getting re-elected. Please God let's hope that doesnt happen!

podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-bunker/id1496246490?i=1000562417076

notimagain
I doubt they be releasing any info about the video, or anything else in terms of details. Just to confirm they are involved.

Though as I say I might be wrong!

A question I had missed from Hillsmakeyoustrong:

Can I ask, do you know if there was there a significant divide in Mariupol itself between pro Russia and pro Ukraine citizens?

I’m really not sure.

In terms of languages, prior to the 2002 war the split was nearly 60%, Ukrainian, a third Russian, and 4% Greeks then others. As a general rule ‘pro Russians’ will be found within the Russian speakers [this is a complex issue and I’ll return to it at some point, it generally doesn’t mean wanting to be a part of Russia, and see my oligarch case study in this post].

Turning to the election results from 2019 you need to look for the parties Opposition Platform – For Life and Opposition Bloc to find Russia aligned votes. Nationally they got 13 and 3% respectively of the list votes.

Ukraine has a two vote system for a Rada election. One goes to a national list of half the seats. Parties are allocated seats proportional to vote if they reach 5% threshold. The other goes to a first part the post mandate (constituency). Some seats were not contested as they were in occupied areas. Local independent candidates often get elected in the single mandates, often because they are a local name, especially oligarchs.

Opposition Platform – For Life came first in free Donetsk Oblast (seats are allocated at national level from a closed list as in Israel) and won both the constituencies for Mariupol city. In the suburban / fringe areas I see an Opposition Bloc and an Independent winner.

So that skews pro-Russia? Over half the population speaks Ukrainian as a first language? Hmm.

It’s complicated. Take one of the city Rada members (MPs). Vadym Novynskyi was born in northern Russia, became a Ukrainian citizen, was an MP in Sevastopol but was banned by Russia from returning there and has declared against the Russian invasion. Remember he is an Opposition Platform – For Life MP, a grouping that is supposedly pro-Russian. It’s complicated. He is worth a billion dollars or more. Wikipedia has an interesting summary.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vadym_Novynskyi

That would be my understanding of how it might well be handled, especially if the ICRC want further/continued access to prisoners during this conflict.

One saving grace is that the raw video in itself might at least provide proof of life of some POWs.