Ukraine Invasion Part 14

[MagicFox]

New thread

Apparently medals and citations created to be given to Russian soldiers in this war mention the 'occupation' of Kyiv and Lviv but the 'liberation' of Odesa. Whatever the Russians are planning for Odesa they will be claiming to liberate 'Russian-speaking peoples' and will want to permanently annexe it.

Re the rally I actually felt quite hopeful seeing it!

We are all dependant on this man's state of mind.
Would I rather him alone and raging, miserable with everyone against him.
Or still ticking along with something to live for?
Which one is less likely for him to press the buttons!

@DesdamonasHandkerchief

Putin will never again be able to get away with massing his massive military force on another countries border though, the whole "military exercises, nothing to see her, just going to pop home now" has been revealed for what it actually was a prelude to invasion. It's desperately sad that Ukraine is paying the price for the West's complacency but we have at least woken up to what an evil bastard Putin is and he will never be trusted again. If he tried the same tactics again I'm sure we'd be better prepared to assist a threatened country with weapons and aid before an invasion took place.

Showing my ignorance here but why is it okay for Putin to bring in 40,000 Syrian fighters and mobilise the military of puppet state Belarus but our hands are seemingly completely tied, to the extent that the government here had to retract Liz Truss's statement that ex military and those with some experience could go and support the Ukrainian forces if they so desired.

Technically it's illegal for a UK national to go and join a foreign military force that is not at war with us, prosecution and possible prison sentence would follow, although it's not a law that's been used really. So Liz Truss making that statement was not OK on that basis. No one can actually stop anyone going (apart from serving members of our armed forces). Different countries have different rules about this.

So in the bigger picture I'm hoping it's real.

@PaperTyger

Which posters? I've seen one.

There were a few early on, at least one, possibly two, said they had family in the contested region and we should be backing them joining Russia and not arming the Ukrainians to help their fight. Or words to that effect. Others we’re less subtle than megn here in justifying the war at least in that area. With name changes it’s possible it is all the same person/troll improving their tactics to seem less pro putin at least initially.

Denmark made the same comments about citizens going to fight

Have you got a link for that Esma? If reliable it's a straw in the wind that tends to support the view that Putin's negotiations at this point are not made in any sort of good faith.

Although striking medals now seems a little like counting his chickens before the eggs have hatched.

Technically it's illegal for a UK national to go and join a foreign military force that is not at war with us, prosecution and possible prison sentence would follow, although it's not a law that's been used really

I believe it has been in a few instances where ex-soldiers travelled to fight IS. Some sorry stories.

@EsmaCannonball

Apparently medals and citations created to be given to Russian soldiers in this war mention the 'occupation' of Kyiv and Lviv but the 'liberation' of Odesa. Whatever the Russians are planning for Odesa they will be claiming to liberate 'Russian-speaking peoples' and will want to permanently annexe it.

The black sea is international waters isn't it? with time limits on how long ships can stay there?

So why can't NATO provide a bulwark to Odesa? rotating countries navies, get round the 3 week limit or do we let Odesa become Mariupol mk2 ? which surely where it is heading.

The message we keep sending Putin is our weakness, the more we let him get away with, the more he will take.

Syrian armies in Ukraine? disastrous for Europe's long term security, these people wont go back home, having and what will Putin use them for... i hope ways are being looked at to stop these flights leaving Syria or arriving in Russia.

I think there is a convention that applies to the Black Sea whereby only naval ships from its coastal states can stay there.

@PaperTyger

Which posters? I've seen one.

megynhelena, only been posting on this thread

@PestorPeston

Strange how he’s gone from being miles from his trusted advisors to being in the middle of a large rally.

One theory regarding using old footage and cutting the speech a little was that the crowd was booing. I agree re the bulletproof vest.

@Ijsbear

Technically it's illegal for a UK national to go and join a foreign military force that is not at war with us, prosecution and possible prison sentence would follow, although it's not a law that's been used really

I believe it has been in a few instances where ex-soldiers travelled to fight IS. Some sorry stories.

And ex-British military went to fight in the Balkans, people from all over the world went to fight in the Spanish civil war. If the UK ever was to use that law they can only do so if the fighters return, which they may not.

UNICEF reporting that children fleeing Ukraine are at a high risk of child sexual exploitation and trafficking. This is an area where the UK and the rest of the world should be stepping in. Making sure that these poor people crossing the border are actually safe when they do so.

I’m late to this thread so don’t know if this was posted yet as still catching up.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60804949

"It became our turn to pick a colour," Mr Artemyev said when he was asked about the suits in a live-streamed press conference.
"We had accumulated a lot of yellow material so we needed to use it," he joked. "That's why we had to wear yellow."

I read a very interesting book on social media called the Hype Machine, a year ago. It had a very depressing section on Crimea and referenced how Putin had used social media and a small collective of separatists to create an illusion that the separatist movement was much bigger than it was. The MSM then picked up on the social media movements that had been orchestrated alongside attacks that had supposedly (not actually) been made on the Ukrainian side, to give an air of legitimacy to Putin's claims. It worked, the west sat back whilst borders were re-drawn for the first time since WW2. We must also remember that the language you speak does not necessarily inform your identity. Crimea was a test run and deserved a much stronger response at the time in my view. Putin likely was emboldened by our lack of response and believed the techniques and narrative he had created would have led to a much quicker victory in Ukraine.

Some good news here: www.worldathletics.org/competitions/world-athletics-indoor-championships/belgrade22/news/report/belgrade-22-day-two-mahuchikh-coleman-warner Yaroslava Mahuchikh emerged from the conflict raging in her homeland to take high jump gold.

@Igotjelly

UNICEF reporting that children fleeing Ukraine are at a high risk of child sexual exploitation and trafficking. This is an area where the UK and the rest of the world should be stepping in. Making sure that these poor people crossing the border are actually safe when they do so.

I am really concerned about this. There are already Eastern European women sex trafficked round here in small rural towns where I naively thought it wouldn't happen. The sex traffickers will be all over this, I am sure.

I mentioned on another thread that the Ukrainians had found a small Russian bot factory operating in Odesa and that pro-Russian bloggers from Odesa had turned out to be bots. They even came with CGI photographs. It wouldn't surprise me if grass-roots activism in Crimea turned out to be more of the astroturf variety.

That's why I don't like the private people taking in refugees into their own homes way of doing things. Its far too risky. Its better that refugees are housed by the authorities, in reception centres and supported apartments.

@EsmaCannonball

I mentioned on another thread that the Ukrainians had found a small Russian bot factory operating in Odesa and that pro-Russian bloggers from Odesa had turned out to be bots. They even came with CGI photographs. It wouldn't surprise me if grass-roots activism in Crimea turned out to be more of the astroturf variety.

Astroturf? lol, good line :D

But UK nationals don't tend to go and join a foreign military. Well some young nutters do.
Experience, distinguished in service but very low key, ex-military people go to work for a private security company (registered somewhere with even more tax haven status than UK). Their services are then offered to train foreign forces, especially in strategy. They are generally 40-60 and do mainly legitimate work with European Forces and a bit of well dodgy stuff. All perfectly legal.

Under the Montreux Convention, Turkey has declared that as there is a "live" conflict, no military vessels are allowed through the Bosporus/Dardanelles Straits. The only exception is if they are normally stationed in the Black Sea.

Apparently Russia tried to send 4 vessels through and was refused permission for 3 of them (the 4th could claim normally to be stationed in the Black Sea but since it would be going in unaccompanied, decided it no longer "needed" to get there).

So any bombardment/invasion from the sea by the Russians would have to be from the ships they currently have in the Black Sea and they can't be replaced

So it's a "one chance" naval advantage. No doubt (and I'm no military strategist) that's why they're so desperate to link up the land bridge before making a land and sea assault on Odessa.

On the other hand, it also means that no other country can send in ships to the Black Sea to support Ukraine

@PestorPeston

But UK nationals don't tend to go and join a foreign military. Well some young nutters do. Experience, distinguished in service but very low key, ex-military people go to work for a private security company (registered somewhere with even more tax haven status than UK). Their services are then offered to train foreign forces, especially in strategy. They are generally 40-60 and do mainly legitimate work with European Forces and a bit of well dodgy stuff. All perfectly legal.

I agree, they don't usually but it was an emotive call to arms by Ukraine, which will appeal to some, including ex-military who've gone on to do other things. If those who want to go apply to join the legion at their nearest Ukrainian Embassy like they're meant to hopefully the young nutters will get filtered out!

Russia’s official response to the cosmonauts is “yellow is sometimes just yellow” 😂😂