Ukraine Invasion: Part 22

[MagicFox]

Here we are again

The Kyiv Independent AT kyivindependent
Germany is 'days away' from becoming independent of Russian oil.

During a visit to Warsaw, German Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck said his country is “very, very” close to independence of Russian oil thanks to the efforts to diversify suppliers and the support from Poland.

Though Russian oil imports made up about 35% of Germany’s oil consumption in 2021, Habeck said that his country, which had been reluctant to support an oil embargo, agrees that “we must quickly free ourselves from the grip of Russian imports.”

Russia's response to Germany getting off their oil (thanks to Poland) is to cut off the gas pipeline to Poland

Clearly a warning to Germany

One of the big things is demographics. They simply don't have the manpower for another war and to rebuild their economy to a point they can manufacture / buy replacement equipment

I'm rather waiting for Lavrov to start telling Russian women to have more babies. Possibly encouraged by strange shortages of the Pill.

As I see it, the plan by the 'west' (here I think we are talking about the US with some tacit and loose collaboration from Europe) is to nudge Russia gradually to a position where it implodes to the extent it faces a stark choice of accepting European values and eventual integration in some form or looking Eastward becoming a vassal state and/or heavily indebted to China. This is a 40-50 year timeline. Importantly, the Kremlin guard as we know it today will all be dead. It is not ordained that those that follow will be of the same mould.

I think this has always been the plan, but it needed the right catalyst and this is what we see coming to fruition now. The difference is US resolve backed up by US intelligence which seems to on the mark.

There are rumours about Moldova...

Ukraine World AT Ukraineworld
Residents of the unrecognised "Transnistrian Moldavian Republic" receive fake SMS from ostensibly Ukraine's armed forces, warning of a "missile and artillery" strike. According to Ukraine's intelligence, that's the way Russia prepares a provocation with civilian casualties

Enrique Arbora AT enriquearbora1
This is the forged SM

It states that, at 19:00 hours (local time), a "Ukrainian bombardment" is going to take plac

Right now, only 15 minutes left to reach that supposed deadline.

TRANSLATION 1/:

Hello, dear residents of the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic! The Security Service of Ukraine strongly recommends that the civilian population evacuate to safer regions.

We assure you that the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not wish harm to civilians however, the people remaining in the cities will be perceived as sabotage groups and will be liquidated without warning.

The Armed Forces of Ukraine provide civilians with time to evacuate - until 19:00 local time.

Exactly at 19:00, rocket and artillery shelling 3/f military facilities on the territory of the Republic will be carried out.

You have been warned.

Glory to Ukraine! Glory to the Armed Forces!

-END

Meanwhile the Moldovan President has appealled for calm

Something or nothing?

I guess the ‘danger’ here is the short term nature of western politics. Nothing to say in 2 short years we won’t have someone of Trump’s ilk (if not the very man himself) back at the helm of the US. By its very nature this makes long term strategising incredibly difficult.

What a horrible thought. I would not put it past Putin and his ilk. Along with making abortions illegal.

Or ban abortion entirely, like Poland. I am still surprised it's allowed over there, TBH.

What a horrible thought. I would not put it past Putin and his ilk. Along with making abortions illegal From that pov they'd almost be catching up to the Deep South of the USA. (Although the Deep South is not given to invading other sovereign countries)

Could someone explain why the Moldovian president doesn't just warn everyone that Russian false flag operations are taking place, not to believe what has been said and to get the fuck out?

Most residents of Transdnistria only watch Russian news. They actually block each others channels...

.

Finnish foreign minister has confirmed reports from yesterday that Finland and Sweden are likely to apply together for NATO membership as early as mid-May.

There's a saying in Russian of "cutting the branch you're sitting on".

I think they've made that threat a few weeks ago...

Also reports that Moscow has halted gas supplies to Poland.

Sorry cross post with @MagicFox

@TheABC Poland is ruled by so called Katotaliban who claims that every life is sacred. There were country wide women protests in last couple of years.
Corrupted government, no sexual education, open hostility towards LGBT (with declaring some areas free of them), fucked up ideology…

Add some possibly falsified presidential elections, attacking EU in the name of defending “traditional values” and so on.

Poland also struggles with population decline. So called 500+ (monthly benefit for 1 child) is not enough to encourage people to have kids. Add tax increase to finance that then inflation…

Political party ruling Poland is as transparent as BoJo’s intentions and as truthful as Lavrov.

I think Austin’s response to Lavrov’s comments was very measured and helpful. To state outright that the US won’t engage in nuclear sabre rattling brings, in my view, the temp down a little. Imagine we had Trump right now threatening to bring even bigglier nukes 😑

twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1518927835737600000?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1518927835737600000%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwyborcza.pl%2Frelacje%2F1412686228376403.html

There. Access to Odesa only from Moldova 🙁

Russian Defence is threatening British advisors who said that Ukraine has right to strike Russian supply routes and the weapon supplied by the West is able to reach teritory of Russia from Ukraine.

London “provocation” is enough to trigger the reaction from Russia.

@FrenchBoule I read it as a retaliation against Ukraine was threatened not against us specifically?

I also read it as that @elephantmarchingin. I think it was a pretty silly comment to make on our behalf though.

Yea that's right, I think they said they'd retaliate against Kyiv as a proportional response

Which they would do anyway. Seeing as they are at war with Ukraine. They don't need an excuse/justification cos they are simply bastards anyway.

They are too chickenshit to hit us. To put it bluntly.

Actually he said its quite likely that Finland and Sweden will announce their decisions whether or not to join Nato within days or weeks of each other but that no decision has been reached yet and it still lies in the hands of Parliament, and clearly refused to confirm the rumour of Mid-May. Hesinki Sanomat said that the decision will most likely be made by the end of May.
I think this confusion all stems from Sweden moving forward the date of their security report to early/mid-May instead of late May but I don't understand why it still keeps getting reported wrong!

Now Croatian President has said that Croatia should block the entry of Finland and Sweden to NATO unless Bosnian electoral law is reformed. Its not in his power to block though, but Croatian Parliament but its worrying if they are of the same mind as the President. yle.fi/news/3-12418999