Ukraine Invasion: Part 25

[MagicFox]

Hi all, another thread for supporting and sharing

@blueshoes · 17/05/2022 15:54

Wakeywakeysleepyhead

“There's an interview with an advisor to Zelensky on R4 World at One this lunchtime. He confirms that there are still fighters in the steelworks. It is a deeply depressing interview. Starts at 12.20 into the program.

www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m0017cmb”

Wakey will you or someone be able to summarise the gist? I cannot get in.

I have listened, but not taken notes so I hope you can get in to listen later.

We start by hearing that Mariupol has fallen. Of the latest evacuation of about 250 soldiers from the steel plant after 80 days so finally leaving Russia less caught up in that area. There is a lot of fighting in the east and south east with Ukraine apparently gaining some ground.

Then there is the interview with Zalensky’s adviser. He confirmed the soldiers who had been evacuated, many of them wounded. He said there were also some remaining more or less in good shape. The plan was that the evacuated ones would be taken to Russian held territory then released as part of a prisoner exchange. But he confirmed that they were now trying to deal with Russia reneging on that agreement. When asked if Ukraine was winning he said it was too early to say.

Then Andrey Kortunov (Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) and a member of the expert and supervisory committees and boards of trustees of several Russian and international organizations.) came on. He said that the Russians would want to use the Azovstal soldiers for propaganda in Russia and treat them as war criminals for the atrocities they were thought to have committed ( no examples were given). He said the regiment is known by Russia as being neo-nazis.

He was also asked if was true that Putin would be taking part in decision making. He answered that yes he would be micro managing and as head of command (?) that was natural.

This is only the bare bones. I hope anyone else who heard this will add other points or correct this account as they see fit.

Do listen if you can because it was all interesting.

Im afraid the latest news supports this view

⚡️Russian parliament to consider ban on exchanging Azov POWs.

Russia’s parliament will consider banning the exchange of Russian prisoners of war for captured members of the Azov regiment, Russian state-controlled RIA Novosti reported.

On May 26, the Russian Supreme Court will consider recognizing Azov as a terrorist organization.

264 Ukrainian soldiers, including Azov fighters, were evacuated from the Azovstal plant in Mariupol to the Russian-occupied territory. Ukraine said they would be exchanged for Russian POWs.

Where is the UN, they should be all over this and the Red Cross

And Turkey who offered to take them to Istanbul and keep them there should be appalled. It shows disrespect to all the outside agencies who were trying to help.

What specifically are the war crimes they are alleged to have committed?

I forgot to say that during that interview Andrey Kortunov did say that proving Nazi-ism is difficult in his opinion.

ScrollingLeaves, that is a great summary. I will try and get in later to listen to the full version.

Scrutiny by NATO and the wider world is presumably one of the main things keeping Putin from killing the Mariupol POWs or reneging from the swap. It is dispiriting to think that the POWs will be used as pawns in a sick hysterical nazi propaganda farce for the Russian domestic audience instead.

It does not bode well. I don't think Putin can expect any face-saving off ramp if he does this. NATO should go in a personally smash his soggy face.

I believe Russia is only contravening the agreement in a limited and specific way.

What happened to the two British fighters captured at Mariupol?

in what way is it limited? (genuine question).

is the exception they are talking about specificially for the Azovians?

We don't actually know what the agreement was, in fact. Not the specifics

Given Russian behavior so far there’s not much the UN, ICRC etc can do other than make lots of noise/mobilize public opinion in Russia…good luck….

I’d have to check, open to correction, but AFAIK whilst the various Geneva Conventions lay down how POWs (injured or not) should be treated there is nothing in those documents that demands POWs (certainly fit ones) should or must be repatriated prior to the end of a conflict, so if any swap has been agreed it will be a local agreement/arrangement and then of course relies on goodwill (plus) on both sides.

I'm on android. I simply use the internet browser and don't bother with an app. Seems like its a wise move.

I think this is worth a read or certainly some discussion: "Pretending Western interests are fully aligned with Kyiv’s risks further escalating the war."

twitter.com/evansryan202/status/1526553765595205634?s=21&t=VS6nui0vErPnhMbR3NsY0g

A video of Aiden Aslin was posted two days ago. He actually looked better than he had done previously (though he'd looked dreadful in earlier videos).

Aiden Aslin and Sean Pinner have been formally charged with crimes which carry the death penalty in the DPR though.

There has been a lot of talk about this and how the Russians intend to hold fake 'human rights' war crimes show trials like Nuremberg.

Even being charged in this way does suggest they intend to go through with it.

Ukraninan sources have now seeming to confirm the rumour that they have crossed the river and are just 7km from Volchansk - the key railway point which is the main supply route from Belgorod to Izyum. This is significant if indeed true.

‼️The Minister of Defense of Ukraine stated that the war is entering a protracted phase:

"According to many indications, Russia is preparing for a long-term military operation.
The war is entering a protracted phase. We see how in the Kherson region, in the Zaporizhzhya region, the Russian invaders are actively carrying out engineering and fortification work to move to defense if necessary. "

Also, according to Ukrainian intelligence, Russia is using about 167,000 personnel against Ukraine, including reserves.

The invaders deployed 91 BTGs to take part in attacks.
They can draw another 55 BTGs from the reserve and after recovery within 1-2 months.

I've done this long before the update. The app just never worked for me the way it did on iOS.

This is so depressing.

I am particularly sad that Kherson seems to now be under full Russian occupation whilst Ukraine forces prioritise Kharkiv instead.

Question for military types: Isn't it very hard to get rid of Russian occupiers after they have built concrete fortifications, put Russian settlors into apartments and taken over civic administration.

How would Ukraine even begin to do that? If they use firepower that is coming from US, UK and Western allies, they could end up killing their own civilians living in the city.

@blueshoes

*I am particularly sad that Kherson seems to now be under full Russian occupation whilst Ukraine forces prioritise Kharkiv instead.

Question for military types: Isn't it very hard to get rid of Russian occupiers after they have built concrete fortifications, put Russian settlors into apartments and taken over civic administration.

How would Ukraine even begin to do that? If they use firepower that is coming from US, UK and Western allies, they could end up killing their own civilians living in the city.*

Not a military type, but I would assume that is why UA have prioritised Kharkiv over Kherson. Kherson was taken early on in the war, when they could not be stopped. If you had to make a choice between trying to get rid of the occupiers in Kherson, but risk Kharkiv falling to the same fate, or prioritise protecting Kharkiv, and one didn't have the forces to do both, then probably the only sensible decision is to prioritise Kharkiv precisely because of that difficulty.

It is a bit like triage in a medical context, you have to make decisions about limited resources where lives are at stake.

I just keep hoping that soon Kharkiv will become very safe and they will be able to turn the focus of their military elsewhere.

There's also geographical/terrain challenges around Kherson that aren't there around Kharkiv. Arestovych, (freelance?) adviser to Zelensky said Ukrainian soldiers were able to recapture Kharkiv with light infantry, but they will need tanks and other heavy equipment for Kherson.

I guess they could try and cut off Kherson from supply lines and isolate it, like Russians did to Mariupol. Except I don't think Russians will have the morale to fight till the bitter end. Maybe leave one escape route and guard it so that no one gets in, only out.

Kharkiv is also the 2nd biggest city. More people.

🇪🇺The European Commission has developed a strategic plan for the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine called "Rebuild Ukraine" for hundreds of billions of euros.

The plan foresees that the Ukrainian government will fight corruption and fraud, carry out reforms, bring Ukrainian legislation closer to EU laws, etc.

The plan states that Ukraine needs at least 10 years and hundreds of billions of euros to rebuild.
The main principle of Ukraine's reconstruction should be "to do better than it was".

Decisions on this project are due to be approved on May 18.

Interesting that plans are bieng made for post -war reconstruction. At this point there seems to be a lot of faith that the Ukrainians will win.

This amuses me greatly.

Remember the threats threats and more threats about Finland and Sweden joining NATO?

The nuclear threats that got people worried?

well .... May 17 (Reuters) - Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday that Finland and Sweden joining NATO would probably make "not much difference" as the two countries had long participated in the alliance's military drills

www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-lavrov-says-finland-sweden-joining-nato-makes-no-big-difference-2022-05-17/?taid=628370ff8664e80001980424&utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

Now: www.reuters.com/markets/europe/neutral-switzerland-leans-closer-nato-response-russia-2022-05-15/

"Vladimir Khokhlov, spokesman for the Russian embassy in Bern, said such measures would amount to a radical change of policy for Switzerland. Moscow would "not be able to ignore" an eventual renunciation of neutrality, which would have consequences, Khokhlov said. He did not provide further details."

wheee, here we go again!

Wannago, Owlsdance and ljsbear, thank you for the insightful explanation of the difference in defending Kherson v Kharkiv.

I cannot bear the idea of the Russian occupation and what atrocities the Russians would inflict every single day to the people of Kherson and the city under the cover of their occupation. Just want them out pdq.

@MagicFox I don't think our help to Ukraine is entirely altruistic however. There is a large element of "if we tolerate this, who will be next? It could at some point be us".

The alternative to supporting Ukraine is down the line to face a progressive subjugation of Europe to Russia.

That course would carry its own risk of nuclear warfare if any resistance were to be met.

@RedToothBrush · 17/05/2022 18:16

Aiden Aslin and Sean Pinner have been formally charged with crimes which carry the death penalty in the DPR though.

There has been a lot of talk about this and how the Russians intend to hold fake 'human rights' war crimes show trials like Nuremberg.

Even being charged in this way does suggest they intend to go through with it.

Do you know what specific crimes they are charged with?

For example in the same way that, in the case of the Russian soldier we saw recently, we have been told he is accused of shooting a particular unarmed Ukrainian civilian. I do not know what evidence the Ukrainian court has but we were told that they think it would hold up in a European court.