@mids2019
my own views, fwtarw (being untrained in military or long term consequence-forecasting)
If Ukraine wins in some sense what will Russia's response be? Will this lead to the start of an internal regime change as the humiliating defeat dawns on the Russian ruling class? How will Putin react?
Ukraine has already partially won as kyiv is free. Russia's response is to up the savagery and increase the massive media control in its own country. Long term that's going to be a huge problem for the West, unless the next leader chooses to undo the state stranglehold on the media, because more generations will grow up hating the West. The way Putin is handling this seems worse than even Stalin's media control.
The ruling class already know it's not going to original plan. I suspect they are waiting and seeing, but not planning any coup. Putin's control is too great.
What will he do? This is the wild card. I don't think the nuclear option is impossible, but it's not that likely either. He's a survivor. More likely he will try to regroup, look to China and India, Pakistan and Brazil and try to seduce them enough to get the military and other parts that the West will no longer supply. Cyber attacks. Much, much more effort to increasing the political dissension between states.
Possibly trying to take over Hungary indirectly. This seems a real possibility.
If we do have a defeated Russia how do you ensure no rearnament happens?
I don't think you can but he'll struggle to get any parts from the West and those parts are essential to a modern war machine. Rearmament will take time. What he may do is try to move away from a conscript army that's poorly trained to a flexible, well trained and well paid army.
Will forcible regime change be the only option to prevent this?Obviously the nuclear factor is there in terms of invasion but will sanctions be extended to try and achieve this?
I don't see how the West can arrange a regime change and I don't think it should. Russia is still a sovereign nation and just as we want them to respect Ukraine, the fact they are still sovereign should also be respected.
Could we have a scenario of Ukraine pushing into Russian territory particularly Crimea and can Russia defend itself? Will other states take advantage of the very much weakened Russian defence force?
Best case as far as I can see is that Ukraine pushes Russia right back to her own borders but actually, leaves Crimea in Russian hands. It was only given to Ukraine in living memory and in many ways it seems like it should be Russian. The Crim tartars have had a very rough deal though.
Invading Russia would be the worst idea ever. Half the world is on Ukraine's side now. If Ukraine went into Russia all the sympathy would evaporate. Plus Ukraine needs to rebuild its shattered cities and economy. Plus there are a lot more Russian soldiers than Ukrainians. Some of them do not want to be in war with Ukraine, but if their own country is invaded - well, they'll react just as Ukraine has. With absolute fury and determination. Bad idea to invade!
Will other states take advantage of a weakened Russia? Economically yes. Politically, economically and militarily Russia has weakened itself badly and China will be more than glad to encourage closer ties because Russia will be very much the junior partner in that relationship. The weaker they are, the less clout they'll have.
The poor performance of the Russian military has shown we have really one superpower in the world currently , the USA. Will the rest of the world accept pax Americana or tacitly support Russia with a geopolitical fear of one dominant military in the world?
Um, China is another superpower. It'll be greater than the USA in the coming decades.
The USA has thrown its weight around heavily in the last decades, in some wars it had no business being involved in (eg Iraq 2). It's behaved with arrogance and alienated many nations, plus Trump made it partially into a laughing stock and partially into someone whose word you can't trust (pulling out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership for example.
America is still a very great nation but it isn't the only one. But Russia has become at best 2nd or 3rd rate through the internal parasitism of the oligarchs and this war and it's hard to see how it can regain any weight in the world in the near or long term. Their poor military performance spells opportunity to quite a few people waiting in the wings, I suspect.