Ukraine-invasion-part-16

[PestorPeston]

Warsaw Russian is letting out a lot of smoke - there has been no decision on who among them will be the next pontiff.

Biden is going there Friday

Is Boris Johnson the designated survivor?

Who the heck let me be in charge?

The double think is just kafka-esque. I hated reading that the first time, now the world is living it

twitter.com/canadaun/status/1504464863510335488?s=21

This???

Bloody China voting yes … that’s not a good look.

@DrBlackbird

Bloody China voting yes … that’s not a good look.

Depends how you look at it.

It was a pretty meaningless vote in the sense it was never going to get much support.

So it's a way of keeping a middle ground of signalling support for Russia in a way that's not meaningful enough for the West to be overly concerned about (unlike financial support, weapons etc).

I was talking to a friend today who said she thinks we are being orchestrated into begging for world war three.

What do you all think?

I don’t know why they would do this if that is the case?

https://twitter.com/trenttelenko/status/1506767677972525073?s=21

"If it isn't true, it ought to be:

“Ukrainian military intelligence reported that Russian forces are preparing to block the Kerch Bridge to prevent Russians from leaving Crimea.[16] The GUR claims that this measure is a response to panic among Russians in Crimea, "

@Jisforjelly

I was talking to a friend today who said she thinks we are being orchestrated into begging for world war three.

What do you all think?

I don’t know why they would do this if that is the case?

What does she mean, that Putin is manipulating the west into direct conflict? It would seem like an odd way to go about it. Because either he would anticipate a nuclear conflict, in which case manipulation would be unnecessary because there would be no one left to care who started it. Or he anticipates conventional warfare, in which case why use up so many of your military resources in Ukraine first?

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-23

"Russian mobilization efforts are likely becoming urgent given Russian losses in the war. The Wall Street Journal cites an unnamed NATO official claiming that Russia has lost as many as 40,000 troops killed, wounded, or missing of the roughly 190,000 deployed to invade Ukraine.[2] That assessment, which is plausible given previous estimates of Russian combat deaths, must be considered in the context of the assessment offered by an unnamed Department of Defense official on March 21 that Russia had committed a high proportion of its available battalion tactical groups to the war already.[3] The protracting pause of Russian offensive operations in Ukraine and increasing anecdotal reporting of breakdowns in the morale and capability of Russian combat units all accord with these assessments. These reports and assessments collectively suggest that Russia may not be able to find new combat power with which to regain offensive momentum for weeks or even months."

@Jisforjelly

I was talking to a friend today who said she thinks we are being orchestrated into begging for world war three.

What do you all think?

I don’t know why they would do this if that is the case?

I can't fathom that reasoning tbh.

@shreddednips No she thinks the media is pushing for the start of WW3 as they did in WW1 talking about ‘The Hun’ eating babies and so on.

She thinks the US have a part to play and have done for years before this conflict as they’re set to earn big money from it and it turns attention away from failing western economies.

Not my words btw, these are hers.

@Jisforjelly

I was talking to a friend today who said she thinks we are being orchestrated into begging for world war three.

What do you all think?

I don’t know why they would do this if that is the case?

I think your friend needs to spend less time reading conspiracy theories

[quote Jisforjelly]@shreddednips No she thinks the media is pushing for the start of WW3 as they did in WW1 talking about ‘The Hun’ eating babies and so on.

She thinks the US have a part to play and have done for years before this conflict as they’re set to earn big money from it and it turns attention away from failing western economies.

Not my words btw, these are hers.[/quote]
How does she think the US will earn big money from this? If they go to war they'll be hemorrhaging money - as will all the other nations who join them.

I wouldn't listen to much your friend says, tbh.

[quote Jisforjelly]@shreddednips No she thinks the media is pushing for the start of WW3 as they did in WW1 talking about ‘The Hun’ eating babies and so on.

She thinks the US have a part to play and have done for years before this conflict as they’re set to earn big money from it and it turns attention away from failing western economies.

Not my words btw, these are hers.[/quote]
Well, assuming she believes that the atrocities reported in the news are accurate and hasn't fallen for the Kremlin's lies, I can't see why she feels that's manipulative. It's just factual reporting. The fact that it makes many people feel like something should be done isn't the media's responsibility- it's a perfectly natural response to seeing innocent people being killed. I can't see how anyone would have anything to gain financially from WW3.

[quote Jisforjelly]@shreddednips No she thinks the media is pushing for the start of WW3 as they did in WW1 talking about ‘The Hun’ eating babies and so on.

She thinks the US have a part to play and have done for years before this conflict as they’re set to earn big money from it and it turns attention away from failing western economies.

Not my words btw, these are hers.[/quote]
To add - all the media are pushing for is people to click on their crappy headlines to generate them advertising revenue. They do this by posting breathless "WILL THERE BE A NUCLEAR WAR?!?!?!?!?!" style shit all the time. Doesn't mean they're pushing for war, it just means they're prioritising income generation over responsible reporting.

Agree toastfiend. I've seen loads of clickbaity titles popping up, it's just to get people to read them.

Jack Detsch @jackdetsch
NEW: Ukrainian forces are successfully counterattacking Russian troops near Kyiv and have likely retaken the towns of Makariv & Moschun near capital: British Defense Intel

🇬🇧 assesses there is "realistic possibility" that 🇺🇦 forces can now encircle 🇷🇺 units in Bucha & Irpin

UK assessment: Russian forces near Kyiv are already facing considerable supply and morale issues, and strong Ukrainian counter attacks could disrupt 🇷🇺 ability to resume offensive on the capital.

@shreddednips

Agree toastfiend. I've seen loads of clickbaity titles popping up, it's just to get people to read them.

There was a tweet i saw today which sums things up.

Ben Judah @b_judah
Noting that several editors have told me that “interest in Ukraine” is starting to drop off on their metrics. The big challenge for Kyiv begins now. How can it fight public fatigue across the West in a long war?

Also why this thread is quieter. Its not about who said what. Its about it being just another story and just another dead Ukrainian.

Also why this thread is quieter. Its not about who said what. Its about it being just another story and just another dead Ukrainian.

Indeed. Both compassion and anxiety fatigue are being replaced by a new "normal".

We have lost our sense of perspective and also our attention span (thanks to social media) is easily distracted.

It's pretty easy for people to replace their anxiety of people having to eat their pets to survive in Mariupol with the lack of economic support the govt announced today in the face of unprecedented inflation since the 1950' and what it means to them. That is the outrage of the moment.

Darwinism in action.

@RedToothBrush agree with this. Its a horrible thought but as someone said in a previous thread, we have such short attention spans.

Look at the issues with the Tonga volcano or the Afghanistan crisis. Both will still be causing devastation in those communities but they drop out the news as the public stop clicking on the media's links about it.

I'm not saying this will just drop out the news. However we've even seen over the last few days a big increase in other stories getting airtime now as opposed to 24hour Ukraine coverage.

Zelenskey spoke about a worry that countries will start to get sanction fatigue which we already saw with Renault stating production again (before stopping)

If this does turn out to be a war that lasts months or even years its only natural that interest in it will drop. I really hope it doesn't and people stick by Ukraine as long as they need to. I worry it may be part of putins plan to drag this out.

Just want to say that although I've made only a handful of posts on these excellent threads, it's only because I mostly wouldn't know what I was talking about and prefer to leave the talking to the people posting who do know stuff! But I most definitely haven't lost interest, and in fact on a long phone call with a friend tonight spent at least an hour discussing the situation and what little we understand of the background. Afghanistan was mentioned when we talked a bit about 'why now'. I know people who aren't talking about it, and even someone who isn't contacting me suddenly because they're determined to avoid even thinking about Ukraine. But no, I don't understand how anyone can not sustain concern and interest, for as long as it takes. It's enormous. And a lot of my thinking recently has been along the lines of why have I avoided getting this emotionally preoccupied with Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen? Iraq and Palestine I've lost some sleep over and I'm trying to figure out why I've been so selective. I've read comments in recent weeks suggesting it's racism, and it probably is to some degree, which is hard to swallow. Nevertheless, this particular conflict is really opening my eyes, and my heart, so better late than never.

Thought this was interesting 'A team of US national security advisers has been quietly holding mock drills to workshop different potential responses if Russia should use chemical, biological or nuclear weapons, according to the New York Times.
The group is also holding classified sessions to determine a response in case Moscow expands its war into other neighbouring territories, the NY Times reports.
And they are discussing ways to help European allies as they struggle to accept the millions of refugees leaving Ukraine.
The so-called White House "tiger team" was formed in October, according to the Washington Post.'

Firstly that this has been going on since October....

However we are seeing more and more countries begin to talk about nuclear weapons/war. The above and France putting out more subs earlier I feel is a worrying development especially since earlier it was mentioned by someone (German I think?) that the nuclear war sabre rattling needed to stop! Seems something has spooked them in the last couple of days

Perhaps its just to send a message to Putin that France is ready whatever may come. Or to have the subs hidden and not in plain sight and vulnerable to sabotage. Or they're just feeling on edge like everyone.

I find it very surprising that the UK is cutting defence spending, really not the best time for that! I'm glad Finland is adding emergency funding to our military now. Just checked and we only have 55 fighter jets, 64 new ones are ordered but they won't be ready for years yet.

@elephantmarchingin

Do you think something has spooked them or are they just playing him at his own game re: the sabre rattling?

A responsible government is constantly preparing itself for a range of possibilities. There was a load of conspiracies when it came out that the UKG had been pandemic planning on 2019 but there is no point in planning after the fact, doesn’t mean its imminent just that the perception is that it’s currently a credible enough risk to plan for. There will be plenty of other planning for ‘black swan’ events going at any one time.

Re. the US ‘war games’, there was an article right towards the start of all this about these sorts of analyses having gone on in the States. I think the Guardian had it on 6th March, but it was borrowed from a journal elsewhere on something like 2nd March. So I don’t think this is brand new, and the White House taskforce itself was set up last year.