Ukrainian invasion part 13

[Alexandra2001]

Seems to be required.

I've just read a really interesting article on The Atlantic by Brian Klaas which I thought I would share. It goes into how dictators like Putin end up making such catastrophic mistakes- one of the points he makes is that, the more a despot terrifies those close them to try and maintain control, the lower the quality of the information that gets to them, potentially to the extent that they don't want to tell the despot about a suspected coup.

www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/putin-dictator-trap-russia-ukraine/627064/

“LaDoIceVita

ScrollingLeaves
Can anyone here answer this question which I am puzzled by which is this: if by any chance Russia had invaded Poland, would it not have been just as impossible for NATO to implement a NFZ because of the risk of escalation?

This is just a general question, not rhetoric or sarcasm.”

”I think Poland is a bad choice for your question. I'm reasonably certain NATO states would honour the treaty. However, if it were Latvia, Estonia or some of the other small states we could well be listening to 'Yeah, but ... nukes'. If that happens, someone can call the Kremlin and ask if Putin would like the world as it is or gift wrapped.“

@LaDoIceVita
Thanks for your answer. I can see you understood what I meant.

I think that this present war has made the reality of honouring the NATO agreement and what that would mean, all too clear.

Really feel for liberal Russians. Very dark days for them.

@PestorPeston

Something weird may be happening in Belarus twitter.com/PavelLatushka/status/1504200509481173006

Might just be more noise and distraction, but has hit a few blue tick accounts.
Mutterings of a coup may be rather premature.

About this account. It needs some explanation.

The tweet reads:
Pavel Latushka @PavelLatushka
Belarus government official
Over the past 3️⃣ hours, about 3️⃣0️⃣ fighter jets, transport planes & helicopters lifted into the sky from #Belarusian airfields in Baranovichi, Gomel, Lida, Luninets
6️⃣ missiles launched near the city of Kalinkovichi. Explosions are heard in various cities of #Belarus.

1. This is NOT an official Belarus government account in the sense we would probably understand it. It has been marked by twitter as such because of a contested election result:
   In late October 2020, Pavel Latushko became the head of National Anti-crisis Management, a shadow government created by the Belarusian Coordination Council for the peaceful transfer of power following the 2020 Belarusian presidential election.

2. We can confirm this in another tweet on the same account:
   Pavel Latushka @PavelLatushka
   Belarus government official
   We state: #Belarus is an occupied territory, #Russia is an occupying country, & Lukashenka's regime is a #puppetgovernment. We call on foreign partners to give an appropriate assessment of the current situation.

3. The said activity has been confirmed by other sources as being a planned training exercise. So not unexpected. It has photos and hasn't targetted anything in particular. So I think we can ignore the idea of both a false flag operation AND a coup.

Its not. Its twitter confusing matters.

Another anti Belarus government campaigner has posted this today too:

Franak Viačorka @franakviacorka
Belarusians interrupt the movement over the railway to stop the deployment of Russia's equipment to Ukraine. Yesterday, they stopped the trains near the Belarus-Ukraine border. No one in the country supports the Russian invasion. Belarusians keep fighting by all possible means.

Now, I don't think I believe this, because (see above tweet) and how the Belarus opposition are clearly trying to stir up dissent and draw attention to it.

But yeah, interesting. And its taken me a while to fully understand what was going on, and why an account marked 'Belarus government official' was saying this. I get why twitter have done it, to delegitimatise the controlling disputed Lukashenko government. But if you don't have this knowledge, its very confusing.

@Papertyger

They aren't going to zombify Just like centuries of surfdom under the tsars didn't zombify them. Eventually they had a revolution. If Putin goes I don't think it's going to be so easy to Keep them repressed.

I'm not sure you are really proving your own point here very well.

They were kept under control in surfdom, for exactly how many years?

By your own argument they were zombified for centuries, before things reached breaking point...

www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0bqztzm
Ukrainecast
Podcasts are quite good.

@RTB what a post!! You are so articulate. I want to live peacefully and I want to protect my family's future, but we are deferring the issue and handing our kids a horrible legacy. 'Peace' in our time is a fabrication and false justification. Will our children thank us when we are back in the same situation but 'on steroids?'

Christo Grozev @christogrozev
Russian channels are veering between "we destroyed Azov HQ at the theater" and "we didn't do it, they themselves up". But the amount of pure evil - celebrating deaths of civilians - on Russian pro-war telegram channels is astounding.

Think about this.

People in Russia who post stuff like this, will be rewarded for it. Thus the incentive becomes for MORE people to do MORE of it.

People who complain about hardship and losing jobs and criticise the war will be punished. Thus the incentive becomes NOT to do it.

Its hard to get your head around but thats how Totalitarian States work and maintain control.

If you want to talk about deescalation, we also need to be thinking about this type of stuff.

The more internal power a Totalitarian State builds from within, the more unstable it effectively becomes, because its trying to almost find an enemy to eliminate. Its like an anti-purity spiral. Try to please the leader by demostating your commitment to the cause in ever increasing fanaticism. Out compete your neighbour, by showing how proud and local and committed you are to Mother Russia and Putin. And get a nice little job out of it, in desparate times.

This can become uncontainable because of the competitive ferver to go further and further.

I thought someone might mention that and I hoped the context, the dark ages, lack of information etc would be pretty obvious.

Even with the background of centuries in the dark ages being born into inherited slavery really, people realised their sorry position and did rise up Just as they have always done at so many points in history. Even in a time when info doesn't flow like it does now and most people couldn't even read.

Apparently the mayor of Melitopol was exchanged for nine Russian conscripts who were all teenagers. I can't help but wonder if those teenagers would have been better off staying as POWs.

We also have our own home-grown Lord Haw-Haw. Apparently there is a former Russia Today journalist called Graham Phillips (never heard of him) who is now a deliberately controversial YouTuber and he has rocked up in Ukraine wearing Russian insignia and with a Z drawn onto his luggage. To be honest he sounds like just a professional tosser but it's a reminder that we might have a few fifth columnists too.

The people of Russia in 2022 and beyond are not going to be zombified.

The most secretive hideous country is actually north Korea. Even there people are aware they are living under a lie. If this is something that seriously worries you red,start reading about North Korea.

The danger with Russia if this drags on is anger and poverty and then a repetition of the Germany Hitler abused.
But even then I think the appetite is surely going to be democracy.
They tried and Putin crushed it I don't think they will Risk loosing it again if he goes.

Red that is ramping up now but it's already been in place for years!
It's been under a dictator for years.
It's been like that under communism they all know the ropes and how fake it is!

I know there are posters here who thinks how people feel and think soley comes from the media but it really doesn't in real life.
Yes, it's part of the picture but only a part.

From the Institute for the Study of War, 16th March.

Key Takeaways

Russia is deploying reserves from Armenia and South Ossetia and cohering new battalion tactical groups (BTGs) from the remnants of units lost early in the invasion. These reinforcements will likely face equal or greater command and logistics difficulties to current frontline Russian units.
President Zelensky created a new joint military-civilian headquarters responsible for the defense of Kyiv on March 15.
Russian forces conducted several failed attacks northwest of Kyiv and no offensive operations northeast of Kyiv on March 16.
Russian forces continue to shell civilian areas of Kharkiv, but will be unlikely to force the city to surrender without encircling it—which Russian forces appear unable to achieve.
Russian forces continued to reduce the Mariupol pocket on March 16. Russian forces continue to commit war crimes in the city, targeting refugees and civilian infrastructure.
Ukrainian Forces claimed to have killed the commander of the 8th Combined Arms Army’s 150th Motor Rifle Division near Mariupol on March 15. If confirmed, Miyaev would be the fourth Russian general officer killed in Ukraine; his death would be a major blow to the 150th Motor Rifle Division, Russia’s principal maneuver unit in Donbas.
Russian warships shelled areas of Odesa Oblast on March 16 but Russian Naval Infantry remain unlikely to conduct an unsupported amphibious landing.

Twitter's un verified: lavrofs place on way to Beijing returns to Moscow?

Two LONG threads by Kamil Galeev @kamilkazani on the idea of desescalation and how western preference for desescalation potentially works against us. Really worth a follow.

In essence it comes from the idea that the other party WANTS peace and a settlement. This isn't necessarily true. Especially if you are quite happy blowing up buildings marked 'children'.

1st Thread - this one focus on occupied ukrainian territory and the employment of low class thugs to keep control. (Worth reading in reference to the reward/punishment dynamic being upside down under totalitarianism).
twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1504103672019513345
Key

2nd Thread - this one is better in my opinion. It explains the 'essence of Putinism' and how its upside down logic work. And how this is problematic on the subject of desecalation has led to a cycle of ecalate, consolidate, agressive progress. Wars are not necessarily for military gain but for political gain.
twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1503056091336384512

Certainly food for thought even if you disagree.

Reuters: three Panamanian ships hit during Russian attack in the Black Sea region. One ship sunk.

Its about how do you break the cycle? There must BE a way. But HOW? Thats where thoughts need to be going. How do you rapidly deprogramme someone who has been in a cult? How do you rapidly encourage critical thinking? How do you empower Russians not to 'zombify'?

Thanks @RTB, for helping me to see more deeply into what's happening on these sterling threads. Those questions ending your post are crucial to our global future, and that's what's at stake in stark relief as a result of the last 3 weeks. Almost everyone posting here has a sense of that and the huge insecurity it entails. No wonder many of us are expressing concerns and disclosing our anxieties - those crucial questions have no easy answers. In fact, as I think you bravely acknowledge by implication, the answers may well be nowhere on the horizon and yet they have to be earnestly explored by those holding the instruments of power. If enough of that isn't happening right now, without ceasing, in the right places, so much will be lost. Of course some of the deep contradictions in Western geopolitics have to be exposed and owned, and the questions will only be answered if the will is there to face those contradictions now, somehow. People's instinct on these threads is to attempt some of that questioning and searching for and among themselves, and that is disturbing to read at times. If it wasn't, we'd be kidding ourselves. You're bang on, and I really appreciate that you took my last post in the spirit it was intended

Because yes, I'm quietly s*ting myself here (and by no means only for myself). It wasn't fair of me to pretend otherwise!

I have a question, not sure if it's possible to answer it but here goes anyway. Is it at all possible that Putin intends/intended to stop at Ukraine because of its particular history (as he sees it) when compared with other ex-Soviet republics? Or is it more likely that Ukraine, in his view, is just the latest in a series that doesn't/can't end there? Either way, it feels as though he calculated that Ukraine wouldn't get any direct support from NATO and sprang a trap for the alliance.

@eglantine7

I can understand the terrible anxiety because I was wreck in the first week. So, it appears Nazanin was freed because the 400 million debt going back to the Iran/ Iraq war days was settled. So Britain is now open to buying Iran oil and possibly gas. Hmm geopolitics

Not that different from the Venuzalan prisoner release with the US. It's a case of pick your poison and Russia is (not) the flavour of the month.

I am really looking forward to a world where oil is no longer the King commodity.

I wonder if the ships from Panama were hit accidentally or if the Russians thought they were supplying Ukraine?

I don't understand this thread.

Who here has actually been to or has any connection to Ukraine? Anyone?

@Snorkelface

I don't understand this thread.

Who here has actually been to or has any connection to Ukraine? Anyone?

What's that got to do with anything?

We are all connected to Ukraine, all of us. You too, pp.

@Snorkelface

I don't understand this thread.

Who here has actually been to or has any connection to Ukraine? Anyone?

Which part do you need help understanding?

What is this thread about?