Ukraine Invasion: Part 25

[MagicFox]

Hi all, another thread for supporting and sharing

Others on twitter are saying there is no secret deal. And they will be held by Russia as POWs merely to get medical treatment.

We shall see what Zelensky has to say. I'm not sure I am hopeful tbh.

TBF I wasn’t hopefully for the Snake Island soldiers other. Everything crossed!

Its just whether whatever deal has been struck is honoured...

I hope that since the wives of the Azovpolitans have been appealing to Turkey, China, the Pope, the planets and stars above that in this case the Russians will hold to their word.

Given that Putin seems to have toned down the language recently .... fingers and toes crossed. It is hard to have faith that the deal will be honoured but maybe, maybe it will.

Photo from inside Azovstal.

The only other thing I can think here is, 'off ramp'.

That's a biggie though.

If these soldiers get out alive and are able to hug their loved ones again it will restore at least a tiny bit of my faith in humanity.

Nathan Ruser AT nrg8000
Putin's War - May 16th Map Briefing.
Today there are unconfirmed but reliable reports that Ukrainian forces have crossed the Donets river near Kharkiv and taken up positions in 2 villages.
Russia captured a village near Lyman and Adiivka.

Trent Telenko AT TrentTelenko
If Ukrainian forces have put a bridgehead over the Donets river Ukrainian SF will have an opportunity to blow the Vovchansk rail line due to the chaos of the Russian retreat.^

The rails also will be under Ukrainian drone directed artillery fire soon.

Fwiw there were photos yesterday of Ukrainians establishing a pontoon bridge but the pics said location unknown...

@MagicFox wow!! I couldn't believe my eyes or ears. He really held his ground as well and I felt he undermined any notion of a special military operation.

@Hillsmakeyoustrong I know! I feel exactly the same way, I'm kind of gobsmacked

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/16/putin-involved-russia-ukraine-war-western-sources?CMP=share_btn_tw

Putin involved in war ‘at level of colonel or brigadier’, say western sources

Vladimir Putin has become so personally involved in the Ukraine war that he is making operational and tactical decisions “at the level of a colonel or brigadier”, according to western military sources.

The Russian president is helping determine the movement of forces in the Donbas, they added, where last week the invaders suffered a bloody defeat as they tried on multiple occasions to cross a strategic river in the east of Ukraine.

The sources added that Putin is still working closely with Gen Valery Gerasimov, the commander of the Russian armed forces, in contrast to claims made by Ukraine last week that the military chief had been sidelined.

“We think Putin and Gerasimov are involved in tactical decision making at a level we would normally expect to be taken by a colonel or a brigadier,” the military source said, referring to the ongoing battle in the east of Ukraine.

And

Colonels in the US army and brigadiers in the British army typically command a brigade, units made up of a handful of battalions – the latter of which is equivalent to the smallest operating unit in the Russian army.

Wtf! That takes micromanagement to a new level.

In comments under the link is this

This is not normal. Something is up. Not that Putin is directing field operations, but that it didn't come from Putin. Putin can be made the scapegoat now.

Is Putin looking for an off-ramp…..or is Russia?

I am slightly stunned @MagicFox
Also a bit intrigued by some of the language and leaning on the strategic part. A realist who will suggest Russia rebuilds in due course, perhaps. Nevertheless, still Wow!

At Francis_scarr has an interesting video if someone can link to the tweet (on my phone atm and can't get to my laptop to do it)

Putin involved in war ‘at level of colonel or brigadier’, say western sources

Except they really do need to be brought up to the front to give orders....😉

Some suggestion that the soliders who aren't wounded will leave Azovstal tomorrow. Possibly to a third country. Again this is all rumour at this stage.

Putin making nice noises could be about forcing Ukraine into talks when they dont want to yet. Right now, Russia want to keep what theyve got. Arguably this is as good as it gets for them...

We shall see.

MagicFox has already linked to it above!

Just watched one of Arestovych's videos. He seemed to hint that what Russia is reporting on Azovstal evacuation isn't the full story, but didn't go into details and said Zelensky will say more about it.

Re changed rhetoric - it's all staged. They can't go from "we're winning the war" to "it's all gone to shit" overnight. They need to gradually change the narrative and stir the tide. And yes, they are looking for an off ramp. But they need to do it carefully and sell a story as to why it's the best possible decision.

I've heard about the third country option too. Fingers crossed!

From Telegram Zelensky official channel:

A difficult day. But this day, like all others, is aimed at saving our country and our people. Thanks to the actions of the Ukrainian military - the Armed Forces of Ukraine, intelligence, as well as the negotiating team, the International Committee of the Red Cross and the UN, we hope that we will be able to save the lives of our guys. I want to emphasize that Ukraine needs Ukrainian heroes alive. This is our principle. I think that every adequate person will understand these words.

Непростий день. Але і цей день, як і всі інші, спрямований на те, щоб уберегти нашу країну й наших людей. Завдяки діям українських військових – Збройних Сил України, розвідки, а також переговорної групи, Міжнародного комітету Червоного Хреста й ООН маємо надію, що вдасться зберегти життя наших хлопців. Хочу підкреслити: українські герої потрібні Україні живими. Це наш принцип. Думаю, що ці слова зрозуміє кожна адекватна людина.

published 30 seconds ago.

Tim White AT TWMCLtd
Pres. Zelenskyy confirms Ukraine soldiers have been evacuated from #Azovstal.

53 wounded troops have been taken to hospital in #Novoazovsk.
A further 211 were taken to #Olenivka (#Yelenovka)

Both locations are in Russian controlled territory ahead of a proposed prisoner exchange.

Michael MacKay AT mhmck
53 severely wounded Ukrainian soldiers went from Mariupol to a medical facility in Russian-occupied Novoazovsk for a future prisoner exchange.

211 defenders were evacuated to Olenivka and then into Ukrainian-controlled territory through an exchange procedure.
–UA armed forces

I hope the ones who've had to surrender aren't tortured by the Russians

I'm sorry that we haven't helped Ukraine more and they've been left so isolated. Giving weapons just doesn't seem like enough. Perhaps behind the scene's we're also giving intelligence about Russian movements.

Ukrainians, I am sorry. You know it's politics and politics doesn't help save your family, but know that every free country in the world supports you, for what it's worth. If there was a vote for us to impose a no fly zone, I would, though ultimately it might be the wrong decision. Russia is punching itself out, but it's at such a cost of life that we cannot justify.

But also know this is a sea change. Sanctions will continue against Russia long after the fighting ends. It's locked in to start up to December 2022, no matter what Putin does. And we will flood aid, money and support into Ukraine for decades to come. You will end up stronger, at a terrible cost.

And the tide has turned. With Finland and Sweden joining NATO, Russia is becoming more isolated. They won't be able to do this to another country so easily. Ukraine is hopefully the last in Putin's empire building. I'm sorry it came to this. It should never have been allowed to happen, but you know it might have been worse if we became the aggressors.

I wish it hadn't happened this way, but it did. You have more allies now than you have ever had. Your immediate neighbours have connected to you much closer than they ever did before. You will get through this. Your flower has been bent down, but it is not broken.

Russia has had a shock to The System.

Putin knew that there was crony extraction from the state. He didn’t know the state and its forces were often an illusion.

It’s dawning on him. His ‘moderation’ is a sign of this. Meanwhile he is playing soldiers in case the incompetents he assumed were as effective as their uniforms were decorated and decorative were just not doing things properly.

Kyiv Independent Telegram

The Kyiv Independent, [16/05/2022 23:43]
⚡️⚡️⚡️264 Ukrainian soldiers evacuated from Azovstal.

53 heavily wounded Ukrainian soldiers were evacuated on May 16 from the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol to a hospital in Novoazovsk, and 211 soldiers – to Olenivka, according to Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar. Both cities are occupied by Russian forces.

Malyar said that Ukrainian authorities were working to save the rest of Ukrainian soldiers at Azovstal. Earlier reports said that some 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers were staying at the besieged Azovstal.