Ukraine Invasion: Part 24

[MagicFox]

Welcome one and all and thanks again to everyone contributing

Interesting: a military expert on Russian State TV giving a pretty accurate assessment of Russia's current position without being immediately shouted down. Basically a full mobilisation will be pointless in the short/medium term because the training infrastructure isn't there and they don't have modern weapons to equip them with.

mobile.twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1523036461595242498

Somebody also linked to an article by the same guy in early February where he rubbishes the assumption that an attack on Ukraine would be over in hours or days. He predicted the unified support of Ukraine by the west and even that the USA would resurrect Lend-Lease. He ends the article:

And finally, the most important thing. An armed conflict with Ukraine is currently fundamentally not in Russia's national interests. Therefore, it is best for some overexcited Russian experts to forget about their hatred fantasies. And in order to prevent further reputational losses, never remember again.

nvo.ng.ru/realty/2022-02-03/3_1175_donbass.html

That's super interesting because if the Russians have run out of drones ... Just how hard will they have been trying to get them from China, India, Turkey, all other neutral-ish countries?

If they have run out it means the Neutral-ish or even somewhat pro-Russian countries will have quietly not been willing to sell them. Which means that Russia is isolated in terms of military equipment apart from what it can take from the countries awash with weopons such as Libya, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan

Well, that is good to know.

So we are basically waiting for Russia to run out of weapons and/or men in Ukraine still they cannot easily restock.

Despite all the lies, denials and war rhetoric, Russia must know that at some level. How is Putin going to dig himself out of this one? He has run out of cards to play. Even if he gains territory today, can Russia hold on to it as Ukraine is going to keep trying to push them out? I fear and hope in equal measure we are at the end game (it is not nukes). Putin is going to torture, steal, kidnap and destroy Ukraine as much as he can in the meantime.

Good point. With their oil riches, one would have thought it would be relatively easy for Russia to buy more drones from other countries. Strange that they should not be able to secure them from the usual suspects.

You earlier posted ( UkraineNOW) that Russia is withdrawing its forces form Syria to transfer part of them to Ukraine. To your point, Russia is restocking from the middle east.

Oops, my last post was meant to quote ljsbear.

@blueshoes true. But in the wider view it means that China, who is really against the West, is not supplying weopons and that is a really big thing. I thought tbh they might quietly do so on the sly. Other countries have also taken the view that they aren't going to supply Russia

With every respect and then some to the defenders in the Steelworks, the chances of them surviving in the first place were very low. If they die, they have died with purpose, though that will not soften the grief of their families much. But in the end the Kremlin claiming Mariupol is not the greatest problem.

We need to keep the greater picture in mind too though. The greatest problem is twofold: stopping Putin's expansion into Eastern European countries and keeping Ukraine free.

Stopping Russia now is about making sure that Poland, Estonia, Lithuania, Romania, Bulgaria do not end up back in the Russian empire unless they themselves choose to go there (we -have- to respect countries' free choice, or democracy means nothing. We have to respect Hungary's position much as I despise it, and think that their position should have consequences: removal from the EU and from NATO. But supporting Russia has to be their choice, if they want to go that way).

Mariupol is a destroyed city, a hellscape of grief and despair.

We need to work now towards defeating Russia militarily and finding a solution out of their defeat that allows them to withdraw while still claiming victory, to save face. We need to think of how to save the cities of Kharkiv and Kherson and Odesa from Mariupol's fate, which might happen if the Kremlin has to face the fact they have lost. I'm afraid that many of the towns and villages in Donetsk and Luhansk are probably lost.

I have no solution as to how to ensure that the populations of Kherson, Kharkiv and Odesa are not kept safe and the buildings and infrastructure are not destroyed. The only way I can think is to defeat the Kremlin roundly and make some sort of realistic threat that if those cities are destroyed then -some- vengeance will take place on Russia, the Kremlin and Putin that will make even the hawks back down. What that would be, I don't know.

But I think we need to think beyond only Mariupol now.

those rumours again:

Euromaidan PR
@EuromaidanPR
·
12m
NATO reconnaissance aircraft verify destruction of Admiral Makarov frigate
empr.media/news/conflict-

@strawberriesarenot

So far haven’t found books for the age you are looking for. But in case anyone wants some for younger children there seem to be quite a few. There are also some Ukrainian/English for little children ( why so many we see on the news seem to speak English?)

Ebay toddler’s books in Ukrainian
www.ebay.co.uk/itm/284145803768
www.ebay.co.uk/itm/265333789287

English/Ukrainian young child’s
www.amazon.co.uk/Who-Lives-Wood-Illustrated-Ukrainian-English/dp/B08M2G212B

Actually there are quite a few for younger children so I won’t keep linking.

Please forgive the digression but on the subject of war and books this is a moving documentary about a group of men in Syria who made a library in a bombed out building from books they found under rubble.
Daraya: A Library Under Bombs in Syria | Arts and Culture | Al Jazeera

www.aljazeera.com/program/witness/2019/5/8/daraya-a-library-under-bombs-in-syria

We need to work now towards defeating Russia militarily and finding a solution out of their defeat that allows them to withdraw while still claiming victory, to save face. We need to think of how to save the cities of Kharkiv and Kherson and Odesa from Mariupol's fate, which might happen if the Kremlin has to face the fact they have lost. I'm afraid that many of the towns and villages in Donetsk and Luhansk are probably lost.

I have no solution as to how to ensure that the populations of Kherson, Kharkiv and Odesa are not kept safe and the buildings and infrastructure are not destroyed. The only way I can think is to defeat the Kremlin roundly and make some sort of realistic threat that if those cities are destroyed then -some- vengeance will take place on Russia, the Kremlin and Putin that will make even the hawks back down. What that would be, I don't know.

Ljsbear, thank you for the insightful post. It slots some of the thoughts that have been swirling in my head into place.

How would defeating the Kremlin/Russia roundly look like? My concern with a slow defeat is that each day gives Russian forces the chance to destroy more buildings and infrastructure and commit atrocites in the cities they occupy. This is wanton vandalism and genocide on an industrial scale. The octopus still seems able to grow tentacles. How do you think a decisive military defeat of Russia would come about?

I presume this is too obvious and greater minds must have thought of this. Would Ukraine use May 9 'Victory' Day to launch an offensive whilst Russians whilst they are distracted daydreaming?

So worried for the defenders left in Mariupol. I know there’s other things at stake but for weeks we’ve been hearing about the conditions there, and the fact that they’ve helped keep so many civilians safe, it feels wrong on every level to condemn them to their fate.

In terms of what they might die for, it’s just all so pointless. Look at the size of Russia FFS! They don’t need Ukraine, it’s just greed and ego causing so much destruction, and so many deaths. Fuck Putin and his victory parade, I’m hoping someone takes him out on Monday.

Dear Mumsnet
Might be an IOS issue. When using keyboard there is a black bar halfway up. On right is blue option “Done” to temporary close down eg to use another app. This does not actually work within MN, but does within other apps or when on internet. It also seems if “Post” button is close to black bar, it then does close down but the post disappears. Might be combination of IOS and handset model. Seems ok now.

Sleep time But mikitry defeat would be back to their own borders and not one step beyond. How? Well, the Ukrainian general, who is remarkably overlooked by Western press, has his plans I imagine.

The key here is how to find the bollock twisters that will intimidate even Putin. Not, luckily, my job. I wonder though if Russia's weakening military and economic and trade status will help the Powers That Be find something.

I put Trade as separate from economic status because it touches on a third aspect, respect and trust. Russia must have lost a lot of respect for their effectiveness, clout, trustworthiness and good judgement among the leadership of their allies.

More funds from U.K. to Ukraine:

www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk-provide-13-billion-pounds-further-military-support-ukraine-2022-05-07/

Good article from Michael Clarke which succinctly sums up how this war will play out into a long grind. A collapse in Russian morale and / or a Putin coup cannot be ruled out however. Any successor would have the same problems though.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61348287

If I read this correctly, it seems some civilian nurses may have stayed behind in the steelworks to attend to wounded soldiers.

censor.net/ua/resonance/3339794/yak_sasha_mogla_vyyihaty_z_mariupolya_yakscho_vona_operatsiyina_sestra_viyiskovogo_shpytalya_os_i_nadaye

Be careful with some news stories. A conflicting one overnight, though either way I do wonder if this is further evidence of Russia attempting to remove Ukrainian identity. There are also reports of Russian artillery using historic burial mounds for target practice: here

The conflicting articles relate to the strike on a small museum containing the works of Hryhoriy Skovoroda

From Al Jazeera, 08/05/2022:
Kharkiv museum workers lament destruction of famed collection
A small provincial museum dedicated to the life and works of Ukrainian philosopher Hryhoriy Skovoroda has been destroyed in a Russian missile strike in the Kharkiv region, according to workers there.
“May 6 was a terrible night. At 10:50 pm, I got a call and was told that the museum was on fire,” said Natalia Mitsai, director of the museum.
“A bomb hit the museum. The damage was incredible. The museum is essentially destroyed.”

From LB.UA, 07/05/2022:
The National Museum of Hryhoriy Skovoroda in the village of Skovorodynivka in the Kharkiv region was destroyed by a direct hit by a russian missile on the night of May 7. However, the collection was not damaged - it had been taken out.

In a similar vein, I can find no reference on Ukranian news of the strike on a second Russian battlecruiser in the Black Sea. That does not mean it did not happen of course, but there is just nothing to go on.

Is anybody else starting to see comparables in the way in which the Russian army are operating and the terrorist organisation ISIS? There are significant overlaps from kidnapping, sex slaves, torture, destruction of culture, looting of family homes, press-ganging (effectively suicide missions) and genocide.

Have all of the face to face “peace talks” seen in the early days finished?

@TargusEasting where have you seen reports of sex slaves? Not doubting this happening, just I must have missed this.

The BBC link posted is an comprehensive overview of the geography of the war to date but is a bit one dimensional on the dynamics, complexities and other grounds this war is being fought.

I think that the May 9 speculation (like all of the speculation to date) around Putins words and actions is a deliberate distraction and a waste of headspace.

We know his words are not just empty and threatening but manipulative double speak for simultaneous impact on multiple audiences. We know through history the pathology of such leaders mindsets and it only ever goes to the physical end. So we keep our ears closed to his nonsensical distractions and our eyes on the prize by increasingly supplying intel, training, equipment, support and squeezing sanctions.

We have to hope that the Ukrainians has enough skilled manpower to use supplies and sustain these efforts until Russian supplies and manpower run out because Putin will never submit but will go to the very end.

Thank you knowledgeable posters - this is such a good informative thread. On the Admiral Makarov story, Wikipedia now reports the Ukrainian Defence Minister says it was actually a landing craft that was hit - en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_frigate_Admiral_Makarov

The Guardian now have Zelensky’s full statement on their live feed. Well worth a read (would link but MN not letting me for some reason). It really resonates and will, in my view, go down in history as one of the great speeches.

Nothing Putin can say will have even close to the value and meaning and resonance that Zelensky’s speech does. He speaks for every single good person on this planet.

”…never again was the ode of a wise man! Anthem of the civilised World! But someone sang out of tune. Distorted. “Never again” with hints of doubt…..”

Wow.

FWIW the claims/images of a Russian landing craft being hit (by drone delivered ordnance) has been doing the rounds in parallel to the Admiral Makarov story for several days now...

Can’t seem to find it but will keep looking.

It’s on their live feed from 09:09