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Ukraine Invasion: Part 25

1002 replies

MagicFox · 12/05/2022 08:18

Hi all, another thread for supporting and sharing

OP posts:
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Ijsbear · 16/05/2022 11:49

If the Russians are saying the Ukrainians have lost sizeably more than the Russians, I wonder where they think this inexhaustible supply of Ukr manpower is coming from?

The Ukrainians can afford less manpower losses though :(

RedToothBrush · 16/05/2022 12:05

Ijsbear · 16/05/2022 11:49

If the Russians are saying the Ukrainians have lost sizeably more than the Russians, I wonder where they think this inexhaustible supply of Ukr manpower is coming from?

The Ukrainians can afford less manpower losses though :(

You believe the Russians?

I have no doubt the Ukrainians have lost a lot of soliders. But more than the Russians? No, not buying it. The Ukrainians haven't been exposed to a turkey shoot in the same way as the Russians.

Indeed it seems over the weekend that the Russians have abandoned an encirclement attempt out of Izyum and are now attempting a smaller one centred out of Severodonetsk due to Ukrainian counter attacks and running out of steam.

The Ukrainians can afford less manpower in theory. In practice the same is true for Russia, because it risks political instability whereas Ukraine doesn't have to worry about that in the same way for obvious reasons when its very existence is at stake.

This will also tip more in favour of Ukraine as they get more weapons and the Russians run out and don't train their recruits properly (Ukraine is doing better at this).

RedToothBrush · 16/05/2022 12:10

I think this is a good illustration of changing Russian objectives.

This doesn't mean Ukraine isn't struggling to maintain this. It shows that its containing Russia at least.

Whether you will see a Russian collaspe is a different question though. They are likely to dig in next, as Ukraine go on the offensive. Thats the third stage of this war I being touted now and this is where Ukraine may struggle more especially if they have had significant losses.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 25
RedToothBrush · 16/05/2022 12:27

marqs AT MarQs__
Russian troops began to dig trenches and build concrete fences in the #Kherson region, near #Melitopol and in the west of the #Zaporizhzhia Oblast to establish permanent control over the occupied territories - American Institute for the Study of War

RedToothBrush · 16/05/2022 12:43

Iuliia Mendel AT IuliiaMendel
After temporarily shutting down more than 800 restaurants following the invasion of Ukraine, McDonald's has decided to leave Russia altogether - CNN

TargusEasting · 16/05/2022 13:06

This is long, but I think folks would prefer me to post key sections of this rather than the link, which may not translate well on some devices. It is some interesting reading into morale, mindset and values and it resonates honestly with me. He talks about the Russian method that defeat means to target places were civilians go, to deprive them of society, to kill women especially because they are source of future soldiers.

Anton Kolumbet, Censor.net

A selection of excerpts (hoping this posts OK after upgrade):

Since the beginning of Russia's full-scale war against Ukraine, the Kyiv Municipal Guard has been performing combat missions as part of the 72nd Separate Mechanized Brigade named after the Black Cossacks. Anton Kolumbet , Deputy Head of the Municipal Guard:

"We are looking for infantry. Iron, clear, smooth infantry that will bite every inch. Can not? Learn, do not be afraid… Briefly about us: We can only be on a voluntary basis. Priority is given to candidates from OP-1, participants in hostilities in the ATO / OOS. We have zero tolerance for alcohol and other defects. We do not have the concept of "non-compliance with the combat order". or problem people. Required excellent knowledge of military affairs and appropriate level of physical training "

In March, you liberated Kyiv region from the occupiers, in particular Irpin, Romanivka, Lyutizh and Moshchun. What impressed you the most then?

- First of all, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that I was part of a considerable driving force, which consists of a huge number of people, many of whom are more heroic than I am (smiles. - OM). I don't feel like I've done anything extraordinary. And they did.

As for personal impressions as part of this process, I can say that overwhelming efforts were made here by those who defended Kyiv. Because the battle for the capital was very fierce. It is clear that her capture was the main goal of the enemy. It was visible and clear. But our drive for self-organization worked, which became key. You know, "cotton swabs" always come across the same thing - they don't believe that people can organize themselves. They themselves are uninitiated and inert, so they do not understand how people are able to gather and fight. The Russians have critically underestimated our quality - such "Maidan Cossacks", when 15-20 friends gather, pick up carbines, join the confrontation and become soldiers, and veterans' organizations join the active combat brigades in whole platoons and companies. All these people independently establish horizontal ties with each other and fight as they can - more or less successfully, but "bite" the enemy, destroy him and cause damage.

You are ahead of my question. I would like to recall your statement that the Russians planned to go to war with the army, but it turned out that the entire Ukrainian people were against them. Obviously, their leadership saw this. Did they have a chance to "give back" when they felt such resistance?

- From the military point of view, of course, there was. But not from the media. The Russians objectively "put at stake" everything. The only chance for them to win this war was to do everything quickly. Their plan here was based on many years of support from anti-Ukrainian forces. Because it is impossible to occupy the territory without the support of the population (at least part of it), and to capture cities without occupation administrations. Someone has to manage these areas, improve living conditions for the population, monitor public safety, catch guerrillas and put out fires. We somehow do not notice all these state structures in everyday life (smiles. - OM). But they are! Someone organizes the fact that bread appears in our store, if the house is on fire - a red car comes and extinguishes it, and when someone robs a woman on the street - the police go and detain him. All this is the state. Usually, these hundreds of thousands of people who organize the life of the country properly (with varying degrees of success, but that's another matter) are invisible. So the Russians expected that they would just go to a village, and anti-Ukrainian forces would be waiting for them here…

And they will even meet with flowers, as their propaganda claimed?

- So. This is such a rather strange story, when the country has built a system of its own false propaganda so well that as a result it believed in it itself (laughs. - OM). It's like an addict under the influence of drugs imagined an imaginary world, believed in it and in reality began to do actions directed by the imagination. That is, he believed that he could fly, and, roughly speaking, "went out the window." So are the Russians. But it did not happen as expected. In fact, the Kyiv region fiercely resisted. I am personally convinced that the reason for the defeat of the Russians in the battle for Kyiv was not only the military component, but also the civilian one. If the Russian troops had not retreated and stayed for another week, they would all have been destroyed. It would be just a military catastrophe. So they saved at least their remains and all.

By the way, at the end of March you just wrote that in the Kyiv region there is a full-fledged Wild Field : "This is the Cossacks. This is the same wind from the Cold Yar, where there is no coordination and supply center. even they do not know where they are going. " Is it good or bad?

- This is a very difficult question… Of course, any professional soldier will say that it is bad. Because you can't fight like that. This, as they say, is not in the textbook (smiles. - OM). But if the army was opposed by the army, the consequences for Ukraine would be worse than we have. After all, the Russian military fought not only with the Armed Forces, but also with the Ukrainian people. However, this is almost impossible! So, apparently, in this configuration, when there was no other way out, it's good. After all, armies can always be defeated. You just need more resources, equipment, aircraft and soldiers. It's as if a boxer who weighs 100 kilograms came out against someone who weighs twice as much. Of course, his chances of winning are much higher. But if we reinforce the second boxer with 15 people who run out into the ring, kick the first one and run away (smiles. - OM), the result is obvious. Certainly, a pack of wolves will always bite a lion, no matter how strong he is. So, I repeat, from this point of view, the Wild Field you mentioned is good. And the truth is always somewhere in the middle. Now volunteer formations and units are joining the Armed Forces, so here is this unique superposition, which unites the Cossacks and regular troops.

Now a lot is said that the enemy lacks motivation ...

- Indeed, many people talk about the low motivation of the enemy. But I would not be so optimistic about this. Yes, the enemy has no motivation for any high ideals. But this does not mean that he does not have it at all. The Russian soldier has motivation, but it is quite distorted. Here it is necessary to understand that it works not just some element of propaganda, that they are there - some stupid beasts, although this is a fact. In fact, most of them are uneducated, of low social status and level of origin from forgotten Russian villages. Their lives have been and will be horrible. They are fully aware of this. For many of them, war is the best adventure of their lives and a sign that it makes sense. They lived all the time in that horrible Russian reality. Especially since most of them are younger, contractors. Then for them to go kill someone, to destroy something, to burn it is cool and fun. Such an aggressive emotion. Not in the ideological sense, because they don't care about Putin's geopolitical interests. But they like to come and kill people, shoot at them. They are thrilled by this. When their friends start dying en masse, their motivation drops. But still present. Although so stupid.

At the same time, we still destroyed the myth of the second strongest army in the world. But they are still trying to take Ukraine in numbers, because their leadership is guided by the principle voiced by USSR Marshal Georgy Zhukov: "Women give birth to new ones." This is very clear not only from the intercepted conversations of the occupiers with their mothers and wives , but also in the public statements of the Russians. How to stop this "flow of personnel"? Or one option - to kill?

- That's right, there is no other way out. The confrontation between Russia and Ukraine in one form or another has lasted for 400 years. I see no reason why it should stop abruptly. Moreover, they really have everything "at stake". Indeed, they will never forgive their worst defeat. And it is in the media propaganda plane. The whole world saw that disorganized, torn by political contradictions and economic problems, Ukraine was simply "giving away" this vaunted second army of the world, which had been nurtured, nurtured for so long, and on which such hopes were placed. This is the most significant defeat! They don't care how many Russian soldiers die, because there are still many of them (smiles. - OM). The human resources of the enemy, in principle, are close to limitless. But this defeat with shameful retreats, which was covered almost live by the international media, they will never forgive. This will end only in a radical change in the political leadership of the Russian Federation. But, again, I will never believe in any peaceful intentions of the Russians. Because I put the responsibility for what is happening on the whole Russian people. I do not like this talk that only Putin is an unconditional evil. Yes, he is. However, he would not be able to do what he does now if he did not have such public support. I saw with what admiration, adoration and joy the average Russian enjoys the suffering of the average Ukrainian. That is why this war has always lasted and will continue in one form or another.

Today there are often rumors that the enemy has not given up the idea of taking Kyiv. They say that a second attack on the capital is still possible. What do you think?

- We are also discussing this topic. Before we were taken out of the Kyiv region for additional staffing, we talked about it all the time. Especially since everyone is from Kyiv with families. Personally, I stopped making any predictions in my head at all, because I understand that we are not dealing with a ratio, but with emotions, a half-mad dictator and his obedient commanders who don't care. If he decides to rush to the capital again, he can do it. Such a danger exists every day. There will be no military component in this operation. He just wanted to, and the Russian army went "again for the second series" to die in Kyiv region. Okay. Therefore, it makes no sense to anticipate something and try to understand the enemy. He is guided not by logic, but by his own media moments - timing to a date or something else. He sincerely hates us. It is a fact about which veterans of anti-terrorist operation and environmental protection spoke all eight years. But no one listened to them. In fact, it doesn't take long for a Russian soldier to explain why he has to go to Ukraine to kill Ukrainians. He is not interested in any geopolitics. The average Russian sincerely hates Ukraine as a state and Ukrainians as a person. It's always nice to hurt him, to bleed him. It's an emotion. It is quite possible that they are now "licking their wounds" and tearing again. But, again, they will not do this in order to achieve some military success. At the heart of these actions will be an elementary desire to kill more Ukrainians. This must be realized. Therefore, anything can happen.

For the Day of Remembrance and Reconciliation, President Volodymyr Zelensky recorded a very emotional address in Borodyanka. Speaking about our future, he said: "No evil will escape responsibility, it will not be able to hide in a bunker. It will not leave a stone unturned. So we will overcome everything and we know it for sure, because our military and all our people are descendants of those who overcame Nazism. And there will be peace again. Finally. Again we will overcome the winter, which began and lasts on May 8, but will surely end and it will melt the Ukrainian sun. And we will meet our dawn all over the country. " What can help our Ukrainian sun to rise faster?

- Metaphor, of course, poetic. This "Ukrainian sun", apparently, now consists of three components. The first is international support. It should not stop, but only increase. The supply of weapons should not be 20-30 jeeps, because it is not about anything, but significant.

The second is cohesion and the desire to defend oneself. Mobilization is underway. Human resources may gradually begin to deplete. We need young, healthy and motivated volunteers, not older men who have been drafted into the army.

^The third is Ukrainian politics. I see that as soon as the guns fell silent near Kyiv, everyone started to engage in political strife again. But today, everyone must show cohesion. Джерело: censor.net/ua/r3341326^

TargusEasting · 16/05/2022 13:16

A couple of further items I have seen overnight which to me are background, but relevant:

  • Russian car makers are permitted to revert to Soviet standards - ie basic models with no ABS or ESP and no airbags and the ilk.
  • The Russian version of Google Play is being subjected to massive interruption by DDOS attacks - small as it is with only 1,000 apps.
  • Soldiers fighting with the Wagner Group have been killed in fairly large numbers. A report I saw last night suggested 50 had died in one strike. The bodies of those men had Syrian, Libyan, US and Malian currency and were likely of Libyan nationality.
TargusEasting · 16/05/2022 13:26

Wish we could edit our posts, because in relation to the second point I wanted to add it always tickles me that the economy of California is twice the size of Russia's. In fact it is the 5th or 6th largest in the world (depending on the day).

It's all down to people, values and leadership.

Ijsbear · 16/05/2022 13:55

RedToothBrush · 16/05/2022 12:05

You believe the Russians?

I have no doubt the Ukrainians have lost a lot of soliders. But more than the Russians? No, not buying it. The Ukrainians haven't been exposed to a turkey shoot in the same way as the Russians.

Indeed it seems over the weekend that the Russians have abandoned an encirclement attempt out of Izyum and are now attempting a smaller one centred out of Severodonetsk due to Ukrainian counter attacks and running out of steam.

The Ukrainians can afford less manpower in theory. In practice the same is true for Russia, because it risks political instability whereas Ukraine doesn't have to worry about that in the same way for obvious reasons when its very existence is at stake.

This will also tip more in favour of Ukraine as they get more weapons and the Russians run out and don't train their recruits properly (Ukraine is doing better at this).

Ofc I don't believe a word they say :P If they say something, 99.9% you can assume the exact opposite!

I wonder where they think the inexhaustible supply comes from! Given that even they must know that, well, Ukraine is kinda smaller than Russia. Hmm

Ijsbear · 16/05/2022 14:36

@TargusEasting

Soldiers fighting with the Wagner Group have been killed in fairly large numbers. A report I saw last night suggested 50 had died in one strike. The bodies of those men had Syrian, Libyan, US and Malian currency and were likely of Libyan nationality.

I am frankly glad to hear this.

It's a poor thing to be glad that people are killed. But from the stories I've read they are the worst of the worst. Humans who have lost touch with any sort of civilized behaviour and relish cruelty and others' pain.

Regarding the lowering of standards in Russia - it really is a return to the standards of 40 years ago isn't it. It also implies that the Russian govt think they are going to be unable to achieve better standards for a long time to come. That implies they are willing to be isolated because they are not going to engage with the Western community.

If the world is lucky then there will be a regime change that includes both Putin and the hawks. Otherwise the increasing deterioration in the relations between Russia and the West is going to last a long time and Russia's standards of living, freedom of access to information and at a guess education standards are going to fall significantly.

MagicFox · 16/05/2022 14:50

If the world is lucky then there will be a regime change that includes both Putin and the hawks. Otherwise the increasing deterioration in the relations between Russia and the West is going to last a long time and Russia's standards of living, freedom of access to information and at a guess education standards are going to fall significantly.

**

Regime change is the best hope for Russia and the best hope for the world. But it's seeming impossibility is eminently depressing

OP posts:
Ijsbear · 16/05/2022 14:53

🇸🇪Sweden has decided to join NATO. The application for membership will be submitted together with Finland.

From UkraineNOW

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 16/05/2022 14:56

‘Russia's standards of living, freedom of access to information and at a guess education standards are going to fall significantly‘

Indeed - and do they not SEE how vulnerable to China this will make them?

Ijsbear · 16/05/2022 15:05

Interesting clip from the Independent from mid-February. The straws indicating Putin is ill are gathering into a haystack

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/vladimir-putin-health-concerns-shaking-uncontrollably-b2066674.html

Ijsbear · 16/05/2022 15:06

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 16/05/2022 14:56

‘Russia's standards of living, freedom of access to information and at a guess education standards are going to fall significantly‘

Indeed - and do they not SEE how vulnerable to China this will make them?

They don't seem to be able to see very much clearly at all.

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 16/05/2022 15:16

Ijsbear
Russia's standards of living, freedom of access to information and at a guess education standards are going to fall significantly.

How can they, when so many in Russia are already living in what are effectively mud huts, without electricity, sanitation or local schools, and they find the idea that Ukrainians live in brick houses which have running water in them quite fantastical?

Igotjelly · 16/05/2022 15:18

BBC news - Belarus president urges Russian-led military alliance to unite against West

Going to be a small party....

Ijsbear · 16/05/2022 15:19

@AskingQuestionsAllTheTime

In the Eastern villages yes but there are well developed cities in Russia too!

Ijsbear · 16/05/2022 15:22

I suspect that actually the rich/poor divide will just get wider and the middle class will be to some extent squeezed smaller.

(admittedly that's happening in the West too).

katem98 · 16/05/2022 15:25

Sorry if this is a silly question but what will China make of Sweden and Finland joining NATO? I know they have no say over the matter but just wondering what their stance will be on the matter?

BelleHathor · 16/05/2022 15:29

Previous poster asked about Avostal, rumours on both Ukrainian and Russian telegram that an agreement has been reached to evacuate the wounded and the first 10 have surrendered into Russian/DPR custody.
twitter.com/RWApodcast/status/1526184736087060481?s=20&t=yBl1LUNyUb7x1UQzGEaCCA

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 16/05/2022 15:43

I was being slightly facetious.... But I think it is illegal in this country for any dwelling to be rented out which does not have access to mains sewerage or a working septic tank. There's a thing called the "Homes (Fitness for Human Habitation) Act 2018" to make sure landlords and tenants understand what is and is not allowed in law, and sanitation is mentioned as a requirement. And the Building regulations of 1990 are clear about what has to be included in any new build, and "sanitary facilities" definitely are. We're not perfect by any means, but we manage to do better than nothing at all, even if the water boards have taken to pumping raw sewage into rivers; and I am fairly sure the same is true in the EU.

The Eastern villages are shocking, in Russia, but I also wouldn't bet that everyone in Moscow has the facilities everyone in London (in a legal dwelling as opposed to a hut in someone's garden that is not lawful) has; back in the sixties when Moscow was being touted as being a thoroughly civilised city under the USSR there was a group of tourists who were present when an advertising hoarding blew over so that they could see the rather primitive dwellings behind it. They were told by their guide that photography was forbidden, and later discovered that all the film in their cameras was fogged anyway. (My incredibly pro-communist brother-in-law was one of them, and was shocked by what he saw that day in the Proletariat Utopia.)

TheCountessofFitzdotterel · 16/05/2022 15:56

AskingQuestionsAllTheTime · 16/05/2022 15:43

I was being slightly facetious.... But I think it is illegal in this country for any dwelling to be rented out which does not have access to mains sewerage or a working septic tank. There's a thing called the "Homes (Fitness for Human Habitation) Act 2018" to make sure landlords and tenants understand what is and is not allowed in law, and sanitation is mentioned as a requirement. And the Building regulations of 1990 are clear about what has to be included in any new build, and "sanitary facilities" definitely are. We're not perfect by any means, but we manage to do better than nothing at all, even if the water boards have taken to pumping raw sewage into rivers; and I am fairly sure the same is true in the EU.

The Eastern villages are shocking, in Russia, but I also wouldn't bet that everyone in Moscow has the facilities everyone in London (in a legal dwelling as opposed to a hut in someone's garden that is not lawful) has; back in the sixties when Moscow was being touted as being a thoroughly civilised city under the USSR there was a group of tourists who were present when an advertising hoarding blew over so that they could see the rather primitive dwellings behind it. They were told by their guide that photography was forbidden, and later discovered that all the film in their cameras was fogged anyway. (My incredibly pro-communist brother-in-law was one of them, and was shocked by what he saw that day in the Proletariat Utopia.)

That’s a fascinating story and matches what it says in the very interesting article about Russian sewerage posted in an earlier thread. One of the things that surprised me most in that article was that it’s not just very rural homes that lack proper sanitation but often in cities too.

OwlsDance · 16/05/2022 15:56

Technological regression is something that's been discussed back in March, particularly by Russian economists who have lived in Soviet era and still remember all the crap "technology". I was very young when USSR collapsed but I still remember the washing machine that did only the washing (no rinsing/spin cycle), and Russian cars with zero amortisation and rattling windows. I'm talking about late 80s/early 90s here.

I've listened to a BBC Russian podcast about the covert mobilisation that is happening in Ukraine bordering regions. It was quite interesting, especially when one of the journalists said that there were 2 of them working on the same topic, independently and unbeknown to each other, and when they discovered about each others work, their notes were almost identical.

They are mainly calling up reservists with some military experience or training. Obviously because a war hasn't been declared, they can just ignore any summons, but if they do engage, then they're subjected to all kind of emotional blackmail.

Is anyone watching Das Boot series on Sky? There was an episode how Nazi Germany recruited young delinquents, presenting army as the best option they had. I wondered how popular that is in Rusdia now...

RedToothBrush · 16/05/2022 16:01

Elisa AT elissetennis
Personally, I think they need to start an ‘alternative European Union’: UK, Ukraine, Poland, Finland, Sweden, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Norway and Denmark. Would be much tougher than the European Union now… and much more trustworthy countries all working together

David Patrikarakos AT dpatrikarakos
A lot of people in Ukraine have told me variations of this idea.

Now I personally this, this hasn't got legs for a number of geographical reasons. However I think it highlights something fairly significant with France and Germany (and actually Italy, Spain and a number of others) politically that the war has exposed.

Ukraine of course are going to go for this, given the realism of how long it will take to join the EU for them

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