Ukraine Invasion: Part 22

[MagicFox]

Here we are again

The doublethink is astonishing.

It seems Russia is stunned by Ukraine audacity to attack Russia, but it's right for them to attack Ukraine?

It's utterly ridiculous, and once Putin opened that particular box of delights, how do you put things back in?

FT article this morning with a good overview of Russia's position at the moment and supporting @RedToothBrush's view that Russia is not far off a formal declaration of war: www.ft.com/content/63411b89-bf29-4865-b128-89c11870aeca

(If it's behind a paywall, google the headline and the content will come up for free)

Reports from near Kherson this morning. 70 Russian soldiers killed and ammo depo destroyed.

Awaiting more reliable reports.

@RedToothBrush
From Al Jazeera - might be the same report?

The Ukrainian army says it has prevented two attacks in the Kherson region over the past two days.
In a statement on Facebook, the General Staff of the Armed Forces said Ukrainian troops also killed 48 personnel and destroyed 13 pieces of enemy equipment, including two tanks.
It added that in the Black Sea, Russia was using its submarines to “terrorise civilian shipping” so it would be free to lift its sunken warship, the Moskva.

Possibly. Possibly not. There also seem to be reports of 5 villages liberated in the area too.

I will see if I can find something a bit more reliable. Definitely seems to be a lot going on there today though.

Tweet this morning I obviously can't verify
<<<<<<
Fighting began in the suburbs in the morning, it is very audible in the city, probably either a mortar or artillery is working, in the surrounding villages people's houses and windows are shaking from explosions

Tomorrow Russia intends to hold a referedum in Kherson.

LiveUAMap reporting this morning :
Russian troops seized the building of Kherson city council, expelled all employees.

Iuliia Mendal AT iuliiamendal (Washington post contributor, former Zelensky spokesman)
The situation in the Kherson region is tense. There were explosions and shelling in almost the entire region. Kherson region is on the verge of a humanitarian disaster - General Staff

Russia is also trying to push up to Kryvyi Rih in Kherson region atm. This is Zelensky's home town. If I'm reading between the lines here, the Ukrainians seem to think going for this will be a Russian disaster area, because it will stretch them unnecessarily.

But yes, next 24 - 48 hours in Kherson generally seems to be significant.

Theres also reports of more Russians being pushed up the front this morning (maybe they are getting a new general?!)

Full official Ukrainian update from General Staff UA

Seems to confirm TWO significant incidents in Kherson

Needs independent verification now but seems to be consistent with the last few days of reports and expectations.

Michael McKay Aat MHmckay
Ukrainian defenders gained "control of the territory in the area of 5 more settlements of Mykolayiv region near the administrative border with Kherson region."
–Mykolaiv Regional State Administration

There we go. Thats the third confirmation from Ukrainian sources (independent verification needed)

Canadian Ukrainian Volunteer AT CanadianUkrain1
Top of the morning to you.

Russian second phase has begun all across the Southern and Eastern fronts. They have dedicated roughly 25,000 troops combined for this offensive.

The Russian artillery we heard yesterday was directed at the villages of Novovorontsovka, Trudolyubivka, Knyazivka and Novopavlivka and some other settlements as the initial phase of their attack towards Kryvyi Rih. They have attempted two attacks across the regional boundary with Dnipropetrovsk region but were repelled and suffered significant losses, which we will discuss soon.

The usual artillery exchange took place between our forces and the Russian artillery in Chornobaivka area that was targeting Mykolaiv.

The Russians continue to actively use UAVs for reconnaissance, but are having shit luck because we keep shooting them down.

In the area of Velyka Oleksandrivka, Kherson region, we've destroyed an ammunition depot and more than 70 Russian soldiers were killed. The Russians also suffered casualties in the area of Novodmytrivka and Bilousove.

The numbers: in the last 24 hrs on the S front, the Russians have lost 150+ military personnel, 3 tanks, 4 armored vehicles, 2 trucks, 6 engineering vehicles and 2 UAVs. These numbers aren't final.

Russia's sending additional forces in the direction of Kherson from Simferopol in Crimea to reinforce the offensive.

Things are certain to become worse before they get better. They will keep coming at us with everything they've got. The next few weeks will be taxing.

Glory to Ukraine

^^

Thank you for these threads.

@RedToothBrush · 26/04/2022 07:15

cepa.org/vicious-blame-game-erupts-among-putins-security-forces/

READ THIS ARTICLE!

I have. Thank you. It is alarming.

If I have not misunderstood, the Russian army thought they should not have abandoned the original plan for invading/capturing the whole of Ukraine.

Given what has happened so far when they were trying to do that, but failing, why are they so sure it was wrong to reduce their aims? Is it because they think that it only went wrong because they were acting under “peacetime constraints”?

Does this mean that the military or the FSB has concluded that the war, with its enormous casualties and incompetent direction, was a mistake? The short answer is no, quite the opposite.

Russia’s military believes that limiting the war’s initial goals is a serious error. They now argue that Russia is not fighting Ukraine, but NATO. Senior officers have therefore concluded that the Western alliance is fighting all out (though the supply of increasingly sophisticated weaponry) while its own forces operate under peacetime constraints like a bar on airstrikes against some key areas of Ukraine’s infrastructure. In short, the military now demands all-out war, including mobilization.

This part is especially disturbing:

The telegram channel “FighterBomber” associated with the Russian air force, posted on April 12 a comment about NATO’s weapon supplies to Ukraine: “Naturally, we’ll further increase air defense units on the border with Ukraine in order to cover our territory from ballistic missile strikes, but it is also clear that NATO countries have far more weapons than Russia.”
The author expressed optimism that the Russian air force will be able to staunch the flow of Western supplies, but warned that further Ukrainian victories “will almost certainly prompt the use of nuclear weapons” against targets in Ukraine.

I realise that was April 12, but might this still be the thinking?

The article ends with the fact that even if the general, Minnekaev, who mentioned Transistria was maybe only voicing his own thoughts rather than an official policy,

The most plausible explanation was that having recently attended General Staff meetings, he became over-excited at what he had heard, and then revealed the news at the first public meeting thereafter. Regardless, it is a sign that the Russian army wants more war rather than less.

Apologies. F*king New MN.

Red, your phone is playing up again! :)

You just need to make a strong cuppa RTB

Yet Russia now is demanding we back down or else!

Lavrov can see how this conflict is going, so is seeking to bully and scare us into limiting our support & we mustn't give in to this

We cannot forget that Lavrov is a master manipulator. He is going to keep going on about nuclear weopons to scare everyone. From what someone said earlier, battlefield nuclear use is in the Russian dogma, but that does not mean it's automatically going to be used. Again, Lavrov is going to push this line as hard as ever he can to scare the West.

I don't think battlefield nuclear use is impossible. But I think it's a lot less likely than he wants us to believe.

I also don't think that it will be the end of the world or automatic escalation. If nukes are used everyone is going to be very, very upset and the pressure on Russia from its allies to STOP will increase massivley.

I think we have to be realistic about not being too scared.

Using a theatre nuclear weapon in the battlefield would yield two results for Russia - deep isolation politically and defeat on the battlefield (within 100 hours). A Nato aerial counter-attack against Russian troops and aircraft would hardly be seen as an escalation. And Russia would only be able to use one once. So I don't think it is coming. Not that a long drawn out war with an imprecise border while Russia attempts to rebuild itself over the next 40-50 years is a good outcome either.

If you try to post but get the server down message, don’t wait and try again. Just refresh the page in your browser and it should (hopefully) post.

@Ijsbear and @TargusEasting

Good posts, agree entirely.

@Ijsbear and @TargusEasting

Good posts, agree entirely.

@MNHQ Was your site upgrade a Russian design and build? I only ask as it does not seem to be going to plan.

Thank you everyone for the recent updates. I'm getting the impression that the RU army is doubling down, rather like a drunken gambler on a last hand. They have to produce something good soon to account for all the lost equipment, soldiers and economic impact back home. Plus, they can't possibly admit how shit their operations are, compared to a smaller enemy.

I can't see how declaring war will help Russia with its objectives. Calling up the draft will mean more ill-trained, low-morale troops in the field, making matters worse. From what I have read, Russia does not have the time, equipment or knowledge to re-engineer their economy to produce modern weapons, at least like those NATO is supplying. I can't see China being keen on giving Russia an industrial leg up, either, although I am sure they are happy to buy oil in exchange for weapons. At best, it will help public sentiment back home, especially as sanctions squeeze living standards in the cities.

@borntobequiet · 26/04/2022 07:59
I might have said this out loud before, but I've been pondering on all those folk from the troll farms.

I remember one such going spectacularly bonkers at me on a Westminstenders thread when I directed them to a thread on Style&Beauty about a nice French bob as being more aligned to their level of knowledge about the EU. The thread was full of holes from the subsequent deletions. Their bonhomie was entirely superficial. But I wonder how the experience of posting on Mumsnet changed them. Did they come to envy those who wash their towels after every use or agonise over their brand of mascara? Or finally LTB in St Petersburg?

How extraordinary.
Your last sentence has made me laugh in a welcome way, I must say, after RedToothBrush’s READ THIS article posted earlier which I found alarming.

Much what I was thinking, thanks.

The CEPA insights are overall positive I think in this reality.

It shows deep tensions and divisions within the Russian system - and these are likely becoming more and more polarised and entrenched as the external pressure escalates from all angles.

In fighting, power grabs and resistance can only be a good thing in terms of destabilising and fragmenting any existing war strategy or political, military, intelligence regime, as any time, energy or focus diverted away from the front line is an opportunity for Ukraine to push on.