Ukraine Invasion: Part 19

[MagicFox]

Welcome friends, still going

[quote Motorina]I found this article very interesting. It's by a military historian, putting the conflict in Ukraine into the context of the nuclear threat. It certainly helped me understand why both sides are doing (and not doing) some things.

acoup.blog/2022/03/11/collections-nuclear-deterrence-101/[/quote]

Thanks for this, I also found it really useful for understanding. And a bit terrifying. Is anybody else really struggling to adjust to a new world view? Obviously I'm admitting huge ignorance but i kind of miss that blissful ignorance right now. The pandemic looks like a bloody party compared to this

Putin can launch missile's from a long way away I don't think zelensky should taunt him

When it really comes down to it, a weapon is defensive or offensive dependent on how it is used. I would regard all conventional weapons used by the Ukrainians on their own soil against a war criminal invading army as defensive. As we've seen for weeks now, Russia comes up with outright lies to excuse its behaviour, so worrying about provoking Putin is pretty much futile. Unless Russia is defeated or rendered powerless to act on its aims then Putin will do as he likes and find a fake justification for it afterwards.

@Motorina

I think the interesting point from that article was the fact that the supply of weaponry has to be calibrated. It feels like some awful game of jinga with each increment in the potency of weaponry having to be followed by analysis of the Russian position to gauge whether a red line has been crossed.

I agree with comments about not appearing triumphalist or overly jingoistic as getting Putin's back up seems a bad idea. Also the myriad calls for Putin to tried for warcrimes is surely for a domestic audience to show contempt for the actions of the Russian military rather than trials being a realistic prospect.

Tr Mr

Agree Esma surely all defensive when defending their country.

Ceramic hen is hilarious, another touching aside to come out of this travesty

@MagicFox I think the thing I keep reminding myself of is that this isn’t a new threat (Nukes), it’s been there for decades now. It’s just that we’re suddenly more aware of it again because it’s been thrust into the headlines.

I thought actually that article was helpful in understanding why Putin put his deterrent on high alert (reiterating that a red line exists) and in putting some of the action, and inaction, into perspective.

As an aside do you think this war has brought into focus the horrors of conflict to a new generation after years of peace in Europe. I certainly feel for my children the conflict in Ukraine and it's consequences will have an influence on their world view. As a child growing up in the shadow of the cold war I had a niggling fear of nuclear war?

Also how will the Ukraine conflict play into popular culture. A few months ago I was watching Vigil (BBC drama about Trident) where the Russians were the antogonist . Do we still use the Russians as the go to bad guy for thrillers etc. or is this now a sensitive topic? I saw adverts for the new Top Gun movie and I very much doubt we will see US jets in action but a military based film at this point seems a little jarring.

One thing that really strikes me is how the Russian army is behaving so heinously when I naively thought armies were 'professional' and 'disciplined ' . Do militaries elsewhere now lose respect for this particular Russian army?

Radiation levels unusually high in Chernobyl and expect Russian soldiers who were based there to suffer radiation sickness.

Thanks for everyone who answered my question. Can’t remember who asked what I meant. What I was implying was, are we likely to see Ukrainians being armed with offensive weapons where there could be a potential threat to Russia. I was thinking a long the times of if Russia itself was being attacked, perhaps the peace talks would hold more value. It seems grossly unfair that it’s just Ukrainian infrastructure being turned to rubble. However I appreciate the loss to any life regardless of nationality still holds the same value as any life. However, I can’t help wondering whether Putin would be more interested in peace talks if Moscow or alike was under attack. My mindset may be rather narrow though, it’s a tragedy on both sides of the border but on one side huge loses of life are happening, or even life as people once knew it.

@mids2019

As an aside do you think this war has brought into focus the horrors of conflict to a new generation after years of peace in Europe. I certainly feel for my children the conflict in Ukraine and it's consequences will have an influence on their world view. As a child growing up in the shadow of the cold war I had a niggling fear of nuclear war?

Also how will the Ukraine conflict play into popular culture. A few months ago I was watching Vigil (BBC drama about Trident) where the Russians were the antogonist . Do we still use the Russians as the go to bad guy for thrillers etc. or is this now a sensitive topic? I saw adverts for the new Top Gun movie and I very much doubt we will see US jets in action but a military based film at this point seems a little jarring.

One thing that really strikes me is how the Russian army is behaving so heinously when I naively thought armies were 'professional' and 'disciplined ' . Do militaries elsewhere now lose respect for this particular Russian army?

On the point of the behaviour of servicemen. War is war and it brings out the worst in many people. Let’s never forget the British servicemen pictured pissing in the hands of Iraqi prisoners with bags over the heads. By no means on the same level but barbarity and inhumanity happens in all arenas of war.

On the flip side there will undoubtedly be Russian soldiers who have chosen not to behave so barbarically, we may however never hear about them. What is clear is that on the Russian army it appears to be actively encouraged from the top.

@RedToothBrush

MFA of Ukraine *@mfa*_ukraine On the kitchen cabinet that remained mounted after the shelling of #Borodianka and became a symbol of inviolability, a ceramic rooster made by #Ukrainian artist Prokip Bidasiuk was recognized. Today *@ZelenskyyUa & @BorisJohnson* were presented with this roosters.

I love this. The shelves staying on the wall several stories high became some weird Ukrainian meme that I don't think made it onto twitter and English language social media. The look on Johnson's face going 'wtf is this' is just priceless.

Which ones the cock?

From behind the lines.

I've not loaded bits that are identifying. If this looks different to my previous one, it is WhatsApp on a laptop.

Prior to this, having checked that they are alive we were talking about what a specific amount of money buys in this occupied part of Kherson oblast.

This area is mixed in terms of first language with a majority speaking Ukrainian and a large minority Russian. My relatives speak Russian first. My hypothesis has been that the Russian forces would be better behaved in this area as it is clearly within the zone often shown on maps as Novorossiya, a term which was initially an Imperial Russian one as the Empire pushed south and in recent years has been a Statelet of the Mind of those pushing separatism or unification with Russia. Although things were no doubt worse in Bucha, it seems that there is a deterioration here.

More from behind the lines

I think this speaks for itself.

Our conversation then covered things I can't post here.

Hearts and minds, eh?

Thanks @Igotjelly, I thought so too.

I've just seen a video where a Chechen soldier is filming himself walking through a ruined street and talking about clearing houses. In the background a woman starts desperately screaming the name 'Natasha!' then there is a gunshot and she falls silent. Honestly, some of the stuff I've seen in the last couple of days is no different from images of the Einsatzgruppen. It feels hard to process that something of this level of atrocity is happening in 21st century Europe and the response is so equivocal. All those fantasies that politicians have about how they would have prevented Hitler and it turns out they would have done a lot of hand-wringing. Worse still, a lot of the public would have been more interested in whataboutery and conspiracy theories.

I've been to Russia, but not since the 2014 seizure of Crimea and parts of Donetsk and Luhansk. I didn't want to spend money there and give any sign of approval (not that anyone would notice). However, I found pre-2014 Russia somewhere I felt comfortable and I enjoyed taking in the sights alongside some work related activity.

Ukraine I have been to more often, but not as much as I have been to Spain for instance. The relatives in Ukraine have always been so welcoming and tolerant of my language challenges and being a bit of a mixed up outsider. Some, like the ones in Kherson, I have encountered perhaps three times at significant family events. Others in Dnipro I have got to know a bit better. There has been so much hope for modernisation and Europeanisation. It is heart-breaking to see so many buildings shattered and lives lost. However, I don't think those watching from the west can have missed the sheer strength of spirit that permeates the country as it defends itself.

There was a story from Melitopol a couple of weeks ago about Russian soldiers, with the help of the Russian-imposed mayor, looting humanitarian aid or selling to people what was meant to be given for free.

The soldiers with Boris and zelensky, UK or Ukraine or both?
City look's eerily quiet.
It must feel amazing for zelensky to try be able to host and show leaders around in person after hiding in basement's for week's..

Esma the lack of preventing action we've seen is dispicsble

www.eastwest.ngo/idea/understanding-national-identity-ukraine%E2%80%99s-ethnic-diversity

@RedToothBrush

MFA of Ukraine *@mfa*_ukraine On the kitchen cabinet that remained mounted after the shelling of #Borodianka and became a symbol of inviolability, a ceramic rooster made by #Ukrainian artist Prokip Bidasiuk was recognized. Today *@ZelenskyyUa & @BorisJohnson* were presented with this roosters.

I love this. The shelves staying on the wall several stories high became some weird Ukrainian meme that I don't think made it onto twitter and English language social media. The look on Johnson's face going 'wtf is this' is just priceless.

Chicken Kyiv 🍗

There have been quite a few reports of humanitarian aid to Mariupol being stolen.

Im sure that the Russians then sell it to the inhabitants or do a photo op to show how kind they are giving it to poor Mariupolans who are being attacked by their own Ukranian terrorists.

--

One thing that really strikes me is how the Russian army is behaving so heinously when I naively thought armies were 'professional' and 'disciplined ' . Do militaries elsewhere now lose respect for this particular Russian army?

Personally I think the world has been stunned by how hollow the Russian armies are.

Logistics problems, co-ordination problems, morale problems, huge kit problems, discipline problems. These appear to be considerable.

I'm sure that individual battle groups will be good and high-quality but as an army, no.

The looting and rape and murders appear to be not only allowed but encouraged by the leadership. This implies a lack of any professionalism, as good armies try to stop this or at least keep it in check, not to actively encourage it.

People have been afraid of the Russian army's effectiveness for a long time but it is, as an army, a laughing stock now. Im dead serious and not being sarcastic. I think countries are afraid of Russia's nukes but to everyone's considerable surprise any decent standing army could beat Russia's easily. (China will be taking real note of this).

Notimagain and RTB and Targus and several others have more detailed knowledge.

I'm sure that when the Ukraine war is lost/won eventually - finally - then Russia will be trying to rebuild its war machine and it might actually rediscover the value of quality. There was someone put in charge some years ago who was starting to curb the corruption and theft, but he did his job too well and was fired. Maybe they'll ask him back.

@fernsandlilies

An inspiring tale of improvisation and spirit from such a brave man. His wife and daughter managed to get out to another city but he is staying behind to help the 100 mostly women and children in the bomb shelter. A small generator to charge phones. Fixed the ventilation system in the shelter and fresh water storage. Cooking on a small stove for many.

I went to his Etsy shop and bought some digital art so he can hopefully use it to stock up on food and medicines.

Thanks fernsandlilies for drawing attention to his plight.

The looting and rape and murders appear to be not only allowed but encouraged by the leadership. This implies a lack of any professionalism, as good armies try to stop this or at least keep it in check, not to actively encourage it.

I am no military pundit but it seems to be that if an army treated its soldiers well - as in gave their regular food supplies, equipment and training - there is less incentive for soldiers to go looting and plundering. It seems as if the Russian army sends their ill-trained, ill-supported and ill-disciplined troops into civilian areas and encourage them to loot and plunder with impunity as their prize to stay in the war theatre. Like a benefit in kind to being a soldier as compensation for treating them poorly. I'll bet some of those looting soldiers were starving.

No excuse for torture, executions and rape though. May those soldiers meet their fate in Donbass.

www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-plans-permanent-military-presence-border-says-stoltenberg-telegraph-2022-04-09/

Interview with the Telegraph (might be behind their paywall and I am not a subscriber):

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/09/exclusive-full-scale-nato-military-force-defend-borders/

As I see it, NATO would have in those countries that border Russia sufficient forces to withstand and repel any attack rather than allow Russia to invade and take a foothold.

Now is the time for Finland and Sweden to join NATO, all things equal.