Gustav C. Gressel @GresselGustav
1/ So, again a tweet replaciong comment, trying to wrap up where we are in the war. Last week I did an @ecfr podcast on this.
It is April 1st, and this is an important draft date for the Russian army. Why does this matter for the war in Ukraine? New conscripts are not sent to battle,
2/ but as the term of service is 12 month, those who got called in spring 2021 have left/will leave the armed forces as ready trained soldier. Or could apply for a contract (24month) to serve as contract soldiers and be sent to Ukraine.
Last year's spring draft was 134000 men.
3/ Most conscripts serve in the land forces, this again is what is needed right now.
Russian forces have taken heavy casualties (roughly 2/3 of what Ukraine claims may be considered as real), so roughly 12000 dead, and 2-3 times the number in wounded.
4/ This means many of the forces committed in February 2022 are now so under-strength that they need to be taken out of the action and re-grouped or re-established. This is taking place right now and explains the operative pause of the Russian armed forces.
[RTB: so let me get this straight - the 'tactical withdrawal' has fallen at exactly the beaucratic moment the 12 month conscription was up... And thats the reason for them going back to Belarus and Russia. They won't be going to Donbass cos their contract is up!]
5/ It also means Russia is most vulnerable now, and Ukraine makes use of it as much as it can.
The routing of Russian forces around Kyiv was a good example. Russians have prepared defensive lines, and I don't think they wanted to give up all this terrain.
6/ Even if capturing Kyiv would not be possible anymore, this terrain could have been "sold" in ceasfire talks against other concessions. Ukraine would not want its capital close to the front, or a frozen "contact line". But it's gone now. A Ukraine victory.
7/ But the war is far from over. In the East, Russia took Izyum after heavy fighting. Further offensives to come, especially if further forces were created inside Russia.
Personnel is the key ressource short in supply. There is enough material in the Russian armed forces, ...
8/ ... and there is enough money to spend. Indeed pushing Russia out of the war by sanctions has failed.
I would argue for caution if Russia would be "satisfied" with Donbas alone. So far, statements on concentrating on Donbas come from the General Staff, not from Putin.
9/ Putin may still think there is more to be achieved. If Ukraine runs out of supplies faster than the Russia armed forces, the latter could still press for victory, despite their poor performance.
Russia missile campaign has shifted towards degrading Ukraine sustainability ...
[RTB which of course it would do, if your permenant army / airforce were filling in the gaps whilst you wanted for the next rotation of green conscripts on the ground at the 1st April changeover period - cos you can't possibly advance]
10/ ... striking oil depots, industy producing ATGW, ammunition, aircraft maintannence.
And better coordinated strikes to degrade Ukraine air-defences, especially Buk-M1 and S-300.
11/ Resupply from the West becomes the essential life-line for Ukraine, and every strike makes it more dependent on it.
The West is delivering, but on certain key items decisions to switch from used Soviet material to something we can deliver on a sustainable basis will have ...
[RTB: so thats when you might now get Belarus to go for Lviv - at the moment youve got your new conscripts up to the border. When the ground conditions are much better and the mud is gone]
12/ ... to be made soon.
Air defence is a case in point. Training and logistical preparations take time. If we want to deliver something once our own supplies of S-300 run dry, we have to make decisions now.
Ukrainians have requested NASAMS, which is a good choice.
13/ I hope a decision is made soon, and we will be able to use some of the pledged 🇪🇺 funds on it. But time is essential.
Otherwise, maintaining Ukraine mechanised reserves is key. A lot of attention is paid to infantry with light AT weapons. Infantry can hold terretory ...
14/ ... especially urban terrain. But in order to prevent cities from being encircled, Ukraine has used its armoured maneuvre formations to repell attacks in the open, or remove Russian forces from key positions.
Maintaing this capability is key to hold out against further attacks.
15/ So again, what does Ukraine need? Tanks, artillery, armoured personnnel carriers, and a lot of ammunition for it.
Then again, switching to platforms that can be delivered on a more sustainable basis would require decisions now.
16/ I guess Russian offensives will pick up steam in 1-2 weeks, depending on the availability of new contractees and materiel. UA may survive this into the next operative pause, but then?
There is no willingness to apply harsher sanctions and through Russia out of the war.
17/ So a war of attrition is unavoidable.
MUCH in this to unpick....