Ukraine Invasion: Part 19

[MagicFox]

Welcome friends, still going

Jack Detsch @jackdetsch
NEW: Russia is sending an 8-mi long convoy of 100s of vehicles, including armored vehicles and artillery southbound through the Ukrainian town of Velykyi Burluk.

The convoy is moving about 60 mi east of Ukraine’s 2nd-largest city of Kharkiv, as 🇷🇺 focuses on Donbas.

Phillips P OBrien @phillipspobrien
What one picture might be able to tell us about the upcoming Russian attempt to 'fix' the Donbas. This was tweeted by @JackDetsch this morning and its fascinating for showing a few things about this war and how its developing.

First, and this is something we cant appreciate enough--there can be no surprises in this war. Even during Desert Storm after the Cold War, there could be ways of deceiving an opponent, hiding build-ups, etc. Those days seem to be gone.
You cant hide a long-logistical column from eyes in the sky--and that means no suprise assaults from the Russians (or anyone else probably). Not only will there be no surprises, the Ukrainians should have a pretty accurate idea of what is heading for them. They can prepare.

Interesting from a road/logistical idea is where this column happens to be (look closely) a secondary, narrow-lane road. The Ukrainians keeping Kharkiv has forced the Russians to take a longer and more complex road route for their build-up.

Looking at the map above, the main Russian supply nodes seem to be in Belgorod. And there are some major roads from Belgorod through Kharkiv to Izyum, from where any Russian assault will be launched. These would be by far the best way for a resupply to be sent.

However the Ukrainian strategy of keeping the Russians out of the cities makes this impossible and forces the Russians onto small secondary roads.

Looking closely at the road this long column is usingits really narrow. Wont be easy to maneuver, especially if the muddy season is here. Also, its longerwill lead to more wear and tear, vehicle wastage, etc.

This is all delaying the build up of Russian forces for a Donbas assault--if these troops are still 153 KM from Izyum. Plenty of time for breakdowns, Ukrainian attacks. And even when the Russians get there, they will have to reorganize. `

So the Russian build up is being hampered openly. Also a few things else to note. @Osinttechnical posted this video of Russian troops in the Donestsk Oblast preparing for the assault on the Donbas. Look at 2 seconds in....

Did you see the small, blac civilian car marked with the Z? thats just a little sign of the logistics snafu the Russians have gotten themselves into. That car is a crapbox and should be nowhere near a major military buildup. Near the end of the video you see another civilian auto

So the Russian buildup for the Donbas operation, as prophesied a while back, is not proving easy. The Institute for the Study of War now agrees, and wondering if it might take months for the Russians to build up the appropriate force to assault the Donbas.
www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-9

Long-story short. Those talking a few days ago about the Russians building up a large army and seizing the Donbas have to realize this is very unlikely in the short term (and long-term as well). We are just as likely the disorganized Russian preparations that occurred around Kyiv

The Ukrainians have excellent intelligence, the Russians have major logistical problems and will struggle to build up forces. Get even more support to Ukraine now and let them build up more strength in the Donbas and the Russians will be in for a very rough ride.

This is the golden window.
Crunch time.
Let's hope all the players for Ukraine don't fuck it up and get in what they can right now.

@RedToothBrush
Thank you for sharing this post (and all the others!).

First, and this is something we cant appreciate enough--there can be no surprises in this war. Even during Desert Storm after the Cold War, there could be ways of deceiving an opponent, hiding build-ups, etc. Those days seem to be gone.

And yet, the US admits it got some intelligence wrong, the sort it is OK to get wrong. It works to the military maxim of preparing for what may go wrong, which is a tactical part of success. Where it matters though the intel and deployment of it has been astonishing. The UA seem to know where to be at the right time.

Russia is sending an 8-mi long convoy of 100s of vehicles, including armored vehicles and artillery southbound through the Ukrainian town of Velykyi Burluk.

I fear this is equipment designed for a long war. Mostly artillery I suspect and Russia still has a lot of it even if we assume 50% has dodgy tyres. We are going to hear of dug in and fortified positions on both sides making small gains over a long period of time. What air cover could do to that column now though.

Alexandra apparently Boris has just comitted weapons that will help Ukraine in the black sea area.

Surely it's best to get in now and target column's not wait?

@PaperTyger

Alexandra apparently Boris has just comitted weapons that will help Ukraine in the black sea area.

Yes great news! he took my advice

Its what Kurt Volker advocated a week or so again and Ellwood shortly after......

Shows that even with equipment difference, personal can be found to operate/train up.

Its vital Odesa is not turned into another Mariupol and that UKraine has coastal ports post conflict.

The UA is going to need a massive and steady flow of arms replenishment to sustain counter attacks on that size of forces, all things equal which assumes there is no collapse of Russian morale (which is still a possibility). There will be new divisions in that convoy though.

I very much regret that the 8 mile column can’t be wiped right now rather than waiting to see what it will do. Forgive my ignorance.

According to Igor on twitter lot's of z symbol painted on stuff in Russia are being damaged And graffiti over

tickernews.co/uk-to-send-game-changer-anti-ship-harpoon-missiles-to-ukraine-but-what-are-they/

Scrolling I agree , why wait!

@ScrollingLeaves

I very much regret that the 8 mile column can’t be wiped right now rather than waiting to see what it will do. Forgive my ignorance.

We thought that about the 40 mile convoy, and it turned out the Ukrainians had done a rather good number on it. Lets hope for something similar.

One thing that really strikes me is how the Russian army is behaving so heinously when I naively thought armies were 'professional' and 'disciplined ' . Do militaries elsewhere now lose respect for this particular Russian army?

It's worth remembering that the "gold standard" for soldiers being professional and detached is very recent. Throughout history, every country on every side had examples of civilian horror in war, sometimes perpetrated deliberately to sow horror. For example, the razing of the North by William the Conqueror, the armies of Ghenkis Khan, the scorched earth tactics in South Africa, the fall of Berlin, the Japanese invasion of China...in many ways,the Russian army is reverting to type.

Of course, as others have pointed out, it does not help they are ill- equipped, ill-trained, beaten and brutalized themselves and encouraged to do it, by their superiors.

I hope someone pulls a rabbit out the hat and helps them take that convoy out before the soldiers start raping and pillaging more women and children.

Assuming that even the Russian army is taught properly the younger conscripts they sent in probably didn't get much training.
Having said that I can't imagine any training including honour etc in Russia.
Now this new general is in charge we will see more utter barbarism.
I am praying he gets taken out fast, that will be a huge moral boost.

I wonder if the Ukraine army gets rotated? Do they have enough personnel to give the others a break?

One thing that really strikes me is how the Russian army is behaving so heinously when I naively thought armies were 'professional' and 'disciplined

Read up about the Russian soldiers in WW2.

Woke up this morning to warnings on my social media from various European media outlets that viewing or sharing the video footage of the Russian soldier raping then shooting a 1 year old girl is a criminal offence. The bastard has been arrested but it doesn't say by whom. I should have stayed in bed.

@PaperTyger

Scrolling I agree , why wait!

Seeing or otherwise being aware of something like a convoy doesn't mean you can attack it...

Hopefully something is in play that we don't need to know about but it's possible that, so far at least, Ukranian forces haven't been able get close enough to hit the convoy with the ordnance they have available... we will probably find out shortly.

...and FWIW I agree with TargusEasting (and others elsewhere) who think this is looking like developing into a long conflict.

@PaperTyger

I wonder if the Ukraine army gets rotated? Do they have enough personnel to give the others a break?

Obviously depends on circumstances, I've read reports that some units are able to rotate some their personnel a little distance away from the front for a few days at a time (something like four days on, one off)

One thing that really strikes me is how the Russian army is behaving so heinously when I naively thought armies were 'professional' and 'disciplined'

Humans do horrible things to each other. In the theatre of war the strongest emotions are triggered. Revenge is one of them. There used to be a TV series called World at War which I recall watching as a child. Some of the scenes would be cut if it were broadcast today. Too graphic to disclose on here, but even away from the front line US sailors did terrible things to Japanese prisoners.

The thought that we could still be talking about this conflict in a year (or 10) is really depressing.

I’m sorry but why does Boris get the cockerels?

On the intel side, on Flight Radar 24, I have been watching a Northrop Grumman Global Hawk loop 52,000 above the Russian fleet in the Black Sea this morning. Rare to see on FR24.

@FatCatThinCat

Woke up this morning to warnings on my social media from various European media outlets that viewing or sharing the video footage of the Russian soldier raping then shooting a 1 year old girl is a criminal offence. The bastard has been arrested but it doesn't say by whom. I should have stayed in bed.

Jesus Christ, that's horrific, what a monster, what kind of person does that? I hope they punish him severely but nothing will make up for what he has done.

I found the threat of a nuclear attack that was the topic of worry for some in some of the earlier threads a lot easier to deal with than the details of the war crimes committed by the Russian troops (partly because coincidently I recently saw the British Cold War era information film telling people to stay at home in case of a nuclear attack, to which I thought "well, there's nothing you can do anyway", they were just trying to calm people down and I think it's one of those things you can't do anything about). It's horrific.

I found the nuclear threat terrifying earlier too. Especially being in Sweden where the authorities were sending out info on where the shelters were and how to prepare. But as the atrocities come to light I find myself veering more towards 'fuck, it just nuke the bastards'.