Ukraine Invasion: Part 22

[MagicFox]

Here we are again

Another article today in WSJ "Russia tried to See a huge Slug of Oil. Nobody Wanted It":

www.wsj.com/articles/russia-tried-to-sell-a-huge-slug-of-oil-nobody-wanted-it-11650995897?mod=business_minor_pos15

Some excerpts below:

Russia’s crude exports hit a snag when Rosneft struggled to find buyers for enough oil to fill a fleet of tankers.

The problems with the sale give an early indication that European sanctions targeting Rosneft, and due to kick in on May 15, are starting to disrupt Russia’s ability to move crude from oil fields to overseas buyers.

If Rosneft keeps struggling to sell, it would represent a further shock for an economy already locked out of much of Western finance and commerce. The company says it is Russia’s biggest taxpayer, contributing a fifth of budget revenue. In total, Russia’s oil and gas sales made up 45% of the federal budget in 2021, according to the International Energy Agency.

“If they can’t sell, they’ll have to start shutting down,” said Adi Imsirovic, senior research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies and former head of oil trading at a subsidiary of Gazprom PJSC.

Unlike the U.S., Russia doesn’t have much space to store oil, so dwindling demand quickly backs up through the supply chain and prompts producers to throttle back output. Once wells are turned off, they can be hard to turn back on to their previous capacity.

I don't think this was hard really though.

They should be making large gains at this point, given the build up of troops and equipment. The fact they aren't should also be encouraging.

To put some perspective to this, yesterday Phillips P OBrien started a thread about the rate of attrition to Russian equipment.
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1518886763548319744

He's just done an update post with today's figures:

Phillips P. OBrien AT PhillipsPOBrien
Updating this as we have just got Ukrainian claims of Russian tank losses recorded yesterday. 21 more Russian tanks listed and 34 new APCs. So tank numbers still running approx 50% higher than the average of the first 60 days of the war.

The Russian 64th Motorised Rifle Brigade has reportedly suffered heavy losses near Izyum.

This unit was one that was thought to be responsible for some of the crimes in Bucha.

Some have been taken as POW. Its rumoured that the guy who phoned his wife and asked permission to rape, is amongst them.

https://www-unian-net.translate.goog/war/novosti-harkovshchiny-v-izyume-vsu-unichtozhili-chast-okkupantov-kotorye-nasilovali-i-pytali-lyudey-v-buche-novosti-harkova-11797713.html?_x_tr_sl=uk&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en&_x_tr_pto=wapp

This is positive news. I hope that they are held accountable!

They can't even dish out sanctions properly 😂

Russia sanctions MPs who aren't MPs anymore

Ooookay. Phillips says that Ukraine has claimed 918 Russian tanks lost.

The Rand Corporation and the IISS (International Institute for Strategic Studies) assess that Russia had about 2,700 tanks at the start of the war. On these simple numbers (not taking account of any russian reinforcements) ... that means that Russia has lost a third of its tanks?? If that's accurate that must be one of the highest loss rates of tanks ever!

Some have been taken as POW. Its rumoured that the guy who phoned his wife and asked permission to rape, is amongst them.

What a request to make. There really is " Nowt so queer as folk"..

CNN link - Trevor Reed freed

Clearly diplomacy continues, whatever the media would have you believe. The US and Russia must be talking to one another at some level.

nods.

pretty much.

they have some tanks in a tank graveyard in vladivostock that they can use parts from and maybe reclaim some.

but yes, they have an equipment problem thats even more acute than their manpower one.

If they can't breakthrough lines significantly now, then it begs the question, how will they later on?

The title of this wiki page is dryly amusing en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gazprombank#Changes_(deaths)in_the_leadership_team(2022)

I find it hard to believe that Russia lost a third of their tanks. Wondering if I'm missing something here.

Can't find any recent info on Ukranian tank losses and certainly no estimated percentages. Even if I could read Russian it's not like their estimates will be reliable.

David Patrikarakos AT dpatrikarakos
THREAD: I’ve arrived in Dnipro to begin covering the battle for eastern #Ukraine. Dima has been fighting since early March. “It’s like WWII but with modern technology. 2014 was a playground compared to this.” * I have permission to tweet his photo & all comments.

“Our greatest ally in this war is #Russia corruption & the nature of its army. The soldier in the field briefs his officer: ‘it’s not good but we’re holding’; next guy reports up: ‘we’re holding’; the next guy: ‘it’s going well! This is why Putin doesn’t know how bad things are.”

“I didn’t believe the war would happen bc an invasion needs at least 2-1 numerical superiority. I looked on the borders at the army there & it was clear they didn’t have it. This is crazy. Sometimes you play poker with a bad hand. #Russia is playing without any cards at all.”

“What has shocked me is the callousness of #Russia soldiers to their own men.” He shows me a photo taken from a drone of soldiers eating lunch in a ruined house near several bodies lying in the dirt. “They’re eating 20 meters from the decomposing bodies of their comrades.”

"They just drop the bodies of their friends into trenches. Sometimes they don’t even bother to cover them We found a grave of 15 bodies a while back. They’d thrown bit of dirt on them but that it was it. They don't even respect to the lives of their own comrades. Incredible."

Their tactics are insane. Chernobaivka has a small military airport. 17 times they've tried to take it. 17 times we've smashed them. Still they come. Our soldiers ask: "Are they dumb?" No, just incapable of independent thought. They just follow orders – no matter how crazy."

"Chechen soldiers? Ha We call them TikTok soldiers. They're always filming. We found one who was wounded and trying not to fight but take a selfie." "Their job is not to fight but to shoot Russian boy conscripts who don't want to fight. It's Soviet tactics.

"I want to say one thing: AT elonmusk's Starlink is what changed the war in #Ukraine's favour. #Russia went out of its way to blow up all our comms. Now they can't. Starlink works under Katyusha fire, under artillery fire. It even works in Mariupol."

Maintence issues and being exposed on roads to ambush.

Well, the west has sent 1000s of anti tank weapons to Ukraine and they are highly effective against the T72.

So i can quite easily believe 900 losses especially if other armoured vehicles are included in this total too.

"I can quite easily believe 900 losses especially if other armoured vehicles are included in this total too".

You're no doubt correct and I think you've identified part of the problem with some of these stories - some sources seem to think anything with armour and painted green is a tank.

Most credible sources have Russian losses at about 600 Main Battle Tanks (MBTs), total Armoured Fighting Vehicle (AFV) losses at well over a thousand...

ifunny.co/picture/journalist-s-guide-to-tank-identification-zsCTOhwb6

Just saw a post on Twitter with Putin once again threatening to use his weapons! As much I am feeling disgust at what’s happening in Ukraine I hope the West isn’t pushing him too far! I don’t think Putin is the sort of person who would admit defeat .
twitter.com/rt_com/status/1519315839782117376?s=21&t=CZcPtXsbtRLLpNDF7aRtdg

Worrying that Belarus is proposing to introduce the death penalty for terrorism, given that their interpretation of terrorism seems to be 'anyone who does anything we don't like.' Men who allegedly sabotaged the railways were badly beaten upon arrest, and today it has been reported that a taxi driver who refused a Russian soldier as a passenger has been arrested. Anyone who wonders why Ukraine is fighting should take one look at life in Belarus.

It really looks like something is about to happen in Transnistria.

I am sorry - not in the flow of the present discussion today - but I have just been thinking of the Azovstal steel plant and the basements we have heard about in the news: the Soviet Union seems to have built a vast amount designed withstanding attack in mind.

We in the Europe did not as far as I am aware build the equivalent basements we are seeing in Ukraine ( even if we do have some bunkers).

It has dawned on me that the USSR lived far more in fear of us than we ever did of them. Perhaps this is still true.

It bears remembering that, to date, the US remains the only country to have used nuclear weapons in anger (hopefully it stays that way). There was very little reason for the USSR to assume they wouldn't do so again.

It has dawned on me that the USSR lived far more in fear of us than we ever did of them. Perhaps this is still true.
For sure. Its countries that have fears that build such extensive bunkers, that's why Finland has a fuckton too. The countries holding the cards militarily speaking don't really need all that preparation.

There was a news item on this quite a while back, possibly on one of these threads, I can't remember. But it said that Russian tanks are built to withstand modern western anti tank weapons. One hit and it's game over. Lack of training also plays a part as it's obvious from the footage they don't know how to use them defensively, so avoiding that one strike is pretty hard

Vladislav Davidzon
at VladDavidzon
·
2h
This was well understood on security circles but is now being confirmed by Americans, essentially Ukraine was given defacto NATO level security briefings in real time which allowed for destruction of Russian troop landings

The latest video from Azovstal is so distressing. Over 600 sick and injured people with no means of treatment or sanitation. The commander looks absolutely desperate (and visibly in a worse condition than in his last message).

• aren't built to withstand

CNN link re Putin statement

I'm not sure what to make of his statement to law makers. Clearly it could be read as "i'll use nukes if needed" but it also makes reference to potential western interference in Ukraine, as if he doesn't consider proper interference to have happened yet. It feels to me like it harks back to the point the Washington Post (I think) was making a few days ago about Putin and the West setting boundaries to the conflict subliminally.