Ukraine Invasion: Part 25

[MagicFox]

Hi all, another thread for supporting and sharing

In his video yesterday Arestovych said that the whole recapture of Kharkiv was done by Ukrainian light infantry, without any heavy equipment. They will need it for counterattacks in the east and south though, where it's flat. He also said they are already getting fresh supplies in, without the lend lease.

The Russians won't know what's hit them.

@RedToothBrush

Argument comes back to why didn't they start the process a month ago...

And I'm afraid I have to say the response to that is how do you know it didn't?

The early priority in this was was stopping the armour - the Ukrainians were given kit PDQ to help them do that.

It's only now you might start to see evidence of heavier equipment arriving in theatre...but the "processes" behind that supply will have started a couple months back...

Based on my recollection, the UK said it was to start providing training on long range artillery in early April. Where? Not a clue but possibly eastern Europe, but do not rule out the UK. Getting the systems into Ukraine and a maintenance and support programme is a stepped uplift as @notimagain says. This is not going to get done overnight.

@toastfiend

The stock/logistics/intelligence issues aren't ones that would be solved in a short time frame, though.

Agreed, it's the little things involved in the supply chain that can screw you up (cf. Chinese tyres).

Interesting discussion at times on this sort of thing on another more specialist forum.. One hypothetical (or not example) issue that has come up is the problem of NATO containerised equipment wearing NATO inventory numbers being delivered to warehouses in (non NATO) Ukraine....

One consequence of the war in Ukraine will be to expose how precarious worldwide supply of food (and other key goods) is at present. Over the last forty years we have become used to food being in relatively plentiful supply, even in the developing world. The reality is that this has often been the product of short-termist decisions, and increased reliance on fertilisers (particularly phosphates). Remember when Saudi Arabia was the sixth largest exporter of wheat in the world? That was 1992, and I probably don’t need to explain why that was unsustainable.

Understandably, there are more than a few countries right now which are concerned as to food security. We recently saw India’s export ban on wheat, whilst the floods of 2021 caused China to double their grain imports to 28m tons (largely from Ukraine; probably another reason why Chinese support for Russia has been a bit lukewarm). We are unlikely to see the full impacts of the war until the end of this year, but Ukrainian grain production will certainly be down, and the conflict in the south of the country is likely to disrupt export routes. The consequences of this war may well be felt worldwide.

@TargusEasting

Based on my recollection, the UK said it was to start providing training on long range artillery in early April. Where? Not a clue but possibly eastern Europe, but do not rule out the UK. Getting the systems into Ukraine and a maintenance and support programme is a stepped uplift as @notimagain says. This is not going to get done overnight.

Interesting, thanks...there have been hints in places that the French may well be training /have been training Ukraine personnel to operate the Caesar system outside of the Ukraine.

Not sure how accurate it is 🤔but FWIW there's a French language article here which in part covers the subject of the "new" artillery..

korii.slate.fr/tech/ukraine-artillerie-longue-portee-caesar-m177-m-109-ravages-duel-pentagone-strategie-recherche-hypersonique

Sri Lanka is /was an amazing tourist destination, what is happening is dreadful, would you like to the article please @RedToothBrush?

Sorry that should read
Link

@Ijsbear · 17/05/2022 07:56
About the HIMARS - they would make attacking the Russian installations on Snake Island easier? Or would defense measures stop them reaching it?

It'#s a miracle about Mariupol. An absolute miracle.

Yes, it is. That photo of the Azovstal soldier in the beam of light.
But now let’s pray the evacuees will be decently treated and one day get home. And that those remaining also get out.

Another miracle would be if everyone in Russia were to take heed of what that Russian ex military seer said on Russian state TV, and just leave Ukraine the sooner to rebuild their country in a new direction.

Hope the prisoner exchange goes well and none of the surrendering soldiers get mistreated (slim hope I suppose)

The food thing is very worrying.

One consequence of the war in Ukraine will be to expose how precarious worldwide supply of food (and other key goods) is at present. and someone else made hte same point.

I remember having an argument with someone who thought that the world was doing really well and slowly moving towards a unity, and that science could solve global warming.

This war, more than COVID, again brings home to me the reality that the world is so interdependent that we live in a very, very fragile global construction.

That photo is beautiful and sad, and should be turned into a poster or something that people can buy to contribute to the war

Which one thereisonlyoneofme? :)

The one in the papers of the soldier underground standing in a beam of light, sorry cant seem to do link, someone upthread posted it

It was RTB on 16th May!

@Ijsbear this one. Amazing pic.

At the risk of cheapening Ukraine's fight for survival, I would seriously buy Ukraine 'merch'. A month ago, I was looking to buy a Ukraine hand flag for my office and it was mostly Chinese sellers which I actively avoided.

ouch, that one makes your heart squeeze. It looks like there' ssuch a story behind it

@blueshoes annoying, isn't it? I bought (years ago now - how it has dragged on and on) a quantity of EU flags for guerrilla distributing but I'm bloody sure the profits didn't go anywhere good - China via Amazon.

The one in the papers of the soldier underground standing in a beam of light

It's the first photo in this article. Incredibly powerful image.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10822509/Russias-offensive-Eastern-Ukraine-FAILED-says-propagandist.html

Re: the Azovstal soldier standing in the beam of light. I saw in a Twitter response that a Ukrainian, or perhaps even a Russian, had replied with a version of this which someone else had then translated. Unfortunately I can’t find that to link but thought it was apt.

Someone else on even noted that flecks of bomb debris are shown in the beam.

John 1:5
And the light shineth in darkness; and the darkness comprehended it not.

Oleksiy Sorokin AT mrsorokaa
Ukrainian officials have said that all Azovstal defenders, who have already surrendered, will be part of a prisoner exchange.

Russia hasn’t confirmed its commitment to a prisoner exchange, with some Russian officials now publicly backing down from the allegedly pre-agreed terms.

Kevin Rothrock AT KevinRothrock
The future looks grim for the Azov members among the 265 Azovstal factory POWs who surrendered in Mariupol yesterday. Three State Duma deputies, including Volodin & Slutsky, have said returning them to Ukraine is unfathomable. Slutsky wants them executed.
https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2022/05/17/deputat-slutskii-predlozhil-sniat-moratorii-na-smertnuiu-kazn-radi-ubiistva-boitsov-azova-news

Samuel Ramani AT SamRamani2
Russian MP Leonid Slutsky calls for the execution of Azov Battalion fighters in Mariupol:

“They do not deserve to live after the monstrous crimes against humanity that they have committed and that are committed continuously against our prisoners"

Oh shit, that would be a war crime right? You can't just go executing prisoners of war any more

Oh god, please let than not be true. It's incomprehensible. Blatant war crimes being planned in front of the entire watching world.

But it's what the defenders expected and why they hung on for so long. I read that they did the same when they took Crimea. Promised safety to the last defenders to surrender and then murdered them all.

I am sobbing over this. How can the world sit by and watch this?