Ukraine-invasion-part-15

[Ijsbear]

Next part.

From the Odesa journal...

"The twenty-sixth day of the heroic resistance of the Ukrainian people to the russian military invasion continues.

Occupying troops operating in Ukraine are in dire need of repairing and rebuilding damaged weapons and military equipment.

According to the available information, due to the lack of receipts of foreign-made components, the work of the enterprises of the Uralzavod Corporation and the Chelyabinsk Tractor Plant has been suspended. These companies specialize in the manufacture and repair of tanks and other armored vehicles for the armed forces of the russian federation.

Cases of desertion among the personnel of the occupying forces continue to be recorded. Thus, in the area of the settlement of Gavronshchyna, Makariv district, Kyiv oblast, a group of Russian invaders seized the cars of local residents, changed into looted civilian clothes and drove towards the border with the republic of belarus.

Continuing illegal activities in the temporarily occupied territories of the Zaporizhia region, in some settlements, the invaders are making covert preparations for the elections of the pro-russian administration of districts and cities.

To organize the so-called “russian humanitarian convoys”, the occupiers concentrated in the port of Berdyansk a column of white KAMAZ tilts trucks of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the russian federation. Such trucks were used for covert transportation of ammunition to the temporarily occupied territories of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. This may indicate the intention of the occupiers to organize similar “humanitarian convoys” in the Zaporizhya region.

On the territory of one of the settlements of this region, the enemy deployed a point for the repair of armoured vehicles with the involvement of equipment and workers of defence enterprises of the russian federation. Up to 20 units of armored vehicles are under restoration.

In Nova Kakhovka, Kherson region, the occupiers check documents at city checkpoints to identify and detain local residents who participated in the anti-terrorist / joint Forces Operation.

In addition to heavy casualties during the fighting, there is also a high death rate among the badly wounded russian invaders.

Let’s win together!
Glory to Ukraine!"

@Shuuu

The only thing they’d worry me potentially if their undying love for their leader/country. They’d make any sacrifice necessary. Is their a point to brainwashing where their is no return. Or does it appear to be “undying love” through fear?! But I do agree Kim would not want them to be exposed to western ways or any level of freedom/democracy

There is some really good defector books to read, if you are interested, NK is a bit of an obsession of mine, studied it a bit at university and continued reading about it after that! They do have mobile phones, but it's all internal calls for ordinary people unless you have a smuggled in sim, as some do to keep in contact with people on the Chinese side. A decent amount of people in North Korea know the outside world, via smuggled DVDs/usbs especially those in towns bordering China.

@SaltedEggplant thank you. I’m very interested too. I’ve done some research. I have seen an article about a Chinese student who went to study in NK, it was eye opening.

Thanks for that

A group of young Ukrainian yachtsmen and their coach tried to block Abramovich's superyacht from docking in Bodrum earlier today. They only failed because the Turkish police (boo!) intervened.

Meanwhile, Dmitry Peskov's daughter, Liza, living in Paris, has told a journalist that she thinks sanctions are unfair as she loves to travel and is a citizen of the world. As well as being a former intern for a right-wing French MEP (strange how these denazifying types seem to be friends with a load of nazis) she has in the past visited the Kadyrovs in Chechnya and given a speech as part of a delegation to a Crimean shipyard.

With the temporary occupation of Deripaska's mansion in London as well, I wonder if we're going to see more of a backlash against the kleptocrat class of people?

@Hillsmakeyoustrong

It is rumoured that the shopping centre in Kyiv was bombed because a person took a picture of the military personnel and trucks stationed there, from a higher vantage point, and then posted it on their social media. Same night it was bombed. If that's true then it wasn't because of russian spies, drones etc but can you imagine the burden on that person?

I finally tracked down again the UAV video of this I mentioned upthread.

ELINT News (normally fairly good and objective at analysis of this sort of thing) tweeted a Russian sourced video earlier today that appears to show that the Ukranians basically screwed up - they didn't realise that one of their MLRS was imaged in operation and that it was then followed back to base - the mall.

Others looking at this also seem to think this might be a rare instance where we can probably take the Russian version of events at face value... hope link works, apologies if it doesn't:

twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1505942188865245195?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

I think there are some unanswered questions.

Some thoughts about what could happen (this is more theory than anything)

Wheat. If there is no wheat, then lots of young foreign men will become both desparate and available. Men for wheat becomes an equation that may appear. Remember young hungry men protest or riot.

That would mean he just has to control the population at home rather than send to war. And he's radicalising them. And he's arresting the difficult ones. There is a growing fear within the country. And of course, unemployed jobless desparate men look for work... Any work. Young men are going to be squeezed between poverty, war and fear. Meanwhile the elderly who remember the soviet era are fully behind the idea of the war (they don't have to fight it of course) and don't mind the queuing in the same way as the young.

Then there are questions about how effectively sanctions are working. I saw a long thread today suggesting that the ruble hadn't crashed as much as expected yet. Part of this was explained because Russia had managed to pay its debt on time which was unexpected, (possibly through gold sell off) but it also raised the question over whether Russia was finding ways to get around sanctions by various methods and loopholes - both legal and illegal. And whether the West can tackle this. Noting stuff like there isn't a complete ban on Russian gas and oil even in Europe.
twitter.com/jeuasommenulle/status/1505962132676001796

Whilst Putin did plan for sanctions, he didn't expect them to be as extensive and his planning is thought to have not gone as far as he needed to, in order to fully protect Russia. But he is adapting and seems to be finding solutions or blackmailing and bullying others into a solution for him.

And political events could tip things. Sanctions rely on unity and they rely on the western public not revolting over huge hikes to fuel. Political instability - tipped by the pressure of refugees and inflation are a real risk.

There are a lot of moving parts that we don't know how they will settle yet. Putin might gamble on one or more of these various types of things to help him prop up his state and enable him to fight a prolonged war.

Apparently a Ukrainian MP has been on newsnight saying that Boris and the UK government has helped them more than any other nation.

Is that true?

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10637579/America-ditch-25-tariffs-British-steel-big-boost-hopes-trade-deal.html
America is to ditch 25% tariffs on British steel in big boost for hopes of trade deal

The Post Brexit British Trade Deal with the US looks like its suddenly no longer likely to be 'Back of the Queue'...

Keep eyes on this... and other trade deals with the EU.

@AgnesWestern

Apparently a Ukrainian MP has been on newsnight saying that Boris and the UK government has helped them more than any other nation.

Is that true?

Is it true?

Well, the obvious thought to counter that is 'why would he lie?'

If you can't find satisfactory explanations for that nor evidence for how the UK has supported, then you have your answer.

So why would he lie? Why do you think he's a liar?

Let's say you're an impoverished Syrian or Libyan drafted into the Russian army for a war in Europe and you're paid a pittance (if at all): wouldn't you be looking to desert at the first opportunity? The Russians are going to have to be ruthless with these bought-in troops.

Phil Stewart @phildstewart
Biden says Putin is weighing use of chemical weapons in Ukraine - Reuters

The US's intelligence has been very very accurate...

@RedToothBrush great post. Deep down I’m hoping Putin doesn’t use the sanctions on the negotiating table. Give this back/withdraw from here & we will lift this sanction etc. He deserves to pay the full price. I understand in the long run it’ll still hit him hard, it’s not just about liberating Ukraine, it’s the innocent lives lost, families wiped out. The national mourning that hasn’t even begun yet. The people who died slowly trapped under rubble, the women dying whilst giving birth. But you are absolutely right, hes planned for this, to what degree we don’t know. But Zelensky was correct, Ukraine will never forget, never forgive. It’s not just about rebuilding Ukraine & going home. The mental/emotional/physical impact is going to take a very long time to recover from this.

@AlecTrevelyan006

Whatever ‘victory’ Russia achieves now will not have been worth the cost to them. They have lost far more than they can ever win. And it’s mainly Putin’s fault.

It's worth it to Putin though. He cares not for ordinary Russian soldiers and their families. The 'cost' to him personally is nothing.

“EsmaCannonball

Let's say you're an impoverished Syrian or Libyan drafted into the Russian army for a war in Europe and you're paid a pittance (if at all): wouldn't you be looking to desert at the first opportunity? The Russians are going to have to be ruthless with these bought-in troops.“

I am sorry as I cannot remember where I saw it, and can’t stop to look now - quite possibly Kalim Galeev - but for an impoverished Syrian it would not be a pittance.

@EsmaCannonball

Let's say you're an impoverished Syrian or Libyan drafted into the Russian army for a war in Europe and you're paid a pittance (if at all): wouldn't you be looking to desert at the first opportunity? The Russians are going to have to be ruthless with these bought-in troops.

Men are greedy. That simple.

Wagner is known for offering money that can only be dreamt of. Its a temptation many won't be able to resist. Its 'just one job then it changes my life forever'. Same logic that gambling is so popular with those with no other opportunities in life available to them.

There have been reports of troops coming behind the front lines to force matters due to low morale and shoot deserters already.

Hope makes people do crazy things.

You also have the prospect of authoritarian governments who need wheat rounding up undesirables and forcably shipping them to Russia, rather than have these men on their streets to cause trouble.

The Middle East and North Africa have a surplus of young men compared to Russia...

Anders Åslund @anders_aslund
"Russia provokes confrontation with NATO. On March 21, at 13:15 local time, a Russian bomber flew over Ukraine’s Volyn area and entered Poland’s airspace, editor-in-chief of Censor.net Yuriy Butusov said." (Ukraine Crisis Media Center).

The Kyiv Independent @KyivIndependent
Zelensky: "NATO should either say now that they are accepting us, or openly say they are not accepting us because they are afraid of Russia – which is true."

Source: Zelensky's interview to Suspilne, a Ukrainian public broadcaster.

Zelensky: "And then we need to calm down and say – ok, there are NATO member countries that can provide us security guarantees without a membership in NATO."

Source: Zelensky's interview to Suspilne, a Ukrainian public broadcaster.

Zelensky: "That's where the compromise exists. That's where the end of the war is."

Source: Zelensky's interview to Suspilne, a Ukrainian public broadcaster.

@AgnesWestern

Apparently a Ukrainian MP has been on newsnight saying that Boris and the UK government has helped them more than any other nation.

Is that true?

The UK military have been heavily involved in training Ukrainian forces since 2014. I would suggest that it's one of the reasons why the Ukrainian forces are now providing such a strong and well-disciplined resistance.

I don't imagine he's referring to the help given just in this war directly, but also more generally to the help that has been committed over a number of years that is now coming to play in this war.

The Wagner Group are known for doing terrible things to deserters. (It's one of those things I wish I hadn't come across.) Putin unleashing those absolute scum on the people of Ukraine is terrifying. In fact, I wonder if the endless stories about it are designed to terrify.

@RedToothBrush

Anders Åslund *@anders*_aslund "Russia provokes confrontation with NATO. On March 21, at 13:15 local time, a Russian bomber flew over Ukraine’s Volyn area and entered Poland’s airspace, editor-in-chief of Censor.net Yuriy Butusov said." (Ukraine Crisis Media Center).

Some are saying that this has been denied but I can't see anything reliable to confirm/deny either way.

www.thedailybeast.com/russian-state-tv-just-declared-war-on-arnold-schwarzenegger

Russian state television has denounced Arnold Schwarzenegger. It would be quite funny but the language being used shows Russians are being indoctrinated with the idea that the West wants to destroy them.

@RedToothBrush No I don’t think he’s a liar, I guess j should jabs worded the question differently. I didn’t realise we’d helped more than other countries have.

*I should have

@AgnesWestern

Apparently a Ukrainian MP has been on newsnight saying that Boris and the UK government has helped them more than any other nation.

Is that true?

Yes, true. I am very far from being a fan of Boris in any other respect, but his Churchill fetish did indeed deliver here. The British have been instrumental in training Ukrainian forces up, and are the ones to thank for the fact that Ukraine did not fall in the first 48 hours as expected. There's a lot of genuine goodwill towards the UK on the Ukrainian ground at the moment, and I hope that a moment comes that this debt is repaid (appreciate it sounds unlikely now).

@AgnesWestern

Apparently a Ukrainian MP has been on newsnight saying that Boris and the UK government has helped them more than any other nation.

Is that true?

I posted this on an earlier thread which might give some context in answering that question:

medium.com/voices-of-the-armed-forces/operation-orbital-explained-training-ukrainian-armed-forces-59405d32d604

In short British Forces have trained over 20k Ukrainian military personnel since the start of Operation Orbital in 2015. The U.K. were also the first country to supply anti tank weapons in significant volume.

It's also rumoured (though I can't find any legitimate confirmation of this - perhaps unsurprisingly) that the SAS have been involved in the training of Ukrainian elite units.

So yes, I think it's fair to say the U.K. has been a significant ally to Ukraine.