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Ukrainian invasion part 13

999 replies

Alexandra2001 · 15/03/2022 07:40

Seems to be required.

OP posts:
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18
Igotjelly · 16/03/2022 12:47

@elephantmarchingin

Also feeling more negative about peace talks today on bbc it has reported 'An advisor to Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that a Russian proposal that Ukraine adopts an Austrian style neutrality is unacceptable to the country. Mykhailo Podoliak, a member of the Ukrainian negotiating team, told local media any peace deal must be on Ukrainian terms that protect its sovereignty. "We understand the attempt of our partners to remain proactive in the negotiation process," Podoliak said. "Hence the words about the" Swedish" or "Austrian model" of neutrality. But Ukraine is now in a state of direct war with Russia." "Therefore, the model can only be "Ukrainian" and only with legally verified security guarantees. And no other models or options." Earlier this morning, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia was open to a peace deal that saw a neutral Ukraine maintain its own army and navy, along the lines of Austria or Sweden.'
I suspect it’s quite nuanced. His point is that a cut and paste ‘Swedish’ of ‘Austrian’ agreement wouldn’t be acceptable because the material facts are different. He talks about it needing to be a ‘Ukrainian ’ deal - so bespoke to the situation.
MarshaBradyo · 16/03/2022 12:47

@elephantmarchingin

Hmmm once again Zelenskyy is asking the following 'Zelensky’s latest requests – a no-fly zone and Nato-supplied fighter jets – make such a prospect more likely.'

Asked US public to lobby for this to happen.

I wonder how this will go

Sounds very concerning

elephantmarchingin · 16/03/2022 12:48

@MarshaBradyo I do feel by asking this he really is trying to bring us into the war

Igotjelly · 16/03/2022 12:51

Many analysts seem to think it’s a calculated negotiating tactic. He’s asking for something he knows he won’t get.

MarshaBradyo · 16/03/2022 12:52

Asking Congress I’m ok with but rallying public momentum concerns me more.

Any direct US insight greatly appreciated!

wonderfullife123 · 16/03/2022 12:54

Same @MarshaBradyo . Very worrying.

shreddednips · 16/03/2022 12:56

@elephantmarchingin

Also feeling more negative about peace talks today on bbc it has reported 'An advisor to Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has said that a Russian proposal that Ukraine adopts an Austrian style neutrality is unacceptable to the country. Mykhailo Podoliak, a member of the Ukrainian negotiating team, told local media any peace deal must be on Ukrainian terms that protect its sovereignty. "We understand the attempt of our partners to remain proactive in the negotiation process," Podoliak said. "Hence the words about the" Swedish" or "Austrian model" of neutrality. But Ukraine is now in a state of direct war with Russia." "Therefore, the model can only be "Ukrainian" and only with legally verified security guarantees. And no other models or options." Earlier this morning, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia was open to a peace deal that saw a neutral Ukraine maintain its own army and navy, along the lines of Austria or Sweden.'
I'm not feeling so pessimistic, Russia has already budged a considerable way from its position at the start of the invasion. It's sensible of Ukraine to resist an Austria-style version of neutrality because nobody (hopefully) is fomenting designs on its sovereignty. The two sides are edging closer together. I don't think this will be resolved in the next few days, but I do still hold out hope that protracting this any further will become so unfeasible to Russia that it will have no choice but to budge further.

I can see potential further pressure gathering on Russia in the days to come. At some point, it's going to become impossible to cover up the number of Russian soldier's killed, no matter how much propaganda is pumped out. For all the talk of China stepping in with support, I don't think they've actually done so have they?

holliem91 · 16/03/2022 12:58

@elephantmarchingin

Of course he wants to bring us into the war!

holliem91 · 16/03/2022 13:00

@Igotjelly

I hope so! Like other pp's have said he has to be seen to try but I just hope people stay level headed.

shreddednips · 16/03/2022 13:00

@MarshaBradyo

Asking Congress I’m ok with but rallying public momentum concerns me more.

Any direct US insight greatly appreciated!

I have no direct insight, but I can't see Biden doing anything that goes against intelligence and that isn't in America's interests. There will be an awful lot of information that the public isn't party to.

I'm not too worried about this. I just can't see NATO implementing a no-fly zone. The public pressure might induce the US to go further with its support but short of a no-fly zone, which I suppose could be what he's aiming for.

holliem91 · 16/03/2022 13:01

@shreddednips

That's reassuring to hear coming from you. No I don't think China have done anything as of yet.

Ijsbear · 16/03/2022 13:02

[quote elephantmarchingin]@MarshaBradyo I do feel by asking this he really is trying to bring us into the war[/quote]
The man's desperate. He's trying to keep his country free and probably desperately trying to do something to tip the Mariupol situation into a better one for the citizens.

Good air cover would make a huge difference to him. He may also be using asking as a tactical thing, but you know. Yes, he wants support and he wants as much as he can get!

Igotjelly · 16/03/2022 13:03

Got to say I agree with @shreddednips I’d be very surprised if an address to Congress, no matter how emotive, changed NATO’s fundamental position.

MarshaBradyo · 16/03/2022 13:03

Shredded yes you’re likely right. You’ve talked me down, thanks

afternoonteawithcake · 16/03/2022 13:03

I have been following since thread 1, first time commenting. I am more of a lurker than contributor, however I wanted to ask
@shreddednips how has Russia budged from its original position? I believe they are still asking for the same things they were before the war started?

wonderfullife123 · 16/03/2022 13:04

In light of Blair's comments about Biden showing his hand too quickly, Zelensky's strong lobbying is creating that lost ambiguity and uncertainty and pressure.... If that makes any sense.

Ijsbear · 16/03/2022 13:07

@ the military folk on here

Jack Detsch
@JackDetsch
·
17h
NEW: U.S. assesses that Russia has roughly 90 percent of combat power STILL available nearly 3 weeks after invading Ukraine: senior U.S. defense official.

Ukraine has about the same about the same amount, officials said.

losing 10% doesn't sound all that much to untrained me but I won't be seeing the implications. What does it mean in practise, does anyone know?

shreddednips · 16/03/2022 13:07

[quote holliem91]@shreddednips

That's reassuring to hear coming from you. No I don't think China have done anything as of yet. [/quote]
I'm trying not to be naive, I don't trust Putin to act in good faith for one second. I doubt he has any humanitarian interest in agreeing peace, but he does have to work within some practical constraints.

I think it's too hopeful to believe this will be resolved very soon, sadly for Ukraine I think the economic and practical pressure will have to mount still higher on Russia, and that will take time. But there has been a change in stance.

Maybe I'm being overly optimistic, I'm rather predisposed in that direction 😆

MarshaBradyo · 16/03/2022 13:08

@Igotjelly

Got to say I agree with *@shreddednips* I’d be very surprised if an address to Congress, no matter how emotive, changed NATO’s fundamental position.
I agree with you

It was more the creating public momentum that got to me as we don’t have the information or ability to make good decisions

But I think Shredded is right still this won’t impact on Biden’s stance

EsmaCannonball · 16/03/2022 13:10

Media reporting that Russians fired on a civilian bread queue in Chernihiv. At least ten people dead. This reminds me of Sarajevo.

MagicFox · 16/03/2022 13:18

@EsmaCannonball

Media reporting that Russians fired on a civilian bread queue in Chernihiv. At least ten people dead. This reminds me of Sarajevo.

How will they justify this?!

shreddednips · 16/03/2022 13:18

@afternoonteawithcake

I have been following since thread 1, first time commenting. I am more of a lurker than contributor, however I wanted to ask *@shreddednips* how has Russia budged from its original position? I believe they are still asking for the same things they were before the war started?
Well, apparently Russia has stopped demanding during negotiations that Ukraine surrenders. Reports from Ukraine say that Russia's demands are gradually becoming more 'realistic' although I don't know exactly what's meant by that.
AgnesWestern · 16/03/2022 13:18

My heart just sunk when I read about Zelensky and the no fly zone. I really hope this doesn’t happen. I just don’t see how it’ll happen now…maybe I’m wrong, but I think we need to de-escalate not escalate at this point.

I was feeling optimistic about peace talks.

afternoonteawithcake · 16/03/2022 13:23

Thank you @shreddednips I hadn't seen that.

Everyday the Ukrainians hold on the stronger their position becomes. Fingers crossed an agreement can be made soon and Putin thinks twice about doing this again to another country.

PestorPeston · 16/03/2022 13:26

What happened with Chernobyl last time. Of course it would all depend on the weather.
www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-03/chernobyls-radioactive-legacy-zombie-reactors-an-invisible-enemy/11432430

Ukraine informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) today that the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) had been re-connected to the national electricity grid and no longer relied on emergency diesel generators for power.
www.iaea.org/newscenter/pressreleases/update-22-iaea-director-general-statement-on-situation-in-ukraine

So at the moment it is looking OK