Ukraine Invasion: Part 25

[MagicFox]

Hi all, another thread for supporting and sharing

Oops Sorry RTB.

Aaron69 a lovely post.

MMBaranova Good.

I hope the shock has really, really shaken him to the core and given him breath quickening, moaning, soul-shattering, haunting and desperate nightmares. So many dead, for nothing.

Igor Girkin / Strelkov, an evil man from the 2014 fighting, seems to be writing perceptive Russian-side analysis of the recent debacles.

The final panel of translated commentary attached. He knows Russian forces are close to stalling.

I followed a lot of his deeds and utterances back in the ATO era. He has always seemed candid, if twisted.

Significant effect for Russia on access to the Baltic Sea of Finland and Sweden joining. Before now F and S could detect Russian submarines going into the Baltic but had no necessity to inform NATO. If they are accepted, now they do. Russian submarines (and they have relatively a lot) cannot travel in this area unknown any more. This isn't small.

twitter.com/tomiahonen/status/1525922514173673472

Actually in terms of Russia attempting any other war towards the West in the near to medium future, now Finland and Sweden want to join NATO they are in a much worse position when you look at the Kola peninsula and resupplies. Between the Baltic closing and the Kola rail/road links being so vulnerable, they have lost at least two Rooks and perhaps a Queen and Rook.

I totally agree with this. It has been dawning on me the last few days. Some necessary introspection will be taking place. It must be deeply wounding and a point at which Putin and his closest circle will reach rock bottom.

Thank you Aaron69 for putting into words how I feel everyday for Ukraine's lonely heroism and sacrifice whilst the world watches from their sofas.

I am sorry ... if I had my way ... but no ... keep fighting ... here more weapons ... we will make it up to you one day.

I just feel so sorry we could not help now and more.

Not sure they'll be letting him anywhere near the media in future probably already locked up he spoke too much truth and his fellow talking heads looked very uncomfortable/gobsmacked!
Interesting that the female pundit was talking about a lack of moral and under funding in the Ukrainian army, they have their propaganda and we have ours I guess, but it stands to reason the army defending their country from an aggressor are going to fight like lions whilst the Russian army must be increasingly thinking 'what the fuck are we doing here?'.

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1526321105916641281

Kamil Galeev on Mikhail Khodaryonok - the guy who was on russia tv tonight saying it was fucked.

Others have made the point that this guy said Russia was fucked on 3rd Feb BEFORE the invasion. The TV producers would have known his views but STILL chose to put him on TV.

Alexander Clarkson AT APHClarkson
Khodaryonok worked in the Operational Command of the General Staff under Yeltsin and has been a defence journo for years. State media editors will known his views, and that he won't be touched because of his former role, but invited him on anyway. As interesting as his comments

Khodaryonok is speaking with the honesty of a man whose career is behind him but still enjoys military krysha.

ISW AT TheStudyofWar
Southern Axis Update:

#Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Ukrainian forces struck a #Russian ammunition depot in #Chornobaivka again, likely near the #Kherson City Airport.

Chornobaivka. Again. Cos. Yeah. Whats that? 20th? 21st?

ISW Key Takeaways

Russian and Ukrainian authorities negotiated the evacuation of 264 wounded Ukrainian servicemen from the Azovstal Steel Plant on May 16.

Ukrainian forces reached the Russian border north of Kharkiv City.

Russian forces continued unsuccessful ground operations in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and did not make any confirmed advances on May 16.

Russian forces continued to fortify their positions in Zaporizhia Oblast.

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The Kyiv Independent, [17/05/2022 06:04]
⚡️ Ukraine destroys Russian fuel depot near Chornobaivka, Kherson Oblast.

The Kyiv Independent, [17/05/2022 04:40]
⚡️ UNICEF: Russia’s war may lead to ‘catastrophic levels’ of malnutrition among children globally.

⚡️ Governor: Russia targets military facility in Lviv Oblast near Polish border.

The explosions heard earlier on May 17 targeted the Yavoriv District's military training ground but were successfully deterred. The facility was previously targeted and severely damaged by Russian forces on May 15. (they have it in for this place, wonder why).

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UkraineNOW

News of the night that you may have missed:

▪️Overnight, Russian missiles bombarded Lviv and the surrounding area. Military infrastructure was reportedly destroyed in the Yavorivskiy area, which is close to the Polish border.

▪️Ukrainian military have captured an enemy gasoline and lubricant store in the east of the country, as well as 29 Russians, a Strila-10 surface-to-air missile system, a T-72 tank, and other armoured vehicles. The Operational Command Pyvden confirmed this.

▪️In a procedural vote, the US Senate approved a $40 billion aid package for Ukraine. The bill is anticipated to pass the Senate tomorrow.

▪️Following Russia's military engagement in Ukraine, US senators have begun crafting legislation that would allow courts to examine charges of military wrongdoing even if none of the parties involved is citizens of the United States.

▪️The bill was sent to the New York Times, according to the newspaper.
Ukraine and Japan have agreed to a loan of 13 billion yen (100 million dollars). The funds will be utilised to "strengthen demonopolization and anti-corruption institutions, land and credit markets, and social protection," according to the announcement.

Ukraine NOW [English], [17/05/2022 07:08]
❗️The operational update regarding the Russian_invasion on 06.00 on May 17, 2022.

▪️In the Lyman direction, Russian enemy conducted offensive operations in the area of the settlement of Drobysheve. Strengthens troop groups.

▪️In the Severodonetsk direction, near the settlement of Sirotyne, Russian enemy suffered losses during the fighting and withdrew. ️In the Bakhmut direction, Russian enemy fought in the direction of the settlement of Vyskryva, had no success. ️In the Avdiivka direction, Russian occupiers fought in the direction of the settlement of Kamyanka, and also had no success. In the Kurakhiv direction, the enemy launched an offensive in the direction of the settlement of Vuhledar, but had no success. (so nice to read the repetition of 'had no success').

▪️In the Bessarabian direction, as a result of a missile strike from Russian strategic aircraft, in the Belgorod-Dniester district of Odesa region, objects of civil infrastructure were affected, private buildings were destroyed.

▪️In the waters of the Black Sea, near the island of Snake, noted the conduct of hoisting and rescue operations at the site of the destruction of the Russian landing craft. (it looks like they really want to keep Snake Island. Given that the war isn't going the way they want I wonder if they want to keep it so they can shell Kherson, if it gets to the point that the Ukrainians are fighting to retake it. They have been creating layered defenselines around the city).

▪️Eleven enemy attacks were repulsed in Donetsk and Luhansk over the past 24 hours, five tanks, one Tor anti-aircraft missile system, six artillery systems, twelve units of armoured combat vehicles and one enemy vehicle were destroyed.

Morning

Apologies if this has already been flagged up: snippet from Russian State TV.

If it is as appears some in Russia do have some insight into what is going on.

Interesting to see the presenter trying to keep conversation on approved lines/keep her job/avoid a trip to the Gulags.

twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1526329765065539592?t=owF0dEpGyfTbxfQqJV-Vtw&s=19

And this became clear to the rest of the world in the first few weeks of the war, when the mighty Russian army that rolled into Ukraine turned out to be considerably less mighty than we were expecting. But it’s taken Putin this long to realise because he has presided over a system in which information gets degraded as it moves upwards and nobody wants to be the person that tells him it’s not all as good as it’s supposed to be.
Meanwhile having better information about the enemy has given Ukraine an advantage.

Eliot A Cohen AT eliotACohen
Talked to a senior government official who assures me that is not the case — other, more mechanical/procedural issues being worked out.
Still, it would be very good to get HIMARS over there ASAP to enable Ukraine to liberate occupied territory and defeat a weakening Russian army

Phillips P OBrien AT PhillipsPObrien
Really interesting from AT EliotACohen and shows important prep by the Ukrainians to keep having a significant range advantage over the Russians going forward. There has been growing talk about Ukraine getting HIMARs (long range rocket artillery)

HIMARS systems have a range of between 70km to 400km depending on the ammunition used. Basically the Ukrainians could hit anything in occupied Ukraine with the system.

Pentagon anon briefing yesterday made some coy hints that Ukraine and USA are discussing the transfer of the system.

Here is the exact answer to the question about the HIMAR transfer, prompted by the fact that Senator McConnell mentioned the possibility of the transfer recently.

Does seem to be momentum on this, and clearly would fit into Ukrainian plans to outrange the Russians. Certainly if they get HIMARS and Russian offensives end and the situation becomes static, this system would provide Ukraine the ability to destroy high value targets anywhere.

Other interesting thing from the briefing was small hints on the use of US howitzers. They are defintely in action. The official did say that 74 of the 90 are in Ukraine and in action.

The Ukrainians prioritised some for their attacks around Kharkiv. Shows what a high priority this is for them. Once they clean out the areas around Kharkiv, will be interesting to see where they send them. Having that range advantage really helps, obviously.

Outrange the Russians. It seems nuts not to have already done this tbh

www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/17/putin-involved-in-tactical-decision-making-in-east-ukraine-reports-a77699

Reports byt the Guardian and the Times that: -

Both publications reported that Putin is still working closely with top general Valery Gerasimov, contrary to earlier reports of him being sidelined due to military blunders.

"We think Putin and Gerasimov are involved in tactical decision making at a level we would normally expect to be taken by a colonel or a brigadier," a source was quoted as saying.

It goes on to say that the Ukranians who fled to Russia after 2014 sold the FSB a heavily overinflated idea of how pro-Russia the Ukrainians are.

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kyivindependent.com/
Ukraine to establish fund to assist women previously in Russian captivity, orphans. Establishment of the Klymentii Sheptytsky Foundation to support women and children affected by Russia’s war.

UNICEF: Russia’s war may lead to ‘catastrophic levels’ of malnutrition among children globally. Rising food prices due to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, among other factors, may leave up to 600,000 children without life-saving treatment. (Yellen is going to unveil a plan about this).

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Ukraine seizes $420 million in frozen assets linked to Russian oligarchs.

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everyone knows by now but still:

www.rferl.org/a/azovstal-evacuate-mariupol-ukraine/31854197.html
The Ukrainian military says it is working to extract its remaining forces from the Azovstal steel plant, their last stronghold in the besieged city of Mariupol, ceding control of the city after months of Russian bombardment that has reduced the strategic Sea of Azov port to ruins and killed thousands of civilians.

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Euromaidan PR
@EuromaidanPR
·
3h
More good news--the US Senate voted overwhelmingly on a new $40 billion aid package for Ukraine, and now it goes to President Biden for his signature. This ensures the continued pipeline of weapons to crush the enemy.
Thank you USA (it passed!)

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That Russian TV snippet linked by @notimagain - Ms Blue Outfit looked very pissed off by what was being said, whether because she's worrying about the Gulags or because she's bought into the propaganda is hard to tell.

Really interesting analysis by the colonel. I hope he's right.

About the HIMARS - they would make attacking the Russian installations on Snake Island easier? Or would defense measures stop them reaching it?

It'#s a miracle about Mariupol. An absolute miracle.

Outrange the Russians. It seems nuts not to have already done this tbh

We're talking advanced kit (compared with things like rifles/mortars/ammunition, even NLAW if we think operator skills))..so just like the arguments we had weeks ago about "where are the MiGs" it's down to things like (and this is not an exhaustive list):

Have the West/NATO/others got enough of these fancy weapons in stock to release some to Ukraine?

Time needed to train Ukraine forces on the kit (both the operators and the maintainers).

Time needed to make sure the logistics set up (in Ukraine and elsewhere) can support the equipment when it's in the field...

Making sure the Ukrainians have the ability/intelligence to actually hit targets well beyond visual range.

It's another example of how waging warfare and winning isn't as simple a task as some pundits/academics try to make it sound....

Btw its worth reading about how Sri Lanka default and now subsequent crisis is playing out. Its truly terrifying. Yesterday the country announced it had run out of petrol.

Don't underestimate the BoE saying about apocalyptic food prices in this context.

It will hit elsewhere first, but supply chains and logistics (anyone familiar with discussions related to brexit on this topic should be worried).

Its scary. Really scary.

Argument comes back to why didn't they start the process a month ago...

She was one of the most vocal about nuking us all a few weeks ago, I think. He made her look quite foolish in that context.

We don't know that they haven't. We do know that training of Ukrainian forces has restarted.

The stock/logistics/intelligence issues aren't ones that would be solved in a short time frame, though.

My thanks to all the contributors on these threads, I have found them insightful, balanced and sometimes witty. I have nothing to add apart from a picture of this bin where I was happy to add some dog shit.

Sweden struggle to tell the difference between Russian submarines and farting herrings though. So NATO may not take any reports too seriously.