Dr Ian Garner @irgarner
Does it matter that Russia seems to be losing the war big time?
Russia spent the first 6 months of World War 2 being annihilated. If Putin pushes the WW2 narrative, total failure in these early weeks may not matter: sacrifice can be interpreted as essential for a bigger victory.
In the next few months, we’ll see how prepared Russians really are to relive World War 2. They’ve done the costumes and parades, they’ve watched the old war movies, but are they ready to pay a huge price?
The government is increasingly telling Russians that the next while will be tough at home and abroad. They’ll have to give up consumer goods, say goodbye to friends and family denounced as “traitors”, and witness more and more soldiers buried.
Yet if the narrative is as persuasive and embedded as many - including me - suspect, crisis and pain may be explained away by many Russians as not just acceptable but necessary to bring about an epic victory.
If that’s right, don’t expect to see riots in the streets any time soon. Of course, it may be wrong: perhaps the power of myth has little hold over Russians, but don’t underestimate the power of religious belief & faith when it comes to motivating people and explaining bad news.
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World War Two was a war of survival, surrounded by a powerful single narrative, a clear goal, and a defined end point.
Russian ain't got none of the above for this one
This isn't survival, narratives are myriad and garbled, and no one knows the end goal
Dr Ian Garner @irgarner
That’s what we see in the West, but that’s not what Russians are seeing. They are hearing that this is an existential crisis. That if they don’t fight inside and outside Russia, ethnic Russians will be eliminated.