Ukraine Invasion: Part 24

[MagicFox]

Welcome one and all and thanks again to everyone contributing

I can believe it, children that age pick up on what adults around them are talking while the adults tend to forget how much they pick up. My 4 year old is thankfully completely unaware of the war but has picked up a lot of talk about strikes going on round our way and was talking about them to people today. Its why I've been so careful not to mention the war when he is around, those little ears hear everything!

Such good news about the women, children and the elderly being evacuated from the steel plant, real relief to hear that.

Sudden thought. Do we think anything could happen tomorrow of significance? In advance of Monday so there is something to 'celebrate' if that makes sense?

The other thing that caught my attention was this on bbc news 'At the display in Moscow last week a group of students stared, impressed, at an anti-tank missile as a guide explained that this was a British weapon, the likes of which were being used, right now, against Russian soldiers.' - again against the UK?

Probably just my anxiety but very worried

Er...I do not like your sudden thought. I do think there will be some kind of escalation on Monday. But nobody knows what that will be

Well that’s twice I’ve tried to post a message today and this site just deletes it. I am about ready to leave MN following this shoddy upgrade.

Neither do I. Bloody brain - off to stick my head under a pillow

Hmmm I don't like that, what's going on Mumsnet?!

www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russian-serna-landing-craft-destroyed/31838979.html

The Ukrainian military says it has sunk another Russian warship in the Black Sea near Snake Island, declaring that a missile launched from a Bayraktar drone struck a Russian landing craft.

“In the waters of the Black Sea, an enemy landing craft of the type Serna was destroyed," military spokesman Serhiy Bratschuk said on his Telegram channel on May 7.

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From UkraineNOW

⚡️Russia has begun the process of withdrawing its armed forces from Syria and is concentrating them at three airports before transferring part of the military to Ukraine

This is reported by the Israeli media. According to them, the military air bases left by the Russian Federation are handed over to the elite Iranian military-political formation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Lebanese terrorist organization Hezbollah.

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😡 Russian occupiers dropped an air bomb on a school in Belogorovka, Luhansk region

There were about 90 people in the school, about 30 more were rescued from under the rubble.

"After hitting a local recreational center , the basement of the school was the only shelter left, but the Russians took it away from the people," — said the Head of the Luhansk Regional Military Administation Serhiy Haidai

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(i don't know how reliable this twitter account it, but they do report some bad news for the ukrainians as well as sometimes good which makes me think they may be balanced. Still unsure though.

Severodonetsk is quite a big tactical town)

OSINT Aggregator
@AggregateOsint
·
4h
#Russian forces have captured the town of Nyzhnie SE of #Severodonetsk and continued their assault into Toshkivka. #Ukrainian troops are attempting to restore a defensive line in Toshkivka, but 🇷🇺 forces are already in the town. Voronove to the N, was captured by 🇷🇺 yesterday.

Actually OSINT Aggregator seem to be big on Russian attacks and damage but not so big on Ukrainian counter attacks and the gains, so the pinch of salt has been turned into a bucket

Sorry if this has already been posted, I've been trying to just spend time with the family today and not look at my phone too much so just catching up now.

Just going to post the below from BBC News for the more anxious people on the thread (inc myself)! Obviously nothing is certain but I found this quite reassuring myself.

"Russia not preparing nuclear strikes, says CIA chief

The head of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) says the intelligence community has seen no "practical evidence at this point of Russians planning for the deployment or even potential use of tactical nuclear weapons" in Ukraine.
Director William Burns was addressing a conference hosted by the Financial Times.
Russia announced it was placing its nuclear arsenal on high alert after launching the invasion of Ukraine on 24 February, and Mr Burns warned: "Given the kind of saber rattling that ... we've heard from the Russian leadership, we can't take lightly those possibilities."
"So we stay very sharply focused as an intelligence service ... on those impossibilities at a moment when the stakes are very high for Russia."

I didn't make up the little girl but anyway, on another subject.
Would anyone here know how to get hold of children's books in Ukrainian? For boys aged around 10 to 12? I was thinking of graphic books etc. My friend has a family coming to her next week and she was wondering if she could get hold of some.

Amazon. Just found them.

My thoughts are with the soldiers still in the steelworks.

Good soldiers fight to protect all civilians. That’s their very raison d’etre. With all civilians reportedly evacuated, this significantly changes the risk analysis at the steelworks. As I posted upthread, a supported break out is a possibility. The UA have equipment and nobody would doubt their training or resolve.

Good soldiers also leave no man behind. Sometimes the risk assessment stacks up, even though one outcome could be more losses. The US army went back to rescue aircrew in Mogadishu in 1993, the British special services went into West African swamps since then. All this is possible again here, what is there left to lose? And it would be the continuation of a theme that has been with us for 10 weeks or so.

Russian soldiers are not good soldiers. They have poor quality leaders and poor quality officers. Many regiments have no morals and Russian soldiers have shown they are no different to the roaming gangs that formed Isis, comprising rapists, paedophiles and thieves. We see they leave their wounded behind to die.

Quite a difference in quality of soldier and leadership. Everything to win, nothing to lose.

TargusEasting - we're sorry to hear that your posts have disappeared. Can you tell us a little more? Happy to reply here or send us a mail to contact us.

Ukraine's President Zelensky announced the preparation of the second stage of evacuation from #Azovstal.

‼ ️ Doctors and the wounded will be saved!
#SaveMariupol

UkraineWorld news

I saw this earlier and felt quite uplifted. I’m now sort of in 2 minds. Firstly my positive brain says diplomacy is clearly still ongoing and working because these evacuations simply wouldn’t be possible without it. My cynical side says that with civilians and medics etc gone there may be a loss of international attention and an opportunity for Russia to use some even dirtier tactics on the fighters left.

@TargusEasting - I took the liberty of reporting your post of 21:27, saying to MNHQ I paraphrase , "FFS, we can't lose TargusEasting as well as DGR because of this crappy upgrade".

TargusEating I did not know that the soldiers were staying to protect the civilians. Thanks for setting out that perspective.

I did not see a good outcome for the soldiers in the plant but your post gives me hope that once the doctors and wounded (like Hillsmakeyoustrong posted) are evacuated, the soldiers that are left in the steel plant can make a break for it, hopefully with co-ordinated help from outside.

God knows Putin will not let them out alive.

@TargusEasting you have to stay with us! Please. You have a knowledge and incisive assessment that adds a lot. Please stay.

For those nervous about a mad, existential escalation tomorrow remember that Jill Biden will be on the Ukrainian border with Slovakia. There is absolutely no chance in hell the First Lady of America would be anywhere near a country where the US intelligence agencies had even an iota of a concern there might be a nuclear weapon used there.

I have signed the petition

Agree with @Ijsbear that your posts @TargusEasting are invaluable

@Igotjelly I think the more evacuations that take place, the better for those evacuated! I understand your fear but maybe the soldiers can take greater risks without carrying the burden of protecting the civilians and the injured. I am trusting Azovstal will continue to amaze us.

The Kyiv Independent, [07/05/2022 23:47]
⚡️Zelensky: Authorities preparing evacuation of wounded soldiers, medics at Azovstal.

Together with the UN and International Committee of the Red Cross, President Volodymyr Zelensky said the authorities are planning to evacuate wounded soldiers, medics and remaining military personnel during the second phase of evacuation. The first phase of evacuating civilians has been completed and though the second phase is “extremely difficult,” he said that “we do not lose hope.”

Oryx AT oryxpioenkop
We haven't seen evidence of a Russian drone strike since 11/4/2022, when an Orion UCAV was used to strike a Ukrainian vehicle in Mariupol.

Russia have run out of drones is the rumour...

Lots of commentary on this

Julia Davis AT juliadavisnews
Senior military expert on Russian state TV argued that mobilization wouldn't accomplish a whole lot, since outdated weaponry can't easily compete with NATO-supplied weapons and equipment in Ukraine's hands and replenishing Russia's military arsenal will be neither fast nor easy.

Main point is its true. And no one argued with him about it.

So both Russian and Western analysts saying this...