Ukraine Invasion Part 18

[Ijsbear]

Place for information, discussion, points of view, useful links and above all, a hope that this sovereign land can regain its freedom.

I do sound very hawkish I admit. I'm angry about it all.

But it would have to be carefully done. I agree with Navy in the Black Sea and international aid for humanitarian purposes. Free up West Ukraine to free their army to go to the East

Also complete blockade on Russia and
Turn off the gas (have to figure that one out) cut his money off.

Reading something last night someone mentioned Bidens positioning on him rightly calling Putin a war criminal again and how he is effectively boxing us all in for the future and this is a deliberate tactic. After all this, how can anyone when trading with Russia do this with a war criminal in place. We can't.

His face in the pictures from Bucha yesterday showed the terrible strain he is under. How he is keeping sane, I don't know.

Im not at all out war. I doubt i will be.

But i do think far too many have woken up far too late and I do think that more could be pushed through.

Its the sitting on hands pretending that its all going to be fine, only to 'express shock and outrage' that does my head in.

People KNEW what was happening 3 weeks ago. You are not telling me that European intelligence was blind to it. Bodies in Bucha are visible on satellite images. They've been there 3 weeks. They knew and still persisted with a weak attitude...

Think back to Zelensky's address to Israel’s parliament went down badly because he drew parallels with the Holocaust. He was rebuffed for it. Its a response I don't think will age well. Do I think the Israeli's didn't know? Israel? Course they fucking know.

@RedToothBrush

Btw the French Presidental election is giving me really really bad vibes...

Like seriously bad....

Yes me too

@ClaudineClare Never ceases to amaze me how circumstance can see the cream rise to the top, Zelenskyy has shown leadership and courage that 99% of Western leaders over the last 75 years have not.

I really did think Zelenskyy would leave Kyiv and have a Govt in absence, the fact he choose to stay when it looked like his fate would be death, speaks volumes for the man and the people of Ukraine.

Agree re Zelenksyy. He is rather incredible. It does worry me when he's out and about though. Brave.

I think Biden may surprise us, eventually. I think his visit to Poland changed things.

Key Takeaways

Russian forces in Izyum are setting conditions to begin offensive operations southeast toward Slovyansk in the coming days to link up with other Russian forces in Donbas and encircle Ukrainian defenders.
Russian forces in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts continue to make little to no progress and face mounting casualties and declining morale. Replacements and reinforcements from northeastern Ukraine are highly unlikely to meaningfully change the balance of forces.
Efforts by Russian forces advancing from Izyum to capture Slovyansk and threaten Ukrainian forces in Donbas with encirclement will likely prove to be the next pivotal battle of the war in Ukraine. If Russian forces are unable to take Slovyansk, Russia’s campaign to capture the entirety of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts will likely fail.
The defenders of Mariupol have outperformed ISW’s previous estimates, and Russian forces are likely taking heavy casualties in ongoing efforts to capture the city.
Ukrainian forces likely conducted successful counterattacks in Kherson Oblast in the last 24 hours.
Russian forces have almost completely withdrawn from Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts and will likely completely vacate these regions in the coming days.
Russian forces withdrawn from the Kyiv axis are highly unlikely to be effectively deployed elsewhere in Ukraine and are likely a spent force.

It's a miracle that Mariupol is holding out at all, a human miracle.

A lot of regular people knew house this would go from day 1. Of course many governments / intelligence agencies knew how this would go from well before that. Why every tank, plane, and weapon wasn’t sent to Ukraine before then is beyond me.

If Putin knew the West would come in with such a strong response before he invaded (when he could still save face and go with the “military exercise” line), I wonder would it have happened at all. Or how it might have gone differently if the Ukrainians could push back with serious force from the get go.

I completely agree Alexandra200. I do worry that someone will get to him though and manage to kill him.

I watched the first episode of the comedy he was in the other day. It was so surreal.

It's a miracle that Mariupol is holding out at all, a human miracle

If the threat to Odesa could be lifted, 1000s of troops could help relieve pressure on Mariupol and the best way to do that is to get rid of the sea blockade, vital unless we want another Mariupol.

God alone knows what horrors are being committed there.

Its the sitting on hands pretending that its all going to be fine, only to 'express shock and outrage' that does my head in.

I have no doubt that a lot of "thoughts and prayers" are being mixed in too ... the most most powerful weapon in the world considering how often they are deployed ...

I think sometimes bringing in military experience, current or previous, lends credibility to a poster, in the minds of some, on threads like this

It does to me because military people or people who have studied warfare like BreadinCaptivity, have training and often experience and more awareness of what's actually possible and isn't. Someone like Bread is trained in seeing the patterns of conflict and the historical results of going into conflict in a number of different situations and the after-conflict consequences.

I think balance is important. Agreed!

RTB makes a good point though - it was known that these murders were taking place. The powers that be must have known the public reaction and planned how to deal with it. Though perhaps the degree of wanton savagery has shifted even their stance a bit.

@PippinStar

A lot of regular people knew house this would go from day 1. Of course many governments / intelligence agencies knew how this would go from well before that. Why every tank, plane, and weapon wasn’t sent to Ukraine before then is beyond me.

If Putin knew the West would come in with such a strong response before he invaded (when he could still save face and go with the “military exercise” line), I wonder would it have happened at all. Or how it might have gone differently if the Ukrainians could push back with serious force from the get go.

Yep Tobias Ellwood MP (Con) wanted a NATO rapid reaction force of 40k troops sent to Ukraine months before Putin invaded.... he was told this would escalate and antagonise Putin....

@RedToothBrush

Btw the French Presidental election is giving me really really bad vibes...

Like seriously bad....

The polls have tightened very rapidly, ever since darling M Le Pen managed to disassociate her brand from Putin, and it became how big a head banger Mr Zemmour really is.

A lot can still effect the election but we might be about to see the first example of what happens when a leader appears to be overly involved in World events whilst at home a lot of the public simply want prices at the pump/in the supermarket kept down…..

@RedToothBrush

Btw the French Presidental election is giving me really really bad vibes...

Like seriously bad....

Why is the French Presidential election giving cause for concern? Apologies for the stupid question. Are there some less than desirable candidates?

@Catquestion imagine Donald Trump with a vulva

A lot can still effect the election but we might be about to see the first example of what happens when a leader appears to be overly involved in World events whilst at home a lot of the public simply want prices at the pump/in the supermarket kept down

Macron capped energy price rises to 4% and 14% for electricity and gas and recently cut 15 cents of a litre of fuel.... so far more than say the UK has done.

I don't know why Le Pen is proving more popular now but she is still a long way back in the polls and is still likely to lose in the 2nd round vote.

As far as i can see, Le Pen and RN are more like our own Tory party.

We/NATO are not going in.

It suits NATO to have Russia tied up in a bankrupting war for as long as possible and there is no stomach for direct involvement, and that's on top of the nuclear threat.

Same with China, which is why they won't get off that fence they have been busy sitting on.

As for MN only being a forum, you have to remember that chat forums are used for gauging public opinion and they are used for shaping it, one way or the other.

@ChardonnaysPetDragon

We/NATO are not going in.

It suits NATO to have Russia tied up in a bankrupting war for as long as possible and there is no stomach for direct involvement, and that's on top of the nuclear threat.

Same with China, which is why they won't get off that fence they have been busy sitting on.

As for MN only being a forum, you have to remember that chat forums are used for gauging public opinion and they are used for shaping it, one way or the other.

Its reflective of public opinion. It definitely goes both ways. It can drive it or it be driven by. Thats the power of MN - grassroots (something Putin doesn't believe exists or should exist).

There were stories all over twitter about men trying to escape the area around Irpin / Bucha and being shot in cold blood around 5th/6th March. However its Telegram rather than Twitter which is social media of choice for Ukrainians (so only a small amount crosses from one to the other.

There is a lot more out there about what has happened since. Rumours still at this stage but you can bet its probably real and you can bet that its the tip of a large iceberg.

As I say, there will be satellite pictures of graves. We know there are a lot of new graves in Kherson from this already.

I don't know anything about military, but I do know about Germany and gas (oil not such a problem- could be doable). We have family there running businesses and working with ESA.
Germany needs a way out of using Russian gas fast. They know it. Until it can be achieved, they need financial support to avoid a huge recession. Russia needs to sell its gas into Europe- it's as simple as that. As yet, it has no other market that compares. Also, you can't just turn off gas at source, and storage is limited (and expensive). Turn off the gas funds to Russia, and you turn off more than sanctions will ever achieve. It would affect civilian and military and it needs doing right now. It's no use hand wringing over Merkel's decisions. We should be supporting Germany and to a less extent France right now, from this week. It will be very costly, but much less costly than war.

Same with China, which is why they won't get off that fence they have been busy sitting on.

They are playing a dangerous game. Putins paranoia will have twigged this is what they are doing ... maybe they think they can push him so far into a corner he'll squeak ?

The sanctions are not yet biting and not sure that the current ones will ever trump the fake news on the Russian side. The life in Moscow article on the previous thread showed that they were barely noticeable - they are a long way from any impact or civil unrest that will have an impact such as we have seen in Sri Lanka.

Earlier post where Air B n B have just this weekend stopped trading (takes a genocide and rape and murder of toddlers to revisit your business plan) is a disgrace.

Maybe if the politicians are too slow then consumers need to boycott and cripple the Russian economy ourselves

I wonder how far Russia's economy is expected to contract. The last figure I saw was about 15% I think. Wonder if they will drop down the GPD table too from 11th.

It feels so odd that whilst the world was wringing its hands worrying about chemical and nuclear atrocities the Russians were already busy using less high tech but no less horrific means to terrorise the population of Ukraine.

Thanks @Alexandra2001 - I’m not in the UK, so that kind of things passes me by. I’m sure there were others advocating for similar.

From a psychology point of view though, I’m baffled as to how officials thought appeasement and backing off was the way to go. Surely anyone with a basic knowledge of the type of personality they were dealing with would say otherwise. Being proactive, strong and firm was/is the way to go.