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Ukraine Invasion: Part 22

1000 replies

MagicFox · 23/04/2022 10:06

Here we are again

OP posts:
Thread gallery
34
LoveLarry · 25/04/2022 23:59

And the "signature illegible" bit in the book

It's pure farce.

RedToothBrush · 26/04/2022 00:04

It gets better. In one of the other photos published you can read the text (well i cant cos its Cyrillic...). Its a hand written note which is signed 'signature illegible'.

Yes really. They copied it. Much howling over social media.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 22
RedToothBrush · 26/04/2022 00:13

Somewhere outthere is a guy, with anhidrosis, called Signature Illegible now shitting his pants and refusing to drink tea or walk near windows.

blueshoes · 26/04/2022 00:17

RedToothBrush · 26/04/2022 00:04

It gets better. In one of the other photos published you can read the text (well i cant cos its Cyrillic...). Its a hand written note which is signed 'signature illegible'.

Yes really. They copied it. Much howling over social media.

😂[Wiping tears from eyes]

WeAreTheHeroes · 26/04/2022 05:56

If you read some more of the Tweets on the threads about this you'll see that some posters are saying "Signature Illegible" is the pseudonym of a character in a neo nazi novel.

Tillsforthrills · 26/04/2022 06:08

RedToothBrush · 25/04/2022 21:18

Tim White AT TWMCltd (general round up of stuff in Ukraine and Russia)
LiveUAMap AT LiveUAMap (similar to above but less personal)
Max Seddon AT Max Seddon (Russia watcher)
Michael Weiss AT michealdweiss (US based commentary and opinions. Often picks up stuff before others)
Christo Grozev AT Christogrozev (intel and security services related)
Phillips P OBrien AT PhillipsPObrien (Military Analysis)
Kamil Galeev AT Kamilkazani (Russian political history expert)
Kevin Rothrock AT KevinRothrock (Russian watcher)
Jack Detsch AT jackdetsch (pentagon reporter)
Jimmy AT JimmySecUk (similar to Michael Weiss really but from British POV)
Illia Ponomarenko AT IAponomarenko (Ukrainian journo for Kyiv Independent)
Fionna O'Leary AT fascinatorfun (general twitter influencer who picks up on some of the most interesting news related tweets around - she is mainly focused on covid and Ukraine war atm)
Nick Reeves AT nickreeves9876 (similar to Fionna)
Max Fras AT MaxFras and Yaroslav Trofimov AT yarotrof are also occasionally exceptionally good.

These are my go tos atm but there are a few more I keep a close eye on. These tend to pick up on other interesting things going on / accounts of interest so you can't go too far wrong with these as your base.

This is amazing @RedToothBrush

Thank you for taking the time to list them.

TargusEasting · 26/04/2022 07:11

Not sure if this has been linked yet, but credible strategy now publicly emerging from the US. The initiative shifts and the long game unfolds. China’s response will be defining. The US gets to testbed it’s systems again.

edition.cnn.com/2022/04/25/politics/biden-administration-russia-strategy/index.html

Igotjelly · 26/04/2022 07:15

What are the thoughts on Lavrov’s statement around Russia essentially being at war with NATO? The sensible part of me is leaning towards it being yet more bluster but I do have to admit it rattled me a little this morning.

RedToothBrush · 26/04/2022 07:15

https://cepa.org/vicious-blame-game-erupts-among-putins-security-forces/

READ THIS ARTICLE!

It explains where we now are, and where the heads of the military and security forces in Russia are and why they are making the decisions they and the comments they are. Best article you will read today I suspect. It gets your head around all the public Russian comments including Lavrov's yesterday.

Key paras

The frustration is becoming so intense that it has spilled over into the public space. Alexander Arutyunov (aka, the blogger RAZVEDOS), a well-known veteran of Spetsnaz of the National Guard, made a video plea to Putin: "Dear Vladimir Vladimirovich, please decide, are we fighting a war or are we masturbating?"

And

The author expressed optimism that the Russian air force will be able to staunch the flow of Western supplies, but warned that further Ukrainian victories “will almost certainly prompt the use of nuclear weapons” against targets in Ukraine.

And I really think this paragraph is interesting
Privately, the army, and even the secret services, have been heard to blame not only the Fifth Service of the FSB for misinforming the president, but also the president himself for making a bad call on changing the military strategy.

Putin not being regarded as tough enough...

And the final para

Does it matter? It matters a lot. This is the very first time the siloviki are putting distance between themselves and the president. Which opens up all sorts of possibilities.

RedToothBrush · 26/04/2022 07:17

Also, read the above article and think about what Zelensky has been saying and what various Western Leaders have been saying.

It matches.

elephantmarchingin · 26/04/2022 07:44

Sorry if it's been discussed but what is the end game now, what direction is this going.

All I can see is Russia getting more desperate with nothing to loose so escalating?

I'm sure there is a plan but it seems like negotiations have stopped, that communication has stopped which is a dangerous situation for all

MagicFox · 26/04/2022 07:45

Exactly what I'm wondering elephant

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 26/04/2022 07:52

Michael Weiss AT michealdweiss
This thread nicely encapsulates why Estonia has been one of Ukraine’s most stalwart defenders—not to mention a keen and prescient observer of Russia’s shambolic military campaign. When foreign policy is an existential issue, you can seldom afford to screw it up.

This is the PM of Estonia

Kaja Kallas AT kajakallas
Here’s what I focused on in my Berlin Speech on Freedom

When I was 11, my dad took us to see the wall by the Branderburg Gate. He said: “Breathe in deeply – that’s the air of freedom that comes from the other side.”

Born under Soviet occupation, I had never experienced freedom. Now I can stand here and breathe that same air of freedom.

If we do everything to help Ukraine, there will be no 11-year-olds for whom the air of freedom is something they only experience from a distance.

Why is Russia fighting the war in Ukraine? Russia does not want freedom and democracy to prevail. It is a direct threat to dictatorship.

While Ukrainians are defending their freedom, the Kremlin and Putin have made their aim clear: to wipe Ukraine off the world map.

History matters. Although the Soviet Union collapsed, its imperialist ideology never did. In Russia, the history books never changed.

We have let Putin get away with aggression several times before. We can’t let him get away with it again.

Putin's strategic aims haven't changed.

Like AT Denys_Shmyhal says: If Russia stops fighting, there will be peace. If Ukraine stops fighting, there will be no Ukraine.

We should have the courage to say: Ukraine must win this war.

And we must act accordingly.

That means we need to continue support Ukraine’s fight for freedom, while building up pressure against aggressor with further sanctions and political and economic isolation.

We need a long-term policy change towards Russia. The free world should follow the motto: “When the facts change, I change my mind”.

We have seen huge and historic turnarounds. Also here in Germany. But as long as this aggression is not stopped, we have not done enough.

I understand the difficult choices democratic leaders face today.

But our neighbour’s problem today will be our problem tomorrow.

It’s time for everyone to use their moral compass.

Full Speech:
https://valitsus.ee/en/news/16th-berlin-speech-freedom-kaja-kallas-prime-minister-estonia

I begin to wonder about the micro generation of Xennials just beginning to take power in Eastern Europe.

I was 10 when my parents took me to the border in Germany. A year or so later it was gone and the next time we visited my grandfather we drove into East Germany and saw the difference. We felt it.

Many years later DH and I travelled to Bosnia and Serbia. And then more recently we went to Estonia and Latvia. Whilst we were in Riga it was Independence Day that had an impact on us... During the same trip we visited a nazi concerntration camp. It had been set up as a memorial but also had the hallmarks of the Soviet era. There were these massive concrete figures who were utterly haunting and impressive. And almost spoke of the glory of the soviet union as much as the haunting tragedy of the holocaust. But unlike other memorials in Eastern Europe this one has fallen into some disrepair. Being in Latvia whilst it was Independence Day this made sense - as time has passed the connection people have with the sight is less about WWII and more about the more recent living memory of oppression under the Soviet Union. Its not that people have forgotten here, its that they remember their own oppression and they understand it must be protected and fought for. The Xiennials, in particular, are people who have children who are a similar age to when the wall fell. This is incredibly poignant and amplifies the feeling of responsibility of our time.

Western Europe never had this experience. And the UK perhaps is unique because we have this national identity about fighting for democracy which isn't the same as in other Western European countries. Hence our reaction is possibly different because our national psychology is different.

For me, my subsequent lived experiences are really accutely ingrained into how I feel about Ukraine.

For me there are no choices about certain things unfortunately.

And I wonder what the mirror effect in Russia is, with the security forces, army and Putin himself seeing an existential threat to their control...

The clash is huge. There isn't going to be a backing down on either side, because neither can. I am wondering if we have no choice but to wait for the internal collapse and collapse of the army. If it happens...

RedToothBrush · 26/04/2022 07:57

elephantmarchingin · 26/04/2022 07:44

Sorry if it's been discussed but what is the end game now, what direction is this going.

All I can see is Russia getting more desperate with nothing to loose so escalating?

I'm sure there is a plan but it seems like negotiations have stopped, that communication has stopped which is a dangerous situation for all

I don't think negotiations are possible.

To be blunt.

Where is that taking us?

I don't think we know. Not really.

Russia and Putin is losing control of situation itself tbh. The way they act is able trying to regain that control. I don't think they realistically can. Not outside their own borders.

Its how long it takes to realise this and what they do in the meantime.

But realistically Ukraine and the West have no other alternatives until Russia works this out for itself.

borntobequiet · 26/04/2022 07:59

I might have said this out loud before, but I've been pondering on all those folk from the troll farms.

I remember one such going spectacularly bonkers at me on a Westminstenders thread when I directed them to a thread on Style&Beauty about a nice French bob as being more aligned to their level of knowledge about the EU. The thread was full of holes from the subsequent deletions. Their bonhomie was entirely superficial. But I wonder how the experience of posting on Mumsnet changed them. Did they come to envy those who wash their towels after every use or agonise over their brand of mascara? Or finally LTB in St Petersburg?

RedToothBrush · 26/04/2022 07:59

More in Moldova
2 radio transmitters destroyed as result of explosions near Mayak village in Transnistria

borntobequiet · 26/04/2022 08:01

Sorry I’m not so good at the serious stuff. But so appreciative of those who are.

MagicFox · 26/04/2022 08:04

So effectively we're in 'existential threat to the state' territory which, for obvious reasons, is pretty scary

OP posts:
RedToothBrush · 26/04/2022 08:05

Lucy Fisher AT LOS_Fisher
NEW: Britain supports Ukraine's right to attack Russian territory & to use Western-donated munitions to do so, James Heappey declares.

Defence minister tells AT TimesRadio that Moscow started the war & it's 'completely legitimate' for Kyiv to target Russia's 'depth' & logistics

Heappey recognises the weapons the West is giving to Ukraine 'have the range to be used over the border' of Russia

He notes many countries around world operate 'imported' kit, adding: 'You tend not to blame the country that has manufactured it, but the country that has fired it'

Alexandra2001 · 26/04/2022 08:06

Igotjelly · 26/04/2022 07:15

What are the thoughts on Lavrov’s statement around Russia essentially being at war with NATO? The sensible part of me is leaning towards it being yet more bluster but I do have to admit it rattled me a little this morning.

I find it strange how Putin has changed the rules, so in previous conflicts, where each side has armed the folk fighting either the US or USSR armies, there was no talk of Nuclear etc.

Yet Russia now is demanding we back down or else!

Lavrov can see how this conflict is going, so is seeking to bully and scare us into limiting our support & we mustn't give in to this.

RedToothBrush · 26/04/2022 08:08

MagicFox · 26/04/2022 08:04

So effectively we're in 'existential threat to the state' territory which, for obvious reasons, is pretty scary

We have been for a while (which I've said). I think its becoming more acutely pronounced because Russia aren't getting what they want and panic is setting in.

I think the next move will be a formal declaration of war tbh.

When thats going to happen, I don't know. Not sure how far we are off that.

OwlsDance · 26/04/2022 08:09

Igotjelly · 26/04/2022 07:15

What are the thoughts on Lavrov’s statement around Russia essentially being at war with NATO? The sensible part of me is leaning towards it being yet more bluster but I do have to admit it rattled me a little this morning.

I think he's referring to NATO supplying weapons and all the sanctions. We are in effect at war by proxy. Putin was counting on the West not doing anything or doing very little, like before. So it's a good thing that we are. Now they feel like a teenager grounded for gross misconduct - flailing about and screaming "but it's not faaaair!"

Natsku · 26/04/2022 08:10

That blame game article was interesting and slightly terrifying. I guess I had just hoped that opposition to Putin would come in the form of anti-war not not-enough-war. Naïve I suppose.

katem98 · 26/04/2022 08:12

@OwlsDance This is how I've interpreted it, too. I'd like to think that if we genuinely thought we were putting the whole world in danger with nuclear threats, peace talks would be more pushed on all sides. I'm just plucking at straws to try and stay as calm as possible.

RedToothBrush · 26/04/2022 08:27

I am fairly calm with it. To an extent that article only echoes what has been said before. Its just more detailed and tangible.

The idea that Russia is crazy still doesn't hold up. They are acting in a rational way for their world view and position. And this is the thing you have to keep in mind too.

I would rather be dealing with rational actors starting to panic that its all going tits up than crazymen.

If there are rational actors, you have some options for what could happen and how it will stop the excesses of insanity from unfolding.

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