Ukraine Invasion: Part 25

[MagicFox]

Hi all, another thread for supporting and sharing

Yes, the word 'dismiss' is troubling. The war seems to be going well for Ukraine so why this. Pure conjecture on my part but I wonder whether Zelensky and Halushkin disagreed on the strategy re: Mariupol.

No idea what has gone on but as a general point (SWIDT) sometimes things go well despite who is in the chain of command, rather than because of who is in the chain of command..

He certainly wouldn’t be the first very senior officer fired in the middle of what looks like a successful campaign…

BBC New Live Feed:

"Belarus to send forces to Ukraine border, UK MOD says
Belarus has announced the deployment of special operations forces along the Ukrainian border, the UK Ministry of Defence says in its latest intelligence update.
It has also deployed air defence, artillery and missile units to training ranges in the west of the country, it says.
"The presence of Belarusian forces near the border will likely fix Ukrainian troops, so they cannot deploy in support of operations in the Donbas," but adds, "to date Belarusian forces have not been directly involved in the conflict"."

No, they shouldn’t be banned!

One of my local families falls into that category. The host has a close friend in Ukraine whose wife and children are staying with him. They go back years, he is godfather to one of the children. The dad tried to come too and has a medical exemption which should have allowed him to leave the country but was stopped at the border.

There should be interviews as well as home checks for either everyone or those such as single men hosting women who might be deemed high risk. It shouldn’t be hard to screen out genuine from dodgy people.

Now at -this- point I feel that a lot of very silent, very present Nato troops along the border might send a message. It has risks, but so does letting Ukraine fall.

Key Takeaways

Russian forces will likely prioritize winning the Battle of Severodonetsk over reaching the administrative borders of Donetsk Oblast.

Russian forces did not advance in the Slovyansk direction due to unsuccessful offensive operations in the Izyum area. Ukrainian aviation continues to operate north and east of Izyum.

Russian forces continued to launch artillery, air, and naval assaults on the Azovstal Steel Plant, but Mariupol defenders maintained their positions.

Russian forces are fortifying occupied settlements along the southern axis, indicative of Russian objectives for permanent control of the area.

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⚡️Operational update regarding the Russian invasion on the morning of May 16, 2022.

▪️The Russian enemy does not stop offensive operations in the eastern operational area. The enemy concentrated on the Donetsk direction. In the Slobozhansk direction, it is trying to contain the offensive of the defense forces north of Kharkov and prevent them from reaching the state border of Ukraine. The Russian enemy is preparing offensive operations with units concentrated in the Izyum area.

▪️Russian aircraft damaged civilian and military infrastructure in the eastern war zone and industrial facilities deep in Ukraine.

▪️In the Siversky direction, the Russian enemy has strengthened control over the Ukrainian-Russian border in the Bryansk and Kursk regions and is conducting demonstrative actions in order to keep part of the defense forces in the direction and prevent their transfer to the eastern region of the operation. The likelihood of shelling and rocket attacks from the territory of the Russian Federation continues to persist.

▪️In the Lyman, Bakhmut and Kurakhiv directions, the Russian enemy continues to lead the offensive, the fighting continues.

▪️In the Avdiivka direction, after the losses inflicted by the Ukrainian troops, the Russian enemy went to the previously occupied positions.

▪️In Mariupol, the Russian enemy continues massive artillery and air strikes. The main efforts of the invaders were focused on blocking and damaging our units in the area of the Azovstal plant.

▪️The defense forces attacked enemy positions in the area of Chernobayivka with losses in manpower and equipment. The number is being specified.

▪️During the day, the Armed Forces of Ukraine hit 11 air targets: two helicopters (Ka-52 and Mi-28), seven drones and two cruise missiles.

▪️Ukrainian aviation in some areas inflicted fire strikes on the enemy from the air.

▪️Over the past 24 hours, 17 enemy attacks were repulsed in the Donetsk and Luhansk directions, three tanks, one artillery mount, six armored vehicles and an enemy vehicle were destroyed. The losses of the personnel of the Russians are specified.

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🇩🇪Germany will refuse to import oil from Russia until the end of the year, even if the EU does not reach an agreement on this issue as part of a new package of sanctions – Bloomberg.

Work is underway to conclude contracts with alternative suppliers, the German authorities are confident that they will be able to resolve logistics issues within 6-7 months.

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In haste

Lukashenko just feels that he needs to be seen to be doing something.

Yes. 30% offering homes single men over 40. No I don't think they should be banned. However they do need vetting more because of the safeguarding risk. This isn't always happening.

Lukashenko is an odd guy. Well aren’t’ most of them? He thinks he is a Kim, but he’s a border guard made good. He has done well to keep his satrapy fairly autonomous in his relations with Putin.

If you don’t know about his feted son Kolya (Nicolai), the Prince Larry of Belarus, check him out. He’s 17 now and taller than his rotund border guard dad. Back when he was a smaller besuited Prince things were extra creepy.

Theres some speculation about Halushkin. I don't know how accurate it is but it seems to potentially be over the use of territorial defense troops. The suggestion is that they either may have been used offensively which they aren't supposed to be or there is a plan to use them out of their area which they are not currently allowed to do and he opposes the change.

I don't quite know what to make of it but Ive felt in the last week or so there been hints and a change of tone over the number of casualties Ukraine has been taking. Zelensky yesterday was warning about the war in the east being tough.

And although the Ukrainians seem to have forced withdrawal from Kharkiv the suggestion is these Russians will now be redeployed to Kherson or the East.

There is a battle for Severodonetsk which sounds tough and go for Ukraine and theyve had loses need Lyman.

Certainly reading between the lines, all is not quite as rosy as has been tried to make out.

Every day used to be Take Your Son To Work Day. It’s easy to find pictures of the duo voting, meeting Putin, sitting at the UN and so on. Lots of Belarusians sitting round a table finding out the Line? Kolya is more likely to be there than any women.

I assumed he was being groomed to be a Little Kim. Hopefully this won’t lead to a dynasty being established.

The significant enabling Lukashenko has done this year is to allow Russian troops to head down from the Gomel area through Chernobyl and to a Dover Plus queue north of Kyiv. Did he have a choice? For all his tightrope walking, I doubt it.

www.rferl.org/a/lukashenka-son-kolya-life-with-father/2313728.html

@TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 16/05/2022 07:42

“ScrollingLeaves
10% seems low after all this time.

Do you mean 30% of those offering homes are single men over 40? If so I don’t know why they aren’t banned from the list.”

No, they shouldn’t be banned!

One of my local families falls into that category. The host has a close friend in Ukraine whose wife and children are staying with him. They go back years, he is godfather to one of the children. The dad tried to come too and has a medical exemption which should have allowed him to leave the country but was stopped at the border.

There should be interviews as well as home checks for either everyone or those such as single men hosting women who might be deemed high risk. It shouldn’t be hard to screen out genuine from dodgy people.

In the case of your local family that is an already established personal relationship. I agree I wasn’t thinking of that and should have.

I would be very suspicious of unknown/unrelated single men offering a home to a young woman with children and think most nasty ones would know how to appear plausible. The pressure they could exert on a refugee could be enormous.

From what I have read Lukashenko has done everything he can to avoid fielding troops ad perhaps provide sly resistance to getting involved. May be wrong!

I gathered that things are bad for Ukraine in Severodonetsk. My prayers are going up .... what else can we do?

MMBaranova
re: the pictures of Lukashenko taking his son Kolya everywhere.

How interesting. It looks as though Lukashenko is an old father and Kolya is the light of his life. It must be a strange life for Kolya and he must need guarding.

I agree it is potentially a very dangerous situation and you’re right re plausibility.
Of course if there was proper matching rather than the Facebook Wild West they could be matched with couples or pairs of older friends… Any man who is specifically looking to house a young woman he doesn’t already know would be a potential red flag but if he is sincere he’s not going to object to taking someone in who isn’t a potential partner…

@Ijsbear · 16/05/2022 08:29 and @RedToothBrush

Thank you for the news this morning.
Very troubling on several fronts.

Definitely needs increased vetting for single men offering homes for refugees, very worrying to think of young women or women with children being put in very vulnerable situations like that.

twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1525876571948691456?s=20&t=sJsnzCLmor7irUwJDe9Nxw

Honestly Russia, get some new material.

The flip to that is the situation in the rest of Europe where there is absolutely no checking going on.

This is why I'm kind of torn over visas. I think they have added to stress and risk (one family locally who just arrived ended up with one seeking hospital treatment which was put down to stress over visas as they had a complete nightmare with their application). However there is a real argument for checks too. The UK has the ability to do this, but they aren't always doing this despite this which is the really disappointing thing.

Facebook Wild West is pretty dire. Locally anyone who put their name up got a place around here. Now I'm seeing people putting up requests for a host but no replies. So I think all the motivated people locally have got a match. I do know of others who are signed up to the scheme but are 'waiting for the government to match them' still (never going to happen).

Its awful because no one knows who they are getting really, and its a complete lottery for both parties.

I keep hearing of arrangements having broken down - it seems some of those who went to the EU are now applying to the UK for exactly this reason. I think in part because English is the most common second language.

It does mean that the UK is getting a very different set of people coming here than other parts of Europe.

Playing catch up from the weekend here.

This from yesterday :

Phillips P OBrien AT PhillipsPObrien
First, Ukrainian military intelligence believes Russia is doing a surreptitious mobilization, which is resulting in troops being sent into Ukraine quietly, but also without the right training and motivation.

This idea of the Russians trying to make up losses by sending in hastily composed formations received some support in the Pentagon briefing on Friday where it was claimed in the last week, the Russians actually increased the number of BTGs in Ukr to 105.

With follow up thread today:
Phillips P OBrien AT PhillipsPObrien
Surreptitious mobilization does seem to be taking place, though what it means for Putin's view of his own people is probably more important than what it means militarily.

It was only a week ago that we were wondering whether Putin was going to try and turn the Russian people's supposed support for this war into actual military power by declaring war or mobilizing. As you know, he didnt.

Indeed, he gave a very bland speech which called for no sacrifice by the Russian people. If anything it was an attempt to convince them to support him and not to ask any sacrifices.

Since then, Russian media has gone to great lengths to assure people there will be no great mobilization, including this well covered rant against those who were saying it.

[reference to Russian Tv pundits saying its now turbo special operation but no mobilisation]

Yet. the Russians do seem to be generating more forces, as the Ukrainians have commented, and there are stories circulating of reservists in their 30s and 40s being called up.

The ICRC is also claiming that Putin is trying to recruit children into his armed forces and their are stories of attempts to get central asian forces with economic incentives.

https://eutoday.net/news/politics/2022/new-entry

Plus, of course, the forced conscriptions of soldiers in Donetsk, Luhansk, Crimea and other parts of occupied Ukraine. Now all of this shows how serious the soldier shortage facing Russia is. Problem, such motley forces wont be able to materially affect the outcome of the war.

I dont envy the out of shape reservists or children who have to go anywhere near the battlefield in Ukraine. They will need significant (re)training if they are going to have a chance to survive--which looks unlikely.

If militarily this wont make a massive difference, what it does indicate is that for all the flag waving, Putin really doesnt trust his people to support the war if sacrifices are made. If anything, it betrays a real fear of the Russian people.

In other words, this low-key almost secret mobilization is a sign of weakness and maybe a fatal one. If he cant trust his people early in a war, it will only get worse later as the growing toll and prospect of defeat begins to undermine Russian support.

Don't think this has been linked to already. This (and the previous two threads by the same person, actually) are genuinely fascinating about the headache the entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO creates for Russia. twitter.com/tomiahonen/status/1525959053490458624?cxt=HHwWgMC40ZPrpa0qAAAA

They really are coming across as a one-shot johnny aren't they? I wonder if he realises that his overemphasis is actually counterproductive.

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www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato

07:56
Russian aviation fires on industrial facilities in depths of Ukraine

The army of the Russian Federation used aircraft to fire on the Eastern Operational Zone and the industrial facilities in the depths of Ukraine

www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato
Ukrainian troops blow up Russian-captured railway bridges in Luhansk region

In Luhansk region, Ukrainian defenders blow up railway bridges between Rubizhne and Sievierodonetsk captured by Russian invaders.

06:16
Territorial Defense forces reach border with Russia in Kharkiv region

In Kharkiv region, Ukrainian defenders of one of the Territorial Defense battalions pushed back the Russian military and reached a section of Ukraine–Russia state border.

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It seems that Russian air superiority is still a problem though despite the anti-aircraft stuff in Ukrainian hands now.

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Ukraine was preparing Monday for a new Russian push in the eastern Donbas region, as Kyiv said its army's counterattack around Kharkiv had gained momentum.

www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/16/ukraine-as-its-happening-a76553

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Euromaidan PR
@EuromaidanPR
·
1h
The sanitary losses of the russian invaders as of the morning of May 16, 2022 exceeded 53.5 thousand people. Irreversible sanitary losses (dead) exceeded 27.5 thousand people.

Thus, the total losses of the russian occupation troops exceeded 81 thousand people.

( I -think- they mean the combat losses. slightly overstressed visions of 53,5 broken toilets. No source for this figure though. Nor does anyone seem to give estimates for how many Russian or pro-Russian troops are in Ukraine atm).

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empr.media/opinion/interviews/azov-battalion-founder-andriy-biletsky-explained-why-mariupol-is-so-important-for-russia/

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OSINTtechnical
@Osinttechnical
·
12h
NYT- “…estimates based on publicly available evidence now suggesting that well over 400 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded while trying to cross the Donets River”

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The Kyiv Independent, [16/05/2022 11:08]
⚡️Chernihiv starts restoration of critical infrastructure.

Chernihiv Oblast Governor Viacheslav Chaus said on May 16 that the authorities were starting to restore power grids, water supply facilities, hospitals, and kindergartens damaged by the Russians

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Rumours on various Twitter accounts that covert mobilization and conscription is taking place. One was for a 44 yo man in Moscow. (unconfirmed).

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Moscow has begun the threatened process of taking over Western businesses

(The Moscow Times)

I don't know how they are doing it elsewhere in Europe but here they have to register at a reception centre so they can get their refugee money and healthcare and whatnot even if they are in private accommodation so there's at least some checking, and the main idea is that they should all be offered accommodation in reception centres (not happening yet as so many were shut a few years ago so not enough beds until new ones are opened) and private accommodation is supposed to be for relatives or friends rather than strangers.

Does anyone know what the Ukrainian losses are like? I know they are not going to be well-publicized, but it sounds like a tough slog and they are tiring.

It's fairly pot luck here in the NL too. They have to be registered ofc and there are some organisations who vet and match both sides, though they make the UK Visa system look speedy. But there's a lot of the Facebook free for all going on too.

There is nothing I consider reputable since mid April. Zelensky said 3000 dead then and that was thought on the low side, but they have generally been honest about Russian loses. Other sources suggested it was more like 10000. (This is military only not civilians).

There are numbers coming from Russian sources which say sizeably more than Russian KIA. I personally don't buy these for a number of reasons. The one being because its Russia saying this.

Ivana Stradner AT ivanastradner
We, Eastern and Central Europeans, can’t trust Germany and France anymore. After the war in Ukraine, we should rethink our security and make security pacts with US and UK.

If Macron and Scholz are appeasing Putin, imagine how they will behave with Xi Jinping and a serious security concern such as China. Also.. Numbers in terms of military assistance to Ukraine are telling.

As I see many questions about this “pact”, I referred to a similar deal like AUKUS. Meanwhile, NATO should remain the key security alliance for Europe, of course.

In terms of political fall out, keep eyes on this type of sentiment.