Ukrainian invasion part 13

[Alexandra2001]

Seems to be required.

@Ijsbear

@ the military folk on here

Jack Detsch
@JackDetsch
·
17h
NEW: U.S. assesses that Russia has roughly 90 percent of combat power STILL available nearly 3 weeks after invading Ukraine: senior U.S. defense official.

Ukraine has about the same about the same amount, officials said.

losing 10% doesn't sound all that much to untrained me but I won't be seeing the implications. What does it mean in practise, does anyone know?

Not sure what that means TBH..depends on what metrics are being used, etc..

I'm not sure what I make of the supposed FSB documents leaked to a Russian dissident and being translated on Twitter by Igor Sushko. A lot of people seem to be accepting their authenticity and some of the information in them has actually been borne out in the last few days. They are claiming that the Russians are strategizing to claim the actions that have been taken by the West are a declaration of war, to use that as an excuse to threaten expansion of the war beyond Ukraine in the expectation that the West will abandon Ukraine and pressure it to make concessions, but then to continue to threaten war anyway until the West itself makes big concessions. I'm finding Sushko's threads interesting but, because I know nothing about him and his motivations, I am also wary of them.

[quote BringBackCoffeeCreams]Here's an online version of the book in English if anyone is interestd.

rib.msb.se/filer/pdf/28706.pdf[/quote]
Very interesting, especially that the duty to defence is from 16 years old rather than 18, though I suppose the 16 and 17 years olds aren't going to be conscripted into military service but would do their defence duty in the civil areas.
We don't get a leaflet like that in Finland, just get directed to the 72 hour preparedness website 72hours.fi/#varaudu its got lots of useful information in English though

@EsmaCannonball

I'm not sure what I make of the supposed FSB documents leaked to a Russian dissident and being translated on Twitter by Igor Sushko

I’ve seen some of them, I’m highly sceptical.

huh, ok notimagain

---

How will they justify this?!

They don't have to. They will deny it, claim it's a Ukrainian hit or simply shrug. The only moral war that's being waged is to try to persuade the Russian public They Are The Good Guys, for morale. All the Russian media needs to do is not report it.

@Ijsbear

@ the military folk on here

Jack Detsch
@JackDetsch
·
17h
NEW: U.S. assesses that Russia has roughly 90 percent of combat power STILL available nearly 3 weeks after invading Ukraine: senior U.S. defense official.

Ukraine has about the same about the same amount, officials said.

losing 10% doesn't sound all that much to untrained me but I won't be seeing the implications. What does it mean in practise, does anyone know?

I came across stuff relevant to this question and posted on the last page of the last thread:

Mike Adams @HighlandScouse
Here's an excellent explanation of why 10% losses can be extremely serious for the Russian force operating using BTGs (Battalion Tactical Groups)
twitter.com/raguileramx/status/1499153976646074368

A very military technical explanation which largely goes over my head, but I think says 'The way Russians set up their army means they can't attack very well after they lose a certain % of their force. Instead they get stuck and lack a flexibility to continue, but remain reasonably good defensively. They are organised in this way to have Big Guns that Fire Lots - more firepower than a western battalion. So they get attacked, get stuck but can still defend and blow up lots of shit.' Which looks a lot like whats happening.

I wonder as well, could it be possible that Zelensky asking for NFZ and MIG's be somewhat of a distraction to get other weapons in unnoticed?

Please can some explain about the Polish planes?
I understand why we cannot help with a no fly zone.
I also under why we can't give them planes.
But can't we sell them planes? For a nominal fee?
Russia is buying armoury. Why can't Ukraine?

@holliem91

I wonder as well, could it be possible that Zelensky asking for NFZ and MIG's be somewhat of a distraction to get other weapons in unnoticed?

No.

Same post on last thread identified that Russia had air supremacy in a number of key areas and the Ukrainians were gradually losing this part of the war, though their drones had been a massive success.

What was key to Russia in Syria (and US in Afghanistan and Iraq) was air supremacy.

Once they had that, everything else largely followed.

So asking for MiGs isn't a distraction.

I personally think we should do it at this point and I hope it happens before its too late tbh. Time is of the essence.

@EsmaCannonball

Media reporting that Russians fired on a civilian bread queue in Chernihiv. At least ten people dead. This reminds me of Sarajevo.

This makes me sick. There’s talk of the Russian men being conscripted and this isn’t what they signed up for etc, making us feel they have been forced into something they don’t want etc. This was done by someone who clearly has no morals, is a downright psycho who is loving what they are doing and clearly isn’t the poor boy who has no idea what’s going on. Disgusting person no one would have forced his hand to do that, hope they get what’s coming to them

@strawberriesarenot

Please can some explain about the Polish planes? I understand why we cannot help with a no fly zone. I also under why we can't give them planes. But can't we sell them planes? For a nominal fee? Russia is buying armoury. Why can't Ukraine?

A no fly zone was ineffective in other conflicts to a degree.

A no fly zone would work against Ukraine - drones fly. Drones have been one of their best wins.

Also a no fly zone means you have planes flying around with a responsibility to shoot shit if they see it. That means shooting down Russians. NATO / EU / UN deliberately shooting down Russians.

A no fly zone does nothing against tanks and missile launchers which are the thing doing most damage in Ukraine.

Its a sound bite solution for politicians who don't know what the fuck they are talking about, but the public will appreciate it.

Long and short of it is, it won't help the Ukrainians. When the Ukrainians are saying they need MiGs, its for a reason. They know the battle. Listen to the Ukrainians not politicians in the US or Europe.

Thank you.
I think I worded my question badly.
I understand completely about the no fly zone.

What I don't understand is why the Polish planes cannot be sold to Ukraine.

@EsmaCannonball

Media reporting that Russians fired on a civilian bread queue in Chernihiv. At least ten people dead. This reminds me of Sarajevo.

Its a tactic used explicitly by the Russians in Syria.

Read up on Syria. Lots of follows on twitter with knowledge.

RTB I hope the Ukrainians get the planes too, if it's going to make a big difference.

@AgnesWestern I am thinking about the Ukraine war but I don't talk that much about it in real life, maybe the people you know are the same? It is worrying, mostly I'm finding seeing pictures and stories of the atrocities very upsetting and I feel better when I do practical things like donating to DEC etc and cutting energy use, whilst trying to focus on the good things in everyday life. I don't think the Ukrainians surrendering will make us safer, it will just make Putin more powerful. I really hope they win, they have suffered so much already.

Any guesses as to what the new global order will look like as a result of this? I keep seeing this term being bandied around but am confused about what it assumes. And a bit scared to ask

@EsmaCannonball

I'm not sure what I make of the supposed FSB documents leaked to a Russian dissident and being translated on Twitter by Igor Sushko. A lot of people seem to be accepting their authenticity and some of the information in them has actually been borne out in the last few days. They are claiming that the Russians are strategizing to claim the actions that have been taken by the West are a declaration of war, to use that as an excuse to threaten expansion of the war beyond Ukraine in the expectation that the West will abandon Ukraine and pressure it to make concessions, but then to continue to threaten war anyway until the West itself makes big concessions. I'm finding Sushko's threads interesting but, because I know nothing about him and his motivations, I am also wary of them.

That makes me feel frightened

@MagicFox

Any guesses as to what the new global order will look like as a result of this? I keep seeing this term being bandied around but am confused about what it assumes. And a bit scared to ask

My advice is probably not to ask. You won't like any of the replies. The more favourable ones you will dismiss anyway because they aren't the scary ones that catch your attention.

The US needs to do some stepping up at this point imho. Its bottling it. The sanctions and diplomacy have pretty much gone as far as they can.

Putin is building a totalitarian aggrieved state up now. The implications of this, even with an immediate cease fire and complete withdrawal from Ukraine are far reaching.

Scenarios that go on from that, as your start point aren't good for your anxiety levels.

I’m sorry if this comes over badly it isn’t intended to, but it just feels to me a bit…inappropriate for us on the uk in safety to be claiming how scared we are. I get that it’s disconcerting with the threat of nuclear etc, but there are many, many leaders internationally working had to make sure things don’t escalate any further. I really think the concern needs to be more directed at Ukraine. Don’t want a debate or to offend anyone

RedToothBrush

Thank you.
I think I worded my question badly.
I understand completely about the no fly zone.

What I don't understand is why the Polish planes cannot be sold to Ukraine.

Well i hadn't read the latest Igor Sushko tweets until after my last post just.

To put it bluntly theres a single tweet in that which encapsulates the entire western problem with its response now:

Current Russia has no survival outside of a military expansion regime.

Note the countries who are saying the same. Doing things like say 'send the planes and visiting). This is what Zelensky himself is saying.

Note those who are not.

So yeah, probs best not thinking about it too much.

@MagicFox

Me too. I was feeling optimistic about this coming to an end this morning.
Naive probably.

@MagicFox

Any guesses as to what the new global order will look like as a result of this? I keep seeing this term being bandied around but am confused about what it assumes. And a bit scared to ask

Whatever it ends up like, it will be 1000 miles from what was imagined even a year ago. Let alone 6.

Just a thought.

@RedToothBrush

Well i hadn't read the latest Igor Sushko tweets until after my last post just.

To put it bluntly theres a single tweet in that which encapsulates the entire western problem with its response now:

Current Russia has no survival outside of a military expansion regime.

Note the countries who are saying the same. Doing things like say 'send the planes and visiting). This is what Zelensky himself is saying.

Note those who are not.

So yeah, probs best not thinking about it too much.

Sorry to be dim, but what does this mean?

I just read how Robert Rinder has managed to rescue two ladies from Ukraine.) They are relations of his Strictly dance partner)
I think he has shown great courage . Many of us would be sympathetic and not do anything.He.took some risks undoubtedly.

It terms of the new world order, it's hhappening regardless of the outcome of this war. It's either autocracies versus democracies with Russia having won the war in Ukraine, or autocracies versus democracies with Russia having lost the war. I'd prefer the latter.