Ukraine Invasion: Part 20

[HappyWinter]

Thanks to everyone for taking part in the thread.

Osintdefender @sentdefender
There are Unconfirmed reports that Rail Networks across Poland and other Eastern European Countries in the last week or so have begun to experience Significant Delays due to the High Volume of NATO Military Equipment heading East towards The Baltics and the Ukrainian Border.

This is to be expected due to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine and NATO beginning to bolster defenses on the Eastern Front in preparation for possible Escalation in the East, but Delays seems to be increasing possibly due to Military Equipment being given to Ukraine now included.

Needs to be put into context with Russia now saying arms convoys are a legitimate target.

And lots of cool photo ops from VIP arriving by train...

@RedToothBrush

From 36 mins ago

Ukraine war Report @ukrwarreport
Commanders of Azov and 36th marine brigade claim their forces have managed to break the encirclement of the 36th in Mariupol and have now opened communication with Azov.

With video of the two commanders sat next to each other. So looks pretty convincing and legit to me.

I guess the Azov have some food and munitions left.

Please let this be true 🙏

Putin and his forces seem to be using Nazi-studies as a manual, not a warning, so it wouldn't be surprising if his deportations of Ukrainian civilians is for the same reason.

Nazi Germany created one of the largest forced labor systems in history: Over twenty million foreign civilian workers, concentration camp prisoners and prisoners of war from all of the occupied countries were required to perform forced labor in Germany in the course of the Second World War.

At the height of the so-called “Ausländereinsatz” (use of foreigners) in August 1944, six million civilians were forced to perform forced labor in the German Reich, most of them from Poland and the Soviet Union. Over one third were women, some of whom were abducted together with their children or gave birth to their children in the camps. In 1944, nearly two million prisoners of war were exploited to work in the German economy. From 1943, German industry also increasingly used concentration camp detainees as a source of forced labor.

www.zwangsarbeit-archiv.de/en/zwangsarbeit/zwangsarbeit/zwangsarbeit-hintergrund/index.html

@PestorPeston

I an assuming that Macron will be turning up in Ukraine between rounds.

Otherwise France has the choice of a President who speaks to Putin vs one who is funded by Putin.

I'm actually not quite sure how well Macron actually going to Ukraine in person would play here in France.

As I see it he (Macron) lost a lot ground domestically in the last month or so by appearing to concentrate on international affairs (the EU Presidency hasn't helped him) and seemingly ignoring domestic matters such as cost of living and pension reform .. LePen has taken full advantage of that and some missteps by other candidates to come back from the poor position she was in not long ago..

@PestorPeston

In Mariupol, units of the 36th Marine Brigade made complex maneuvers to break through and joined the Azov Bataillon. As a result, Azov received significant reinforcements, the Marines escaped defeat in parts and received additional opportunities — Oleksiy Arestovych

Another one praying this is true.

It was still vital Macron tried for peace, even if he failed.

Keeping comms open with Russia will be required if or when there are meaningful talks and this war ends... which it surely must, unless Russia is completely defeated but that will bring its own different problems.

Apparently pundits on Russian state television have claimed Pancake Day in the UK was cancelled because Pancake Day is a Russian tradition and we're all Russophobic now. I expect the Foreign Office, MoD and MI6 never saw that one coming, I'll give them that.

That's worth a giggle Esma!

@Igotjelly ah that makes more sense thank you. I kind of think they’re right in that’s “legitimate”. I’m feeling particularly stressed today it just feels like the world is falling apart! Topped off by a stressful experience on the tube home where a guy decided to pull a big knife out his back pack and then put it back 🤦🏽‍♀️ I was thinking if that gives me the collywobbles I’d be useless as a Ukrainian citizen.

@EsmaCannonball

Apparently pundits on Russian state television have claimed Pancake Day in the UK was cancelled because Pancake Day is a Russian tradition and we're all Russophobic now. I expect the Foreign Office, MoD and MI6 never saw that one coming, I'll give them that.

Honestly, if it wasn’t so pathetic it would be laughable.

@EsmaCannonball lol I can confirm I definitely celebrated pancake day in excess!!

We made enormous pancakes

Some interesting titbits from various feeds:

Trent Telenko @TrentTelenko
It looks like the US DoD is taking the Russian CW attack in Mariupol seriously.

It's providing CBRN suits to Ukraine.

CBRN suits are "chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear protective suits".

Why the word Genocide might be significant:

Trent Telenko @TrentTelenko
Pres. Biden's use the term genocide regarding Ukraine today may signify a shift in US policy & a loosening of the hold of the De-escalation faction in DC.

The media reported late last year Biden had yielded to his advisors who objected to his intent to escalate against Russia.

Pres. Biden may have decided the advice he was getting from the De-escalation faction was pile of shit after all.

It is the delivery of the "NATO 55" Mig-29's which will mark a fundamental shift in US policy toward Ukraine & Russia to match Biden's rhetoric.

Jack Detsch @JackDetsch (2hrs)
JUST IN: President Biden announces $800 million MORE in U.S. military aid to Ukraine after a call with Zelensky.

The U.S. will provide artillery systems, armored personnel carriers, and additional helicopters to Ukraine. The Pentagon hasn’t given these systems to Ukraine before.

Biden: “The Ukrainian military has used the weapons we are providing to devastating effect.”

Zelensky asked for tanks, air defenses, artillery, APCs, military aircraft, air defenses & MLRS in a taped message today.

He goes 2 for 6, with Europe perhaps providing other weapons.

Jack Detsch @JackDetsch
New: Zelensky just outlined a long wish list for weapons from the West:

• Russian T-72 Tanks
• Russian made S-300 / Buk air defenses or Western equivalents^
• Russian-made Multiple Launch Rocket Systems OR US-made HIMARS
• Military aircraft
• 155mm artillery & 152mm shells
• APCs, IFVs

Zelensky didn't really order these in terms of priority, but put an emphasis on military aircraft, in an effort to unblock surrounded Ukrainian cities, such as Mariupol.

The Ukrainian president also asked for as many artillery shells "as possible" for coming Donbas fight.

And get this. Ukraine have upgraded Amazon Prime Delivery from Standard Delivery:

Jack Detsch @JackDetsch
Senior U.S. defense official: "Time is of the essence" on U.S. and European weapons deliveries to Ukraine.

U.S. has been getting weapons to the battlefield in Ukraine within 48 hours, the official said.

Meanwhile, Russian operations are slowing as troops reset for the fight in Donbas.

Russia launched 150 air sorties in the past 24 hr, the senior U.S. defense official said, down from a pace of ~200 a day in recent weeks.

Russian airstrikes down to 32 per day.

Trent Telenko made a point that an army is seldom better than the society it comes from, then retweeted this:

Ted Chan @upwardmobility
For me, a big indicator is the quality of Ukrainian data analysts and software engineers. You learn a lot about it using @upwork. That skill set has been rapidly emigrating and waning in Russia.

Watcher Zero @watcher_zero
The Pentagon is summoning the 8 largest US Arms manufacturers to tell them to discuss moving to a wartime production rate (i.e. outsourcing production, using spare capacity at one firm to help produce equipment for anothers order, etc..)
www.reuters.com/world/pentagon-asks-top-8-us-arms-makers-meet-ukraine-sources-2022-04-12/

Jack Detsch @JackDetsch
Russia is still moving troops into position for the Donbas fight, cycling units through Belarus & Western Russia

Russia has moved troops to 3 staging areas on Ukraine border.

Russia trying to get more mobile to cut off Ukrainian troops, including by building temporary bridges.

The U.S. believes the mood in the Russian ranks is NOT improving, with new intelligence reports of poor morale even at the officer level, despite Putin's naming of a top Russian field commander in Ukraine.

Russia has had high levels of generals killed, too.

Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien
The reality of redeploying a defeated and exhausted army is now becoming apparent to those who talked about the Russians redeploying their Kyiv forces to the Donbas. It’s now been a week since Russian forces were almost all out of Kyiv and Chernihiv.

Where are those forces now. Well best intelligence has them on their way from their withdrawal points to around Belgorod, in Russia, for rest and refit. In the US DOD briefing two days ago it was stated that these forces were still on their way.^

@TheStudyofWar update last night still has these forces in this rest refit mode.

And there are these persistent reports that Russian forces are finding ways to avoid going back to Ukraine.

Add this to the fact that these forces, if they can be rested refitted, will need a significant period to deploy into Ukraine, as the road system is still working against them.

The Russians seem to be stuck by this slow motion redeploy. They are continuing their low level attacks in the Donbas. But with not enough forces to press ahead a lot, but unsure when they can receive major reinforcement. They are suffering regular attritional losses. (See ISW).

At the same time they are struggling in the air.

Long story short; those who talked about both the Russian Army now fighting smart according to their excellent doctrine and somehow making major gains by May 9 are looking decidedly ‘optimistic’ by Russian standards.

What it actually is looking at is Russia suffering a constant drip, drip of losses, making small gains, and instead of building up massive force for one effort, feeding forces more slowly over a poor road network. All without air dominance.

So people need to be very careful before taking about a major, large and powerful Russian offensive kicking off soon.

A picture of a bunched up convoy on the way to Donbas. No longer spread out as in pictures a few days ago, looks like a little traffic jam.

And the location puts it on a really minor road.

Another picture of a Russian convoy moving towards Izyum, though not 'at a breakneck' speed--to put it kindly. The Kyiv forces after resting and being resupplied are still a long way from reaching battle.

ISW @TheStudyofWar
#Russian forces will likely continue ongoing offensive operations in the #Donbas region, feeding reinforcements into the fight as they become available rather than gathering reinforcements and replacements for a more coordinated and coherent offensive.

Phillips P. OBrien @PhillipsPOBrien
If this is actually what Russia ends up doing; they are strategically bankrupt and haven’t learned a thing. Just drip feeding forces as they become available is a recipe for Russian failure.

Steve Herman
@W7VOA
·
11m
Eleven MI-17 helicopters being transferred to #Ukraine, in addition to five previously sent by the US, confirms @PentagonPresSec

Can I ask (sorry if this has been addressed previously and I’ve missed it) are we just ignoring now that the supply of migs by anyone (don’t know if helicopters are included) would be seen as their direct involvement in the conflict by Russia?

Emma Burrows @EJ_Burrows
Biden says Putin has committed genocide in Ukraine. A senior Russian lawmaker just told @itvnews this ‘cannot be,’ because if Russia had committed such crimes, it would have done a better job at covering up the evidence. ‘No one would have left [corpses] there,’ Alexey Chepa said

Chepa is Deputy Chairman of Russian State Duma Committee on International Affairs. He told @itvnews ‘even if this [war crimes] had happened’ Russian forces would have taken the ‘corpses [of Ukrainian civilians] and put them in a van with no difficulty’ to hide the evidence.

Chepa, a senior Russian parliamentarian said ‘there is no logic’ to accusing Russia of genocide in Ukraine. Pyotr Tolstoy, Deputy Chairman of the Russian State Duma also told @itvnews ‘for Biden and others to call what is going on in Ukraine genocide is a lie.’

Deputy Chairman of the Russian Parliament Pyotr Tolstoy told me today, ‘Ukraine was never an independent country…Ukraine is a part of Russia and Ukrainians are the same kind of Russians as us but they speak in a slightly different language.’

Jimmy @JimmySecUK
A list of the equipment the US is providing to Ukraine as part of their $800 million military assistance package.

Of particular note, 18 155mm howitzers, 11 Mi-17 transport helicopters, 200 M113 armoured personnel carriers, 300 Switchblade loitering munitions.

I'm also very interested to see what exactly they mean by "unmanned coastal defence vessels".

@YorkshireLondonMiss

Can I ask (sorry if this has been addressed previously and I’ve missed it) are we just ignoring now that the supply of migs by anyone (don’t know if helicopters are included) would be seen as their direct involvement in the conflict by Russia?

I had forgotten or missed that. But then, given that 5 words out of 6 are deceptive by Russia, who knows if they mean it.

But I think that given the horror of what's gone on in the freed areas plus the thought of what the occupied areas are going through, it may be that the risk of escalation is worth taking.

Personally I think that it's become very clear that if you don't stand up to Russia, it'll try to bulldoze you into the mud.

@RedToothBrush

Zarina Zabrisky *@ZarinaZabrisky* Russia: News from #Mordor. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov: transportation delivering weapons to Ukraine is "legitimate military targets for the Russian Federation."

That's ominous. I am working on the assumption they are targeting transportation once its IN Ukraine, rather than en-route?

Otherwise we will end up with a clusterfuck of biblical proportions.

@YorkshireLondonMiss

Can I ask (sorry if this has been addressed previously and I’ve missed it) are we just ignoring now that the supply of migs by anyone (don’t know if helicopters are included) would be seen as their direct involvement in the conflict by Russia?

See tweet mentioned above about Biden and the word genocide.

Up to now it seems Biden was listening to a particular group of his advisors who were persuing a de-escalation idea to try and stop Russia from escalating.

The problem is that if Russia are carrying out genocide, then you can hardly say that de-escalation as a strategy is really being effective.

So either Biden is now taking the advice of a different section of his advisers who advocate a larger amount of intervention more seriously than previously, or there has been a shift in though from his de-escalation advisors.

Whats happening on the ground in terms of Russian weakness and Ukrainian success as well as the atrocities may well be a factor in this. What has been sent to Ukraine has slowly pushed the threats that Russia has made but there's been no response (largely because Russia probably doesn't have the capacity to follow through). So Biden is no longer taking these threats as seriously.

There may also be a calculation that there really isn't anything that will stop Putin from escalating if he wants to, so you might as well just get the fuck on with helping Ukraine. If he's gonna do it, he's gonna do it - it doesn't matter what option the West take...

Jack Detsch
@JackDetsch
· 3h
Senior U.S. defense official: "Time is of the essence" on U.S. and European weapons deliveries to Ukraine.

U.S. has been getting weapons to the battlefield in Ukraine within 48 hours, the official said.

Perhaps things are ratchetting up to support Ukraine in the Donbas region. Though it must take some time to get from West to East, given how big Ukraine is

RedToothBrush: There may also be a calculation that there really isn't anything that will stop Putin from escalating if he wants to, so you might as well just get the fuck on with helping Ukraine. If he's gonna do it, he's gonna do it - it doesn't matter what option the West take...

That is true. The West has nothing to lose that they would not lose anyway. So Damn the Torpedoes ...

@RedToothBrush thank you that makes sense. When we are talking about de-escalation I assume we mean in the sense of what Russia is doing within Ukraine rather than escalation to the conflict spreading elsewhere? In terms of Ukraine I can see how genocide and alleged chemical weapons, short of using tactical nukes really can’t get much worse. And arguably using a tactical nuke is really worse in a sense that it would break that nuclear taboo and be a step towards that aspect of escalation that everyone is terrified of. But from the Ukrainians perspective, the Russians are still committing despicable activities conventionally regardless of whether that line is crossed.

I suppose my anxiety takes me back to this spreading elsewhere/yes escalating to some sort of nuclear apocalypse but that’s me being cowardly and admittedly selfish I suppose.

That's ominous. I am working on the assumption they are targeting transportation once its IN Ukraine, rather than en-route?

The analysis over the last week has largely been that in the absence of men until June due to conscription/contract solider issues and the time to regroup from the exit in the north Russia has a limited number of options.

If Ukraine is using the time to get in supplies and weapons, its the most obvious and necessary thing for the Russians to do.

Indeed, arguably there should be huge surprise that they aren't ALREADY doing it. Its a basic principle of war to target the logistics. They should have been doing from the very beginning. Its a basic principle of war to go for the logistics.

Certainly we know that the Ukrainians have been trying to do this for... checks notes... 48 days.

As I said above, those photo ops in Kyiv will have struck a nerve too. They are something that Putin WILL know about even if he's getting glowing progress reports from his minions. Putin will indeed have had a Downfall Moment over Johnson going for a walk in Kyiv. Great PR stunt that Putin will have HATED. They shouldn't be happening from Putin's POV.