Ukraine Invasion: Part 20

[HappyWinter]

Thanks to everyone for taking part in the thread.

@katem98 I’m in the same boat and I don’t even have kids! I think it’s a hard situation as there are a lot of unknowns and obviously the unknown is a huge trigger of the anxiety. All I want is a guarantee this won’t end up in a nuclear war (don’t go on Twitter to try and find reassurance for this because it will terrify you). I had an emergency session with my cbt therapist at the start of the war because it basically paralysed me with fear, I was annoyed that she wasn’t able to provide me with any reassurance - she basically said yes this is a scary situation. Her advice to me was to limit news intake and just try to carry on life as normal, living in the moment. I asked her when I was allowed to panic and she said she would say there’s never a time that panic serves a good purpose because it won’t change anything. I perked up a bit when the peace talks in Istanbul seemed more promising and Russia said it was changing its focus to the east. But then bucha and the alleged chemical weapons came to light, partygate, Finland and Sweden Joining nato and now this huge arms shipment from USA has sent me back to panic stations so I’m not doing very well at heeding my own advice! I want to think that nobody wants WW3 or nuclear war and I can rationalise to some extent but it is still scary. I think it’s okay to be scared though. These threads have been hugely helpful for me instead of reading the news as they provide such comprehensive intepretations and different perspectives. Sorry that was a bit waffly but just wanted you to know you’re not alone in your anxiety, we have to just sit tight and hope that things will be ok (as silly as that seems). I personally wish that hayfever was my only impending concern right now.

^Tim White
@TWMCLtd
·
4h
Assets believed to be worth almost half of Roman Abramovich's total wealth have been frozen in #Jersey.

Bloomberg reckons $7bn has been tied up.

Still got a hell of a lot of money to play with, even assuming more has been made inaccessible by sanctions. Wonder what he's up to at the moment.

Share prices, 12 month change:

Thales +45%
Northrop Grumman +34%
Raytheon +32%
Lockheed +20%
Chemring +25%
Gen Dynamics +32%
Etc....

Some of the highest multiples of value to profits in the private sector have been cyber secs companies over the last five years. Good sectors to be in and great job security for those planning higher education.

All I want is a guarantee this won’t end up in a nuclear war ...

With respect, that is one hell of a really big want.

There may be state of the art weapons coming from the US, I hope. But if they are that advanced, wouldn't only US be trained to operate them? Would US military end up on Ukraine soil?

Cannot possibly answer this question.

I'm feeling more hopeful tonight. Somethings in the air....

The flagship on fire, the joint of troops in Mariupol...

[quote YorkshireLondonMiss]@katem98 I’m in the same boat and I don’t even have kids! I think it’s a hard situation as there are a lot of unknowns and obviously the unknown is a huge trigger of the anxiety. All I want is a guarantee this won’t end up in a nuclear war (don’t go on Twitter to try and find reassurance for this because it will terrify you). I had an emergency session with my cbt therapist at the start of the war because it basically paralysed me with fear, I was annoyed that she wasn’t able to provide me with any reassurance - she basically said yes this is a scary situation. Her advice to me was to limit news intake and just try to carry on life as normal, living in the moment. I asked her when I was allowed to panic and she said she would say there’s never a time that panic serves a good purpose because it won’t change anything. I perked up a bit when the peace talks in Istanbul seemed more promising and Russia said it was changing its focus to the east. But then bucha and the alleged chemical weapons came to light, partygate, Finland and Sweden Joining nato and now this huge arms shipment from USA has sent me back to panic stations so I’m not doing very well at heeding my own advice! I want to think that nobody wants WW3 or nuclear war and I can rationalise to some extent but it is still scary. I think it’s okay to be scared though. These threads have been hugely helpful for me instead of reading the news as they provide such comprehensive intepretations and different perspectives. Sorry that was a bit waffly but just wanted you to know you’re not alone in your anxiety, we have to just sit tight and hope that things will be ok (as silly as that seems). I personally wish that hayfever was my only impending concern right now.[/quote]
Thank you so much. I'm able to rationalise at times and others I just feel completely numb, that's the best way to describe it I think. It's nice to know the feeling is rather mutual, I find this thread incredibly helpful

@Ijsbear well exactly! Just had this conversation with my fiancé and he was like you can’t guarantee you won’t be hit by a bus tomorrow. He’s one of those people who fundamentally doesn’t worry about what isn’t in his control…I envy him 😂

No one can guarantee that this won’t end up on nuclear war. It’s an impossible want I’m sorry to say. All we can do is hope it won’t. And we all do hope it won’t. I’m avoiding dwelling on the nuclear aspect. Reassured by the fact that traditional war fare, chemical weapons, tactical nuclear weapons will all come from putin before ranged nuclear weapons. By my estimation (for all its worth) we are nowhere near the use of MAD weapons. I however am not pootin and I have no clue how he is thinking or what would be needed for launch of MAD weapons. I think its a lot less likely bombs would drop on London anytime soon than I thought it was at the start of this war. I suspect if he can fire long range bikes at us that we wouldn’t have time to shoot down before they hit then the same is true for non nuke missiles and I think I’d expect non nuke missiles aimed at us first. But again my opinions and thoughts are meaningless, I have no experience or knowledge to know if I’m right to be thinking that or if it’s just wishful thinking.

We are at war, it is scary but I’d 100% prefer to be here than in Ukraine, or Moldova, or some of the other countries at risk. Focusing on the risk of nukes hitting me is not helpful, in fact panicking about it would fuck my daily life up and I’d rather keep going while praying for the Ukrainians, wishing the war would end now and saying thank you to the powers that be that I ONLY have to watch/read about the horrors being inflicted in Ukraine.

@Onceuponatimeinalandfaraway Thank you - sorry I’ve dragged us down the whatif nuclear war path, things just feel like they’ve ramped up today for me! I completely agree we should count our blessings that we are not in Ukraine itself. You’re right re not fucking your life up by focussing too much on where it could end up, I’ve certainly ended up in not as good a mental health space from doing this (and look like a crazy woman being jumpy whenever a plane flies over 😂)

One thing that does occur looking at all the photos of fires is that this war is terrible for the environment. Not the most pressing issue but it's not non e instant either.

Existent*

Let's just say Putin cannot by himself launch a nuclear weapon capable of MAD. He needs others to execute the order. What if he is mad enough to want to launch it. His underlings don't want to die. His underlings don't want their families and loved ones to die. They particularly don't want to die for a has-been failed in war delusional despot who cares nothing for them.

There are no guarantees of course, but I am putting aside any residual fears and rooting for Ukraine all out.

We are not experiencing even a minute fraction of the suffering of the people of Ukraine. What is the point of living in fear. Live in hope. Fight for freedom and truth and what is right. Would I rather die in a underground torture chamber during Russian occupation or run to freedom and die in the open during a missile strike. I know which one I'd choose. Sorry but these are the stark choices nobody should be asked to make. We cannot ask that of Ukraine so that it reduces the small odds of a nuclear war.

english.alarabiya.net/News/world/2022/04/13/Russia-warns-West-against-Bosnia-destabilization-
Russia warns West against Bosnia ‘destabilization’

Keep an eye on this....

Big bang Chornobaivka

It is right to be cautious about not triggering a nuclear war.

But as this war grinds on and the West sees the Potemkin village of Mr Putin's army for what it is and how he has scaled back on nuke sabre-rattling and failed to strike where we expect him to and is basically shown to be a bit useless at war but still has not scaled back on ambitions to retake former Soviet territory, but continuing to inflict organised and targeted atrocities and genocide on civilians, I think the West is at the point of calling his bluff.

OSINTdefender @sentdefender
There continues to be Claims by Ukrainian Regional/Military Officials that the Slava-Class Cruiser “Moskva” Flag-Ship of the Russian Black Sea’s Fleet was Struck by 2 Ukrainian Navy fired Neptune Anti-Ship Missiles off the Coast of Odessa and is Actively Sinking with 500+ aboard.

Again these are only Claims thus far with nothing yet Confirmed, but Evidence seems to be mounting that some kind of Russian Ship is indeed taking water and in distress off the Coast of Odessa, as Distress Signals appear to have been Intercepted from the Vessel.

We so far have not seen the usage by the Ukrainian Navy of the Neptune Anti-Ship Missiles most likely due to the Extremely Small Stockpile of Missiles that they do have, but the Flag-Ship of the Black Sea’s Fleet would be the Perfect Target.

@blueshoes

It is right to be cautious about not triggering a nuclear war.

But as this war grinds on and the West sees the Potemkin village of Mr Putin's army for what it is and how he has scaled back on nuke sabre-rattling and failed to strike where we expect him to and is basically shown to be a bit useless at war but still has not scaled back on ambitions to retake former Soviet territory, but continuing to inflict organised and targeted atrocities and genocide on civilians, I think the West is at the point of calling his bluff.

Couldn't agree more. We absolutely need to stop him once and for all.

Seems to be lots of twitter noise:

OSINT-1988 @OSINT88
MOSKVA - Currently sending multiple distress and sinking messages via morse and cipher.

Burn Baby Burn, Warship Inferno!

@RedToothBrush

Seems to be lots of twitter noise:

OSINT-1988 @OSINT88
MOSKVA - Currently sending multiple distress and sinking messages via morse and cipher.

Burn Baby Burn, Warship Inferno!

Well there were new weapons to test.

@PestorPeston

Big bang Chornobaivka

Any news on this blast. Looks ugly.

I had to google Chornobaivka.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Telegram on 20 March 2022:

"Ukrainian Chornobaivka will go down in war history. This is a place where the Russian military and their commanders have shown themselves for who they truly are - incompetent, capable of simply handing over their people for slaughter.

Our military has annihilated the invaders near Chornobaivka six times. Six times, yet they keep coming back."

I hope the blast is not Russia's usual long range revenge.

Six times? Its way more than that.

Twitter is saying if its the Ukrainians again, that would be the 14th or 15th time!

That could be Ukraine's blast, not Russia's? Wow, if that were true it was Ukraine blasting the Russians out of their positions, them Ukrainians have got some fancy new kit.

Hoping this is true but as usual expecting the worst.

Oh hello....

Trent Telenko @TrentTelenko
Why nailing Moskva was vital to the Ukrainian airpower in the South & Black Sea.

Via DM:
"She carries 64 S-300's, she's basically a massive area denial asset for Ukrainian aviation in the south. If she's down, they're going to swarm that front with air support."

This strike was battlefield preparation for the pending Ukrainian push out of Kherson.

Ukrainian TB2 can now roam to the Black Sea Coast into Crimea like they did when they nailed the 60-car Russian Fuel train.

Crimea's Western sea-air flank is now wide open.

Everyone give Jason Lancaster's article over at Cimsec a close look 'cause he called this Ukrainian Neptune cruise missile shot yesterday.

He earned his day in the sun today as an analyst as much as Ukraine has earned a blood price from Russia
cimsec.org/an-anti-access-denial-strategy-for-ukraine/

ooooo look, the above article is interesting. Think this para is of interest:

Many countries including Ukraine produce anti-ship cruise missiles. Ukraine produces the RK-360 Neptune anti-ship cruise missile. The Neptune is a derivative of the SS-N-25 Switchblade, also known as the “Harpoonski,” which supposedly became operational in 2021.10 It has an operational range of about 170NM. Most of the Black Sea Fleet is vulnerable to the Neptune, which is capable of sinking ships up to 5,000 tons. Despite the missile being in service, there have been no media reports of its use in the war.

And there's another REALLY big blast at Chornobaivka, you say? Thats the airport. Well if that's the Ukrainians...

....see Trent's tweet about Kherson above.

@RedToothBrush

Oh hello....

Trent Telenko @TrentTelenko
Why nailing Moskva was vital to the Ukrainian airpower in the South & Black Sea.

Via DM:
"She carries 64 S-300's, she's basically a massive area denial asset for Ukrainian aviation in the south. If she's down, they're going to swarm that front with air support."

This strike was battlefield preparation for the pending Ukrainian push out of Kherson.

Ukrainian TB2 can now roam to the Black Sea Coast into Crimea like they did when they nailed the 60-car Russian Fuel train.

Crimea's Western sea-air flank is now wide open.

Everyone give Jason Lancaster's article over at Cimsec a close look 'cause he called this Ukrainian Neptune cruise missile shot yesterday.

He earned his day in the sun today as an analyst as much as Ukraine has earned a blood price from Russia
cimsec.org/an-anti-access-denial-strategy-for-ukraine/

ooooo look, the above article is interesting. Think this para is of interest:

Many countries including Ukraine produce anti-ship cruise missiles. Ukraine produces the RK-360 Neptune anti-ship cruise missile. The Neptune is a derivative of the SS-N-25 Switchblade, also known as the “Harpoonski,” which supposedly became operational in 2021.10 It has an operational range of about 170NM. Most of the Black Sea Fleet is vulnerable to the Neptune, which is capable of sinking ships up to 5,000 tons. Despite the missile being in service, there have been no media reports of its use in the war.

And there's another REALLY big blast at Chornobaivka, you say? Thats the airport. Well if that's the Ukrainians...

....see Trent's tweet about Kherson above.

hello