Ukraine Invasion: Part 22

[MagicFox]

Here we are again

No wonder the Ukrainians knew what to expect!

Programme on BB2 tonight at 9pm called "Navalny".

@ PerkingFaintly
Thank you for the break down about what happened in Georgia. I haven’t seen ‘Russia, Putin and the West’ and will watch it.

From Al Jazeera about the result of talks with the U.S.A
34 mins ago (13:31 GMT)
US State Department backs ammunition sale for Ukraine
^The US State Department has said it supported the approval of a possible sale of $165m worth of ammunition to Ukraine.
The Ukrainian government had asked to buy various rounds of so-called non-standard ammunition, the department said in a statement, referring to ammunition that does not adhere to NATO standards.^

Does it matter that the ammunition would be of ‘not NATO standards’? What are the implications, does anyone know?

My, limited, understanding is that to official meet NATO (and other standards) requires certain testing and specifications to be met. My assumption would be that this might include ammunition that is still under development - in essence the US get to try it out on the battlefield.

I might be totally wrong but that's how I read it.

Does it matter that the ammunition would be of ‘not NATO standards’? What are the implications, does anyone know?

Russian made stuff so ammo/shells/missiles the Ukrainians can use immediately in their own weapon systems.
the 165m is then used to backfill the inventories of the countries providing it with NATO standard issue.

Sky talking about it right now.

@PerkingFaintly not a population vote but parliament needs to vote on it. I think the constitutional law committee is currently looking at whether it can be a simple majority vote or needs to be two thirds majority.

Isn't it also fairly standard stuff that can be produced very quickly to support those in fast escalating situations ?

On the front page of the Telegraph today😅

Suzanne Lynch @ suzannelynch1

At last, US President Joe Biden names an ambassador to #Ukraine - Bridget Brink, currently ambassador to Slovakia.

(#Ukraine has been without a US ambassador since #Trump fired Marie Yovanovitch in 2019)

Does it matter that the ammunition would be of ‘not NATO standards’? What are the implications, does anyone know?

? Calibre?

Others here will know the details but if we're talking artillery rounds etc Ukraine has a load of Russian legacy kit that isn't of the same calibre (bore) as used by NATO.

For example (I'm probably completely wrong) but a lot of Ukraine artillery is I think 152mm bore, whereas the closest NATO standard equivalent is 155m....

If that's the sort of issue involved then all the statement isn't hiding anything sinister, it's simply saying is the US is providing e.g. ammunition not built to a NATO specification.

Sweden and Finland have just announced that they will be submitting the NATO applications together in week 20.

Ooh Putin will be furious.

BBC article about conditions in filtration camps outside of Mariupol

A bit from refugees of Mariupol on conditions in the Russian filtration camps. Fairly horrible unfortunately.

Nearly all Belarusian airports are used for the Russian army's purposes. Both civil and military airports accepted 🇷🇺 aircrafts that later attacked Ukrainian cities. At the same time, more than 800 employees resigned at their own request from Belarusian airports.

twitter.com/franakviacorka/status/1518601268025077760?t=tzZubU9t9kxvwcHa9sP2Bw&s=19

Adding my good wishes for their safe journey and arrival.

Long term lurker.

I had a read on BBC Russia website (I speak Russian) where they talked to a few people that also escaped Mariupol. They narrative was quite different, they said the camps weren't that bad, the conditions I mean.

They did talk about interrogations and looking through phones. Russian are also very deceitful regarding where the buses or trains are going, telling people they can get off at any stop but then not being allowed to. They all said they do return passports. Some Ukrainians end up lying that they don't support ukraine and are happy to leave because of fear of repercussions if they told the truth. Russians also kept offering them to declare themselves as refugees, there's 10k rubles payment if they do that, but most people don't want to stay in Russia, so they refused. The ones that BBC talked to, managed to leave Russia via Estonia, Armenia, Georgia, etc. mostly with help of volunteers who helped them.

@OwlsDance · 25/04/2022 16:22
Long term lurker.

I had a read on BBC Russia website (I speak Russian) where they talked to a few people that also escaped Mariupol. They narrative was quite different, they said the camps weren't that bad, the conditions I mean.

They did talk about interrogations and looking through phones. Russian are also very deceitful regarding where the buses or trains are going, telling people they can get off at any stop but then not being allowed to. They all said they do return passports. Some Ukrainians end up lying that they don't support ukraine and are happy to leave because of fear of repercussions if they told the truth. Russians also kept offering them to declare themselves as refugees, there's 10k rubles payment if they do that, but most people don't want to stay in Russia, so they refused. The ones that BBC talked to, managed to leave Russia via Estonia, Armenia, Georgia, etc. mostly with help of volunteers who helped them.

That is interesting. thank you. I wonder why we haven’t seen a translation of that in the U.K.? Would it just be a delay because of needing a translation?

Do you think anything more damming might have been censored,l?

I think I’d feel alarmed if Vladimir Putin was wishing me good health and well-being.

Trent Telenko mentioned something which MIGHT relate to this.

He retweeted the following:

Vassil Velichkov AT VassilTT
Would it be helpful for Ukraine AF to get proximity fuzes compatible with the Russian calibre 152mm munitions? Such as:
https://arcus.bg/proximity-fuze-ar-139-for-122mm-130mm-152mm-artillery-ammunition/

Trent Telenko AT TrentTelenko
This is a good suggestion as far as helping the Ukrainian military in the short term. The West should buy up the world market of 152mm artillery shell proximity fuzes and air ship them to Ukraine ASAP.

Now I'll be honest, I have no idea what this is. But what it did make me consider was the point about Ukraine's equipment all being Soviet specifications and stuff that NATO has, isn't compatible (remembering all that Russian munitions and equipment they've captured too).

The other point is that if the West buy up all this Russian/Soviet spec equipment and munitions so that Ukraine can use it - it both pushes up the world price for it and it means there is less of a supply for Russia to buy up too.

If things continue long term, then Ukraine can slowly switch over to NATO spec stuff as they get training and production gets ramped up. But Russia who can not manufacture, buy Soviet Spec munitions anymore and may struggle to find alternative systems from a third party (especially if you need to also train with them).

By getting the none NATO standard stuff and giving it to Ukraine you effectively speed up the time it takes to deplete the world supply that Russia can use with its systems and you push the price up to levels that makes it harder for them to get on the black market.

The tweet above really made me think about why its important and worthwhile the west gets its hands on as much of the finite supply of Soviet/Russian made munitions and associated equipment - both small and large, because this makes things more difficult for Russia and Ukraine can use as much of the stuff they've captured as possible too.

I've no idea, I don't think it's censored. I think BBC isn't even allowed in Russia, but there's a work around (just for clarification, I'm in UK).

I do think there's a delay, I've noticed a couple articles in the past that only made their way a few days later. This one was published 2 days ago.

But bot everything gets across to the UK version, it would get too much otherwise. BBC must be in quite a number of countries.

Another interesting article is about IT professionals leaving Russia en masse. Estimates fir March are 50-70k, April will be another 70-100k. Some leave because they are employed by foreign countries and are told they can't work for them if they stay in Russia.

Online forums advise those that work in IT to tell they work somewhere else at border control, as the border people will try to persuade not to leave, or might cause issues. Russia is getting desperate, there's a promise of IT being exempt from conscription, subsidised mortgage rates, etc.

This is just the start of brain drain, just one industry. Mid March estimate was that 200k of Russians already left. Must be a lot more now.

Haven't seen that in the Finnish news yet, where did you hear this?

This is also fascinating:

Foreign Policy AT ForeignPolicy
The Russian army’s failure to capture important logistical hubs in Ukraine means they cannot commandeer local railway infrastructure to transport their infrastructure and soldiers farther into Ukraine and capture more territory.

Dr Phil Weir AT navalhistorian
AT ForeignPolicy piece by Emily Ferris of AT ISS_RUSI looking at Russia's reliance on & troubles with rail transport in its #UkraineWar However, it's worth bearing in mind, particularly amid further talk about Odesa & Mykolaiv, that Russia also has a port opening problem.

Probably the first port Russian forces took in the first days of the #UkraineWar was Berdyansk. The first ships to enter arrived in the middle of March & around ten days later they appeared to have cleared just two berths, whereupon the Saratov was sunk.

It would appear that since the loss of the Saratov, Berdyansk has either not, or been little used. Whether this is due to the sunken hulk of the Saratov & other damage, or ongoing issues with the port's security from further attack, or both, is unclear.

It now appears that Russian forces have taken control of the larger port area of Mariupol, which is known to be blocked with sunken cranes & other vessels, is almost certainly mined & has suffered far more extensive damage than Berdyansk.

By any stretch of the imagination, Mariupol will take an enormous amount of work to restore to anything resembling working order & it's unclear that the 68th Fleet Naval Engineers Regiment (Black Sea Fleet's engineering unit) have anything like the engineering capacity required.

In theory, possession of key ports like Mariupol & Odesa would allow Russian forces to at least start to unjam & bypass some of their worst logistical bottlenecks (though by no means all, of course - once ashore, material would still have to be distributed by road or rail).

Likewise, it should be added, transport via Ukraine's extensive inland waterways, particularly the Dnipro, also remain shut off

In short, the apparent state of play at the relatively small port that they have been in occupation of for some time does not bode well for Russian forces being able to exploit Ukraine's maritime south, even if they do manage to take possession of other key ports.

Foreign Policy Article from post above

Status-6 AT Archer83Able
It appears that a Russian Sukhoi Su-34 fighter-bomber has been shot down over the Kharkiv Oblast today.
Links to video (which you don't need to see for the purposes of this post)

Trent Telenko AT TrentTelenko·
While the text below says Ukrainian shoot down, other looking at it see s flat spin with no signs of missile damage. I think this is the first video documented case of RuAF operational attrition in high end jets from a lack of quality spare parts & maintenance.

This is also consistent with the reduction in VKS sortie rates over the last 3 weeks from 300-ish to 180-ish.

The point here (which is why you don't need to see the vid) is that Telenko thinks that planes are starting to drop out the sky because they can't maintain them properly anymore.