Ukraine Invasion: Part 24

[MagicFox]

Welcome one and all and thanks again to everyone contributing

We've been working in the garden for the last few weekends, painting the wood, planting the flower beds, keeping on top of the veg.

I was looking at miniature fruit trees the other day and it hit me how lucky we are to be doing this and how quickly it could change.

When this abhorrence is over and they start to rebuild, maybe money could be put by to get public parks and community gardens growing to bring peace.

🤣 A rare laugh inducing comment from these threads!

In this report soldiers in the Azovstal steel plant, speaking in an on line news conference, say there still civilians there.

From CNN 1hr 22min ago

Ukrainian fighters vow to keep fighting at besieged steel plant
From CNN's Anastasia Graham Yooll in London

Ukrainian fighters battling Russian armed forces at the besieged Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol have vowed to continue fighting.

^"Surrender is not an option," members of Ukraine’s Azov Regiment said, speaking at an online news conference.
The fighters called on the international community to help evacuate injured soldiers from the plant, which is the last holdout from Russian forces in the port city^.

Reportedly speaking from a hideout location within the Azovstal premises, Azov soldier Illia Samoilenko, said “surrendering is unacceptable for us. And chances of surviving for us if surrender to Russians tends to zero.”

He said that there are “dozens” of civilians still inside the plant.

⚡️Canadian PM pays surprise visit to Irpin.

Justin Trudeau visited the city of Irpin, Kyiv Oblast, and met its Mayor Oleksandr Markushyn. Following Trudeau’s visit, Markushyn said that the prime minister came to see Irpin with his own eyes and “was shocked” after visiting the homes of local residents who lived peacefully until the Russian occupiers came and destroyed many buildings in the city. The mayor said that he is hoping for Trudeau’s support in organizing efforts by the Ukrainian diaspora in Canada to rebuild infrastructure in Irpin.

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US First Lady Jill Biden arrived on an unannounced visit to Uzhgorod, where she visited a center for evacuees and met with Ukrainian President's wife Olena Zelenska.

One feels the timing is not coincidental and is meant to send a strong signal to the Kremlin

Biden tomorrow?

This is so strong for the women out there!

twitter.com/flotus/status/1523314688288694272?s=21&t=cdrnR3tKCRPjznXzFYI6Dw

Great timing for a visit from Jill Biden!

I’m not trying to worry anyone at all because I a
a huge worrier, but how
is everyone feeling of tomorrow I’m shitting my pants he will escalate with nukes against us 😭 can’t work out if I’m being hysterical 🤷‍♀️

I am sure it will be ok @Scoobydoooo99

They won’t want to miss their show.

Honestly don’t worry.
I have just spent the day with Ukrainians and Belarusians and they are not stressing about nuclear Armageddon and given that these are people who have no illusions about Putin I think that tells us it is not something we should be expecting in the near future.
I am not losing any sleep over it personally.

I'm feeling fine and dandy.

Honestly, relax.

World leaders are going about their business as normal.

Putin is a cunt but he's not a fool. He may well make threats re: nukes tomorrow but he won't use them. He'll put on a "good show" (assuming the tracks don't fall off the tanks due to shitty maintenance turning red square into a car park), wave his cock about whilst spouting bollocks from his mouth. Putin porn for the masses.

He knows that the West would retaliate and unlike him we don't even need to do it with nukes.

One "tactical" nuke in Ukraine never mind against a member of NATO would be a good reason to send in NATO combined air support to target Russian assets using conventional weapons and basically wipe out a huge swathe of their military and firmly end their "special operation".

Putin likes being a dictator and to do that you've got to have a nation to "rule" and not a pile of rubble.

Like many upthread, I've been getting on with normal life and planning normal things. I find it hard to get my head around the disruption to everyday life in Ukraine. I briefly discussed 'big holidays' with a relative in Dnipro and how they are a dream that they have had to abandon. Many of my relatives would have looked forward to a vacation in Odessa, or the wonderful Crimean coast around Yalta (before it was taken away). The big big trip to Sharm or Turkey etc. was something to look back on for some time as it would not be an annual event.

I would have gone to Ukraine at some point this year in the general course of things, but won't be going now. I'll be in Spain though (half my schooling and university was in Spain) and will get on with a fairly normal trip, concerned with covid passes if they are needed when I go, rather than whether a missile is going to destroy my home.

Scoobydoooo99

Putin is dead scared of covid, and there's still a lot about.
We should start a European #May9thFaceEastAndCough

@strawberriesarenot · 08/05/2022 17:40

Scoobydoooo99

Putin is dead scared of covid, and there's still a lot about.

We should start a European #May9thFaceEastAndCough
🤣

I am mainly interested to see how they will stop him shaking when he makes his big speech. Maybe strap his arms to the chair or something.

imagines Zelensky ostentatiously coughing Eastwards

Denys_Shmyhal (Ukrainian PM) welcomed the decision of the #Bundestag to provide #Ukraine with heavy weapons.

Recent Twitter post but no further information at the moment. If it's true, if, then it's about bloody time Germany.

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There are reports, no idea how reliable, that yesterday evening -another- Raptor class boat was sunk near Snake Island. The video makes it clear that it's not the same one that was docked.

Bono

Ukraine has Svyatoslav Vakarchuk instead of Bono. He fronts Okean Elzy, not U2, and has a Physics PhD. He has been an MP and like Bono has the occasional flounce or misstep.

He spoke (voiceover translation into English) earlier this week about Mariupol, Kharkiv, injured children, the role of the West, the Ukrainian military, writing poetry on being woken by sirens and so on.

Don't know if this is real but theres a supposedly leaked document of Putin's planned speech in the comments on this thread: twitter.com/samramani2/status/1523303327139725313?s=21&t=2s_NSIpDTKKK4bldEIjKXg

My favourite Okean Elzy song is Stina (the wall). Released before the Maydan protests and revolution of 2013/14 it was an anthem about breaking down walls. 'Where will be be when the war finishes, will we be strong enough to make the wall fall down?' - though perhaps prophetic it was alluding to other walls and 'wars' of various types between people and peoples. It was adopted as one of the anthems of Maydan and this video cuts images from the square with the original promotional video.

Interview with Svyatoslav Vakarchuk about his reaction to the war and role in the war effort:

www.rollingstone.com/music/music-features/ukraine-svyatoslav-vakarchuk-war-1325608/

Denys_Shmyhal (Ukrainian PM) welcomed the decision of the #Bundestag to provide #Ukraine with heavy weapons. Recent Twitter post but no further information at the moment. If it's true, if, then it's about bloody time Germany.

The Germans announced they were supplying of a handful of Panzerhaubitzen 2000 artillery systems two or three days ago….I guess @TargusEasting will be more clued up than I on how good those systems are.

@notimagain The Panzerhaubitzen 2000 is after my time, but many principles remain unchanged. I have googled it and Wikipedia (which I find more accurate than not). It is a big beast and can carry 60 x 155mm rounds to be fired in quick succession. The Wikipedia article is Here

It contains the following paragraph which I think is relevant and I have emboldened the important bits. There are 12 on their way to Ukraine, but realistically may already be there.

Mission Profile
The mission profile of the PzH 2000 was primarily designed for the threat situation of the Cold War , when development began. It should be able to follow motorized formations, get into position quickly and, after completing the order to fire, quickly change position to avoid enemy return fire. This so-called shoot-and-scoot” ability (German: 'Fire and cut off') ensures that your own firing positions are almost impossible to effectively fight with return fire. The self-propelled howitzer should be able to follow the highly mobile armored formations in order to be ready at all times for fire support against soft to hard targets. Their armor should enable firefighting even under enemy fire. The fire control and positioning equipment allows the individual vehicles a high degree of autonomy. In principle, firing positions are no longer necessary, you can shoot from any position. [17] Support from a fire control center is also no longer required. The mission profile provides that a train in a camouflaged position (the so-called covered deployment) waiting for a fire command. If such a message arrives via data radio, the guns move out of the covered position, carry out the fire command and move into a new covered position. The period from receiving the fire command to leaving the position takes a maximum of two minutes. [18]

Shoot-and-Scoot you may have heard before. We used the term PURUFO - "Pack-Up-Rev-Up-Fuck-Off". This is what the fighting will be like in the Donbas, for both sides. Get a round or two away, drop and go. Modern systems are bristling and will detect and start analysing incoming missions immediately.

@TargusEasting

Thanks for all that….

Modern systems are bristling and will detect and start analysing incoming missions immediately.

Remember being shown a Cymbeline set up on a liaison visit to somewhere green many many decades back…being easily impressed I thought that was quite clever …..today’s stuff must be truly eyewatering.

Isn't that Crimean Bridge meant to go BOOM tomorrow?

My guess is a general military and industrial mobilisation with the aim of building an 'undefeatable army' to destroy the entire 'West'. If you are a young Russian in your teen or twenties, thinking about travelling the world and getting an international degree, perhaps forget it.

(I put 'West' in quotes these days because I do not know if that term is relevant anymore. I wonder if it is more accurate in terms of democracies versus dictatorships. Less than 30% of the population live in true democracies.)

I'm not worried.

A nuke against us would be a massive, massive escalation, skipping many other potential layers of escalation, and I just don't think it's probable, and nor do US intelligence at the moment by the sounds of things.

He'll remind us all that he's got nukes and he's willing to use them because that's all he's got and it's part of the Putin playbook, but I don't think we're going out in a fireball tomorrow. If their performance in previous years is anything to go by, though, then some of their kit might...

Put it this way, I'm still writing a work report tonight to have it ready for tomorrow, and I certainly wouldn't be bothering if I thought I was about to be wiped out.