Ukraine Invasion: Part 25

[MagicFox]

Hi all, another thread for supporting and sharing

Why is everything in bold now? 🤔

Barrow there was an excellent link upthread to someone who explained how the Russian govt mindset works. Can't find it now - bit busy - but it was absolytey brilliant and explains why they threaten

aha twitter.com/MunSecConf/status/1512451999622643714

I think this might be the post you mean? I keep coming back to it! @Ijsbear @BarrowInFurnessRailwayStation

Oops sorry you found it!

@Ijsbear · 14/05/2022 15:25

Barrow there was an excellent link upthread to someone who explained how the Russian govt mindset works. Can't find it now - bit busy - but it was absolytey brilliant and explains why they threaten

This?

Munich Security Conference on Twitter: "Even before #Russia launched its attack on #Ukraine, Estonian Prime Minister @kajakallas warned Western leaders not to make any concessions to the Kremlin, calling to mind a 3-point negotiation tactic the Soviet Union used to apply. #MSC2022 t.co/kzP93fnv5S" / Twitter

mobile.twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1524880300949528583
mobile.twitter.com/munsecconf/status/1512451999622643714?s=21&t=6-gjd-uaF34Du11LN8qmVw

Sorry, I see you found it. I had sent it to someone as it is so interesting.

See PerkingFaintly's helpful transcript above.

This is exactly how a mugger operates.

Gimme your watch. [No right to watch but demands it anyway]
No
I will stab you [Holds knife to throat - threat]
How about my phone instead
Ok then

If this was Russia, they will stab anyway to weaken the victim to soften for an even bigger demand later

Is it just this thread as I haven’t noticed it on other threads?

The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
·
4h
⚡️ Ukraine's intelligence: Russia exhausted its combat-ready battalions.

Russia is going through a covert mobilization, Defense Ministry’s Intelligence Directorate representative Vadym Skibitsky said on May 14.

That matches with reports of covert recruitment in Belgorod and Rostov oblasts.

Targus is back at it again 😂

Oh thank you for the link ☺️

It seems like the new President wants to take Hungary in a different direction. Not sure how much power rests with her and how much with Orban, who clearly wants to snuggle up to Papa Putin.

The Kyiv Independent, [14/05/2022 18:11]
⚡️ Hungary president: 'We will forever say no to all efforts to restore the Soviet Union.'

Katalina Novak, Hungary’s new president, condemned Russia’s aggression against Ukraine on May 14. She also said she supports Ukraine’s accession to the EU and that Hungary would “be happy to mediate” between Ukraine and Russia.

Novak also demanded an investigation and punishment for war crimes.

“We are not neutral, we are on the side of innocent victims and the truth,” she said.

Breaking news!

Euromaidan Press
@EuromaidanPress
·
25m
A big convoy of cars with Mariupol residents (500-1,000 cars) was finally allowed to go to Zaporizhia.🇷🇺occupiers blocked them for 3 days

Ppl who left Mariupol said that to get to🇺🇦-controlled territory they came through dozen🇷🇺checkpoints,Mayor adviser t.me/andriyshTime/885

Watched one of the Arestovych videos, it does seem that Ukraine are working up to switch to offensive by July, hence the other guy (Budanov?) saying the fighting culminating in August.

This is also when the snowball of sanctions will have grown to a significant weight.

@Ijsbear · 14/05/2022 17:26
It seems like the new President wants to take Hungary in a different direction. Not sure how much power rests with her and how much with Orban, who clearly wants to snuggle up to Papa Putin.

The Kyiv Independent, [14/05/2022 18:11]
⚡️ Hungary president: 'We will forever say no to all efforts to restore the Soviet Union.'

Katalina Novak, Hungary’s new president, condemned Russia’s aggression against Ukraine on May 14. She also said she supports Ukraine’s accession to the EU and that Hungary would “be happy to mediate” between Ukraine and Russia.

Novak also demanded an investigation and punishment for war crimes.

“We are not neutral, we are on the side of innocent victims and the truth,” she said.

That last statement is good.
Another young woman.

Targus, thank you for this link.

Former US Army general, Wesley Clark: "When we talk about a long war, it means unnecessary bloodshed in Ukraine and further escalation. I think our answer should be simple: it is wrong, dishonest, unwise and bad strategy to continue this war, we do not need a long war. First, because it will cause Ukraine. But, in addition, China can be involved, and Russia can mobilize additional troops, and this is not a strategy we can put up with,"

In my non-military mindset, I don't understand why it has to be a long war. The longer we string this out for Ukraine, the longer they have to fight, lose more men and more civilian deportations and atrocities will occur in the meantime by Russian troops. It also enables Russia to colonise Kherson and other occupied territory with Russian settlors which will be doubly, triply difficult for Ukraine to remove without innocent bloodshed.

A short sharp war with a well-armed Ukraine whilst they still have their men in numbers. Ukraine would not need NATO boots on the ground to do this, just NATO hardware, air and firepower.

The link makes so much sense to me.

Redtoothbrush, your earlier posts on river crossings was fascinating. I read them with much interest.

"But, in addition, China can be involved, and Russia can mobilize additional troops, and this is not a strategy we can put up with,"

This is clearly the absolute worst case scenario and evokes the spectre of WWIII. China's position here is the central enigma isn't it? It hates the US, it's as powerful as the US. Where do its best interests lie? Is it really in backing Russia? I hope not, I don't know

More of less:

China's political system is not compatible with the Western / democratic system but teh West is still China's biggest trading partner at the moment and dependent on some Western-made things. Iirc (if) Taiwan and the NL make some chips that China just cannot do at this moment for example. They may ideologically incline towards Russia but are careful of falling out with the West - yet.

China has been moving towards becoming more self-sufficient and will continue to do so. They have also been working hard to extend their influence in Africa, giving loans eg for building infrastructure with high rates of interest and a fascinating clause that if the debtor defaults, the Chinese company can choose freely what and how big the penalty can be - and Beijing can lean on any and all companies to tell them what to demand.

I can't help thinking though that China and India and other allies of Russia must have been looking at this pigs ear of a mess with their jaws hanging open. This has been so utterly ineptly handled at so many different levels, not least the way Russia has united the quarelling west and how their military has become something of a laughing stock. They have quantity and some of the equipment is high quality but not all, and the training and coordination have been dismal. I saw one estimate that is probably over optimistic but it was something like of the 120 battle groups there, 50 of them are in shreds.

Russian forces running some sort of gofundme for basic equipment (pocket knives) apparently. And being equipped with bolt action rifles for the battlefield.

Maybe (and I'm speaking from a place of ignorance here so happy to be corrected) our use of the terms 'west' and 'east' are defunct. If what we're seeing is actually a shift to democracies vs autocracies than the concept of what 'the west' means needs to be rethought. It's not 'the west' anymore. It's 'the west plus south korea et al).

@MagicFox that is an excellent point, as EVERYTHING seems to be shifting

@MagicFox I completely agree!

@SerendipityJane the basic provision can be poor for Ukrainian troops as well. Honestly things like boots are crowd funded along with ballistic goggles and radios. I've seen soldiers running around in trainers in some images.

@blueshoes

In my non-military mindset, I don't understand why it has to be a long war. The longer we string this out for Ukraine, the longer they have to fight, lose more men and more civilian deportations and atrocities will occur in the meantime by Russian troops. It also enables Russia to colonise Kherson and other occupied territory with Russian settlors which will be doubly, triply difficult for Ukraine to remove without innocent bloodshed. A short sharp war with a well-armed Ukraine whilst they still have their men in numbers. Ukraine would not need NATO boots on the ground to do this, just NATO hardware, air and firepower.

I’m not sure anybody other than Russia or Ukraine has that much control over timescale.

Certainly short of NATO engaging with the Russians directly with it’s own forces it doesn’t have a “short war”/“long war” selector….

At the moment many NATO Member states are already supplying hardware (and so firepower). If by “air” you mean NATO air power then that would effectively be the equivalent of boots on the ground, if OTOH by “air” you mean simply supplying aircraft for the Ukraines to fly then that may happen at some point but it’s not something that can be done quickly (we also don’t know what’s going on behind the scenes).

We’re stuck with it either being a long war (some analysts POV), or a short war (some other analysts POV)…a lot will depend on how Russian troop morale stands up over the next few weeks and months.