Ukraine Invasion: Part 22

[MagicFox]

Here we are again

I think it’s a consequence of having an out of touch dictator. Nobody is going to tell him how badly organised everything is on the ground

it's the extremity of it though and the reek of sheer desperation to claim sainthood. Odd.

The Russian propaganda is very old-fashioned and pompous, that's what makes it even more difficult for us to understand.

Ukrainians are much better at this.

"The visit to Ukraine by Anthony Blinken and Lloyd Austin was all that you might expect.
A visible show of support. An announcement that US diplomats will return to Ukraine shortly. The promise of more military support.
But what stood out was this comment from Austin: “We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can't do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine. It has already lost a lot of military capability… we want to see them not have the capability to very quickly reproduce that capability.”
That is a surprising thing for a US defence secretary to say.
He might, of course, have been referring to Western sanctions degrading Russia’s military industrial base.
Or was he instead expanding Western war aims? Was he even implying that a longer war in Ukraine might be a useful thing?
Not all Western allies might share Mr Austin’s position, or his candour."

BBC News website... what's everyone's views on this?

I think he's saying what everybody else is thinking.

“We want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can't do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.

So it wont invade other countries: Moldova, Estonia, Latvia ... Georgia, Azerbaijan ... Kazakhstan ... etc. No straightening the lines/borders, supporting 'oppressed' Russians in next door territory. Back in their box and staying behind own borders.

I think he means sanctions. Going to active war with Russia would set the entire world against the US. And China.

Has anyone heard about China's actions/inaction atm re Russia and Ukraine? They might be plain tied up with Shanghai atm

.

I think he means sanctions as well as well as arming Ukraine to weaken Russia economically and militarily.

Just heard from my friend in Kharkiv. She's finally decided that she can no longer stay in her home and is going to be making her way to the border, with her 4 remaining dogs and mil and hopefully on to Denmark where she has distant family. She hopes then to be reunited with her young son. Her husband will be remaining in Kharkiv. Wishing her all the luck in the World.

On the surface, I'd agree that he is referring to sanctions.

Unofficially, another way to degrade Russia's military might is for a long drawn out war with Ukraine. The longer the war goes on, the more generals, men and artillery and military equipment Russia will throw into the war and lose. It will be a slow bleed out and would be agonising in terms of the humanitarian cost to Ukraine.

OR a faster way is to more actively sabotage Russia's military war machine in targeting its military factories and fuel depots using Ukraine as a plausible cover. After all, Russia is pretty much full on pounding Ukraine anyway, no holds barred.

The latter is controversial but I wonder whether there is a reason behind the mysterious fires in Russia.

It's been confirmed by Russia that Mariupol will be discussed with Antonio Guterres when he meets with President Putin on Tuesday. Please God let something come from it, though I'm not holding my breath.

In that case a conspiracy theorist might wonder if Zelensky is a puppet whose constant calls for arms gives the West a reason to keep supplying them.

1m ago - Russian defence ministry said it is opening a humanitarian corridor at 2pm (11:00GMT) for all civilians to leave the Azovstal steel plant.

The cynic in me worries about 3 things:

1. That Russian soldiers won't actually bother to hold their fire


2. That anyone who uses the corridors will be quickly disappeared to Russia


3. That Russia will claim civilians are in fact fighters in disguise and kill them anyway.

@ChardonnaysBeastlyCat · 25/04/2022 09:38
ScrollingLeaves
@ChardonnaysBeastlyCat · 25/04/2022 09:23.
“re the South Stream Gas project that would have benefited Greece.
Thank you for your answer.”

It's not just that, it was also the fact that it was then rerouted through Turkey that added insult to injury.

Thank you for explaining.

@Ijsbear · 25/04/2022 11:01
There's something that is bugging me about Russia's media war in all this. They are constantly trying to claim some sort of humanitarian high ground, desperate for the appearance of happy Ukranians under their rule, desperate to show a united, anti-West and pro-Special Operation Russia. Never targetting civilians, nothing but nice, saviours against the terrible disgusting morally bankrupt Ukranians.

The disconnect between the reaching for a moral high ground - when you listen to them, it's like they are claiming an Utopia - and the reality is so far apart that it seems strange. If they put as much effort into improving coordination and maintenance as they do into the media and population-control, they'd win hands down.

So it's almost like the Russian govt is more concerned about appearances than about effectiveness. Which seems an extremely odd way to run a war and it seems to me that there's something else going on. Every side has propaganda in a war, most sides massage figures (except apparently in this war, Ukraine) but the level and the extremity of the presentation of moral superiority makes me wonder if there's a motivating factor that has been missed.

I think unfortunately that they may be much more successful in reaching an apparent high ground of moral superiority in the eyes of large sections of the world than we would like to believe. This would mean they gain influence and power against the West I think.

Last night I was looking at the Avostal steel works video of the children there being given Easter gifts by soldiers, on the Al Jazeera news website. This had translations of what they were saying in the video, in English.

There were over 600 comments below and, as Al Jazeera has a wide audience, I am sure the comments were not by any means all Russian.

Almost all of the comments were to the effect that these were foul Azov nazis holding the children and women as a human shield meaning the soldiers were total cowards.

Others were saying they should let them out - the Russians have offered so many times - they could be safe and free, but no one seemed to know that they would be deported and meet an awful fate so of course they did not dare leave.

Others did not believe the video as the children looked too clean and well to have been in there so long, and there was no water there.

There were just a few comments trying to point out the reality, including the atrocities or the deportation buses and the taking away of passports, but they were pounced on as being ridiculous, or bots.

Hmmm that explains it ScrollingLeaves thank you.

Sigh.

@Igotjelly

I hope your friend and her dogs gets there safely.

Good luck to your friend and her dogs @Igotjelly

Russian propaganda is odd, Russian media is telling Russians that Finland has already voted to join NATO, not sure why they would be saying that.

It's depressing that the middle East is so heavily proPutin

Adding my good wishes to your friend's journey @Igotjelly and safe arrival

Does there need to be a vote for Finland to join NATO, and is there a % turnout needed to make it valid?

If so, the Russian propaganda is to suppress the vote (an absolutely standard Russian strategy, which they'll do by hook or by crook).

I hope your friend is able to leave Ukraine and reach Denmark safely with her dogs @Igotjelly .

Just popping into say that I have dipped into a few of these threads, and a read lot of the last one and this one, and would like to add my thanks to the posters who provide information and analysis.

I don't think the failure to discuss it means that people don't care, just that we can't do much about it.

Yes, unfortunately I agree very strongly with ScrollingLeaves at 25/04/2022 13:01.

It has long been the case for Putin that winning the information war is at least as important as winning the physical war. Hardly surprising, giving the former makes the latter easier.

He also doesn't care about the lives of his soldiers and citizens, but does care about protecting himself and his regime, so high levels of deaths in battle are nothing to him.

I've been watching BBC2's series "Putin, Russian and the West." Episode 3 on Georgia has been eye-opening for me, because I didn't follow that closely at the time.

In brief.
– Areas of Georgia declare themselves breakaways.
– Russia offers Russian passports to anyone who wants one.
– Georgian central government engages militarily with breakaway forces.
– Russia sends in Russian troops as "peacemakers" and repairs railway to carry heavy military items.
– Fighting escalates.
– Russia tells Georgia the only way to stop fighting is for Georgia to unilaterally stop.
– Georgia stops briefly, then restarts military action.
– Russian government (Lavrov?) on its hind legs portraying bafflement and rage that Georgia hasn't obeyed.
– Russian "peacekeepers" are killed in shelling.
– Russian military sweeps into non-breakaway areas and heads for Tblisi.
– US flies food aid into Tblisi in US military planes, to make a point, and Russian military advance halts.
– Russian government again portrays outrage. Lavrov says in TV interview something like, "They should be grateful I didn't decide to take Tblisi." He looks as though he means it – as though he sees Russia as the owner of Georgia, and he gets to choose what happens there.