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Ukraine Invasion Part 14

999 replies

MagicFox · 17/03/2022 14:49

New thread

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MissConductUS · 19/03/2022 11:58

Appreciate your passion on this but without US backing, there is simply not the numbers of NATO troops to do this, i don't people quite realise the cuts we have had across Europe in defence..

I was in Namibia when UNTAG deployed, there needs to be a peace to keep first or one imposed such as in the ex Yugoslavia.

Correct on both counts. There needs to be a peace to keep for the UN to go in. They won't deploy into a hot conflict.

megynhelena · 19/03/2022 12:02

@EsmaCannonball

Assad visited the Crown Prince of UAE yesterday. An unpleasant alignment is being made.

I've been reading about the Russian treatment of people in the Donbas region and Crimea since 2014. Any peace treaty which concedes those regions to Russia is condemning people to a future of disappearances, rape, torture, executions and prison camps (and that's the best case scenario.) No wonder Ukrainians are fighting so hard.

Can you supply a source for this? As far as I am aware many people in Crimea and Donbas wanted independence, this is what the Minsk agreements were based on. However, the agreements have not been enforced and the allegations I am aware of is that there has been trench warfare, allegations of kidnapping and torture both sides, reports of significant human rights breaches by Azoz and the neo nazis on the Ukrainian side. Russia has been calling on the international community to take it more seriously and join to put an end to it. The Minsk agreements were supposed to put an end to it, but weren't enforced.

There have been something like 800 refugees from Ukraine to Russia because of the fighting apparently.

I think people need to bear in mind that Russia has since the 1990s (up to the point of this crisis) massively westernised, huge economic growth, greater social stability. This doesn't mean there are no problems, especially now, but it isn't the same as it was prior to 1990s.

ScrollingLeaves · 19/03/2022 12:07

“EsmaCannonball

Assad visited the Crown Prince of UAE yesterday. An unpleasant alignment is being made.

I've been reading about the Russian treatment of people in the Donbas region and Crimea since 2014. Any peace treaty which concedes those regions to Russia is condemning people to a future of disappearances, rape, torture, executions and prison camps (and that's the best case scenario.) No wonder Ukrainians are fighting so hard.“

I agree. And also apparently there was complete corruption and pillaging of resources till the whole economy was utterly degraded with no jobs or future .

ScrollingLeaves · 19/03/2022 12:11

I was not sure if anyone had mentioned these 40,000 Syrians being sent? This was in the Guardian yesterday.

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/18/syrians-join-russian-ranks-in-ukraine-as-putin-calls-in-assads-debt

Ijsbear · 19/03/2022 12:12

The judiciary have been hammered though and a significant proportion of the economic growth seems to have been siphoned off to the oligarchs.

A country needs an independent judiciary and civil service to resist the odd utterly corrupt ruler who will try to take power. Unfortunately Putin's had 20 years to apply his destructive genius to Russia.

As for Azoz, they are awful. But Wagner seem to be worse, from all that's reported.

When you look at Putin's track record Im not sure any calls for putting an end to the admittedly awful Azoz atrocities were genuine. The proven track record is that he consistently encourages atrocities himself (Chechnya, Syria) and that he claims others are doing exactly what he is doing.

The Azoz battalion needs to be disbanded - but after the war.

megynhelena · 19/03/2022 12:13

@EsmaCannonball just to also explain - the Minsk situation as I see it - Donbas is divided in half with Ukraine (with Azoz fighters and supported by US) on one side and separatists (supported by Russia) on the other side. What was envisaged by Minsk agreements was that the separatist side would be made independent or autonomous. The west side remain Ukraine. This appeared to reflect what the majority of people wanted at the time, in the separatist region and Zelensky has agreed in principle the independence of the East (again - this had already been agreed) but the detail hasn't been worked out. But this is a simplified version, there has been trench warfare there for years, the separatist region largely cut off making essential food supplies there a problem, and lawlessness now in the region making it hellish.

Crimea - Russia annexed it (assumed to be related to security interests, they had bases nearby) and neo nazis have fought it - so there has been fighting - there has also been significant investment by Russia in terms of new airport etc and also by one of the oligarchs - the people were initially happy with the annexation I believe but it has since turned into another war zone, and has been cut off from water supplies by Ukraine etc etc.

It is pretty complex.

Ijsbear · 19/03/2022 12:14

I read that 100,000 Ukrainians had gone to Russia and what is it now, 2million to Poland and other countries?

The 40,000 syrians are depressing. These will be battle hardened and entirely ruthless bastards.

ScrollingLeaves · 19/03/2022 12:15

Re East Ukraine This is where I read about it. I don’t know if this is reliable. Kamil Galeev.

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1504103672019513345.html

megynhelena · 19/03/2022 12:17

And also apparently there was complete corruption and pillaging of resources till the whole economy was utterly degraded with no jobs or future it is a lot more complicated than that. There had also been decades of corruption within Ukraine - well before the Crimea annexation and problems in Donbas so I am not sure why you think that was Russia? Russia had increased in economic stability during the time and complained that Ukraine with the NATO situation was destabilising?

Notonthestairs · 19/03/2022 12:17

www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/21/what-is-donbas-donetsk-luhansk-conflict/

Donetsk & Luhansk areas are incredibly complex and divided.

Separatists claim all of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions as their territory, but they control about one-third of the region — about 6,500 square miles, per some estimates — along the border with Russia. Moscow has recognized the separatists’ territorial claims, which extend to three times the size of the area they occupy. This includes areas under Ukrainian government control, such as the crucial Mariupol port on the Sea of Azov.

The most recent official census, in 2001, found that more than half of the population in Crimea and Donetsk identified Russian as their native language. But pinning eastern Ukraine as all largely Russian speaking, and the West dominated by Ukrainian, can be seen as an oversimplification. Many in the eastern countryside speak Ukrainian or a Russian-Ukrainian mix called Surzhyk.

Still, Putin has repeatedly invoked the idea of Donbas’s distinctive regional identity as a basis to “defend” its Russian-speaking people from a supposedly intolerant Ukraine. Separatists have also capitalized on this identity to fuel support and rebellion against Kyiv.
In Kyiv-controlled Donbas, a majority wants the separatist regions to return to Ukraine. In the separatist-controlled area, over half want to join Russia, either with or without some autonomous status, per a survey published in 2021.

EsmaCannonball · 19/03/2022 12:20

The source for the information on Russian treatment of people in Crimea and the Donbas is the UN Commission on Human Rights.

Ijsbear · 19/03/2022 12:26

Russia had increased in economic stability during the time and complained that Ukraine with the NATO situation was destabilising?

Um .... it didn't really. Plundering the resources into the hands of your friends is not economic stability. It's a return to the age old tendancy of a few people to concentrate all the wealth into their own hands.

As for Russia complaining that Nato has expanded Eastwards, correct me if I'm missing something but didn't all those countries request to join NATO themselves?

They wanted to! Their free choice after decades of imposed rule from outside. As far as I'm concerned, the principle of self-determination by a country means that if they want to join a different organisation from mine, that's their right. It might be dispiriting for me and my country, but if sovereignty and self-determination mean anything, we have to respect that other people might want different things than us.

megynhelena · 19/03/2022 12:26

When you look at Putin's track record Im not sure any calls for putting an end to the admittedly awful Azoz atrocities were genuine whatever you think of Putin it looks like what he cares about is economic and social stability in Russia, security for Russia. Azoz threatens that.

The proven track record is that he consistently encourages atrocities himself (Chechnya, Syria) and that he claims others are doing exactly what he is doing but he says exactly the same about the US and lists off the US foreign policy atrocities from the last 40 years or so. And US politicians say the same thing to eachother. I think there are a lot of shades of grey here, and whatever our personal views, a stable Russia is a lot better than an unstable Russia.

China and Russia are there whether you like it or not. It is not in our best interests to destabilise, is it?

Possibly that is why Russia put their offer to negotiate on the table on day 2 and have not withdrawn it or (I don't think) changed it. I don't think that has ever happened before has it? Their motivation to keep to it is both their own internal stability and also the fact that their closest allies are pushing for it.

EsmaCannonball · 19/03/2022 12:27

Ukraine had decades of corruption and instability because it was run as a Russian puppet state. That's what all this is about. They don't want to go back to that on steroids. It was bad enough when Russia just poisoned dissident Ukrainian politicians. Now they want to assassinate them or consign them to gulags.

Ijsbear · 19/03/2022 12:27

... because Putin's words and commitments have been so utterly reliable? We know that when he gives his word he keeps it?

Igotjelly · 19/03/2022 12:28

What a lovely gesture

Ukraine Invasion Part 14
Igotjelly · 19/03/2022 12:29

Pic not worked for me….again

Ukraine Invasion Part 14
Ijsbear · 19/03/2022 12:31

good god, what brave men.

EsmaCannonball · 19/03/2022 12:32

That's brave of those cosmonauts. There were also several Russian biologists who spoke out against Putin's claims about biolabs in Ukraine. Ukraine is fighting for the freedom of Russians too.

megynhelena · 19/03/2022 12:33

Um .... it didn't really. Plundering the resources into the hands of your friends is not economic stability. It's a return to the age old tendancy of a few people to concentrate all the wealth into their own hands look at the massive, massive growth of the Russian economy. Look at the social changes, look at the huge westernisation. You are talking about shady deals/inequitable wealth building by oligarchs. But this happening doesn't mean the other didn't. It is feasible both things happened.

As for Russia complaining that Nato has expanded Eastwards, correct me if I'm missing something but didn't all those countries request to join NATO themselves? NATO agreed in 1990 that they would not expand eastwards. At the time of other countries requesting joining, it could have been handled better with Russia by NATO.

Ijsbear · 19/03/2022 12:36

Yes, can see that overall a lot of growth did occur.

--

I'm afraid that even if things could have been handled better by the West it still does not for one microsecond justify invasion and atrocities. You can point fingers are the West (with some justification in many areas) but the fact remains that nothing justifies what Russia's done here.

Ijsbear · 19/03/2022 12:37

sorry - what Putin has done here. It's his war.

Igotjelly · 19/03/2022 12:37

Thing is it’s significant that people like those cosmonauts are speaking out, Russia is incredibly (and rightfully) proud of its space programme. In the context these people and their opinions really matter.

notimagain · 19/03/2022 12:38

@wonderfullife123

Re that missile and..

Agree -it's just classic intimidation tactics.

Yep, I’m hearing there’s some shrugging of shoulders elsewhere over what was portrayed…it would also help if the western MSM weren’t so breathless when they used “ hypersonic”.

ScrollingLeaves · 19/03/2022 12:41

“megynhelena

And also apparently there was complete corruption and pillaging of resources till the whole economy was utterly degraded with no jobs or future

“ it is a lot more complicated than that. There had also been decades of corruption within Ukraine - well before the Crimea annexation and problems in Donbas so I am not sure why you think that was Russia? Russia had increased in economic stability during the time and complained that Ukraine with the NATO situation was destabilising?“

@megyhelena

Re: “Why do you think that was Russia”

As I said, it may be a poor source, I don’t know for sure obviously, but I read some threads by Kamil Galeev as posted earlier:

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1504103672019513345.html

Below for example is an excerpt of what he wrote:

Nothing de-russified East Ukraine so quickly and irreversibly as the Donbass catastrophe. I'm not talking about the war, I'm talking about a general socio-economic conditions there. Under Russian control, Donbass fall under the rule of the criminal gangs, presented as the "levy"

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