Meet the Other Phone. Flexible and made to last.

Meet the Other Phone.
Flexible and made to last.

Buy now

Please or to access all these features

Chat

Join the discussion and chat with other Mumsnetters about everyday life, relationships and parenting.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 17

998 replies

MagicFox · 27/03/2022 07:23

A new place for us to convene, thread 17.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
33
Gingerwarthog · 01/04/2022 21:19

@HappyWinter
Totally agree with this.
Looking at DD and friend (with our two cats) this evening and imagining what life would be like if you had to grab your kids, pets and everything you cared about and find shelter or drive to the Polish border.

HappyWinter · 01/04/2022 21:52

@Igotjelly

Red Cross have had to abandon today’s planned evacuation of Mariupol. I can’t begin to imagine the soul crushing disappointment at thinking you’re going to get out and be safe only to have that ripped away 😭
I was hoping they would be able to go ahead today, it's been so long Sad. It's a horrific situation, those poor people.
HappyWinter · 01/04/2022 21:59

I feel powerless, I wish I could help them. I'm doing the only things I can, donating and cutting energy use. In the UK, we don't use much Russian gas, but 40% of our electricity is from gas generation and we need to move as a bloc with other sympathetic countries (EU, US etc) to using less gas and oil so all countries as a whole can cut off the main revenue stream for funding this war.

K4fkaesque · 01/04/2022 22:00

@RedToothBrush

4/ This means many of the forces committed in February 2022 are now so under-strength that they need to be taken out of the action and re-grouped or re-established. This is taking place right now and explains the operative pause of the Russian armed forces.

[RTB: so let me get this straight - the 'tactical withdrawal' has fallen at exactly the beaucratic moment the 12 month conscription was up... And thats the reason for them going back to Belarus and Russia. They won't be going to Donbass cos their contract is up!]

I don't think this is what he means. Conscripts haven't been deployed in Ukraine AFAIK. The issue is that last years intake of conscripts (134,000) have come to the end of their service and can now take up a 2 year contract as regular soldiers. These could serve as a relief force for Russia in the next few weeks.

RedToothBrush · 01/04/2022 22:01

Trent Telenko @trenttelenko
This is going to be a Russian casualty ratio🧵thread with a lot of Russian corruption thrown in to give you a feel for the political-military pressures inside Russia's ruling Kleptocracy.

I've done a thread previously on Russian casualty ratios in order to demonstrate how the ratio of dead to wounded meant Russia didn't have a modern military medical system.

This meant that for every two dead Russians, there were three wounded due

...to the complete lack of modern blood clotting bandages & a "golden hour" medivac care system.

So, the UAF report of 17,700 dead Russians means there are another 26,550 wounded out of an estimated invasion force of 190,000.

61,950 total KIA & WIA out of 190,000 is 32.6%

And note, neither the UAF or RuAF are acknowledging the 3,000(+) plus the UAF has captured.

The problem with these numbers is there is evidence that the 190,000 Russian number is over inflated by up to 25%.

See:

"A war trophy in the form of an order of battle for a VDV BTG as of February 12th. Unit 42091, which is apparently a part of the 7th VDV division. States that it’s supposed to have 538 troops in total but only has 403. So they were low on people to begin with."

Colonels of regiments cheating governments by reporting more soldiers than there really are on the payroll & pocketing the difference is a corruption template dating to the "Great King" of Sumer in Mesopotamia at the dawn of recorded civilization.

We know this because the "Great King's" scribes placed his complaints on clay tablets modern archeologists dug up & translated

This payroll corruption template was endemic in pre-Napoleonic Western militaries

You only see it now in Kleptocratic militaries today like Russia's

Remember early on in this latest invasion of Ukraine that Putin was professing to be surprised conscripts were in the Russian Army invasion force?

He was not lying.

Putin was genuinely surprised.

Putin fired his honest defense minister in 2012 replacing him with a get-along guy who let the kleptocrats steal whatever they wanted.

Putin did this because his power was shaky enough that he needed a new income source to keep his cronies happy.

If you have not read @kamilkazani thread about that. Go there now and read it. He explains the players & structure of Russia's Kleptocracy that is the background for this tweet thread.

Putin is suffering from the traditional dictator's trap of believing his own press releases because he has made it too dangerous for his cronies and underlings to tell him the truth.

It's pretty clear Defense Minister Shoygu let every Regimental

...Colonel in the Russian Army & regime security units under the defense ministry, like the VDV, run at 25% under strength in the old payroll dodge so they could share the rake off

The VDV has a different more politically reliable recruit pool than the Russian Army "contract

...soldier" units. So the VDV could not grab just any conscript like the Army did.

Since almost all VDV units were slated to go in. The VDV could not do sharing deals between units & went in 25% understrength.

It didn't occur to Putin when he put in Shoygu, and no one told him, that this would tube his armed forces' military ability.

And everyone down the military started stealing from the military too.

Remember all those reports of Russian soldiers getting frostbite?

That was company commanders selling Russian cold weather gear for tank & other vehicle crews. The scam broke down because Ukrainian drones forced vehicle crewmen to sleep in trenches

...at night to avoid getting killed as Ukrainian drones homed in on hot running engines.

This payroll corruption has two knock on effects.

1st, there is no way in h--l that the Russian army can reconstitute the forces it lost. It isn't just a matter of lost vehicles.

The Russian Army units not in the invasion force are all well below 75% strength because they were picked over to fill out the invasion force.

2nd, their are huge issues here with Russian Regime stability.

Will Putin's military cronies put up with loss of a significant part of their income because they must now stop stealing from the military just because Putin insists that it fight a war?

Will they put up with losing the very important benefits they enjoy from touring Western Europe?

Plus have to face the possibility of their own underlings try to kill them to get more money?

Putin's cronies can continue supporting Putin and lose a very large portion of their income for the foreseeable future, or they can kill him, blame him for everything and try to get the sanctions ended.

Which to choose?

IS THIS A TRICK QUESTION?

[RTB: If tbe Russian army was 25% less than its paper work that would put the real size of the army at 142,500 with 64,950 KIA, MIA or POW. Or 45.6%. As much as I might like to believe the numbers here, i am genuinely struggling to get to that ballpark]

Ijsbear · 01/04/2022 22:17

Trent Telenko's stuff seems well thought out and often clear eyed (he pointed out in a thread that because Ukrainian soldiers are travelling in civilian cars, it is reasonable for Russian soldiers to expect danger from civilian cars and fire on them. It's not a war crime - just like if Russian Red Cross ambulances are being used to transport ammunition then it's reasonable for the Ukrainians to fire on them, too).

I do wonder if the conscripts who have reached the end of their service will be -allowed- to go home or if they will be forced to remain. Russia isn't a country that's honoured many contracts or promises recently.

GlasswareisOverated · 01/04/2022 22:21

Out of morbid curiosity, I just googled how many wars have taken place since I was born. There are roughly around eighty
So much for living in peaceful times.

meditrina · 01/04/2022 22:45

Yes, @GlasswareisOverated

Correspondent in Ukraine on Beeb news tonight was asked if, in all his long experience, he had seen anything like this, and his answer was 'Yes' and then named a few, including in Europe.

Shuuu · 01/04/2022 22:49

Not sure if mentioned. A Russian soldier has now died from radiation poisoning due to not wearing PPE around Chernobyl

meditrina · 01/04/2022 22:52

@Shuuu

Not sure if mentioned. A Russian soldier has now died from radiation poisoning due to not wearing PPE around Chernobyl
Source?
PaperTyger · 01/04/2022 23:07

Hopefully this will make future russian soilder think about being near it the absolute bloody idiot's in charge of it.

How in god's name was it ever allowed/ok to have Nuclear site's randomly taken over by absolutely random ignorant soldiers from God knows where.

There needs too be an immediate Nuclear safety thing drawn up by UN.
Anyone' including UN members do this, their right to veto is denied and they can expect UN safety forces go immediately to secure the sites!

Shuuu · 01/04/2022 23:16

The sources are saying Russian soldiers have been camping/digging trenches in the red forest. The Russians really have not done their homework regarding Ukraine have they! It’s unbelievable really

BringBackCoffeeCreams · 01/04/2022 23:24

How could they be clueless about the dangers of camping out in the exclusion zone? Everybody on the entire planet has heard of Chernobyl surely?

Shuuu · 01/04/2022 23:28

@BringBackCoffeeCreams

How could they be clueless about the dangers of camping out in the exclusion zone? Everybody on the entire planet has heard of Chernobyl surely?
It’s madness. The guest death could be the first of many. An awful death. However if it is mainly conscripts being sent then they may be totally unaware, their lives don’t seem to hold much value to Russia. I’ve seen reports of Norway citizens being told to dust off their bunkers, how true this is I’m not sure but correct me if I’m wrong, Russia is closer to Chernobyl than Norway Hmm
TiddyTidTwo · 01/04/2022 23:31

Putin must still be living in the USSR. His army is for certain and thought it was the good old days. Honestly they are a complete shit show considering their "mass".

Ukraine is now a modern army, trained by NATO, supplemented by NATO supplies, which could be expanded on. We can surely see that now.

Ukraine will defeat Putin. They have have to (I'm sure we are all treading a fine line behind them helping). Russia cannot take Ukraine.

theyhavenothingbuttheaudacity · 01/04/2022 23:41

It's just tragic. These soldiers are merely canon fodder to Putin and his cronies

Confusedmonkey · 01/04/2022 23:48

@hillsmakeyoustrong thank you for the suggestion. I will look into it.

Ijsbear · 01/04/2022 23:55

Putin must still be living in the USSR

Well yes, that's the whole problem, in his head he is :/ It's just reality doesn't conform.

TiddyTidTwo · 02/04/2022 00:08

They
I should add to my previous post, yes and sending in young cannon fodder to either be maimed or die. The other element like to kill civilians and rape women.

Europe 2022.

I am still really, really struggling with the standing back and watch.

tobee · 02/04/2022 02:38

So I posted the other night a link to an NYT article What if Putin Didn't Miscalculate? and I just stumbled across this article repudiating that idea generally, with specific mention of that article. By Zach Beauchamp, published in Vox, via Apple News:-

apple.news/AGa5bcszVSXm5g2Zf77yRLw

TargusEasting · 02/04/2022 07:45

Starstreak article. Reports as one helicopter hit, but if I’m not mistaken there are two. One is hit coming into the arena and the more obvious one is at the end of the clip.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10678173/British-portable-Starstreak-missile-shoots-Russian-helicopter-Ukraine.html

notimagain · 02/04/2022 08:01

@BringBackCoffeeCreams

How could they be clueless about the dangers of camping out in the exclusion zone? Everybody on the entire planet has heard of Chernobyl surely?
With the caveat that we need more info on the reports I'd say the answer to your question is because they are/were teenagers brought up in Russia, probably in the back end of beyond.

Until the TV series and various associated programmes came along in the west I wonder how many British 18 ish year olds (in fact scratch that how many sub forty year olds) would have been cognisant enough of Chernobyl to recognise the dangers let alone understand the additional risks generated by digging in?

The fact most of the Russian troops don't carrying maps won't have helped....did the conscripts even know where they were and what that big building on the horizon was?

OTOH the supposed "grown ups" should have known better..

notimagain · 02/04/2022 08:10

[quote TargusEasting]Starstreak article. Reports as one helicopter hit, but if I’m not mistaken there are two. One is hit coming into the arena and the more obvious one is at the end of the clip.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10678173/British-portable-Starstreak-missile-shoots-Russian-helicopter-Ukraine.html[/quote]
It looks to me like the smoke early on in the video might well be from flares (IR decoys) released by one of the helicopters ...the only hit I see is the event at the end.

PestorPeston · 02/04/2022 08:15

Roberta Metsola

Dear Ruslan,
Dear Members of the Rada,
Dear brave warriors
Dear brothers and sisters,

Thank you for inviting me to Kyiv to address the Rada. It is an honour to be here among you fellow European parliamentarians. But more than that, it is a duty for me to be here. It is a duty that I must fulfil. A responsibility to you on the frontline. To show the world that even in the darkness of war, parliamentary democracy is the light.

I am here today, as a representative of the European Parliament, of the people of Europe, to tell you one thing. We are with you. In good times and in less good times - we are with you.

The images we have seen around the world these last horrible months have been of destruction, of death, of innocent lives torn apart, women, children forced to abandon their homes and their lives.

But Europe and the world have also seen your courage and the defiance of Ukrainian families. The heroes of Snake Island are known across the globe. The proud warriors of Mariupol will inspire generations and generations to come.

And soon - I have no doubt- we will see the triumph of hope over fear. Because you show the world, that no amount of terror can intimidate and that bombs will never destroy pride and they will never destroy dignity.

The EU and the world has seen : you are the defenders of your country. But you are not fighting only to protect your homes and your territory. You are fighting for what we all believe in. Freedom. Democracy. The rule of law. And here, in Ukraine, these values are not buzzwords; they are being fought for, because you know that without them, there is nothing else.

The European Union was created to interlink the destinies of the nation states of Europe so that they could no longer engage in the kind of conflict that led, in less than thirty years, to two world wars. The European Union is a project for peace. But even above that, it is a project about freedom.

And let me say that Ukraine is Europe.

These are sad and tragic times. So many Ukrainians have lost their lives, you have lost family members, relatives and friends. Our thoughts are first of all with all of you. And please believe me, when I say that the European Parliament, the European Union and the people of Europe Stand With Ukraine.

Now words, they can inspire. And words can sometimes change the world. But the world also needs action. And the world also needs compassion. And I am here to convey that message of support and hope, that we will not abandon Ukraine. And that we will not ever let down our guard.

Mariupol is a town I have never visited, but it is the name of a town that I will never ever forget. The shelling of a maternity ward and the killing of children is an act that will go down in infamy. It is an act of inhumanity that sums up the nature of the threat that you have risen to face down. And we will never forget that has happened there. Ever.

Now, let me make three promises to you.

First of all, this invasion of your country puts Russia in direct confrontation with Europe, the international community and the rules-based world order. And it is not something that we will let Putin do unchallenged. We need more and harder sanctions. We will hold those responsible accountable for what they have committed here.

Second, the European Union recognises Ukraine’s European ambitions and your aspirations to be a candidate country for accession. And I stand before all of you here to say, that you can count on me, you can count on the European Parliament in supporting Ukraine’s path in achieving this goal. We know what blood was spilt to get here. And we will not let you down.

And we know more than ever that Ukraine looks to the European Union as its destination. We will respond with honesty and with hope. Every country has its own path - but the European Union future of Ukraine should never be in doubt.

Thirdly, we will take care of your families who are forced to flee, until the day they can safely return to their homes and rebuild their lives. And we will help you to rebuild your cities and your towns when this illegal, unprovoked and unjustified invasion is over. We have already provided assistance : financial, military and humanitarian. This will continue and this will increase. We will create the Ukraine Solidarity Trust Fund and organise an International Donors Conference, to help rebuild. Because this attack on your homeland has changed everything.
You did not invite this invasion. Nor did you provoke it. You did not seek a confrontation. But you have risen to meet this moment that is testament to the greatness of a people, to your courage, to your strength of character.

Now, my call is for the Europe Union to meet this moment with the same vigour. Because this must be our whatever-it-takes moment.

The rules-based order of the world remains strong. Putin miscalculated not only the courage and resistance of your country, but the strength of the democratic order. He fundamentally mistook our debates for weakness. And he has paid an unprecedented cost. Our sanctions hurt and we must go further still.

Millions of your country women and men have fled this country. Millions more are internally displaced and are expected to make their way to other European countries. We must be ready - but more importantly we are willing to do what is necessary to provide a future without fear for those arriving at our borders. And that willingness will remain steadfast. And it will never wane.

The face of Europe, we will show, will continue to be one that is of open hearts and open homes - a tangible expression of our shared European way, where we match compassion with strength.

We need to re-double our efforts to reduce our energy dependencies on the Kremlin. And I want to see a moment when Europe is completely free and secure with our energy supplies.

In this moment of crisis, we need to remember that energy is – and has always been - political. Russia has understood this for years. But so have you.

Europe’s target must be towards a future of zero gas from Russia. Zero gas. This is ambitious but it is necessary.

Because the bottom line is that: we should not, in consuming Kremlin energy, indirectly fund the bombs falling on your homes. And we will speed up our efforts to make sure that this happens sooner rather than later.

Allow me a word on the information war that we are facing. Not only do we need to bolster, strengthen our cyber-defences but we need to keep pushing back against the narrative that confronting Putin makes Europe somehow anti-Russia. Russians are standing up to Putin - and there are many - despite the threat of jail, they are on the right side of history. They are on our side.

Let me end by quoting Jonathan Sacks who said “It’s hard to defeat fear in the name of hope; it needs enormous courage. Yet as our powers of destruction grow even greater, we need that courage even more.”

And in the words of your national poet Taras Shevchenko “Keep fighting - you are sure to win”.

You have the courage.

Ukraine has that courage.

We are with you today, we will be with you tomorrow and we will never ever leave your side.

Slava Ukraini.

Ukraine Invasion: Part 17
Swipe left for the next trending thread