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Original poster

Ukraine-invasion-part-15

999 replies

Ijsbear · 20/03/2022 16:14

Next part.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
15
prettybird · 22/03/2022 08:29

[quote MrsLargeEmbodied]@prettybird
you have been beaten to it, upthread[/quote]

I know Grin - I was trying to find my old links again, but MN "lost" my draft, which is why I changed it to letting people look it up themselves Wink.

But I've posted about it before, both on this thread and earlier ones Confused

MrsLargeEmbodied · 22/03/2022 08:30

putin has threatened nuclear
he holds the cards over everyone

Alexandra2001 · 22/03/2022 08:36

@MrsLargeEmbodied

putin has threatened nuclear he holds the cards over everyone
He also did this in 2009, in 2014 and again in 2022.

This logic also applies if he attacks Poland and then Germany "back off Nato or i use my nuclear"

We may as well pack up and give him the old Warsaw Pact countries now and prevent devastation and loss of life.

prettybird · 22/03/2022 08:39

The Montreux Convention has stood since 1936. If we, as the West, want to complain - correctly - about Putin breaking International Law, then we shouldn't then break it ourselves. Confused

It would also mean the exact thing that people have been expressing concern about: bringing Turkey - and therefor NATO - directly into the conflict ShockSad

MagicFox · 22/03/2022 08:42

Here's a good thread about the flawed logic of 'ignore the nukes' / we're just letting him do what he wants threat twitter.com/radiofreetom/status/1506006857886089217?s=21

Alexandra2001 · 22/03/2022 08:45

@prettybird

The Montreux Convention has stood since 1936. If we, as the West, want to complain - correctly - about Putin breaking International Law, then we shouldn't then break it ourselves. Confused

It would also mean the exact thing that people have been expressing concern about: bringing Turkey - and therefor NATO - directly into the conflict ShockSad

Black Sea is international waters, not sovereign, so you are saying that Putin gets to say where we can sail in the world now?

This is why we are in this mess, all the emojis in the world don't change this logic.

Goodbye Odesa, any Ukrainians reading this, need to get out now, the West will stand by and let you all be killed/shipped off/ your children sold as per Mariupol.

DGRossetti · 22/03/2022 08:50

Black Sea is international waters, not sovereign, so you are saying that Putin gets to say where we can sail in the world now?

Hasn't China been doing the same ?

notimagain · 22/03/2022 08:54

Black Sea is international waters, not sovereign, so you are saying that Putin gets to say where we can sail in the world now?

No that’s not what people are saying…they are pointing out that in this specific case to enter the Black Sea from the Med you need to go through sovereign waters..so in a way it’s Turkey that has the say…how much Putin is leaning on them?

I do have to agree with you to some extent when you say that the West tends to get tied up in having to be seen to be obeying treaties…but I’m not keen on the whole world following Putin’s example of rule breaking either.

RoseAndRose · 22/03/2022 08:54

Black Sea is international waters, not sovereign, so you are saying that Putin gets to say where we can sail in the world now?

No.

They're saying that we are parties to an international agreement over passage in and out of the Black Sea during times of war.

Yes Putin's Russia started the invasion. But it's our choice to honour the treaty. If we didn't, what follows? Turkey deciding for itself?

The Turkish Straits are not international waters.

(or have I got that hopelessly wrong)

Alexandra2001 · 22/03/2022 08:55

@DGRossetti

Black Sea is international waters, not sovereign, so you are saying that Putin gets to say where we can sail in the world now?

Hasn't China been doing the same ?

To a point yes but US ships still sail in disputed waters and there isn't the imperative of saving people from disaster.

The UK sailed a warship through the Straits of Taiwan.

OriginalFloorboards · 22/03/2022 09:03

Thank you for such an informative thread. I’ve been watching from the sidelines for a while now. This is my first post. I thought at first the peace talks were the answer, but I realise now that Putin clearly has no intention of backing down or doing this. This thread has made me feel less anxious by putting things into context. More so than most news items. Thank you.

sageintegrite · 22/03/2022 09:07

@Tuba437

I've just seen this morning Zelenskey saying he's ready to compromise on Nato with Putin. But won't talk about crimea and donbass until a ceasefire is taking place.

I thought this may end up the case. Hopefully Russia may agree. Putin can still claim a victory on the Nato issue and the bloodshed can stop. Not that I think an agreement would happen anytime soon on the disputed areas. Guess maybe the Russians could just retreat to those areas while talks are taking place.

Guess it all depends on if Putin believes his invasion is currently successful which we all know it isn't.

I just don't think Zelensky is being realistic here. The war (Russia said) was about both NATO and the activities of Azov towards Russians in Ukraine. The situation with Azov is going to be even more dangerous now. I think that this is an international issue.

The agreement should also cover what happens to the Ukrainians taken to Russia.

Azov is expanded and armed in Ukraine, and I do not believe that Russia pulling out without more clarity and honesty from all sides about issues in Ukraine is going to help now. I think the US needs to join in negotiations and it needs to be as much about bringing stability to the area as it is about ceasefire. All sides need to agree on a plan of action.

I don't agree with Putin going in but for those posters saying "don't believe him he lies" you are being ridiculous. The US and the UK do NOT have the moral high ground here and them trying to act as though we do and we have the right to tell India to "get off the fence" is ridiculous.

Zelensky's approval ratings were very low before the war. He said he was no longer interested in NATO and agreed in relation to East Donbas on 9 March. Today is the 22nd. I think history will judge him and the US here unfavourably, in the light of the Azov situation, as well as judging Putin going in unfavourably.

sageintegrite · 22/03/2022 09:12

*you trying not them trying

Alexandra2001 · 22/03/2022 09:14

@RoseAndRose

Black Sea is international waters, not sovereign, so you are saying that Putin gets to say where we can sail in the world now?

No.

They're saying that we are parties to an international agreement over passage in and out of the Black Sea during times of war.

Yes Putin's Russia started the invasion. But it's our choice to honour the treaty. If we didn't, what follows? Turkey deciding for itself?

The Turkish Straits are not international waters.

(or have I got that hopelessly wrong)

Although the black sea is international waters, only warships from the countries along its coastline can stay more than three weeks under the Montreux Convention of 1936 (many more provisions)

Its convenient to abide by the letter of the law over this but then chose not to honour the pledge given to Ukraine over its security if they gave up nuclear weapons.

MagicFox · 22/03/2022 09:20

Latest translation of supposed leaked FSB docs : twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1506115252802318339?s=21

borntobequiet · 22/03/2022 09:21

US ships still sail in disputed waters

The Turkish Straits aren’t disputed waters.

prettybird · 22/03/2022 09:25

The Bosporus is only 700m wide and Turkey is on both sides of it (the Dardanelles are only a bit wider - but again with Turkey on both sides).

So which country wants to trigger a conflict with Turkey by deliberately sending a war ship through? Hmm

That's why there is a convention governing transit. Confused

DGRossetti · 22/03/2022 09:26

The Bosporus is only 700m wide and Turkey is on both sides of it (the Dardanelles are only a bit wider - but again with Turkey on both sides).

Used to be protected with huge chains that could keep ships out during the Ottoman days (if not before ...)

K4fkaesque · 22/03/2022 09:27

@Alexandra2001

I don't know what you think will be achieved by getting US warships into the Black Sea? Any direct conflict with Russian vessels will be the same as US/NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Alexandra2001 · 22/03/2022 09:29

@prettybird I didn't say that, i said the US carries huge influence over Trukey, a fellow NATO member, your argument would only stand if we had the Americans at the straits trying to get in and Turkey saying NO.

We aren't even trying.

Original poster
Ijsbear · 22/03/2022 09:30

@MrsLargeEmbodied

putin has threatened nuclear he holds the cards over everyone
Its very far from all or nothing though.

The moment people mention nuclear, the stress and fear levels spike real hard. It's great for increasing panic but it's simply not likely to be a sudden all out war

And he holds 1/5 of the nuclear cards. There's China, the USA and several other countries. So you can say that these countries hold the cards over him.

This is frankly scaremongering territory.

OP posts:
Alexandra2001 · 22/03/2022 09:33

[quote K4fkaesque]@Alexandra2001

I don't know what you think will be achieved by getting US warships into the Black Sea? Any direct conflict with Russian vessels will be the same as US/NATO boots on the ground in Ukraine.[/quote]
You happy to see 100s of '000s killed Odesa and half the world starving because it can't get Wheat?
the Arab spring was triggered by hyper food inflation, 40 countries rely on Ukrainian grain.

But if we take your argument to its conclusion, that we cannot patrol international waters, then scrap our military, waste of money.

DuncinToffee · 22/03/2022 09:35

CNN Natasha Bertrand
After days of fighting, Ukrainian forces have regained control of the city of Makariv, west of Kyiv, the Armed Forces of Ukraine said today. Makariv has sustained significant damage from ongoing Russian airstrikes.

Original poster
Ijsbear · 22/03/2022 09:36

@MrsLargeEmbodied

putin has threatened nuclear he holds the cards over everyone
But if we take your argument to its conclusion, that we cannot patrol international waters, then scrap our military, waste of money.

Again, it's not black and white. It's a balance.

OP posts:
sageintegrite · 22/03/2022 09:41

Issues around wheat and the Black Sea wouldn't remain issues if world leaders did what they were supposed to do and negotiate.

Like OP has said herself there is no black and white about this.