Ukraine Invasion: Part 20

[HappyWinter]

Thanks to everyone for taking part in the thread.

@RedToothBrush

Russia are claiming this morning that they have bombed the Neptune factory in Kyiv over night.

So they knew where it was, but hadn't bombed it so far because they were too busy bombing civilians?

I wonder how much help UA had with the Neptune homework ? Obviously building the buggers has to be done on site. But I hope the UK if no one else was checking their working. Maybe that's why the Russians detest us now ?

I can't help but think this is the moment for a final push and cutting off that gas and oil trade. With all of Europe working together to mitigate the effects (that's what unions and alliances are for). It may just be that hit them when they are down move.

Sobering to think that if his Muskness wasn't pissing around with Twatter, his $40 billion could give Ukraine a serious boost.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61106245
Ukraine's battle for control of its skies

"We can't cover the whole airspace," Capt Kravchuk says simply.

The fact he is even sitting here speaking to us is somewhat remarkable - especially given the fact that "many air defence facilities were destroyed fully or partially" in the first days of the war.

It's a rare public admission by Ukrainian forces that they suffered significant losses in the early stages of the war.

And

Russia already had a significant advantage in the air, deploying more than three times as many combat aircraft as Ukraine. The US Pentagon says that Russian aircraft have been flying around 250 military missions and carrying out some 30 air strikes every day. Western officials still say that Russia is struggling to gain air superiority.

But in contrast, Ukraine's aging fleet of mostly MiG-29 fighter jets have been struggling to compete, managing at best around 10 military missions a day.

And

But while Capt Kravchuk says his country is grateful for those shoulder launched weapons, known as Manpads [Starstreak and Stingers], he says they're only effective on the frontline.

This is because Manpads - man-portable air defence systems - are most effective against low flying aircraft. Russia is mostly using long range cruise missiles and high-altitude bombing.

Capt Kravchuk told the BBC: "We now lack medium and long range air defence systems... we do not have enough."

And

Ukraine is having to use its air defences not just to target Russian aircraft, but also Russian cruise and ballistic missiles. They are having some success, but they can't destroy everything.

Capt Kravchuk estimates that his unit is shooting down between 50-70% of Russia's longer-range missiles. As an example, he says when Russia fired six missiles around Dnipro recently they managed to stop four.

Purpose of the article

But the harsh fact is that, without more significant support, Ukraine will find it increasingly hard to defend itself from Russian air and missile strikes the longer this war goes on.

Euromaidan Press @euromaidenpress
Russia MoD says scale of missile strikes on "objects" in Kyiv will intensify in response to any "attacks" or "sabotage" on Russian territory - RIA Novosti

Acc to Ukrainian SBU, 14Apr Russia shelled its own settlement of Klymovo in Bryansk & accused Ukraine

Kyiv to be targeted with more missiles and Ukraine claming Klymovo was a false flag.

Interesting.

Just heard from a dear uni friend that she’s alive and well and still at home in Kharkiv. First time hearing from her in almost 3 weeks and could have cried to get the message 😭.

Euromaidan Press @euromaidenpress
Russia's special services have started carrying out terrorist attacks throughout Russia to accuse Ukraine of them and "promote anti-ukraine hysteria.

As of Apr 14, several ‘terr attacks’ on Russian border were already reported, e.g. in Kursk region"– Ukrainian State CounterDisinform Centre

@RedToothBrush

Oliver Alexander *@oalexanderDK* When you state destroyed tanks and other vehicles in far greater numbers than the Ukrainian military have in service, it might be a sign your "Special Military Operation" is not going great.

TASS @tassagency_en
Russian troops destroy 456 drones, 2,213 tanks in Ukraine special operation, Russian Defense Ministry Spokesman Major-General Igor Konashenkov said.

Are they including the Russian tanks the Ukrainians captured and took over in that total?

@Igotjelly

Just heard from a dear uni friend that she’s alive and well and still at home in Kharkiv. First time hearing from her in almost 3 weeks and could have cried to get the message 😭.

That's lovely to hear Igotjelly

TASS @tassagency*_en
Russian troops destroy 456 drones, 2,213 tanks in Ukraine special operation, Russian Defense Ministry Spokesman Major-General Igor Konashenkov said.*

They forgot to add that they were all Russian...

Igotjelly that's lovely

This is getting a fair amount of reaction

Mike Eckel @mike_eckel
"The Russian military may feel it is just warming up. If Syria is any guide, Russia may seek to wage this war for years."
www.csis.org/analysis/ukraine-war-isnt-sprint
The Ukraine War Isn’t a Sprint

For those wondering; this is NOT my analysis and per usual, tweets/retweets =/= endorsements

Rob Lee @RALee55
Russia sustained more KIA in the first 2-3 days in Ukraine than it has in 6 years in Syria. Russia also committed >75% of its permanent readiness BTGs to Ukraine, and never deployed such a large share to Syria. The level of attrition and forces committed isn't sustainable.

That doesn't mean the war is about to end, but the Russian military is stretched and is in a poor position to respond to other crises or threats. We're probably talking about weeks or months and not years. 2/

Jimmy @jimmysecuk
The Russian involvement in Syria was sustainable because Russian losses were very, very low (around 140 regulars since 2015). This is not the case in Ukraine - their losses in men, materiel and the damage their economy is taking is simply unsustainable in the long term.

Extreme Moderate @mpls1701
Is there any indication of when sanctions and military consiquences are going to start to really change the calculus? I asumed it would be years. No?

Jimmy @jimmysecuk
Sanctions have already halted production of advanced military equipment and they'll knock around 10% of Russian GDP this year

It's a blow if the Russians have blown up the Vizar plant :(

Bigger worry is the whole false-flag thing though, which will whip up Russian fury and make the whole thing worse.

God. FUCK Putin.

Marqs @marqs_
^#Russia demands that the #US stop arming #Ukraine, threatening "unpredictable consequences" - The Washington Post, citing an official diplomatic note from #Moscow
via @GazetaRu^

That is the sound of Moscow realising they are losing.

Reuters
Ukrainians stood in line at Kyiv's main post office to buy postage stamps depicting a Ukrainian soldier making a crude gesture in front of a Russian warship

A bit of counter programming for you. Kyiv is coming back to life. People are out. The sun is shining. Kids playing. Short thread from my walkabout yesterday 1/
twitter.com/shustry/status/1514922693639999496?t=JLQkD22roTR7OStmwr8upw&s=19

@RedToothBrush

Russia are claiming this morning that they have bombed the Neptune factory in Kyiv over night.

So they knew where it was, but hadn't bombed it so far because they were too busy bombing civilians?

They wanted the factory for if they won? It doesn't bear thinking about, bombing civilians rather than miltary targets.

@Igotjelly I'm glad you have heard from your friend and she is ok.

@Igotjelly

Just heard from a dear uni friend that she’s alive and well and still at home in Kharkiv. First time hearing from her in almost 3 weeks and could have cried to get the message 😭.

That must have been such a relief to hear from her, glad she's ok.

They wanted the factory for if they won? I

urk .. right, that'd be it :s Suppose we'll see more of that, bombing the useful industrial things they wanted to take over. Which points out, as RTB said, that it was a deliberate decision to bomb the civilians instead ..

NY Times
"The loss of the Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet flagship will make it more difficult to gain full control over Ukraine’s southern coast and ultimately move on the port city of Odesa, military analysts say". So not just a morale boost

www.politico.eu/article/berlin-bickers-over-tanks-for-ukraine-amid-warnings-that-west-could-become-target/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=social
Germany’s Habeck warns tank deliveries to Ukraine could turn West into Russian ‘target’

Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck said such decisions should be made together by NATO allies, as his government tussles over whether to move unilaterally.

Looks like the German Green party who are part of the German coalition are freaking out about heavy weapoons being supplied to Ukraine.

This difference of opinion in the German government is interesting to see.

Germany’s Habeck warns tank deliveries to Ukraine could turn West into Russian ‘target’

Is his nickname "dim" in German.

We fucking are a Russian target you idiot.

But the harsh fact is that, without more significant support, Ukraine will find it increasingly hard to defend itself from Russian air and missile strikes the longer this war goes on.

Sadly this is where the military industrial complex we were warned about (well in my case, my parents were warned about) starts to ramp up. Given the capabilities of Starstreak we are allowed to know about, there must be some pretty scary stuff in the wings waiting to be tested.

Robert Smith @BondHack
Why did the UK sanction Roman Abramovich's close associates Eugene Tenenbaum and David Davidovich?

Here's a thread on the flurry of asset transfers initiated the very day Putin sent troops into Ukraine, which @SamuelAgini and I were marvelling at yday...

London stock exchange filings show that on February 24, the day Russian tanks crossed the border into Ukraine, Eugene Tenenbaum took over Cyprus-based Ervington Investments from BVI-based Norma Investments.

^How do we that Norma is an Abramovich vehicle? Well aside from it being an anagram of Roman, the oligarch's spokesperson Rola Brentlin helpfully confirmed "Mr Abramovich is the beneficiary" in a now deleted tweet attacking Putin's People author @CatherineBelton
's reporting^

Tenenbaum gave this statement to Reuters last month, explaining he purchased Ervington just because he happened to "know the company's investments and employees well"!

Note that he also said that Abramovich's family were "previously" the beneficiaries....

That's because on the exact same day control of Norma Investments passed to another Abramovich associate, David Davidovich!

But this is where it gets even more baroque: at the end of March, Tenenbaum sells Ervington back to Norma, which is now under the control of Davidovich!

So Eugene's great "opportunity to continue to work" with Ervington lasted all of a month!

Anyway, it'll be fascinating to see what exactly has come under the £10bn asset freezing order, given it's a number higher than many estimates of Abramovich's net worth.

Imagine there will be some overlap with the $7bn number in Jersey...

@Ijsbear

They wanted the factory for if they won? I

urk .. right, that'd be it :s Suppose we'll see more of that, bombing the useful industrial things they wanted to take over. Which points out, as RTB said, that it was a deliberate decision to bomb the civilians instead ..

The Russians have made a LOT of decisions to target civilians rather than strategic military targets. The shift only happen post withdrawal. Up to then there were surprisingly few attempts to target anything to do with logistics.

I don't think you can argue that they thought about it to protect things they wanted to keep, because they weren't even considering fuel depo until at least a week after the withdrawal - these are something that I'd argue don't have the same value as a factory but would hamper the ukrainian army as a whole.

Interestingly:

Kevin Rothrock @KevinRothrock
All schadenfreude aside, this rhetoric (plus MoD claims about Ukrainian attacks against Russian settlements) is beginning to sound like Moscow is considering an official war against Ukraine, which would allow the Kremlin to draw on more resources.

However there is something of a counter argument that theres not much extra this opens up to the Kremlin in reality.

...it might be getting politically harder to hide a war when you've got 20000 dead and a lost flagship, even for the Kremlin though.

Strikes me as if people are starting to question the special military operation line

@DuncinToffee

NY Times "The loss of the Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet flagship will make it more difficult to gain full control over Ukraine’s southern coast and ultimately move on the port city of Odesa, military analysts say". So not just a morale boost

The question really is, do the Russian Navy's command believe that it sank due to an ammo explosion, in which case they will continue with the same tactics and put other ships at risk (see for instance putting helicopters repeatedly on the pan at Kherson airport for them to be destroyed) or will they change tactics and keep their ships further offshore?