Ukraine Invasion: Part 20

[HappyWinter]

Thanks to everyone for taking part in the thread.

However there is something of a counter argument that theres not much extra this opens up to the Kremlin in reality.

my companion pointed out that if they are officially at war, they may be able to do a number of things that they can't while officially at peace. Martial law for one and perhaps wider conscription with less get-out bribery options. Still, the quality of recruits is not likely to be high.

If Russia thinks it's losing though then I'm afraid their decisions will become more volatile and unpleasant.

@Ijsbear

However there is something of a counter argument that theres not much extra this opens up to the Kremlin in reality.

my companion pointed out that if they are officially at war, they may be able to do a number of things that they can't while officially at peace. Martial law for one and perhaps wider conscription with less get-out bribery options. Still, the quality of recruits is not likely to be high.

If Russia thinks it's losing though then I'm afraid their decisions will become more volatile and unpleasant.

If Ukraine were given a few nuclear warheads maybe Russia would become less volatile (although still unpleasant). The Russian logic in this war is like a kids' game. How can they flatten half a country and be indignant at the thought of being attacked in retaliation?

I have name changed for this post. A colleague has travelled from the UK taking her Easter leave to join with others to assist with refugees. She is from Romanian/British and has joined others from her home city, driving down to a place called Palanca to help. This is a small village on the border by the sea. These are some of the things she has sent.

We are in Moldova, it's heart-breaking how scared these people are.

There are a lot of military as well as civilians who are trying to help. The food is short but everybody is bringing something. We had some more people from Bucharest that came over yesterday to help and brought some more food.

Moldova is already extremely poor, they don’t even have enough for themselves but we are all doing what we can.

They have tents arranged to get the new refugees, that’s where we stay, they all come here to get food and some clothes etc. anything they need.

There are a lot of wives and women that cook at home and bring the food prepared to here, the men are also making teas and drinks for them.

It is so sad...you can't even imagine. I cried everyday since i arrived here. It's just unbearable.

I will leave on Sunday back, but my heart is just broken. I will be very sad to leave them.

Although the refugees are safe they are still in fear for those who have been left behind and for their men. The destruction of Ukrainian cities has been thorough and is not over yet.

The refugees only have what they could carry. Everything they left behind has been looted or destroyed. Accommodation is in tents and there is no other housing because Moldova like other regional countries are relatively poor. They are likely to be living in tents for a very long time. The situation is likely to get worse and even more crowded as this war continues.

It is the wrong time of year for local food. The only thing they receive now is hot food from individuals like my colleague or charities. A charity that is getting donations directly into their hands immediately by co-ordinating shelter and food is - www.actionagainsthunger.org.uk/ukraine-appeal

Cognitive dissonance is a very very real thing. I think all of us experience it a tiny bit (who hasn't realised they've told their kid off for doing something that they realise later that they've done themselves!) But Putin uses manipulation and Media messages very deliberately and skilfully. He was trained in manipulation in the KGB to a degree I don't think most of us can comprehend, both personal and societal, and he has a gift for it.

Unfortunately he seems to have lost awareness of any value in truth. One day he'll want to be believed and no one will because he lies so much that you automatically disbelieve him. Except the people who want peace at any cost, who choose not to see the pattern of his behaviour.

I think myself the thing that Putin is afraid of more than anything else is being laughed at and mocked. His pride > all. It fits the pattern ...

@Ijsbear

However there is something of a counter argument that theres not much extra this opens up to the Kremlin in reality.

my companion pointed out that if they are officially at war, they may be able to do a number of things that they can't while officially at peace. Martial law for one and perhaps wider conscription with less get-out bribery options. Still, the quality of recruits is not likely to be high.

If Russia thinks it's losing though then I'm afraid their decisions will become more volatile and unpleasant.

Even if they do get more conscription, if they are sending troops in a drip drip drip then they aren't making the best of that.

And they csnt get conscripts to the front lines with any training before June at the earliest.

And even then, they are already resorting to using civilian vehicles for logistics.

@Ijsbear I absolutely agree and what becomes even more terrifying is what he will do if he feels that he is indeed being laughed at and mocked ….. Malignant narcissism unleashed.

I think myself the thing that Putin is afraid of more than anything else is being laughed at and mocked.

Poor ickle Putin !!!

Do you really think that's going to act in anyway as a deterrent to the meme generation ?

Mind you, Stalin must be furious. Unquiet spirits stalk the land.

#Russia demands that the #US stop arming #Ukraine

Gets more convoluted every day. Why would the US need to arm Ukraine when it’s just a ‘special military operation’. Surely if there’s no war, then the US doesn’t need to / isn’t arming Ukraine?

And devastating a country, wiping out whole towns and cities, killing 100’s of thousands of civilians, bombing hospitals, raping, torturing, and murdering innocent children and adults. Yet becoming incensed at limited home soil attacks really doesn’t compute. It’s not rational. It’s a psychopath’s response to imagined slights.

Unless, it’s actually cold calculation that the only way to prevent citizen revolt in Russia is looking for any excuse to trigger an escalation of hostilities in Ukraine?

Interesting that they specify the US - feeds into the narrative that this is really a war with them and that they pose a threat to russia. And the narrative that ukraine is being used by the US I guess

#Russia demands that the #US stop arming #Ukraine

When they hand over any and all personnel accused of war crimes after an unconditional ceasefire.

The problem with "demands" (as a very clever person once told me) is they can be matched with equal and opposite demands and moreover they indicate to the other side what is important to you.

Are they "demanding" the UK stops too ?

Igotjelly so great you got to hear from your uni friend and thank you Duncintoffee for the link to normal life returning to Kyiv.

A ray of hope for civilians in Ukraine, who have suffered so horrendously.

This is a good interview with Zelenskyy.

www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/04/zelensky-kyiv-russia-war-ukrainian-survival-interview/629570/

Phillips P OBrien @phillipspobrien
A little example of how much of a blunder. Putin has persuaded two countries with a combined GDP of $810 billion to join NATO. Russia’s GDP is worth $1480 billion (and is contracting).

Plus Sweden is 9th in the world in high tech manufacturing value added and Finland is 17th. Russia under Putin is a majestic 49th. So he has convinced two of the world’s better high tech powers with a combined GDP more than half a large as Russia’s to strengthen NATO. Genius.

Heroes of Mariupol square has a lovely ring to it.

@odesa thank you for telling of your friend’s experiences in Moldova where they went to help refugees and for your suggestion of how to help get food to them through the agency you mentioned.

@Igotojelly
What good news about your friend.

@RedToothBrush

Julia Davis *@juliadavisnews* Kyiv sank 'Moscow' and the Russians are furious. In response to the sinking of the warship 'Moskva,' state TV pundits and hosts propose bombing Kyiv, destroying Ukraine's railways and making it impossible for any world leaders to visit in the future.

The video that goes with this is amusing. They are talking about the Mokcva sinking and go "the fact there has even been an attack on our territory is a casus belli. An absolute cause for war. For real. No fooling around. What are we waging right now? Russia's special military operation. The special military operation has ended! It ended last night when our motherland was attacked."

The host then intervenes to clarify and says" you mean the flagship you mean total mobilization?"

Guest then says" i didn't want to talk about the warship, but you bought it up. Its absolutely a cause for war. There has to be a response but what kind? Russia's special military operation has already turned into what we can easily call WWIII. Thats correct we are fighting against NATO if not NATO, NATOs infrastructure. Against the United States of America. They are 24 / 7 supplying via the railways through Poland. Its definitely not a joke that we should seriously think about destroying the railway junctions. But there is an issue. They keep coming, world leaders. Let them sit at home. We should bomb Kyiv. That should happen. What we are seeing on screen now should never happen"

Now talk about the railways is nothing new. Numerous Western figures have been saying this is WWIII for a while so that isn't anything particularly different.

The idea that Russia should now take it seriously and send in the proper forces to sort it out and declare war on Ukraine is where its actually quite funny in a 'which rock have you been living under for the past 50 days' kind of way. And a 'don't you know that at least a third of your whole standing army has been toasted and you are now resorting to civilian trucks for your logistics' kinda way (Trent Telenko has said he hadn't expected to see evidence of this for another 10 days last night). And all those foreign leaders in Kyiv have obviously struck a nerve.

It does point to a slight issue might...

There is now a clear growing awareness that the special military operation is going tits up and the public is demanding that something is done about it.

In hiding a war, Putin has painted himself into a corner...

But the Ukrainians didn't sink the ship did they?

So they want to go to war with a nation over a flagship they didn't sink......

The doublethink is odd.

But the Ukrainians didn't sink the ship did they?

It appears that not only did they sink it, they made naval history doing it. This being the first time a flagship has been sunk by a country without a navy .

Behind the lines / not behind the lines.

A brief update based on communications with relatives in Ukraine over the last 2 to 3 days.

There's anger and determination. The identities of the raping and murdering Russian soldiers are sometimes known. There is a determination that over time they will be found and killed.

One member of the family unit behind the lines in occupied Kherson oblast has had a previously known health issue go critical. Managed to get to a health facility where there was a staff but little in the way of medicines. The accompanying family member was told they had stress related conditions that were not treatable in the current circumstances. Hardly surprising. [Deliberate vagueness to not identify.]

The Putin plan was to quickly replace the top levels of the government. There's no plan so far as I can pick up to impose rule beyond military occupation and handing out stolen humanitarian aid at the moment in the south. The local Ukrainian civil authorities seem to be muddling along as best they can, with dwindling supplies and finances. I picked up on a comment about a bus going past and was tole 'yes, buses run, our authorities are trying not to slow down people's lives'. The people though are mostly hiding in their cellars.

...told...

The Moskva: damn that was a loved and hyped up ship, ageing though it was. Losing it is a blow, more in terms of collective self esteem than militarily perhaps.

Orthodox Easter is NEXT weekend. It will be interesting to see if there is a pause then.

@DGRossetti

But the Ukrainians didn't sink the ship did they?

It appears that not only did they sink it, they made naval history doing it. This being the first time a flagship has been sunk by a country without a navy .

🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦

@MMBaranova

...told...

The Moskva: damn that was a loved and hyped up ship, ageing though it was. Losing it is a blow, more in terms of collective self esteem than militarily perhaps.

Orthodox Easter is NEXT weekend. It will be interesting to see if there is a pause then.

Apparently it was slated to remain in service till 2040.

Or to put it another way, there are as yet unborn Russians that could have served on it.

I say again ... if Aesop was Russian it wouldn't be the fox and the grapes. It would be the small-willied Putin and the battle cruiser.

Trent Telenko's thoughts for the day seem to be about the skills of Russian soliders and driving.

He links to various tweets from professional drivers who have observed footage of Russian driving heavy vehicles. Their comments are that the Russians are getting into situations which are resolvable but a lack of driving skill is hampering them and that its putting them at risk of effectively being sitting ducks and at risk of unforced accidents.

This point stands out:

Trent Telenko @trenttelenko
Given the low level of automobile ownership in rural Russia.

Odds are The Russian Army is taking conscripts with little/no experience driving & throwing them onto a REM-KL with eight-speed manual transmissions.

"Punch it Chewy" in a manual truck transmission makes the idea of "Operational Attrition" glow like a radium dial at night.

It's not just being tired that sees Russians driving vehicles off bridges.

Low skill plus, no training 'cause fuel theft, plus truck manual transmissions are a recipe for disaster

He also highlights a (long) thread about tanks and how the author thinks Russians are running 2 man not 3 man crews and they are doing it badly.

So theres the commander, the gunner and the driver. The driver role is straightforward. The commander / gunner role is being combined though. The gunner scans for threats and the commander operates radio & makes decisions.

The problem is when a column of tanks comes under fire you cannot do both.

This is also pointed out as good practice for a column of tanks:

Osgud Schlauter @TheTedSon
Tank units act in concert. Since I’ve only seen Russian column formations in Ukraine, I’ll focus on this:

Point tank - scans 10-2 o’clock
Middle tanks - scan alternate sides, either 7-11 or 1-5 o’clock
Rear tank - scans 4-8 o’clock

360 coverage

Yeah all the tank column footage seems to show Russians with all the tanks at 12 as if on military parade.

So if they come under attack they are sitting ducks and are unable to defend themselves before they become toasted.

This seems to be a manpower and training problem. Those pesky ghost soliders on the books.

One point he makes about why changing from the special military operation to war makes a difference is in terms of retention of contract soliders (the ones who are currently all just leaving the army). War means they are unable to do this.

Conscripts dont have any training at all. So the above points about tanks and trucks are worth reflecting on.

I find Trent Telenko's posts informative and though provoking.

with all the tanks at 12 as if on military parade.

I must have watched the May 9 parade on TV / streamed 5 or so times in the last 10-12 years. There's so much rehearsal and so much show. Also who gets to be a guest, is there a theme, where are the banners of the various Fronts from the GPW?

In recent years, have these armed forces had to fight? They stormed into S Ossetia, and temporarily beyond, in 2008. It was a confined area and the conflict did not drag on. They bombed Syria with impunity. They intervened decisively [and unofficially but we know] at Ilovaisk in late August 2014 to defeat the overconfident Ukrainian army, again a short and concentrated unleashing of power. They haven't been faced with an extended ground conflict in this time span. Trent points out how unprepared for it they are.

@RedToothBrush

Russia are claiming this morning that they have bombed the Neptune factory in Kyiv over night.

So they knew where it was, but hadn't bombed it so far because they were too busy bombing civilians?

Any more news on whether the Neptune factory was actually bombed?

Leaving aside the mental gymnastics needed to figure out why the Russians need to bomb a Neptune factory at this point in time if their flagship wasn't actually hit by Ukrainian Neptune missiles.