Ukraine Invasion: Part 21

[MagicFox]

Another thread, thank you to all

www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/vegetable-oil-m25-traffic-b2061510.html?amp

I did think this was particularly careless given the current situation 😂

I'm another avid reader on here but the Mumsnet update has made it nigh on impossible for the last two days. I don't have much to add except that a family member has been matched with some Ukrainian refugees, so that should progress next week. Everyone I speak to is still discussing the war and what we can do.

Also, a different family member who is in the arts had contact this week from a Russian organisation offering them an opportunity. Trying not to be outing but think something along the lines of a music residential or dance show. They researched the organisation and it was legitimate but emailed them back to say thanks but no thanks because of the war. The person responded saying how they understood and how all of their friends and family are against the war too. They said that they cannot protest in the traditional sense because of the laws but do participate in all legal forms of protest (I do not know what that might look like). They also said they'd still like to offer the opportunity once the war was over. I just thought it was interesting, they were likely to be fairly young and middle class due to the nature of the business but they used the word war and were vehemently against it I hope their emails don't get checked

If there is a sabotage campaign going on within Russia, I wonder if it's an anti-Putin resistance movement or a Ukrainian version of SOE or maybe a cooperation between the two?

What are your thoughts on the media coverage generally on this war?

I as split about the means to communicate any Russian 'sucess'.

a) News should be impartial and as full as possible so we should see any Russian victory and gain some knowledge of any Ukrainian casualties.

b) We are allies to Ukraine and our media should refrain from highlighting any Russian success as it could act to reduce Ukranian morale and give Russia information about Ukrainian weaknesses. We do not want to be inadvertently part of any Russian propaganda exercise in addition.

what are your thoughts?

There seems to have been a lot of facilities / factories etc that ought to have shiny new equipment that don't. The administrative trail says they are there, but they are mysteriously missing. The stuff was 'bought' but not really and the money went into the oligarchs' bank accounts.

But now the lack of results from the non-existent new machinery is becoming a problem. Gazprom past executives, many of whom also had their hands in the tills to an extraordinary extent, have had this really very strange rash of murder-suicides in the last 4 months.

Trent Telenko is implying that the equally odd rash of fires etc is to cover up the thefts so that the people in charge can say well we did have them.

But if I was one of the dreadful Russian people in charge I'd be using this sabotage and we have to defend ourselves by taking control of Ukraine and the criminals there. Johnny Dymond's series implied strongly that in fact Russia staged its own attacks on its own people to claim exactly that, that Chechens were attacking Russia, so that it could go in and flatten Grozny the way Mariupol was flattened and other cities are under attack.

Anton Barbashin AT ABarbashin
Speculative thread on Russian military communication. Why announce plans to create a land bridge to #Transnistria while most of your forces are not even there and are clearly set to encircle UA troops in around Kramatorsk area? Divert attention from where you actually attack?

Everyone has jumped to discussing Russian "imminent" attack on "Odesa and Moldova" while just a couple of weeks ago Russian army has proved that it is incapable of doing just that. It can't fight multiple fronts at once. It has to regroup and attempt to take one at the max.

Moreover, it kind of sounds dumb to announce exactly where you going to attack next BEFORE you've dealt with Ukrainian resistance in Donbas. It seems clear that Russia has to change tactics from early March and thus would not be doing the same dance twice.

So it is reasonable to expect efforts to encircle Ukrainian forces in Donbas, and assert control in South-East of Ukraine at the max for the foreseeable future. I don't buy the "9th of May victory announcement" hype but clearly you don't want to start yet another offensive

Right before it and risk being overstretched yet again. So the way I see it: Russian forces will continue with the Donbas plans while scaring Ukraine, Moldova and the rest with plans to create that land bridge to Transnistria diverting attention from the East to South

Russian military and political leadership announce and change "military goals" couple of times a week, so please do take everything that is said with two extra pounds of salt. It's war - so all official info by default is part of it.

Plus it makes Russian military sound like they are eager to fight and are not in fact dealing with the results of 2 months of heavy fighting and losses (it is not going according to the plan). Attempting to show good posture while in fact having a terrible back pain.

Nonetheless, in a hypothetical negotiations for ceasefire you can trade your non-plans to create a land bridge to Transnistria for something real and meaningful. But again, what seems true today might not be the case tomorrow. It's war we're talking about.

Absolutely fascinating. This is where those with expertise in warfare, propaganda and diplomacy are invaluable. To be able to cut through the noise.

@RedToothBrush Most people aren't interested in politics. They just want food, shelter, safety, work and dignity.

But politics is all of those things, from how often your bins are emptied all the way through to how much we spend on the defence budget, its all politics. People moan about the stuff that affects them and then in the same breath say they aren't interested in politics.
I think children should be taught how and who to contact if they aren't happy with the way their local and national world is working. It is suprising easy to make changes if you contact the right people. People power should never be underestimated.

This is exactly why it irks me when people say they don’t vote because they aren’t interested in politics!

In terms of Russia announcing one military strategy and then doing another, it is still attacking the Azovstal plant. Ukrainians reported this yesterday and it has been confirmed today.

@Wrongkindofovercoat
I wholeheartedly agree with everything you've said. I'm 23 so haven't been of voting age for an awfully long time and I have to hold my hands up and admit that, actually, for the first 2 years I didn't vote. Not because I'm not interested in politics or that I'm ignorant, it was purely the fact I had absolutely no idea who to vote for or no idea where to obtain information to help me decide. It was rarely talked about in school and I couldn't tell you back then where to look for any information.

Of course politics is about those things. People don't make the connection until they lose those things. When they do, then they get interested in politics out of necessity.

ljsbear: Trent Telenko is implying that the equally odd rash of fires etc is to cover up the thefts so that the people in charge can say well we did have them.

Thanks for the explanation re: oligarch's possible self-sabotage of the military facilities to cover up their theft. It makes sense.

Ministry of Defence Press Office AT DefenceHQPress
United Kingdom government organization
The is exploring sending British Challenger 2 Tanks to While no decisions have been taken, these would be deployed on a short-term basis and operated by UK personnel to bridge bridge the gap between Poland donating tanks to Ukraine and replacements arriving.

Mike Urban AT MikeUrban01

More on the announcement of tanks to Poland - given the logistic constraints they'll be doing well if this amount to a couple of dozen

Not quite as Johnson was claiming in his press conference

@RedToothBrush thanks for your post about russian military communication. I think im (far too slowly) realising that whilst weapon warfare hurts the body, information warfare hurts the mind. This war has been a real eye opener for me on the significance of information warfare.

Trent Telenko is implying that the equally odd rash of fires etc is to cover up the thefts so that the people in charge can say well we did have them.

I wonder how thorough insurance investigation is in Russia ?

depends if you pass them a gratuity

Of course politics is about those things. People don't make the connection until they lose those things.

I work in the health sector and I am sure my local MP would hate me if he knew how often I asked people if they had contacted their MP and provided them with the details to do so. Often they say things like 'they wouldn't want to bother him' until I point out that he is paid over 80k to be bothered by them. I do the same with the borough and county councillors too because fair's fair

BBC Radio 4
Letter From Ukraine
Acclaimed Ukrainian novelist, Andrey Kurkov, reflects on roosters, refugees, Genghis Khan and national identity in the final letter in this series.

15 minute listen. The series has been superb, imo. Links to previous episodes on the site

@Hillsmakeyoustrong · 22/04/2022 21:18

@RedToothBrush thanks for your post about russian military communication. I think im (far too slowly) realising that whilst weapon warfare hurts the body, information warfare hurts the mind. This war has been a real eye opener for me on the significance of information warfare..

This is so true. ‘Far too slowly realising’ echoes my thoughts exactly. It is running through our society too. We should be taught to spot it in school.

Often they say things like 'they wouldn't want to bother him' until I point out that he is paid over 80k to be bothered by them.

That is the salary package for a train driver on the West Coast Mainline, East Coast Mainline or Great Western Line.

For an MP, £80k meets the opportunity cost to attend The Commons and they get vouched expenses too. Attendance is just that, allowing them time to devote to their wider interests in commerce and/or the community. The pay is not dissimilar that of a Russian member of the Duma.

Why did I just say that.

On th eother hand Targus at least Parliament is not just a rubber stamp for Bojo ...

Spoonamore AT Spoonamore
A thread on the Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant explosion and fire. On Twitter
I mostly post on Data Security (20year as a CxO and Votehacking. But I also have 9 years as CEO and longer on BODs of AdvancedMaterials / NanoMaterials.

The extreme damage, perhaps total destruction of this chemical plant is going to have a spectacular and massive impact on the RussianArmy. Possibly grinding entire systems to a stop in weeks, perhaps even days.

Like many industrial sectors in #Russia, they tend to be centralized, massive + singular. This is generally a result of historic centralization of production under the Soviet model, and a fear of building massive high-cost infrastructure by nonRU firms BASF DuPont etc.

At one of my prior firms, bid products from this plant. AFAIK, they are the only maker of a huge range of solvents and reactives of this kind in W. #Russia.

Among the products this plant made are the additives needed for advanced rocket/jet fuels, treatments/solvents for servicing metal parts, core input chemicals for explosive and solvents/traces/washes needed to manufacture electronics and circuits.

This plant, was a PROCESS CRITICAL Tier 2/3 supplier to dozens/hundreds of suppliers for everything needed in war. For those who may think Tier 1/2s will have stock on hand; Nope. At most 2-3 weeks as these are VOCs (Volatile Organic Compounds) that die on the shelf.

I will provide a Domestic Example. In mid 2020 Midland MI had a 100 year flood and a massive local dam failure. That flood knocked out DOZENS of 1-of-a-kind US Specialty Chemical processes centered in that area. My firms, and 100s of others had to scramble for global backfill.

It took 18+ months of global fill-in sourcing for US firms to stabilize post Midland Floods and US Production still has not fully recovered. RussiaSanctions will prevent them from doing the same. I am certain in every corner of Russian industry is in full panic.

I have been reading the brilliant #RussiaUkraineWar coverage of others on twitter but if this ChemicalPlant Fire is as bad as it appears, this will not be a long war. Russia has lost a unique key tool it needs to make War.

Of course the solution to this issue will likely be China. I am sure they are likely scrambling to backfill/replace Russia as I type, but that is going to be complicated on a numerous levels.

RedToothBrush I hope this is true. I hope this is Ukraine's lucky break.

There will be the one thing that is not spectacular but which changes the entire course of the war.