Ukraine Invasion: Part 21

[MagicFox]

Another thread, thank you to all

@Insertdeadcatsnamehere

Just to add that I think there might be an element of this happening a generation or so late for the full horrors of it be appreciated (but then, Bosnia. So, I don't know...). It's probably mostly only older adults now who grew up with first hand stories of the world wars rather than seeing it as "history" and I think that makes a difference. I remember my grandfather's opinion of Putin and that he needed to be watched and I'm glad in a way that he died a couple of years ago and doesn't have to watch all this happening, much as I'd like to discuss it with him. I know he'd be annoyed that nobody was talking about it much and I suspect he'd be all for going in with both boots on and calling Putin's bluff. He also had plenty of stories about the behaviour of the Russians in Germany just after the war. It's endemic in a way it isn't with other armies and nothing has changed.

I agree with this. My dad served in the Polish Free Army during WWII and he too had stories about the way the Russian military behaved. He said that surrendering Germans would literally run towards the Allied Forces and particularly the Brits, fearing and knowing what the Russians would do to them if they got hold of them. I too am glad that he’s not here to see history repeating itself, albeit this time with added threat of a nuclear option.

I have been very grateful for these threads from the start. It's the only place I can find news that makes sense.
Thank you.

I actually think that’s really positive, as is the working meeting he’s also expected to have with Lavrov. Would imagine that China will have had some say as a permanent member of the SC and as Russia’s main ally .

There are reports of water gates being blown, causing severe flooding, near Krasnodar in Russia. Tweet attached. I wonder if this is just shoddy workmanship or another act of sabotage?

(The region that Krasnodar is in borders Crimea to the west, across the Kerch strait - I’m not sure if that’s somewhat significant as there are still several hundred km between them).

I sincerely hope, and believe, that there is a decent Russian resistance movement working away in the shadows.

BBC news: Russia aims to seize southern Ukraine and to open a route to the separatist region of Transnistria in Moldova, a senior Russian general says.
Maj Gen Rustam Minnekayev specified that Moscow would seek to take "full control" over the south in addition to the eastern Donbas region - the stated objective of the Russian authorities.

He definitely wants all of Ukraine doesn't he? It's gone from wanting the East to now wanting the South with access to Moldova. Then, when he's totally cut Ukraine off from the Black Sea which will drain Ukraine's economy, it will be even easier to take the rest of the country. It will be entirely surrounded by 'Russia' except for in the north west.

As in the gates to the large reservoir outside the town?
If so it is rather Dambusters without the bouncing bombs.
Could be a cunning strategic move, given that the roads to the Kerch bridge are downstream of the dam.

Can all these events be a coincidence? Probably.

BJ and war lasting years and Russia could 'win'.

Is this expectation management of a view by the West that we are nearing a level of military support above which we do get more worried about Russian retaliation against us?

is the real politik of the situation that ultimately there must be some sort of peace and the peace should be such to guarantee global security?

I always had a fear that if parts of Ukraine remained in Russian hands for some time they would be considered part of Russian sovereign territory by the Russians and therefore attacks on this territory (especially supported logistically by NATO) could lead to the escalation threatened by Russia
previously.

Although the risks of nuclear conflict are slim can the West take any risk what so ever of this eventuality considering the consequence?

It may be we have to find a co existence with Russia but there will be a lot of nose holding at a diplomatic level given the war crimes that have been comitted.

Yes I think it's very positive too, I'm just surprised. And to be honest I think Putin is too far gone to listen to anyone, so not sure what this meeting will achieve, but it is good nevertheless.

I will never forgive Russia for the atrocities of this war

Thanks to everyone who contributes to this very informative thread, I have read every single posting, too ignorant and not very articulate to be able to contribute myself, but I’m understanding more all the time, thank you all

OSINTtechnical
@Osinttechnical
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1h
The Ukrainians are reporting that due to international sanctions, production at the Ulyanovsk Mechanical Plant has halted. The plant is responsible for a number of products, including the Buk, Tunguska, Pantsir, and other complex systems.

All these fires and such like within Russia.

I really hope it's not false flag attacks.

My sense is that if they were we would have had more noise from Russia by now. What good is a false flag if no one is paying attention.

If it was false flag, I presume Russia would bomb their own civilians ahead of key military assets. I feel safe that these are pure accidents sabotage. Nothing to see here ...

Surely they wouldn't take out their own useful facilities though? Also, they'd be making a bigger fuss and blaming Ukraine already.

I'm hoping it's either Russian resistance, or sabotage from other parties.

I've noticed that although Bookmarking isn't working on this thread (and any other thread from before the cock up of a upgrade) and keeps reverting to a bookmark from Tuesday , any thread that was started since the cock up of a upgrade, I can bookmark successfully and the bookmark "sticks"

So, I'm looking forward to Thread 22

If it was false flag, I presume Russia would bomb their own civilians ahead of key military assets. I feel safe that these are pure accidents sabotage. Nothing to see here ...

It seems to have happened to justify the Chechen war. Johnny Dymond's series on Radio 4.

@baroqueandblue I get it! It’s really hard trying to be honest but also not scare them. It’s wrong to completely ignore it but equally all we can do is hope, pray if we are inclined to do so, and wish for it to end while we get in with loving our normal lives. Yet it also feels wrong to be going on as normal and I for one feel guilty for paying more attention to this war than I have to others over the last twenty years. Some of that is because I can pay more attention without messing up my mental health whereas I couldn’t previously but some is probably also because it literally is closer to home rather than the other side of the world too. Also because it’s not in any way possible to decide it’s a civil war and thus unlikely to spread further afield. It’s horrible.

I wonder of all these seemingly murder suicides are like surprisingly falling out of high windows. Families too to reduce the number of possible witnesses and people who may push for answers and ask questions.

but yes, taking out actively useful facilities really is very close to literally shooting yourself in the foot!

There is a guy in Mykolaiv who uses his Airbnb to fund the army. I have booked him a couple of times now. Is anyone else sending money into Ukraine this way? I think a lot of people did go via Airbnb originally?

From Trent Telenko about the odd rash of fires in major factories and facilities in Russia:

While I would love this to be about Ukraine. I think what we are seeing the standard answer by the Oligarchs to avoid accountability for corruption in Putin's Gangster state

I am not sure I understand what Trent Telenko mean. Why would an oligarch burn down a facility and how does that allow them to avoid accountability?

British supermarkets are now rationing supplies of cooking oil to customers as they are struggling to meet demand.

Lewis Goodall AT lewis_goodall

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